저자: KevinPaffrath · 외국인
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과열 국면(마진부채·개인 순매수 사상 최고, S&P500 4월 대비 32% 상승, 밸류에이션 극단)에서 관세·재정·중국 리스크가 겹쳐 충격 취약성이 역대급이라 주장. 단기는 실적·Fed·CPI 이벤트가 완충하나 2~3개월 내 조정 가능성과 장단기 금리차 역전 심화 위험을 경고. 발언 내 자산 가격 방향 예측은 명시적으로 없고 구조적 위험 진단 위주.
다듬은 글
Oh man, did Donnie T just set up the straw that's going to break this economy's back. We've got to talk about it. And boy, do I have a lot of research put together for you to make this as simple as possible. First, we got to set the stage. You got to understand where we are in sort of the cycle of euphoria right now.
And a lot of people are like, "Ah, there's no euphoria. Earnings are good. Everything's fine." And then I wonder, ah, yes, the stock investors are clearly looking at earnings. There's no better place I go to find earnings than a stock like Olo. Oh, this must be some crazy penny stock, right? I mean, only penny stocks move like this.
Wrong. It is a $21 billion market cap idea. But that's okay because everybody's making money because the stock's going up and to the right. So, who cares what the actual earnings are because wait, the economy is supposed to be backed by corporate earnings, right? Uh well, not in the case of Ollo. Their income statement has no income.
Uh let me quickly hide that cuz it's pretty bad. Uh oh no, what is this? Oh, insiders selling every damn stock they can get their fingers on. Oh. Oh, what about this one? Oh. Oh gosh. More insider selling. Uh, more insider selling. More insider selling. More insider selling. More insider. They're off.
You get the idea. But that's okay. Maybe that's just a Maybe it's just idiosyncratic. Maybe it's not the economy at all. Maybe it's not the stock market at all. I mean, it's it's not like margin debt is at all-time highs. It is. It's not like, you know, crypto just had its highest inflows ever before, you know, yesterday.
Obviously, it did. It's not like stocks have had their highest month of inflows from retail investors ever in the history of investments. We did just have the highest month ever of retail stock inflows. It's not like two weeks ago, Bank of America had the second highest deployment of stock purchases by their clients ever.
We did. And at least we haven't gotten to the point yet where you've got leveraged ETFs promoting themselves on financial Twitter to get more people to understand the power and downsides of leverage than ever before. Oh, that's now happening as well. Well, I guess you could say there's a lot of hope that everything is just going to be okay.
I mean, after all, GDP is cranking. All we have to do is jump on over to the Atlanta Fed real GDP index and see that everything is fine because obviously the stock market trades based off of what GDP is. It's It's never seen revisions to GDP and and never traded disconnected from actual economic realities or earnings.
Ever before, right? Damn. Do I still have time to get out of my stocks before I post this damn video? All right, look. We got to be real here. We have some serious problems. And yes, Donald Trump may have just laid up the straw that does end up breaking the economy's back. Let's actually talk about some of the components of what's going on because right now not only do we have a lot of hope but we are also in a very h this time is different environment.
Don't worry about the whole tangled circle of investments that we're seeing out there. Just just don't mind the fact that we have had the highest capex to sales ratio that we have seen at companies in the last 25 years. Fortunately supported yes by cash flow generation right now. Will it last? That's the big question.
And the situation with China along with what's going on with the government is a big deal. And so, we're going to break all of this down. It it it is a lot to take in, but I want to consolidate this all into one video for you. Remember, uh I have two goals. Uh number one, I want to in this video direct you to the daily wealth.
You can now get that totally for free if you want in the Meet Kevin app. Download the Meet Kevin app in the Apple or Android app store. And then number two, my goal is just to provide value. So let's get into providing as much value as I can in this video because there's a lot to do. So the reductions in force have begun.
Uh people are now getting letters uh inside of the government that say, "I regret to inform you that you are being affected by a reduction in force action. Please find attached a notice of memorandum explaining the riff and next steps. This riff action does not reflect directly on your service, performance, or conduct.
It is being taken solely for reasons stated in the memorandum which is of course coming straight down from uh the Oval Office suggesting hey if there is no funding for your department that and and therefore you are at risk of seeing your department's funding cut uh it is time for you to start essentially firing people and that's exactly what's been happening.
