저자: Kevin · 외국인
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시카고 연준 보고서를 인용해 통화긴축 지연효과의 75%가 이미 발생했다고 보며, 고용 충격은 아직 절반 이상 남았다고 분석. 2024년 중반 인플레이션 2% 복귀 및 무(無)침체 연착륙 시나리오를 제시. 장단기 금리 역전은 연준의 명확한 가이던스로 장기채 수요가 몰린 결과로 해석. 금리 하락 시 성장주(테슬라 등)에 유리하고 필수소비재(맥도날드 등)는 고평가로 하락 전망. 장기채 레버리지 ETF(TMF) 롱 관점 제시.
다듬은 글
holy smokes you won't believe what the Federal Reserve just said and forecast about when inflation is going to go back to two percent what the lagged effects are going to be where the most pain is going to be and how that could lead to a recession and more this is a good piece and there's a lot to talk about on this one and we'll also talk about certain stocks and valuations so buckle up this is a deep one let's go this video is brought to you by stream yard because I recorded it with stream yard go to meet kevin.com stream yard to learn more about how you could record live edit and cotton posts later amazing recording studio great for almost anything you do with video in your office check out stream yard go to metcavin.com streamyard or meet kevin.com yes I already finished this cup of coffee for the haters who are like oh my God just cup of coffee is empty but it's branded okay my I I generally make two cups of coffee because when I finish one I don't want to get up to get the other one and then I actually had my son refill this one so this is actually a third cup of coffee anyway point is yes I'm flailing this this one around because it's empty but it's branded okay sponsored hashtag paid promotion welcome to the Chicago fed the Chicago fed just released this particular letter right here and they talk about the past and future effects of recent monetary policy tightening what's really fascinating about this is well mostly we're not going to read all of it because well that just there's a little too much econ in this one and as much as I love econ let's just say there's a limit so we're going to start with a little abstract and then we're gonna go to the conclusion and we'll look at a few charts okay so let's start here and and the conclusion is actually pretty wild now it's not to say that Jay Powell is going to listen to this 100 but let's think about it a little bit because there are some big things that they say about inflation here so we estimate how much of the impact from the fed's current tightening cycle is yet to be felt in the economy in both absolute relative terms to do this we use some fancy models which uh they explain the models later but basically they use some amazing some fancy stuff and they estimate that the majority of the effects of output and inflation or on an output and inflation that higher interest rates have had in other words the lag they suggest which keep in mind the Bears are telling us that because of the lag defects of the fed's hiking policy we're screwed like it's going to take 18 months for you to feel all the effects maybe some say that because of the clear communication of the Federal Reserve now we might actually start feeling these effects much more quickly and based on this piece by the Chicago fed they suggest that the majority of the these lag defects of monetary policy titing have already occurred and that policy and they'll go through exactly what percent they think in just a moment but it's about 75 percent that they think has already occurred and there's some important implications for that they think that the policy tightening that has been implemented will how however continue to exert further restraint in the quarters ahead amounting to downward pressure of three percentage points on the level of GDP and two and a half percentage points on the level of CPI tightening effects on the labor market manifest more slowly so more than half of the policy impact on total total hours worked is yet to come now that's actually interesting because it feeds into the leftover part that the Bears do talk about the Bears say hey look it is actually the jobs Market that is really where the pain can begin in this recession that we may be going into the reason people believe that is because recessions can really start for a few different reasons they could begin from cyclical cyclical reasons they could begin from uh industry reasons but what this uh impact is is potentially likely to be from uh that is through this cycle is from an impo oh yeah okay I just want to make sure the bike is right I thought the bike was on my airpods for a momentum like as much as I like listening to myself on these things I hate listening to myself but uh they're functional for that but uh or if I have to put somebody you know another interview on or something like that boy oh boy in terms of speaking through these things the audio is crap so anyway so this type of recession what people believe uh is that we would actually begin the recession by having pain in the jobs Market paying in the jobs Market would then lead to lower spend lower spend would then lead to lower earnings per share at companies and obviously less output and then potentially thereby layoffs and then you have this cycle of pain right where you get pain in the jobs Market lower spend paying the companies more pain in the jobs Market you basically have this self-fulfilling disaster and the risky thing