Should You Buy Micron Stock Before June 25? | MU Stock Analysis

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마이크론은 AI 수요로 매출·이익이 급증했으나 매출의 33% 이상을 자본지출에 쓰고 있어 투자자 우려가 있음. 2025년 6월 25일 실적 발표 전 매출은 상회 가능성이 높지만 매출총이익률은 하회 가능성이 있음. 내재가치 131달러 vs 현재가 122달러로 소폭 저평가, 선행 PER 약 13~14배. 연초부터 매수 의견 유지. 거시 불확실성 때문에 실적 발표 후 1~2일 뒤 매수하거나 절반씩 분할 매수를 제시.

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01. Semiconductor designer, manufacturer, and seller Micron Technology June 25th, 2025. A lot of investors are asking me if they should buy the stock before the company announces earning should look out for from the company before it announces earnings. the big picture items you need to check out, you need to look out for when the company announces its results.

02. which calculates a fair value for Micron Technology stock. I'll do all that in this brief video. So, let's get starte, when Micron most recently announced quarterly results, their revenue, profits, and everything was increasing very significantly. Revenue increased to 8 billion, up from 5.8 billion in the same quarter.

03. The prior year, their operating income jumped to 1.773 billion, up from 191 million. The operating profit margin jumped to 22%, up from 3.3%. Of course, the company was recovering from cyclical lows as the semiconductor industry booms as a result of . Nearly every company I'm following in the AI industry is forecasting a boom in demand for its products.

04. But also, nearly every company I'm following in the semiconductor industry is demonstrating or telling investors that everything outside of AI is not doing very well. So all of those legacy semiconductors, things that go into nonAI laptops, nonAI desktop computers, nonAI smartphones and older generation technology that includes semiconductors.

05. Those categories are not performing well. Demand in those categories are not growing very significantly at all, if growing. So it's the AI boom that's fueling growth in these categories. So another big thing to look out for from Micron when it announces its results is the capital expenditures. This is what has investors a little bit cautious with Micron Technology as well as Intel and other companies that are doing the semiconductor manufacturing and designing in-house.

06. So most of these companies that are thriving in the semiconductor industry are those that are design only or manufacturer only. So companies like Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom are doing really well because they only deal with the designing of the semiconductors. They don't do the manufacturing. And then companies like Micron and Intel are not performing as well.

07. Well, Micron is is doing relatively well compared to Intel. But one of the main reasons why Micron has not performed even better is because of how much money the company is spending on capital expenditures in building new manufacturing facilities, new semiconductor manufacturing facilities and upgrading the technology.

08. So for Q2, they spent $3.1 billion and their free cash flow came in at $857 million. They ended the quarter with $9.6 billion in cash. So if you divide the second quarter capex which was 3.1 billion compared to revenue of 8 billion that's a large percentage of capex to revenue right that's over 33% that's over onethird of their revenue they're spending on capital expenditures that has investors a little bit concerned because these are things that they're not going to be built they're not going to be completed for a couple of years especially the company's manufacturing facilities in Idaho go at New York.

09. Uh the new ones, they're expanding into uh those uh regions and they're not going to start producing from these manufacturing facilities for a couple of years. So, you're not going to see the return on investment until a few years later. And investors are not 100% certain that demand for these products are going to remain robust throughout these next few years.

10. So, the company's forecasting a continued increase in revenue for the upcoming quarter, forecasting 8.8 billion in revenue. That would be up about 10% from the 8 billion it reported in Q2. I would say given the data that's come out since the company made this forecast, I would lean more towards the company beating this revenue outlook than missing this revenue outlook.

11. However, with the gross profit margin at 35 a.5%, I would say it's more likely the company misses the gross margin outlook and uh reports a lower gross profit margin given the higher cost of goods sold that we're seeing throughout the supply chains as a result of the increases in tariffs and how they've disrupted supply chains worldwide.

12. So the good news for Micron stock investors is the company is generating very strong cash flow to support those investments in upgrading and expanding their manufacturing capabilities. In the 6 months that ended February 27th, 2025, the company generated $7.2 2 billion in cash flow from operations and they spent $7.3 billion on property, plant, and equipment, which primarily goes to their manufacturing facilities.

13. So, they're offsetting their cap their capex with the free cash flow or the cash flow from operations the business generates. It's a big difference from Intel, which is not generating positive or very positive to the degree that Micron is in terms of cash flow from operations. And so they're borrowing money and they're utilizing existing cash to spend on their Kappa X and that's hurting the business.

14. It's hurting the balance sheet. Whereas Micron, they're supporting themselves. They're spending as much as they're generating in expanding the company's prospects. So now let's look at valuation. So what I have here is Micron Technology. I calculated the intrinsic value per share for this business is $131.

15. The current market price is $122. So, it's still undervalued, but not by a large amount. So, these charts, I get them all from fiscal.ai, formerly known as finch.io. And the forward price to earnings ratio for Micron Technology is 13. let's say 14, which is a relatively inexpensive uh historically speaking, this is about uh price that you've been able to buy Micron Technology at going back several years, but the company has better prospects over the next 5 years than it's had arguably at any point in the previous decade or previous 15 years.

16. And that's because making the company's semiconductors increase in demand. Micron Technologies semiconductors go into these data centers optimized for AI. They're also going into these laptops and desktop computers that are increasing in computational power because the AI that's going into these uh computers and laptops are requiring more power.

17. And so Micron is selling more components. They're selling components at a higher average selling price, which is increasing the profitability for the company. So overall, I've had Micron Technology stock rated as a buy all year long in 2025. And I last updated that recommendation on June 11th, 2025.

18. Now, to answer the question, should you buy this stock before earnings or after earnings? I would say given the increase in volatility of the macro economy, given the rising tariffs and the global supply chain, we've had a new conflict now arising between Israel and Iran. All of those uncertainties and the valuation of Micron Technology, I would say makes the choice uh more prudent to wait until after the company announces earnings and then buy the stock.

19. Or if you're wanting to reduce the risk from both sides, you can buy half before earnings and half after earnings. Personally, if I was planning to buy Micron Technology stock, I would wait until the company announces earnings. I would wait about a day or two, let the market digest the impacts of those earnings results, and then I'll make the purchase at that point in time. .