Now, will that end up trickling into the economy when all of these people who end up getting laid off at the government now try to find work elsewhere? Yes. Yes, it will. That's going to be another insult to injury here. And then, of course, we are back to an egoboosted tariff war. See, Donald Trump since liberation day where his ego actually got hurt and he had to shift whether it was Howard Slutnik or Bessant who ended up talking on TV.
We found that Bessant was good for stocks. So, let's just put Bessant on TV. And since then, honestly, the market's been straight up. Part of this is because many investors know that tariffs will take 6 to 12 months to really show their effects. I mean, consider you could go back 95 years ago to the Smood Holly tariff era and find that yeah, you had a stock market reaction when the Smood Holly tariffs were first implemented before the Great Depression following the crash of 29, which you know, the crash of 29 was like a 20 29% drop.
Yeah, we ended up getting an 80% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average by the time the depression was over in 32 32 to 33. So what what actually happened was that even after some of the initial shock waves of these tariffs 95 years ago, it actually took 6 to 12 months to really see the Smooth Holly tariffs show up in global trade data and GDP data.
Global trade ended up collapsing 40%, GDP collapsed 15% across the globe. And so, while those are some pretty extreme numbers and we don't think those numbers are going to be as extreme now, it's worth remembering we're literally 6 months from Liberation Day and the Smooth Holly tariffs really started showing up 6 to 12 months after the enactment of those tariffs.
So, we're right now at just the beginning of where the oopsy dupsies might end up coming into play from tariffs. And it's coming at a time where the catalysts we have aren't great. See, we actually had a really wonderful last few weeks. This is something how, hey, we're going to have the Federal Reserve in the third week of September, but after that Fed meeting, if the government shuts down, we're not going to get jobs data.
We're not going to get CPI data. We're not actually going to get any bad news. And basically no news is just going to be good news. In fact, we had targets that the cues would end up making it to 615, which we made it about 612. We had targets that if AMD held 200, Nvidia would go to 195, which is exactly what it did.
We had targets for Tesla and many other stocks. And all of it was based on, hey, there's really no lack of data right now or there's really no data right now to ruin this party. this is great. Like, nobody's taking the punch bowl away. And it got to the point where we kind of we're all pinching each other on almost a daily basis or pinching ourselves on a daily basis.
You know, we have to pinch each other, okay? Uh going, "Oh man, like this is this is kind of ludicrous, but we like the money. We like the green in the portfolios." You know, a lot of people are looking at their portfolios this weekend. They're like, "Damn, I should have sold Monday morning, you know, like or Friday morning." And I'm like, I get it.
I I get the feeling entirely. And that's why I wanted to put together this video because there's just so much to think about. But the most important thing to think about right now, of course, we're going to talk about the Chinese situation, but understand we have an SH9T book of catalysts ahead of us.
See, when we went from the Fed meeting to nothing basically over the last 3 weeks, we had just positive things to look forward to, which we knew was going to be bad for bond yields, which it was. you know, bond yields rose again. So, bad for people investing in bonds or mortgage or interest rate sensitive plays.
But now the story is flipping. We're at the flipping point. Now, all of a sudden, bond yields are plummeting. People are nervous again about stocks. Why? Well, here's what to pay attention to. Number one, we just heard we're going to get CPI data on the 24th. So, write on your calendar. 5:30 a.m. meet Kevin will be live streaming CPI data on October 24th.
So, we've got a new catalyst, but it's and that was also a catalyst we weren't expecting we were going to get. We thought it was just going to be delayed forever until, you know, the Schumer shutdown, the Schumer siesta came to an end, but you already know my opinions on the politics around that. We don't have to talk about that in this video.
On October 29th, we'll have the Fed's FOMC decision, which right now, most of the market is convinced that, oh yeah, we're just going to keep seeing rate cuts. The rate cut cycle has started. But are we setting up too much of an anticipation that the Fed will be doubbish when they don't actually have data to justify being doubbish?
That's actually somewhat bearish for the economy, right? Again, we're going from no data is great news to a crap, now we're going to get CPI data. Now we're going to get the Fed and they might not forecast as many cuts. Then now we've got Apac on October 31st, Halloween and November 1st, which is maybe when Donald Trump will speak with President Xiin Bing.
Maybe not. Then we have bank earnings starting this week. So we're going into full steam ahead Q3 earnings season here. On top of this, the S&P 500 is literally up 32% from April. People are worried about jobs and the potential that this jobs report is going to drop all of a sudden. We're going to go, "Oh, whoa, we just got blindsided on jobs." People are worried about corporate capex and the potential that maybe we're overdoing it a little bit with this cyclical investment nature we're getting out of Nvidia, AMD, Open AAI, and the other companies.