here about the Chicago letter is they say look we felt 75 of the tightening on GDP on CPI already but only 25 or sorry only 50 of the pain on labor well I guess they say technically here so more than half of the policy in yeah I guess that's actually a little less than 50 see more than half of the impact on labor Is Yet To Come according to the model's forecast the policy tightening that's already been done is sufficient to bring inflation back near the fed's Target by the middle of 2024 while avoiding a recession now look the FED has to do no more and we can avoid a recession as long as the FED essentially stops hiking because there is still a very large lag effect on labor the effects on CPI and GDP are already functioning well now let's go jump to the end and we'll look at some of the charts here so if we go to the end over here we look at their conclusion they suggest here that they rely on expectations of monetary policy and so this is their argument a little bit more of a forward-looking model expectations are pretty important in fact there's a strong argument that the entire reason the Federal Reserve is actually suggesting that there might be one more hike is because they're not trying to Signal they're done here's the problem once they signal they're done as soon as the bed says we're done what do you do you license locking in higher yields on the 10-year treasury or even the 20 year right the longer end of the Curve once you license locking in the longer end of the curve which is a fancy way of saying it just basically saying 10 20 30 year bonds right once you give people a license to buy those in other words hey we've reached Peak yields go ahead and buy the long bonds something really incredible happens once you do that guess what happens once once you let people buy these you let people buy these then what ends up happening demand goes up for long bonds like the longer term bonds I should say not being bullish bonds but the longer term bonds when demand goes up for the longer term bonds what ends up happening uh yields fall uh on on these longer term bonds right and that what does that actually end up doing it loosens uh Financial conditions so the problem with that is the Federal Reserve is trying to put pressure on markets by having higher yields 10 20 30 year mortgage yields which are mortgage rates which tend to follow the 10-year treasury you need these yields higher so you could have this broader tightening of the economy that's what the FED wants they want this tithing as soon as you say the peak is in you say to people buy it and you can now lock in these longer term bonds without the risk that values these bonds is going to or are going to continue to fall which right now they kind of have continued to fall I mean consider what we've got on the 10-year you had Bill Ackman short the tech basically the tens right around two point or 4.2 uh we're at 4.27 right now in terms of yields which actually means he's up because the inverse relationship we recently went uh a little we went down a little bit we've been up a little bit we had all this giant roller coaster here I personally think they need to go down from here that's why I'm a long TMF uh which might be a little early but that's because I think we're we're within one hike of being done which I think creates this interesting opportunity to maybe go long TMF uh which is essentially a a leveraged ETF for going long the uh the long end of the treasury curve like the 10 20 30s and uh it and as soon as the FED does admit we're done TMF should do very well but we have to wait for that moment so anyway uh they're they're arguing that they use their policy here or or their models to try to understand what's going on with expectations a shift in policy making over time that puts more emphasis on the expected policy path such as a heavier Reliance on explicit forward guidance may have made the expectations Channel more important and thus shortened the apparent lags of transmission this is important and it's not to say that like oh this time is different but one thing that factually because again you could totally still be walking into a recession right it's worth knowing them but one thing that is dramatically different in this cycle compared to the Past Federal Reserve tightening Cycles is that the FED is much more what is APM f i see the comments ATM it's just ticker TMF ticker TMF just type that in you'll learn more about it go read the perspectives anyway uh so in past tightening Cycles from the Federal Reserve you didn't actually have this extremely clear guidance of what was to come uh in terms of hey we're going to uh hike until we believe that expectations are set to bring us back to an average of two percent inflation uh and they're very clear in fact pretty much every single time they've hiked for the last you know year and a half they're like we probably have to do more you know here's our estimate but we probably have to do more and some actually argue the fact that the FED has told us so aggressively we have to do more is why the yield curve is so inverted now people get mad at me when I say this they're like well Kevin Kevin don't don't explain away the yield curve okay the yield curve is basically always right