저자: Red Pill Investing · 외국인
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I don't think people understand there's a hundred percent correlation with what happens to a company's earnings over several years and what happens to the stock if the company McDonald's has done very well as a company the stock is done very well people worry about too much money supply what's happened the price of oil who's the president who's being nominated for the Supreme Court the ozone layer it has nothing to do McDonald's earnings go up the next 10 years the stock will go but what they will say to you Peter they're telling you that these other things influence the amount of earnings of a particular company if we're in a recession people are not going to spend as much money on going to the movies or whatever they do right and and therefore you got to pay attention to these other things because they impact on Earth they are very important but you have no idea of knowing what they're going to do Alan Greenspan's the head of the Federal Reserve right he cannot predict interest rates he cannot predict what long-term interest rates are going to be one year from now two years from now three years he's even surprised how low they are now so how am I supposed to demonstrate how am I supposed to predict the economy you certainly remember the recession of 82 yes 1982 with a 20 crime rate 14 unemployment 12 inflation I don't remember anybody telling me in 1980 or 81 that was going to happen all of a sudden we had the worst recession since the depression I didn't read about in the paper so it's crazy to think about these things here's a quote from you I own Dunkin Donuts when you own Dunkin Donuts you don't have to worry about Korean imports you don't have to worry about M2 or M3 these are money supply figures this is the way you make money if you don't understand what the company does you should not be in it if you could predict the stock market you could predict the economy you could predict interest rates if you go buy the wrong stocks you're going to lose half your money anyway I'm saying people have natural advantages let's say what you do for a living is you're involved in the restaurant industry you supply paper products you supply kitchen equipment you help build restaurants you saw McDonald's you saw chichis you saw Chili's you saw Cracker Barrel you saw Dunkin Donuts Kentucky Fried Chicken Taco Bell these were 40 fold they made 40 to 50 times your money you don't need to make that kind of money many times your life right that's all you had to do was follow the restaurant industry people are in Industries they're in the publishing industry they're in the chemical industry the paper why don't they just stay with an industry you only need a few stocks a decade how many good stocks you need a life on instead people they're in the restaurant industry they're buying biotechnology stocks the people in the chemical industry are buying oil stocks it's absolutely absurd people don't understand their natural advantages and they don't use them that's bad number one but worse number two if you don't think you're a good ice skater or if you're convinced you're not a good cellist you're not going out and try it but people are buying stocks anyway they're not discouraged they just think it's a gamble so therefore they go forward bet on one stock for a week and a half and it goes up they made two dollars on it then they sell it and they buy something else when three years is over all they've done is generate a lot of commissions they've probably lost money that's a mistake so your advice is what if you don't understand a company if you can't explain it to a 10 year old in two minutes or less don't own it because when it goes down let's say the stock goes down too you won't understand what's going on what do you do do you buy more chances are your broker doesn't either he or she certainly doesn't know about it I mean who knows what Advance what all these things are at Auto act planes and mega flops who knows what all is so buy what you know Buy in your industry buy what you know buy locals so suppose you you don't have an industry I mean you know you don't really well you buy Local Company is 10 years after Walnut went public you could have bought the stock and made 50 times your money on it 50 times but I'm saying let's say you were in a town they came into it and they said boy these prices are great they're doing terrific I like the bargains you checked it out you spent a little bit of work on it I mean people are very careful they when they buy a dishwasher they do some research they'll put ten thousand dollars in some stock they hear on a bus so if you did a little bit of research you say Walmart's only 10 of the country they're not even saturated there why can't they go to the rest of the country the most important organ is the stock it's not the brain on the way to work the amount of bad news you can hear is almost infinite now the question is can you take that do you really have faith that 10 years 20 years 30 years from now Common Stocks a place to be if you believe in that you should have some money in Equity Funds it's a question what's your tolerance for pain the stock market's a very good place to be I can toss a coin now it's gonna be lower in two years from now higher I don't know more people lost money waiting for Corrections anticipating Corrections than the actual Corrections well you ought to look in the mirror every day and say what am I going to do if my goes down 10 what do you do if it goes down 20.
am I going to sell am I going to get out that's your answer you should be reducing it today well hey this perfect record I think the 13 years of ram Magellan the market went down nine times ten percent or more I had a perfect record I went down more than the market every time went down went down more I just didn't worry about it the point is you would you say to yourself do I need this money in a year do I need this money in two years if I need this money in three years longer term stock market's been the best place to be the last 10 years last 30 years last 130 years but if you need the money in one or two years you shouldn't be buying stocks anybody that's investing in the stock market that's understand you buy a company these are not lottery tickets these behind every stock there's a Company the company does well over time the stocks are dwelling and vice versa you have to look at the company that's what you're researching that's what you do at Valley that's what I do
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