We've talked about that plenty. A lot of that, by the way, being fueled by debt financing. This is why we just saw the largest liquidation in the crypto markets in the history of crypto markets. We also have this assumption that tariffs are not going to have an impact on our economy, which historically is false.
Of course, in the near term, like the first 6 months, wow, tariffs haven't really had an impact. Duh. That's what we've been saying since Liberation Day. It's going to take months to show this stuff up in the data, especially since people and companies are going to go through inventory they have to sort of delay the impact of tariffs.
And we're sitting at recent record high inflows. All of this together with the fact that Bloomberg Intelligence suggests analysts expect profit growth of 7.4% for US stocks in Q3 suggests we have this really insanely high bar for the stock market right now. Like let me just simplify that in like one sentence for you.
Okay, it's like hey yo GPT give me a summary on this crap. Okay, it is that stocks at record high, debt at record high, spending at record high, expectations at record high, assumptions of Fed cuts at record high, and assumptions that there ain't going to be any problem with tariffs at record highs.
What direction can we really go when that is what the setup is? We have a really really high bar to avoid profit taking. This is probably the highest bar ever in the history of financial markets. I don't think the bar has ever ever ever been more looney beans inflated. Now, that's not to say there aren't actual real companies making really good money.
Like, Facebook's valuation is really low right now. We did a phenomenal fundamental analysis on this in the meet Kevin membership, which remember you get lifetime access to if you join at meet.com. Use coupon code schemer. On top of that, Nvidia isn't even technically properly valued based on its earnings per share growth expectations for the next four years.
It's actually selling at a discount. But we feel these companies are at record highs and so people aren't choosing to invest in those. Instead, they're going for the profitless companies like the Olos, the Annealing Quantum plays, which are mostly a vast scam. Some quantum plays are great, others not so much.
Uh, and then of course plowing money into anything that is related to rare earths because yes, if Donnie T says rare earths are what we're going to invest in, then one day we'll see the profits from those. Even though we really have no heavy rare earth refinement in the United States and we have just 4% of the capacity to actually process rare earth minerals compared to China, which isn't great.
In other words, China eats our lunch in this for days. Which of course, that's where we need to talk about China. See, the reality is all of this started because of China. That Donald Trump is now suggesting an extra 100% tariff on Chinese goods will be imposed starting November 1st. That's up from 57% for now a 130% total.
Now, of course, a lot of people are hoping that Donald Trump will taco, as in Trump always chickens out and we'll end up getting some kind of 90-day pause or delay in tariffs and we'll be able to keep the party going. Of course, Donald Trump is also suggesting that we're going to ban the exports of any and all critical software to China next month, which apparently might include companies like Oracle and Microsoft, to which Craig Lawrence on X writes the following.
Oh, damn. You mean China won't be able to use SAP, Oracle, and Microsoft software? Won't this increase their productivity? Oh, damn. Satisfying. Uh, but like, let's understand the relationship here between Trump and China to see are we going to get more 90-day tacoing? Quite possible. which would be great, but it's really just kicking the can down the road.
Or is this the moment where China not only digs in its heels, but Donald Trump digs in his heels? I mean, Donald Trump coming up on midterm elections and during the quote unquote Schumer shutdown, wouldn't want to come across as weak on China, would he? That'd probably be somewhat ego bruising, especially since Donald Trump in his truth social post says that this Chinese aggression came quote out of nowhere, which is ironic because China has been building as we should have been our or I should say, you know, we should have been building this, but China is building their rare earth infrastructure since we kind of gave up the ball in the 70s.
China has also been moving soybean production and investing in Brazil to basically hedge against the United States power here since the 1990s. And then of course Trump 1.0 know really told China you can't rely on US interdependence that much and you might start insolating yourself which of course China had a wonderful five six seven years here to start insolating themselves from and that's why they have the power to be more aggressive today than ever before and see this is probably the biggest risk factor here see Donald Trump announced a framework deal with China in June China didn't comment on the deal.
Instead, they suggested, "We support free and fair trade." This is actually very similar to Donald Trump's style of announcing deals and then p pressuring the other side to accept the deal that he announced that they already had, even though he never talked with the other side. It's the same thing that he did with Hamas in this recent negotiation with Israel.