especially when it's this inverted uh that's true when when you just look at the yield curve in general there has been uh you know there have been like you look at 1998 you sort of had a false inversion uh you know people will say like oh but that was you know really close to the.com Bubble possibly you look at 1994 you almost had an inversion so they've been some cases where it's like it's not a hundred percent perfect in in a very quick term uh but yeah otherwise I mean short of short of these these little asterisks let's just be very clear about it anytime you have an inversion that's this deep you've had a recession okay there's there's no mincing it here you get a recession after you're this inverted the one way that people try to explain this yield curve being disinverted though is I want you to think about this and it's kind of a little bit of a wild thing to think about but if let's put it this way okay if somebody came to you uh and said uh so if someone someone said hey uh yields are going up for the next two years which is roughly what the FED has been suggesting is that it's going to take until 2025 to get rid of this inflation if somebody said that then you probably would have substantial risk uh in two-year treasuries right in shorter term treasuries why would you buy uh a two-year treasury which what's a two-year treasure yielding right now let me see to your treasury the two-year treasury right now is at five percent four nine nine seven okay okay why would you buy a two-year treasury watch this two-year treasury what does that get you five percent yield you're like oh well Kevin of course I'm gonna buy that for a five percent yield no you don't buy the two-year treasury for a five-year yield you know what you do for a five-year yield you get a money market and then you get your five percent yield guess what the money market no risk of higher for longer because basically Cash There's No risk of your bond losing value because the fed's going up higher so in other words what happens less people buy the two-year now the 10-year is a little different the 10 year plus is a little different that's 20 or 30 year right because you're like look I can get through the next two years and then have Juiced Returns on 10 20 30-year bonds for a long time I mean consider the 10 year right now is 4.27 that is you buy it right now you can get 4.27 uh you know for the next 10 freaking years it's amazing you look at the 20-year uh oh this is this is just so wonky you ready for the 10 or the 20 year 4.55 percent right now and then let's look at the 30 year 30 year 30 year right now uh that's the 30-year mortgage 30-year treasury okay 30-year right now 4.36 percent so again point is you want to lock in these higher yields for a very long term you go by the longer end of the curve because eventually you expect eventually the fed's going to cut rates and when they cut rates what happens these long bonds become more valuable so in other words when cut uh 10 20 30 become much more valuable and then yields fall right but the two-year well it might take two years to get those cuts so you're not guaranteed well guaranteed with an asterisk that capital appreciation so what does that do so more people buy the long bonds than the short bonds okay well what does that cause an inverted yield curve kind of crazy so uh that's that's at least uh my thinking because you have again more buying on the 10 20 30.
what happens when more people buy the 10 20 30. yield goes down price up yield down so the long bonds yielding less because they're more desirable for that long-term investment the capital appreciation you could get through the feds to your hiking cycle expectations are literally manipulating the yield curve in exactly the way you would expect like ignore ignore the potential for a recession for a moment and I'm not saying like put your blinders on oh there will be recession just think for a moment let's just say some like Jesus Christ came down and said there will be no recession thank you God right okay okay why then would the yield curve be inverted well because at the same time basically you know the econ Jesus Christ is coming down and going by the 10 20 30 year bonds don't buy the two-year buy money markets instead so like in simple English that that factor right there would literally give you the inverted yield curve which is weird because people are like but wait the yield curve is supposed to say recession but again if Jesus Christ came down said no recession you would still have this inverted yield curve because of what I just described which is kind of crazy because again a lot of people it's definitely signaling your session yes maybe it is maybe that the the lagging pain in jobs is going to drive us into recession it's entirely possible uh let's keep going though because they do talk about when they think uh inflation will be over so okay here we go their their latest data now about when inflation will come down you ready for this this is based on their survey this is a good one too the surveys whatever models suggest that the effects of past tightening on inflation have almost run their course however however skipping the econ talk here headline CPI inflation will fall below 2.3 percent in 2024.
