저자: KevinPaffrath · 외국인
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트럼프가 중국의 희토류 수출통제 확대에 반발해 시장 급락. 중국은 희토류 약 93% 가공 장악. 10월 트럼프-시진핑 회담 취소 언급, 관세 인상 가능성 시사. 나스닥·Q's·칩주 하락, 금 상승, 금리 하락. 중국 선택 대응 여지와 긴장 고조가 단기 변동성 원인으로 제시됨. 채널 유료 멤버십 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Well, Donnie Te's back at it again. Donnie doesn't like that the Chinese are putting more restrictions on our finest and greatest chips and more restrictions on those rare earth minerals that we really need. We got to have them. They're called rare earths for a reason. Din now sending us this memo. Some very strange things are happening in China.
Now they are becoming very hostile and sending letters to countries throughout the world that they want to impose export controls on each and every element of production having to do with rare earths and virtually anything else they can think of even if it is not manufactured in China. Nobody has seen anything like this but essentially it would clog the markets and make life very difficult for very every country in the world especially for China especially for China which is a threat pack now obvious you know markets are dumping on this right now you know the cues just dropped off a cliff by like 50 basis points on this because it suggests like look a lot of people were really excited about the Winnie the Pooh meeting coming up because Trump and Xi Jinping are supposed to meet and the expectation is that you know China's just setting up some extra like rare earth export controls to have some negotiating leverage before the meeting between Trump and China.
Uh and a lot of people are like, "All right, that's just what China's doing." And then on the other side, people are like, you know, they'll work out a Tik Tok deal and they'll work out a a soybean deal. Because remember, we did a very deep dive video on this where our soybean farmers are absolutely getting destroyed by China not buying our soybeans because it's, you know, soybeans.
I didn't know this until I did the research on it, but it's like onethird of all of what we produce for our farms. Uh, and that market is getting destroyed with US prices for soybeans plummeting, which is really bad for farmers. It's really bad probably for stocks like John Deere and otherwise, especially since most of their equipment is sold in North America.
And Donald Trump has been promising farmer stimulus, but then he's like, because of the Schuma shutdown, I can't do the stimulus. Uh and so it's it's like there's there's a lot of like nervousness around this deal, but uh with China and there's been a lot of enthusiasm for it because this in-person meeting is supposed to come up.
Remember Donald Trump unilaterally and he does this sort of thing. He's like, "I've got a great deal. I've signed the deal for Tik Tok. We're going to buy Tik Tok for 14 bill or whatever." And then you look at and and China is still going to keep a ton of the revenue, right? That's why the sale is so low because China is still going to keep like the vast majority of the revenue that Tik Tok generates.
But what happens is we've heard nothing from the Chinese about that deal. So unlike Hamas where they kind of have no choice, China's got a choice. China is actively trying to ddollarize. They are actively trying to settle whether it's copper trades or oil trades in anything but the dollar. Anything they can do to ddollarize and anything they can do to prop up Russia is exactly what China wants.
China wants Russia to stay propped up because they want to be friends with India and all of our other trade partners. Why do you think they're cozying up to the European Union nations? Now, fortunately, the European Union kind of is is leaning towards choosing the US more so, and this is why we've gotten trade agreements with the EU, but you still got Chinese cars getting imported into the the European Union market.
Imagine if we had Chinese cars getting imported into the US market. we'd all be driving Chinese cars because they'd be way cheaper. Like it'd actually be kind of good for consumers if you had this sort of global trade uh because car prices would plummet. And I mean there was a report this morning which this isn't like systemic yet to to you know the broader economy.
But it's something people are paying attention to. You know you've got uh reports here that Americans are falling behind on their car payments and delinquency rates on subprime auto loan records are at records. Now, part of that is because everybody's credit score got propped up during uh COVID because nobody could miss a payment.
But the other part of that is now you've got the highest level of car repossessions since 2009, which is crazy. Uh it's it's not good. Like there are people who are legitimately suffering in in this environment. It sucks. But anyway, now you've got a little bit of a Trump lash out going on here. As you can see here, uh, we have been contacted by other countries who are extremely angry at this trade hostility, which came out of nowhere.