There's just a really big difference between Hamas and China. China doesn't need to get bullied into a deal. Hamas is broken, leaderless, and their financial backer, Iran, got pretty damn humbled in fairness, to credit to Donald Trump. China, though, this is a little different. Trump's unilateral trade deal here really doesn't have a chance, and that does create a risk of a prolonged final boss in the tariff warfare.
see Europe and Canada and Mexico and individual countries and continents, they kind of have to roll over to Donald Trump because Donald Trump does represent the most powerful economy and most powerful consumer in the world. So yes, Donald Trump is able to leverage the hegemonic power that the United States has created.
It's going to piss a lot of countries off and they will become less interdependent over time because of it. we are sort of decaying our um moral bank account, if you will. We're draining our moral bank account by doing this, right? China, though, they're the final boss. And China sees themselves as either equal to the United States here, worse, superior to the United States.
Very possible. But it's not just that. China sees themselves as morally justified here. Now, how do we know that? We know this because China just yesterday, on the very day that Donald Trump announced these new tariffs, had their international trade representative for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce visit the G20 trade and investment ministers meeting in South Africa yesterday.
And guess what China said when they were there? They said the following on screen here. The individual called on all parties to uphold the multilateral trading system, free trade, oppose unilateralism and protectionism, avoid trade restrictions, remove green trade barriers, and leverage their comparative advantages to jointly support developing countries, injecting impetus to green industrialization and sustainable development.
Oh, Kevin, I can't listen. What the hell did you just say, Doc? I know this is a stupid paragraph, so let me break this down. Okay, they said China said, "Let's have multilateral trade, aka let's screw Trump for forcing his own unilateralism on people, his singleminded way." Then they say, "Let's have free trade, aka, let's screw Trump's tariffs," which are obviously not free trade.
tariffs are basically unfair trade being used in as sort of like a counterweight argument by Trump for oh well but China's been unfair you know and people make this argument all the time that China's been unfair it is true like China steals our intellectual property that's terrible China doesn't care okay they want to build up their own industries they're being selfish this is true on the flip side is China truly dumping solar panels on the US market or is China just better at manufacturing and able to manufacture way more at a higher quality than the Germans or Americans can do at lower prices.
And then Americans are like, "Well, do I want higher quality, more of them for a lower price, or do I want to buy American or Deutsch and pay more and have lower quality?" Like, you know, so we think about dumping, you know, sometimes we got to balance that out a little bit. All right? Like, well, I don't know.
I kind of want to be dumped on and I but anyway so then you know they say let's oppose unilateralism and protectionism aka let's also oppose Donald Trump right like can you see what I'm doing here is like the Chinese are digging in their heels here they say let's work together to remove green trade barriers who is throwing up green trade barriers right now oh uh let's see who calls it the green new scam oh right because windmills are killing our whales Then they say, "Let's work together," which is not what Trump wants to do, and support green energy, which again leaves Donald Trump behind.
You're basically giving China the next decade to get what they want with green energy. So, you want to invest in green energy, solar, uh, inverters, panels, windmills, or whatever. You should be investing in these Chinese companies because they they just got handed a license to dominate that sector by Donald Trump.
And I mean, frankly, you got to understand where Donald Trump comes from. It's not that solar panels or wind are bad. There is no one source of energy that is purely without their downfalls. I mean, nuclear is pretty damn good, but we still have, you know, we got to build the infrastructure. So there there are issues there as well, right?
But it's really that Trump's tirade against solar panels and wind is really just a way to get Republican votes because of the oil and natural gas lobby. Wind and solar are actually really great and really useful. But Donald Trump wants the oil and gas lobby votes, which is exactly what he does with crypto.
Trump doesn't give a flying f about crypto. He just wants the votes and he wants the donations and he wants the money because he wants to win and he wants people to get on their knees and tell him that he's right. At the same time, for the sake of propping up politicians, you've got in America, you've got the Chinese Communist Party building like armored robotic army for their people uh or or armor for their people.
Armor armored robotic armor. robotic art. I know whatever the hell you would call this. Like what? Like the robots we're building do a horrible job at folding laundry. And this is the kind of stuff that China is working on. You know, China's kind of just like they're eating our lunch with manufacturing.
They are creaming us. And in part, it's because China's government is very different than ours. They can unify their country under we will build battery infrastructure for electric vehicles. We will build out rare earth minerals. We will build out robotic armies. We will build the best drones in the world.
Those are directives. Drones in the world. Those are directives that come from the top and then they happen. Whereas in America, we get, "Hey, I'm running for office." And then you get the phone call, "Hey yo, it's your homie Vlad. Yo, you know, we could use a little less uh SEC regulation around stable coins and tokenization and and you know, crypto.
