저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
연준 6월 점도표 상향 조정(성장률 1.7→1.4%, 실업률 4.4→4.5%, PCE 2.7→3.0%)을 근거로 관세발 스태그플레이션 위험을 경고. 금리 인하 지연과 채권 금리 매력 상승으로 주식에 불리하며 경기침체 확률을 높였다고 주장. 주식 투자에 더 신중해야 한다는 견해.
다듬은 글
The central bank and chairman Jerome Powell delivered unfortunate news for stock market investors. They held interest rates steady and signaled that they're still planning to cut interest rates twice this year. But there was more information in the details that I'll share with you and describe why it's bad news for stock market investors.
I'll specifically detail all of the little changes that you may have missed in the bigger headlines that are covered by popular media outlets. I'll share with you the precise details that will deliver that insight that you need as a stock market investor going forwar, what I have here is the table of economic projections of the Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents as of the most latest update on June 18th, 2025.
And included in this is the change from their previous forecast from March. And that's the big detail that was unfortunate for stock market investors. Now, it's not really the central bank and Jerome Powell that's making these events. They're just evaluating what's happened to the economy since President Donald Trump announced the tariffs uh since taking office.
That's really the big change since their projections in March and their projections right now in June. Right. In April, you had the big announcement in uh the April 2nd deliberation day where President Donald Trump announced huge increases in tariffs that the United States is placing on its trading partners.
And there's been a lot of speculation on how that's going to impact the US economy, how it's going to impact the stock market, how it's going to impact individuals like you and me. And the central bank has seen the data, the first few months of data from those policies and they're giving you the data and their projections and their forecast and the updates based on what they're seeing.
So let's start with the change in real GDP for 2025. So this is overall economic growth. And in March, the central bank was forecasting the US economy would grow by 1.7% in 2025. That's not an incredible growth rate, but that's right around the stable equilibrium growth rate of the US economy. Not too fast, not too slow for the US economy.
It's a more developed economy. It's not going to grow as quickly as the less developed economies. And so a rate of around 1 1.5% to 2 1/2% is really the equilibrium growth rate of the US economy. Anywhere in that range is pretty solid. So in March the central bank thought 1.7%. But following the liberation day tariffs they now see it as just 1.4%.
So a huge decrease and almost 30% decrease in economic growth in for the US economy in just 3 months. So well not just 3 months but in just a few months time based on the impacts of the tariffs. So, I've been forecasting and I've been talking about how the tariffs are going to be an issue that slows down the US economy and really slows down economies worldwide because so many economies around the world are dependent on the US economy.
So, if the US is placing tariffs on its trading partners, it's going to hurt everyone worldwide. And so, we're already starting to see the impacts of those tariffs. So negative from 1.7 to 1.4%. And slower GDP growth is bad news for investors. It means businesses are not hiring as many people. It means businesses are not generating as much in profit and so it means shareholders are not gaining as much in their investments.
Additionally, the unemployment rate. In March, the Federal Reserve, the central bank was forecasting that the US economy would have an unemployment rate of 4.4%. They've now increased that to 4 and a.5%. So, a little bit higher unemployment. And if you watched my previous video on the unemployment in the US economy and how that's progressing, what we're seeing in the US economy is that businesses are not laying off people in large numbers.
So, they're holding on to workers for the most part. They might be cutting hours and cutting shifts, but they're not laying people off. They're not firing people because they had such a hard time hiring people to begin with. Remember the huge shortages of workers coming out of the pandemic. So, they don't want to fire people, but they also don't have too much work for people to do.
So, they're cutting hours and they're not hiring new people. That's really the area where the US economy is slowing down the most is in new hires. Businesses are not looking to hire very many new people because they're trying to just keep their employment stable and weather this storm and make it to the other side and get more clarity on the US economy and where it's heading following these tariffs.
Okay, moving down. PCE inflation. So, this is producer inflations. This is what businesses are paying for their goods they're importing and that is up significantly as well. In March, the central bank was forecasting 2.7% inflation in this measurement and now they're forecasting 3% inflation in this measurement.
