저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 비트코인이 연 44% 복리수익률을 기록해 다른 자산 대비 우월하며 새 자산군의 초입이라고 주장한다. 비트코인은 위험선호(risk on)와 위험회피(risk off) 자산 성격을 모두 가진다고 보며, 2024년 반감기 이후 공급 증가율 둔화를 금과 비교해 강조한다. 과거 사이클 수익률 체감 패턴을 근거로 다음 사이클 약 360% 상승, BTC 약 $33,600 가능성을 제시하나, 반감기와 가격의 상관관계에 대한 정량적 근거는 없다고 인정한다. 현물 ETF 자금 유입이 금 ETF를 앞설 수 있다고 언급한다.
다듬은 글
um and if you look at bitcoin's compound annual rate of return it's 44% over that time time versus I think it's 4 and a half% for all other assets combined uh so we think that Superior returns uh uh are going to be there this is the beginning this is just the beginning of this new asset class um yes and the volatility is coming down um as we look at are we going to have the same returns from Peak to trough going forward perhaps not um but we've come a long way and and we still think we have miles to go a in today's video Kathy woodf founder and CEO of RK invest dods into the importance of crypto adoption why she is so bullish on bitcoin ETF macro factors a price target of $1.5 million areas in the industry she is excited about and more so without wasting any time let's dive into the video many people think of Bitcoin as a risk on asset and it's certainly has traded like that over time uh but we have been looking at it as both risk on and risk off uh and I can tell you when we first uh when we first learned that in 2015 uh when we took our first position in uh Bitcoin via gbtc Bitcoin was about $250 and many people were making fun of us at the time thinking oh they're they're new we had just started our funds in October uh 14 oh they're new they're just trying to gain attention this is a marketing gimmick and so we were really on the spot first of all we had done a lot of research we didn't think uh we thought there was real investment Merit but we're watching like a hawk its moves and it back then uh Greece was threatening to leave the European Union and every time there was a flare up uh you know and and a fear of another European sovereign debt crisis Bitcoin inched up and so we've been looking at it as both a risk on and a risk off asset for quite some time and the Regional Bank crisis last year uh kind of uh confirmed uh that point of view that here Bitcoin um more than doubled I think more than doubled as Regional Banks were imploding so uh I think many people are beginning to say as they learn what this is wow could it be both a risk on and a risk off asset we think so Bitcoin recorded one of its strongest quarters in the past 3 years in q1 but analysts warn this could lead to significant volatility in the leadup to the Bitcoin having be prepared for some screwy price action as we head into the having Bitcoin experienced a 64% price increase during the first quarter of 2024 January 1 to March 31 its third best quarter over the past 3 years as per take research data at the beginning of the quarter it stood at $ 44,1 72 on January 1 and by the quarter's end it had reached $ 71,2 however Desmond argues that the consistent pattern of outperforming price performance in weekly and monthly closings signals unprecedented market conditions never before have we seen such a strong weekly monthly and quarterly close above previous atth only to retrace so far so fast Desmond declared the Bitcoin having is just 15 days away set to happen on April 20 and is stirring speculation it could trigger further upward movement in the second quarter of 2024 due to the expected Supply shock popular pseudonymous crypto analyst Rec Capital believes that Bitcoin may not follow the same trajectory as it did in the previous quarter and at best it could see resistance Levels Close to the alltime highs of the first quarter BTC May consolidate between $60,000 and7 ,000 for the coming weeks going into the Hing and Beyond W Capital said while the launch of spot Bitcoin ETF on January 11 by several of the world's largest Asset Management firms has heightened interest in speculation around bitcoin's price some foresee a potential narrative shift most likely not Bitcoin Michael vop said preing Bitcoin interest spot ETF launch causing additional liquidity this is slowing down back to normal price levels after which narrative is likely going to Surge um as far as the having I think what we're trying to do in in terms of Education uh as we have this new investor base is say you know what for the first time uh the the the supply growth of Bitcoin it as it drops from 1.9% per year to roughly .9% uh per year um come April uh it's going it's hitting an important Milestone um the the supply of uh gold has been growing very long term on average 1% so now I mean it's just marginally but it is below the supply growth uh of gold so um we're we're trying to use that um to uh help people understand a lot of the reason that gold became such an a successful asset class is because the supply growth was fairly controlled especially relative to uh money growth out there in various regimes in including our own um and uh and so I think I I don't see any reason why the having won't be won't cause the same Dynamic that it has in in the previous Cycles especially as we're going out there with that message um and it doesn't happen right away April and boom uh and it it usually doesn't happen that way so maybe they'll develop some impatience but um uh we think that it um it emphasizes one of the core features of Bitcoin and the reason it is a a a a risk off asset as well as a risk on asset the Bitcoin price has risen around 68% since the last Bitcoin having in 2020 according to trading VI data and is currently trading around the $66,000 mark the 20124 Bitcoin having will happen in less than 3 weeks if historical chart patterns were to repeat bitcoin's current $66,000 price would reach $434,000 $280 per coin by the 2028 having if it performs similarly to the current cycle nonetheless bitcoin's posst having rallies have seen diminishing returns throughout the years until the first having in 2012 Bitcoin increased from having virtually no value to $12.50 and over 12,400 increase bitcoin price jumped 5,000 200% to $650 by the 2016 having and 1,000 200% to 8,000 $500 by the 2020 having thus bitcoin's average priced rallies go by 45% each cycle to the current 6 58% if this diminishing returns Trend repeats Bitcoin will deliver a 360% rally during the next cycle resulting in a roughly $33,600 BTC price at the 2028 having considering the having and price trends from a very rigorous quantitative point of view there is no evidence supporting a positive correlation between the having event and BTC price but history can be interpreted in many different ways I certainly hope for $435,000 by 2020 8 but won't put too much into it a sixf fig BTC price appears even more possible if Bitcoin ETF overtake gold ETF which is something that could happen in the next two years according to report analyst Eric balunis additionally Bitcoin ETF are growing at a much quicker Pace than gold ETF did when they first appeared in 2004 in fact Bitcoin is speedr running gold's price five-fold Bitcoin is basically just 5x speedr running Gold's trajectory the last 10 years of Bitcoin look a bit like a squished version of Gold's last 50 no wonder some people get salty
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