While we're at it, I got my Gemini Bros here. you know, we were thinking um of looking for a candidate we could throw like a hundred millies at, you know, just to help him with a little bit of funding. Uh cuz uh you know, we we we believe in you. You know, we believe in you, but there are other options as well.
You know, nobody likes crypto and to token what more than I do. Hm. Obviously being a little physicious here, but I don't think that's too far from reality. But this is why I hate politics, okay? It's very slimy. It's it's disgusting. This is why like when when I ran for governor in California, I learned so much about how broken the game is.
And you know, we funded with you guys. You know, we got over one vote per dollar we spent, which is phenomenal. You know, Gavin Nuskum was spending like $15 per vote that he got and we got almost a million votes. You know, we we did really really well. But the point of that is like I didn't take any special interest money or lobbying money or whatever.
But that's also probably why I didn't lose or why I didn't win because I didn't have all that money to spend, right? So like politics and money. But unfortunately when when you realize that the reason this tangentially makes sense is because China doesn't have that problem. They're in power. They don't have to worry about sucking the titty of some industry that wants uh uh you know once you know regulation or their SEC lawsuit or the you know dropped or their Trevor Milton you know out of jail or whatever because you know in exchange for donations to politics because they're in power so it doesn't matter.
So it's no surprise that China corners rare earths. Now, in fairness, we corner AI chips, but interdependence has always been a tool for the United States. And right now, what we're kind of doing is it's it's sort of like we're dismantling our jet engines while we're in the middle of flying. And we don't have the tools to put it back together.
China has the tools. We used to, you know, think Swift Banking. The Swift banking was basic banking system was a way to sort of say to all of our trading partners, hey, hey, yeah, let's use the Swift banking system. Let's all work together. And then when terrorism struck in 9/11, we were able to use the Swift Banking system to go track down terrorists and scumbags who kill Americans.
Now, obviously, there's a limit to government surveillance, and we saw the risks of overreach of that with Edward Snowden and the Patriot Act and the problems with this. Uh but but remember, China doesn't give a flying f about any of this. They are basically able to use the weapons of US interdependence where everybody relies on the United States and kind of turn it into now everybody relies on China from a manufacturing front, from a technology front, from a weapons front, from now a rare earths front, China's really smart in that.
and they realize that if they put up a stand, there's going to be this US versus them where basically China starts squeezing Europe to say, "Hey, you know, we're going to hurt you if you support Trump too much." Right? It's also why why do you think Donald Trump hasn't actually put secondary sanctions on any other country buying Russian oil yet?
China and India because it's not powerful enough. China's too strong. You know, Biden tried fighting China, too. We worked with the Netherlands under the Biden administration to limit ASML exports to China for the EUV, uh, you know, and ultra violet lithography machines, uh, and extreme ultraviolet lithography machines.
We tried limiting some of the best exports of these machines to China. And then, of course, China just ended up stealing the technology and the manuals for how to design these systems. So again, like nobody here is saying China is without fault, but China has political unity where they can really hurt us.
And what we're doing is we're picking a fight with a unified, very powerful country without actually having our own replacements set up yet. you know, like maybe we should build out our rare earth mining first, which we haven't done and won't do until like the end of the decade before we pick a fight with China.
Just just saying it's crazy idea, right? But the problem is we don't really have a government that can help support these sort of investments because a it's so divided by politics and b it's now actually getting worse because Donald Trump is basically gutting the very government weapon that we need against China.
Let that sink in for a moment. We are literally gutting staff at the Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. That is a perfect example of institutional decay. China is doing the opposite. Half of the staff at the National Security Council, which coordinates security across the entire government, gone.
State Department, massive cuts, all going to the Oval Office. the amount of ambassadors that have empty or ambassador ships that have empty seats right now internationally probably not so good for diplomacy or building that interdependency whereas what's China doing China's going around opening the legs going hey don't worry we'll fill the void because remember one thing when it comes to diplomacy or regional hegeimons or whatever when a strong existing power leaves or pisses off its trading partners by monetizing what it's built up for decades, which is what Trump's doing.
He's monetizing our reputation banks, right? And he's draining those banks. Eventually, they'll be empty. Well, what happens when you do that is you create a power vacuum. And anytime you create a power vacuum, somebody else steps in. So, while we degrade the United States government, China is promoting government integration, not just in China, but around the entire world.