this 2.3 percent rate of CPI inflation historically translates to around two percent of inflation according to pce suggesting the fomc's target would be approximately met by the middle of 2024. the abatement of inflation occurs then without a recession as real GDP growth remains in positive territory throughout the projection although the model does not forecast the significant slowdown in hours worked as a result the model predicts that three-month t-bill rates should be unchanged for the rest of the year before gradually declining in 2024 this is that higher for longer thing where it's like get that gradual decline right unlike the counterfactual exercise shown in figure two these forecasts do not isolate the effects of monetary policy however it is important to note that there are white uncertainty bands around the forecast whatever that's basically a fancy way saying look at our uncertainty bands okay so this is where they're like okay is a recession possible yes but look at where the uncertainty bands say it's possible basically the end to beginning of 2024 but that would only be that tiny little segment right there so yeah that chance is still there but it seems like we should be at a positive real rate of one to two percent over the next two years yes we know the Atlanta fed now real GDP has is at like 5.6 but we don't even need that we just need to be below Trend which you know if if trend is like right there you know two and a half percent GDP we just want to be below that that's the fed's goal and then here's their projection for headline inflation which suggests by the beginning of 2025 yes maybe inflation could be as high as say 2.4 or quite frankly as low as you know 1.1 percent probably be right around two percent is is their projection look at some of the other bands right here cumulative effects on hours worked you can see most of the pain for that jobs effect and these are very small percentages mind you most of that pain really expected to be over here 24 25 there's your lag defect you've got uh you know some other charts you can kind of look at here these are these are less important when I went through this the first time uh but I did think this was interesting look at where they expect rates to actually start falling you ready for this basically November that's where they think you're you hit your Peak and then from there it's basically falling rates all of 2024.
guess what that's going to be really good for falling rates in 2024. okay you ready for this this is going to piss a lot of people off again it's gonna be really good for those cyclical interest rate sensitive sectors gee I wonder what some of those might sound like how about Tesla and phase and some of the other delicious interest rate sensitive companies guess what companies that's bad for how about those Staples like Dollar General Dollar Tree Hershey's Kellogg Walgreens Paramount Pfizer oh how interesting all of those I just read off have hit new 52-week lows at some point today how interesting that's kind of what we were expecting would happen at the beginning of the year now one I will be wrong about I I will I will say has not hit that damage yet is quite frankly and I'm a little like I'm still pissed off about it because I think it's still coming McDonald's I think McDonald's is literally overvalued trash right now absolutely literally overvalued trash I'm sorry okay look I'm not I'm not here to give you licensed Financial advice in this video uh but I'm gonna give you my real opinion here we can even look at the earnings for it I am here to tell you that this is brought to you by stream yard go to metcavin.com streamyard or meet kevin.com it doesn't really matter and learn more about stream yard in fact I think we're getting rid of the whole met Kevin too many people have been telling me Kevin saving the one letter is not worth it just stop with the Met Kevin it's confusing okay all right so we're gonna do away with it I just have to untrain myself for years of that now so we're gonna just go go to meet kevin.com stream yard I thought it was cool because people wanted shorter domains and you know the whole thing is like it's a URL shortener met Kevin shorter and people like but I don't get it you're you're meet Kevin like anyway McDonald's it's overpriced trash uh I'm sorry it's just it's just my opinion and I think their stock needs to come down substantially I think that you're going to deal with like the one place you're going to deal with the real pain of the leftover effects of inflation are going to be the fact that you're starting to see at restaurants people finally start pulling back one of the things the beige book told us yesterday is that people were starting to pull back on restaurant spend that restaurant spend was was flattening and basically every kind of eating out was was slowing down and flattening uh and uh on top of this idea of restaurants Ben flattening you have higher food costs you have you have wages that still are playing catch up right and I don't think that actually ends up leading to any kind of you know wage price spiral that we've totally missed a wage price spiral in the cycle but it does lead to pain for companies like McDonald's but let's just look at McDonald's for a hot minute here okay so if I look look at McDonald's for a hot minute what