Our relationship with China over the past 6 months has been a very good one. Uh, not really. Like, if you actually listen to the Chinese side, they're sort of like, we don't like this. We don't like this unilateral Trump trade tariff war. And China has been the one country that has been fighting back.
Every other country has been rolling over to Trump's tariffs. And so far it's like things are okay. You know, remember like we said, the long-term impacts of tariffs, they take a while to show up. One of the alerts uh or or posts I made in the uh the course member section was that expect restoration hardware to keep bleeding.
Uh and you know, since that post, it's been falling off a cliff. In fact, if you watch the course member uh live stream this morning, I said I'm bearish the Q's today. Uh I'd like I I people are like, "Kevin, should we go Q's calls today?" go. I don't know, man. I think we got nervousness going into next week into earnings.
I didn't think Trump was going to lash out here, but I wasn't really optimistic on on the cues today. I was optimistic on another play, which was great. Uh but uh but let's keep going with what Trump said over here. Remember, you can get lifetime access if you join over at meetke.com. But look at this.
Our relationship with China over the past six months has been a good one. I dispute that. Again, they're the only one fighting us, right? I've also felt that they've been lying in weight and now as usual, I've been proven right. Well, yeah, it's not that you've been proven right. It's that you knew that things were not good with China.
You've been branding things as good with China and now you're like, "Oh, things aren't good with China. I was right." Well, yeah, cuz you knew that from everybody who's been paying attention knows things aren't good with China. So, you were just lying earlier and now you're just telling it like it is.
Uh, anyway, but that seems to have been their plan for quite some time, starting with the magnets and other elements that they have quietly amassed into somewhat of a monopoly position. Yeah, China has control of about 93% of the rare earth minerals market. This is why Donald Trump is like lashing out trying to get in his hands on companies like uh Lithium Americas.
He's taking stakes into those. Really what he's trying to do is he's trying to announce like hey if we take stakes in these you know money losing companies then then maybe the stock will go up and you basically like a retail investor will finance these companies because the stock will go up and it'll give these companies the opportunity to raise money.
Look at for example the information reported that the metals company, you know, an underwater uh rare earth minerals exploration company is potentially going to get acquired or have some kind of acquisition stake from the Trump administration. This has led to a lot of enthusiasm where people like, "Oh, this would be amazing.
Oh my gosh, like this this would be awesome. We we you know, the medals might skyrocket or whatever, right?" And so what do you have here? This is the medals co. They've got 117 million of cash, which is actually pretty good. Uh they've got 49 billion or million dollars of bills to pay, which means they've got about seven quarters of cash.
So they've got about 2 years of of cash that they can go through over here. You know, good for them, right? But let's be real here for a moment. You know, what does the company do in terms of uh actually making money? Oh, the metals company is pre-revenue. It makes no money at all. In fact, here's their income statement, there is no income.
It literally starts at expense because they don't have income. So, like the companies that we have that could do rare earths, they're not actually doing much right now. I mean, here, this is the metals company again, and the only reason they're making money is because they're raising money. They're offering money.
They're issuing shares. They've got private placements going on and they're putting that money into this like risky bet that oh yeah, we'll be able to deep water explore rare earths because we don't have access to the rare earth like ch the Chinese do. So yeah, you know, Trump is Trump is pissed about that.
Uh okay, you know, worth worth paying attention to. All right. So, anyway, going back to the the Trump post over here, but the US has a uh but the US has monopoly positions also so much stronger and far more reaching than China's. I just have not chosen to use them. There was never never a reason for me to do so until now.
Oh. Oh, okay. Here come here come the big balls. Oh, the big ball wrecking balls are coming out. Q's now down 1.06 basis points. You've got Restoration Hardware is now down 4% dumping even more. Nvidia just lost the lead. Lost the lead. All right, let's keep going here. We've got until now. The letter they sent is many pages long and details with great specificity each and every element they want to withhold from other nations.
Things that were not routine and are no longer routine at all. I have spoken I've not spoken to President Winnie Pooh uh because there was no reason to do so. This was a real surprise. Not only to me, but to leaders of the free world. I was to meet Winnie the Pooh in two weeks at APEC in South Korea, but now there seems to be no reason to do so.