This is really an economic and governmental weapon. Much like back in the day, it used to be, hey, who had more nukes? Today, it's like who's got the economic power. So, all of this for now, these short-term deals and everything, all this sort of like tariff coercion and supply chain stuff or whatever, this works great in the near term, but in the long term, we are going to be depleting our institutional banks or our or like well, the systems that America stands for.
And it's a problem because all of that just leads China to say we're going to dig in. I don't actually think China's going to roll over on the Tik Tok deal, and I don't think that China is going to roll over on these trade negotiations. Now, is it possible that Donald Trump tacos and we get more 90-day delays?
Of course, that's very, very likely. But the closer we get to midterms, you get this duality happening. The closer we get to midterms, the more Donald Trump wants to look strong against China and the more those original tariff impacts start biting, which remember we're just at the beginning of that 6-month cycle.
Now, Scott Bessett, Treasury Secretary, has been suggesting that talking could avoid this problem with China, but here we are. We're supposed to be preparing for talks, and now the talks are maybe falling apart. Donald Trump's on one hand suggested maybe we won't talk, maybe we will. It's neither confirmed nor cancelled.
It's a little confusing at this point, but for now, we still rely on each other, China and the United States to a lot. So hope is that cooler heads will prevail and we'll just delay this stuff for a little while longer. So a lot of what I just said, you have to think about that as like very very long term, right?
The direction we're going in is not great. But what we got to now think of is what do we do in the short term? Well, the short term tells us that it's all going to come down to this week. This week, markets are going to tell us how much they're caring about these nearterm catalysts, right? So, short-term, long-term, short-term, what are we looking at?
Earnings expectations are we're going to smash and beat. The high bar is set. Job concerns. We probably won't get jobs data until November. So, do we really care? Maybe not. Capex spending, honestly, is probably going to keep going. Even if the stock market falters for a few weeks, probably going to keep seeing deals and blowing of money.
Like, I don't see that stopping until, you know, you actually get real economic damage. And I think it's too soon to call for massive economic damage. Now, of course, it's possible that the stock market selloff lasts so long that the ability to spend money on capex by raising money through the stock market fades.
That of course is going to hurt the capex cycle. But that's more of like a second or third order effect. You know, at first we got to get through these catalysts. So, if we get through these catalysts and we ignore the job issues, we're okay with the Fed cutting, you know, two or three times between now and next summer, and we continue to hope that there's no tariff impact and maybe Trump tacos and we get more 90-day pauses, everything could kind of keep going.
We might get some volatility, but everything could kind of keep going for now. The problem is we are definitely building up a lot of debt. Not just debt in the trade war or government debt with our ability to fight China in the long term or labor market debt. These are all things that we're going to have to pay for at some point in the future and they'll probably be a pretty darn nasty downturn at some point in the future.
Near-term though, the only thing people are going to care about so the next six months is taco. And if we get taco, the euphoric party could keep going. So, I'm going to be looking at earnings over the next two weeks very, very closely. Again, I'm expecting to see a continuation of capex, not too many job concerns.
And even though markets might trade down because there's nervousness over what's going on with this trade war, I don't know that it's enough to be a recessionary impact. Almost certainly isn't. Now, if the market like if this week starts a sell-off that ends up lasting for the rest of the year, like we don't get a Christmas clause rally, you know, Santa Claus rally, Christmas clause, then a market downturn itself could actually lead to true firings and economic pain.
And that's where we always get back to this debt. We've already built up the six-month unemployed chart. You already know that chart's been going up for a while. We are building up massive debt on that front. But it's also worth remembering that that 102 yield curve sits at 52 basis points right now.
We are above shock territory. This could be the straw that actually pushes us into a 100 basis point on inversion. Then we're in true shock. Market continues to sell off. That's when you get the layoff cycle and that's when you really get the poopy dupies. So, let me bottom line all of this. Okay, next few weeks are critical.
We need taco to keep the party going. We must keep the debt going and avoid the margin calls. We must avoid people paying off their debt. And we must pray that earnings beat the way we already expect them to beat or more. As long as that happens, we could be okay for a little while longer. But yeah, we're on borrowed time.
Now, if we start missing on earnings, the trade war intensifies, then yes, we are at the most shockprone we probably have ever been in the history of financial markets. We today are probably the most shockprone ever and that is scary. And if any of that makes you fearful, no, don't worry about getting life insurance.
Instead, join the Me Kevin membership and see exactly when I hit the sell button before anybody else doe.
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