I'm gonna do is I'm going to look at the valuation of this company it's probably going to piss me off it's been a while since I've looked at it but you know what we should be real and go look at it for a month so what do we got here so McDonald's is looking at generating 11.54 of eps the sucker's trading for 275.44 divided by 11.54 that puts you at a 23.86 peg okay 86 those patties McDonald's you guys are about to get screwed it's just my take I could be wrong uh but anyway that means for McDonald's 23.86 okay and we're going to save that and what we're going to do is we're gonna go we're going to look at the growth rate that's for the end of this year growth rate going forward 7.8 8.6 10.3 12.5 I think it'll be less but whatever that puts you at 39.2 uh as a as growth over the next four years divided by four nine point eight percent uh average growth expected compounded annual for the next four years okay 23.86 divided by 9.8 that's putting me at 2.4 Peg paying a 2-4 Peg for McDonald's why it's because it's seen as an inflationary safety play people still see it as a play that suggests a world of inflation's high people are gonna not be able to buy miso Sham in a cheesecake and they're gonna have to forego on that beautiful sweet brown bread which is just molasses dyed white bread and they're gonna end up having to suffer McDonald's so it's some institutional hedge okay this is in contrast to a company that actually grows uh and that's going to be a company like Tesla which Wall Street expects to grow uh somewhere around you know 20 29 per year I think that estimate quite frankly is on the low side but whatever it's in contrast to a company like this or a company uh like uh like a uh like an end phase which is basically selling in like Value World I mean look at you really want a true comparison you look at you want to know the cheap ones right now the cheap ones right now on a PEG ratio basis that are actually growing companies that matter that aren't just inflation Hedges uh that are companies that benefit from interest rates going down the the list of the cheapest ones simple okay so I'm going to sort this I have a thing called the kpeg it's basically the Kevin's adjusted growth rate and then the peg we talk about it in the course member live streams anyway the cheap ones uh end phase ubiquity TSM all of them under one with a kpeg uh actually mostly right around one with a regular PEG ratio as well Etsy PayPal ERJ AMD uh surprisingly actually Nvidia meta Disney although Disney you have to be careful about all of those under 1.5 Tesla's like a two you know but but that's that's also being generous with you know well I should say conservative with the growth 30 to 35 but McDonald's just ripoff man anyway so I think it'll suffer just like the rest of these suckers uh that we've expected that the Staples will end up suffering again the reason people are in the Staples is because they see these suckers as an inflation hedge and uh the days are numbered again have done well here's the chart of McDonald's they've done very very well it's very upsetting to me because it means I was wrong but I'll be right eventually so anywho uh oh Starbucks that's a really good question so you know I actually the thing about Starbucks is I find that they're expensive uh over eighty dollars they're at 95 bucks I've actually personally been waiting for Starbucks to come into like the 80 price range but the reason I was excited about Starbucks going into the 80 price range was because I thought I would be able to pick up a good deal on Starbucks uh around 80 bucks and then have cheap exposure to China because Starbucks like covertly doubled their restaurants their stores right their coffee shops in uh in China during the pandemic like nobody paid attention to this and they just like overnight it feels like doubled their stores in China problem is now China is basically in the dumps so you know that that is now less desirable even less desirable which is not great because it's kind of like wait a minute crap that's what you wanted uh you know Chipotle I will say they have managed to really hold up I think I'm not going to invest in them because I still think you have some like a staple exposure here but they have the growth they really have the growth uh you look at their growth rate you're projecting a growth rate at this company uh 21.6 over the next few years which is really really incredible uh if I take their EPS 1954 let's see here 1954 projected Wall Street EPS uh my numb lock turned off what is going on ah Kevin there we go 1954-12 divided by 43 38 uh divided by 21 but she had 2.1 so still still a little up there you know I'm okay like up to a two I think things get sticky like apple ran up to a three for a while there and I think they're actually still around like two eight it's too expensive that's why I had to I had to reduce my exposure to Apple it just got way too like once these numbers these pegs get too high I'm like yeah no thanks paying way too much money for growth but then I also have to figure out what industry they're in and what potential for more growth there is after that so anyway thanks so much for watching this segment check out uh stream yard by going back kevin.com streamyard and we'll see you actually
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