Wow, he's cancelling the meeting. The meeting's off. You said a mean letter. The meeting's cancelled. Hey, you know there is some good news, right? Like you can still me.com/life. Ah, and Weeble, if you go to meet Kevin.com/weee, is still offering 4% balance transfers if you transfer over 100K, 3% balance transfers if you do less.
Just go to meetaven.com/webble. Paid sponsors of the channel. Anyway, going continuing on here, the Chinese letters were especially inappropriate in that this was the day that after 3,000 years of bedan fighting, there's peace in the Middle East. I wonder if that timing was coincidental. Oh, he's basically implying like as soon as I get a Middle East deal, you guys want to tank the market.
Depending on what China says about the hostile order that they have just put out, I will be forced as pus to financially counter their move. For every element that they have been able to monopolize, we have two. I never thought it would come to this. Yeah, Uh but perhaps as with all things, the dime has come.
Wait a minute. The time has come. The moment is at hand. the warlaves. Anyway, uh okay, so uh let's see here. What else? What else? What else? Ultimately though, potentially painful, it will be a very good thing in the end for the US. One of the policies that we are calculating at the moment is a massive increase of tariffs on Chinese products coming into the United States of America.
There are many other countermeasures likewise under serious consideration. Thank you for your attention to the matter. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So, when are we buying the dip? Uh, well, probably right now. So, uh, markets seem to have already relaxed a little bit on their sellown. Can we get Nvidia back to green, please?
Almost, almost. Come on, buy the dip. Let's go. We need Nvidia back up. So, anyway, that's the drama right now. Look, this isn't this is not a surprise. China, out of all the countries in the world, actually has the balls to stand up to Trump's looney beans tariffs. Okay, we know that the tariffs are looney beans and China via Winnie the Pooh is the only one who's actually going, "Hey, you know, maybe we could talk here about fair trade." And now we get it.
This is where a lot of people like, "Oh my gosh, Kevin, are you shilling for the Chinese dumping products on Americans and No, I'm shilling for cheaper goods and services." And I know a lot of people are like, "But government, the Chinese dump solar panels on Americans." Great. You could dump cheaper solar panels on me all damn day long so I can put some more solar panels on my roof because it makes stuff cheaper for us.
Now that's the way you get. But Kevin, that hurts the union workers, bro. How many people work for unions? It's a fraction of the American workers. There are 154 million American workers in this country. They're like 300,000 to 600,000 auto workers in unions. Why are we propping up such a small percentage with protectionist measures that make the cost of living more expensive for not just every American worker, but every American, even not part of the labor force.
Anyway, I I I'm not a fan of tariffs, in case that isn't obvious. Anyway, uh that said, uh it's not a surprise that China is the one country that actually has the balls to do anything. Uh so we'll see how this evolves, but that's what's making people nervous right now. Uh keep in mind, we also have earnings coming up.
And we have the CPI catalyst, which is now going to get released. So you've got uh what some of the suits are reacting with is president has implied that the meeting's not going to happen. Oh, he's more than implied that the meeting's not going to happen. They said there's no reason to have the meeting anymore.
I've got gold rising on this news. Uh I probably Let's go see what's happening to the yields market. Let's go see how reactions are. I've got bonds. Let's freaking go. Yields down, baby. Yes, I'll take it. Yields down 7.7 basis points. That's fantastic on the 10. Let's get under four under the drama.
gold jumps back over 4,000 uh on the drama. We could zoom in, see that spike. Although it's uh let's see if it actually holds any of that. Uh and then you've got somebody writes here, "Largest lithium deposit in world found in Nevada." Bro, nobody gives a flying f about your freaking lithium deposits.
I do appreciate the $2 you just donated to me to say that, but you should take that money and shove it into the Meet Kevin membership. You shove it into the Me Kevin membership because we got new lectures coming out. You get all eight courses, potentially a tax write off. You get every trade alert. You even get the stock tab.
This is a new feature that we're adding where we put our fundamental analysis on record in for whether it's Meta Netflix. We've the last two days. Trade desk, uh, Etsy, Tesla, I don't know, Restoration Hardware, whatever. You you get it all. In addition to the trade signals, which have been absolutely kicking butt.
