2008 Was NOTHING Compared To This! - Peter Schiff - "Worse Crash Than 2008 Is Coming!"

요약 보기

한 줄 결론: 피터 시프는 연준이 결국 금리 인상을 멈추고(피벗) 피벗 후 달러 위기가 올 것이라며, 달러 자산 보유자에게 손실이 집중된다고 본다. 2008년과의 비교: 2008년 위기는 부실 주택담보대출 문제였지만, 현재 부채 규모는 당시보다 한 자릿수 이상 커졌다고 주장한다. 은행·예금자 리스크: 2008년처럼 구제금융(TARP 2.0)은 없을 것이며, 대형 은행 파산 시 FDIC 재원이 부족해 예금자도 손실을 볼 수 있다고 주장한다. 연준 피벗 전망: 인플레이션이 높음에도 금융위기 방지를 위해 연준이 피벗할 것으로 본다. 이 과정에서 국채(소버린 부채) 위기와 달러 위기가 나타난다는 시나리오다. 달러 약세와 금 전망: 현재 인플레 초기에는 투자자들이 연준의 통제력을 과신해 달러가 강세지만, 인플레이션이 2%를 훨씬 웃돌 것이라는 현실을 깨닫는 순간 달러가 급락하고 금·은이 크게 오를 것이라고 주장한다. 미국 국채·달러 보유자 손실: 미국 국채나 달러 표시 채권, 달러 현금을 보유한 사람들이 가장 큰 손실을 입는다고 본다. 금 가격이 달러 기준으로 너무 비싸져 살 수 없게 될 것이라는 점도 언급한다. 1971년 사례 비교: 닉슨의 금태환 중단(1971년)으로 달러 가치가 금 대비 급락하고 금값이 35달러에서 850달러로 뛰었던 역사를 들어, 현재 국채 디폴트가 형태만 다를 뿐 유사한 결과를 낳을 수 있다고 강조한다. 기축통화 지위 상실 리스크: 달러가 기축통화 지위를 잃으면 미국은 달러 수요에 기대 생산 없이 소비하던 '무임승차'가 끝나며 경제에 큰 변화가 올 것이라고 본다. 출연자 전망 요약: 시프는 강한 약달러·금 상승 쪽 입장으로, 시기는 명시하지 않았다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. well I think the nature of this financial crisis is going to be a lot different than the one we had in 2008 because I don't think the FED is going to allow it that's one of the reasons I believe that Powell is going to Pivot because if the FED does keep raising rates we will have a financial crisis that looks like 2008 only much worse because 2008 was about bad debt it was about people tomorrow borrowed money and they couldn't pay it back and the collateral for the loans was no good because it was real estate and prices went down well we have much more debt now than we had in 2008 I mean by an order of magnitude everybody has more debt than they had back then and so this is going to be a much bigger crisis when the defaults start and all those banks that were too big to fail that were bailed out in 2008 they're a lot bigger now and when they fail it's going to be a lot worse except with inflation too high and the FED fighting inflation there are no bailouts there's no tarp 2.0 all these banks are going to have to be allowed to fail and that means customers are going to lose money not just stockholders or bondholders the customers are going to lose money because the FDIC doesn't have any money unless it gets it from the fed and the FED isn't going to be giving out money if it's fighting inflation it's taking away money so I believe the FED is going to Pivot to prevent that that massive financial crisis and so what we're going to get is a sovereign debt crisis and a U.S dollar crisis so it's going to take the form of a crashing dollar and so the people who are going to lose money are not the people that are just holding subprime mortgages but the people who are holding U.S treasury bonds or any Bonds denominated in U.S dollars or even people that have U.S dollars stuffed under their mattress you know the dollar has risen so far uh in the early stages of this big inflation because investors are still delusional about the fed's ability to contain inflation and bring it back down to two percent when they wake up to reality that inflation is going to be way above two percent indefinitely then the dollar is going to fall through the floor and then things like gold and silver will go through the roof in 1971 the U.S defaulted on its obligation because Nixon took us off the gold standard but prior to that if you owned a Federal Reserve Note and you were a foreign Central Bank you own an obligation of the United States government to pay you gold Federal Reserve notes were notes for gold and the U.S government defaulted on those notes we told all of our International creditors we promised to pay you gold if you had 35 dollars we promised you an ounce of gold and they did a couple of devaluations first but that wasn't enough and then Nixon said you know what we're going to default completely we're going to give you no no gold for your notes we're going to pay nothing so that was an official default and then gold went from 35 an ounce up to 850.

02. so people who had U.S federal reserve notes you know thought they were going to get a certain amount of gold they ended up getting a fraction of that gold because the value of the dollar included relative to Gold because we defaulted on that promise but we didn't officially default on treasuries but we defaulted on the fact that those treasuries were supposed to be repaiding gold because when we repaid treasuries in in Federal Reserve notes they that was the equality of gold they used to say the dollar is as good as gold because it was not only backed by gold but redeemable on demand four goal so that was the first of all this default is going to be different because obviously we're no longer on a gold standard so nobody who owns U.S treasuries or U.S dollars has any expectation that they're going to be given gold but they do believe they're going to be able to afford the buy goal they're going to wake up to the reality that Gold's going to be so expensive in terms of dollars they're not going to be able to afford to buy any because I think the dollar is going to implode and I think it's going to lose its status as the reserve currency and that is going to be a game changer for the US economy because we rely on the ability to exchange the paper we print U.S federal reserve notes dollars for the goods the rest of the world produces so we are dependent on the rest of the world for the goods that we consume and we don't have to produce Goods in exchange and that's been the free ride that we've had on This Global gravy train and that's going to come to an end