원문 보기
I think since I said that we could take out the rivaling 1929 and 2000 I think we've gone way past that there are examples of large-scale craziness and meme investing etc for which there is simply no parallel in 1929 even or or 2000 2000 had pet.coms and they were kind of glorious but they were scores of millions or a few hundred million we have crazy things now that are billions and in some cases tens of billions to to start at the top with my own favorite quantumscape because we invested eight years ago when it was three years old quantumscape is a research lab came public through one of these Infamous spacs quite recently but wonderful as they are at research they came public with four years still to run before they have a dollar of Revenue and they came at 10 as always is the case by December January they were 132 and at 132 my investment which coincidentally was the biggest investment I had ever made had become hundreds of millions at 10 I had made four times my money which is very good indeed but not enough to write home to your mother but at 130 it was 13 times 4.
52 times my investment which was the largest ever it was bigger than the market cap of GM bigger than the market cap of Panasonic to talk battery and it still had four years to run before it had a dollar of anything the irony of course was I'd been sounding off about specs as an invention of the devil designed to lure innocent investors onto the rocks and there I am having this giant investment in its back and the second irony was I was holding forth that we would be lucky to reach June the first before the bubble broke we were not allowed to sell until approximately June the first because we were locked up and during that lock-up we watched it go down from 132 to 25.
so we were the most impressive speculation I think there is nothing like that at scale even adjusted for current dollars in 1929 the market is a self-correcting mechanism but it's a little wonky in the time it takes sometimes it corrects pretty quickly and sometimes it corrects incredibly slowly if you go back to 2000 which is the day the previous leader in speculation let's say what happened there is the market peaked in March of 2000 between March and September the pet.com basically went out of business the internet stocks basically went down 80 percent but the whole.com the whole TMT Bubble Burst and the industry which had been 30 of the market declined by 50 right the s p was unchanged and you could have said during that five month six month window oh isn't that healthy they're selling the flakiest pet doctors and they're buying a Coca-Cola what's not to like about that that's exactly what happened I like to think of them as pessimism termites they add through the craziest first and then the junior growth stocks and then the intermediate growth stocks and then finally Cisco which was for eight minutes or so the biggest company in the world by market cap and they were all down collectively fifty percent and so for the s p to be flat in September and meant that the balance of the market was up 17 so that looked incredibly healthy but then the termites reached the broad market and the entire 70 rolled over and fell 50 in two years the thing about the underpinnings is they always look terrific 1929 the market didn't Peak when they thought the underpinnings were terrible they peaked when the Market's enthusiasm for the underpinnings was approximately the highest it had ever been in history in 2000 in March the world uniformly including the boss of the Federal Reserve Ali Greenspan they all thought the system had never been better at the top of the housing bubble in 07 banagi and the boys thought the U.S housing market had never declined unquote it merely reflected a strong U.S economy they have never gotten it right the Federal Reserve in particular has never had a clue about asset bubbles it doesn't even address it they act as if they don't exist except on the upside they occasionally take credit for the wealth effect helping the economy along and it does there is an income effect and it does help the economy alone and Greenspan Bernanke and Yellen all took credit explicitly for helping the economy along what they never did is they never took discredit for the reverse side the market has been reverting mechanism and eventually it goes back to a fair price and when it went back in 2001 2002 it had a dreadful negative income effect when the housing market collapsed and it took the equity Market with it it had a double-pronged negative effect on the economy so it had a much bigger impact on the economy than had occurred in 2000 and this time we're really playing with fire because this time unlike 2000 we have an overpriced bond market Tim Grant would argue the most overpriced in four thousand years we have in my opinion and that of many other bubbles the most overpriced U.S Equity Market in history we have a housing market that three weeks ago reached the same multiple of median family income as it did in 2006 at the peak of the housing bubble and we have Commodities that have recently run amok so this is the first time we've ever risked three and a half asset classes bubbling at the same time if and when we reach a period of pessimism the potential unraveling in terms of perceived wealth is much greater this time than it will have ever been before
Comments 0