Yesterday, we had an 80% hit rate. The rest of the week, we've been doing really, really well. Today's been great so far. I started the day not bullish on the cues. Uh many reasons for that. This is just sort of fuel to the fire, but you can see it. You could watch it in the alpha report and you'll see these things actually happen.
That's what you should take your $2 for and throw them into . Now, why do I not care about your lithium deposit in Nevada? Cuz it doesn't freaking matter. There are plenty of piles of dirt all across the whole damn world. And there's plenty of lithium in the ground. And there are plenty of rare earths in the ground.
The problem is processing the crap. And guess who processes 93% of it? Boy, China. Winnie the Pooh's got the honey pot. You want some of the honey? You better stop manufacturing. But it's going to take years for us to do that by the time we actually get the processes up. Trump's going to be out of office.
So it's going to take g to deal with. All right. So anyway, uh high-tech beta stocks lead sudden selloff. High-tech beta and consumer discretionary stocks were the biggest contributors to that sudden drop in stocks. Chip stocks fell 1.9% at 10 minutes, followed by a tech hardware group including Intel, Tesla, Coinbase, Super Micro, all fell more than 2%.
Toolmaker Stanley Black & Decker, which isn't named often, uh is uh also considered susceptible to tariffs. These are some comments coming out from the suits right here. There's also a headline article right now that says this time is different, usually ends the same way. Uh Trump says he has no reason to meet with Xiinping threatens new tariff counter measures.
Investors are flocking from stocks to bonds. You've got global stocks. Let's see here. So far, the expectation is that we'll get better than expected earnings in the third quarter. uh and that there won't be a bubble, but we'll see. We'll actually have to prove earnings. You've got Netflix earnings coming out on the 21st.
Shipments from Tesla Shanghai factory increased in September as China's car market kicks off its busy uh sales period. So, that's good. China slapped new port fees on US ships and started an antirust investigation into Qualcomm in its latest uh string of tit fortat attacks. You've got uh Levi Strauss warned that tariffs are starting to bite.
We analyzed uh Lulu earlier. We saw tariffs are whacking them. You've got uh leaders at Cororeweave sold more than $1 billion of stock after the lockup lifted. It's interesting. Okay. Trying to see if there's more here on news uh regarding China. So far so quiet. Let's listen in here for a brief moment.
Be expecting uh we would expect that to weigh on consumers a little bit as you're thinking about consumer goods coming over and then the who's this lady? What's her name? Retaliation to our retaliation on tech companies. So that's I think why we're seeing NASDAQ down. Uh we're seeing small cap down.
Small cap again has a lot of reliance on imports um especially for lower-end goods. We know the lower uh income consumer is struggling a little bit and so I think those are the things that we would be watching for as we see exactly where any tariff developments shake out. But ultimately I think again it comes back to just this around policy and how
I don't see what else. Come on baby come on give me some some commentary that matters. starting to shift capital into technologies that are designed to exploit and continue to exploit the space domain and protect infrastructure. Oh, freaking boring. The suits don't even want to talk about it or they're being boring about it.
But anyway, look, terrorists are bull crap. So, the cues are actually tanking right now. 136. Damn, we're going to start hitting stop losses for some people. Holy smokes. Especially, I mean, think about the catalyst you have right now. You're going into earnings. you're at like all-time freaking highs.
Uh if you want to see when I send a trade in, make sure you uh you're part of the Meet Kevin membership because if I send a trade in to sell some Nvidia or whatever, you know, you'll hear about it first in in the uh Meet Kevin membership. Uh because you'll get alerted right away. Uh that's how it works.
That's why we say that the alerts are included. But anyway, uh yeah, I mean, look, this continues to sell off. So, not only earnings coming up, you're at all-time highs. You've got Trump massively escalating with a massive power in the world, and China is just going to retaliate again against this. That's how it works.
You know, China goes from uh your escalation to more retaliation. So, it's not great. You've got Meta down another 2% here. You've got Tesla's going to go, look at that, straight freaking down. It's going to 414. You've got uh Apple down 1 and a half%, Dell's down one and a half%. Good lord, Rocket's green.
Rocket Mortgage is green. Bitcoin drops under 120. A lot of drama here thanks to Donnie D. Donny D and is stupid dar. What the hell, man? &.
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