So, a bigger increase in inflation, which is also something that I have been talking about and something that I have been forecasting because businesses have to pay a higher cost of goods when they're importing these things from all of these countries outside of the United States. They have to pay higher prices to bring those things in.
And so some of that they will absorb, some of that the manufacturers will pay, some of that will be translated through the currency fluctuations, and some of that they'll pass along to customers via higher prices. So everyone across the supply chain, across that whole ecosystem will face a higher cost and so that will increase inflation and the central bank is forecasting that as well.
And then core PCE inflation which excludes some items is also forecast to increase from 2.8% to 3.1%. Okay. So just as a reminder the central bank their goal is to keep inflation at around 2%. Okay. They're willing to tolerate fluctuations a little bit higher, a little bit below temporarily, but their goal is to keep inflation at around 2%.
And as you can see in both measurements that they deem important, inflation is much higher than 2%. So 3 and 3.1%. And what that means is they're not going to cut interest rates or they're not interested in cutting interest rates as long as they forecast inflation remaining well above their target 2% range.
Now they also suggest that inflation will be higher next year uh from 2.2% to 2.4% 4% and also unemployment will be higher next year from 4.3% to 4.5%. And economic growth will be slower next year from 1.8% to 1.6%. So across the board uh the figures that are important to stock market investors and businesses and individuals is worsening and that's just since March.
So it's understandable that the federal funds uh they don't expect to cut interest rates by all that much. Right now in March they were forecasting interest rates to remain around 3.9% and that stayed the same. And then for next year they expected interest rates to come down to 3.4%. They now expect interest rates to come down but only to 3.6%.
And for the year after that, they're forecasting interest rates from uh uh 3.1% to 3.4%. So interest rates also across the board expected to be much higher than they were previously thought just a few months ago. And that's a direct result of the tariffs because there's going to be a higher cost of goods sold.
the businesses are going to need to pay higher prices to import these goods and the supply chains are too complex to be able to just say, "Okay, you know what? Instead of producing products in Vietnam, we're going to produce in the US or instead of producing our products in China, we're going to produce them in Ohio." Right?
It's too complex. It takes too much time to just snap your fingers and change your production. It takes months, if not years, to move your production from one country to another. So, in the meantime, businesses are going to pay a higher cost of importing these goods. And some of that will result in higher prices paid.
When you go to the store, you're going to see higher prices on everything from cars to car insurance to TVs to laptop computers to furniture to accessories and clothing. And we're going to see more of that towards the end of this year because that's when the goods that are going to face those higher tariffs are going to start hitting stores.
The goods you're seeing inside stores right now, those were imported probably a few months ago before the tariffs were enacted. So businesses haven't yet begun to increase prices by all that much. But by the end of the year, you will start to see noticeable increases in prices that you see on the store shelves.
All right. So, more specifically, why this is bad news for stock market investors is because interest rates or government bonds are an alternative to stocks. So, as an investor, let's say you've got $100,000 and you're trying to make a choice. Should I buy stocks with the $100,000 or should I put it in a certificate of deposit which is almost zero risk or in a government bond which if you get it inflation protected it's also almost zero risk and you can get 4 and a half close to 5% return on your money via government bonds or via certificate of deposit.
And so you're going to be less likely to buy stocks and you're going to be more likely on the margin to buy bonds. And so there's going to be a considerable shift in money moving from stocks to bonds. Or that incremental dollar instead of going into stocks will go into bonds. Or if the money was already in certificates of deposit and already in money market accounts and already in government bonds, they will stay there instead of moving to stocks and specific stocks or index funds etc.
Because comparatively speaking, government bonds or savings accounts or non-stock investments, non-equity investments will become more attractive, especially as the risks of a recession are rising. Right? All of those things I'm mentioning here do increase the risk of a recession. Even though the central bank is not forecasting a recession, they are forecasting increases in unemployment, increases in inflation, and decreases in economic output, which all point to a slowing economy and rising risks of recession.
So that's what I wanted to share with you in this video is the outlook from the central bank and how it can impact stock market investors. I would say on the margin this should uh this makes me a little more cautious in looking for stocks to invest in. It makes me a little more uh it makes the probability of recession a little higher than I was previously projecting. Uh not just for this year but also for next year. .
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