저자: Kevin · 외국인
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ISM 서비스 지수 상승과 유가 급등이 인플레이션 기대를 자극해 주식 변동성이 커졌다고 설명. 뉴욕연은 기초 물가 추세가 2.8% 아래로 하락했고 5년 BEI는 큰 변동 없음. 연준 기준금리 종점은 5.46% 수준이며 11월 추가 인상 확률은 약 46%로 동전 던지기 수준. 연준이 인상을 멈추면 10년물 금리가 하락할 가능성이 있으나 연준이 이를 원치 않아 장단기 금리 역전을 유지하는 것으로 봄. 근본적 변화는 없다는 결론.
다듬은 글
holy moly the stock market is really upset today and you know what it quite frankly should be because there are a few things that are really exciting people's inflation expectations and in the near term it's obviously going to lead to more volatility especially especially and it just it drives me nuts when you see this kind of stuff you guys remember Bullard right what is what does that make you think of Mr Bullard oh you think he's that the fat right no he quit from the FED he quit to go be the dean of some school and guess what today we get headlines Bullard suggests additional rate hike based on recent data Bullard suggests fed should hike again it's like bro don't even work there anymore but it's bearish so gotta use Mr Bollard on the headlines but now look there there are some some things that are creating at least some heart palpitations on the inflation side and this is normal nobody expected this to be straight down on inflation most specifically oil oil is creating some real issues because oil is not just that headline energy read we get inflation it flows through to everything it makes Trucking more expensive shipping more expensive commuting more expensive plastic's more expensive everything becomes more expensive when oil goes up and quite frankly we've had one hell of an oil rally over the last a few weeks we're at uh almost 90 bucks a barrel now on Brent we did break 90 for a hot minute uh but we uh we have been basically straight up since about June 29th uh then you get to July 19th we kind of had like a little pause and then it was straight up from July 19th guess what else was straight down from July 19 well pretty much stocks they've had a little bit of a recovery mode because oil fell again now it went to New highs it's a lot of this has to do with people's expectations for inflation and anytime you start screwing with people's expectations for inflation the market almost algorithmically trades like this and it probably honestly is all algorithms like I really doubt people are waking up you know in the morning going well ISM Services a little hotter than expected time to sell like this is totally people who last night are like all right let's program the algorithms okay if uh if I SM uh employment and prices paid comes in high oh let's just go ahead and set it up uh sell risk that's all this is It's the suits and in honor of those to just demonstrate it I wear suit and I actually have a zoom meeting so obviously I'm but they don't need another anyway obviously the suits are doing whatever they can to take advantage of this volatility and make money that's what they do dude that's what Traders do that's what hedge funds and institutions do especially to Rob money off of retail that's okay because if you long-term Buy and Hold that's great if you're a Trader great and you use this data and you're like perfect give me more it doesn't really matter what you are how you want to make money that choice is yours so what data came in this morning and what the hell did it do to us while it was ISM data okay so we got Institute for supply side management and this is Services data service is data for August and the services index came in a little hot at 54.5 versus 52.5 fine that's relatively benign the problem was the price is paid level Rose a good chunk we went from 56 8 to 58.9 and that price is paid index does actually relate to the services component of CPI it's one of the things that economists use to make their projections for CPI which isn't great because we'd really like CPI especially services to start filling out a little bit Services though now uh despite this ISM the current estimates for CPI month over month on September 13th are 0.5 that's up from 0.2 last month and most of that is because of oil and gas and then core still expected to come in at 0.2 so we haven't seen it dis anchoring yet here of those expectations though the Market's kind of like Trade It Trade It Don't hold it trade it you know uh now it is interesting that this comes the day after you get Nick T our famous uh fed Watcher and leaker over here from The Wall Street Journal saying the New York feds inflation gauge that attempts to capture the underlying trend of inflation called multivariate core Trend Falls to less than 2.8 percent in July June was revised down as well to 2 8 from 2-9 this is the lowest reading since January of 2021 and a way to see this a little bit better is just zoom in on the blue line you can see that there is volatility in even the multivariate core but it's been rapidly falling today's ISM numbers did not move the five-year break even though the five-year Break Even is sitting at 2.26 a little harder after the labor read last week and the 5 your four five year Break Even basically five year Break Even how much inflation you'll expect over the next five five year forward is going forward the next five years after that one actually fell after this morning's data to 2.23 so the numbers coming all over the place like this is this is not a surprise what is also not a surprise is AMC dumping on shareholders we saw that happening from a mile away so that's not a surprise and that's why AMC is tanking and guess what I promise you and this should just serve as a warning every single time every single freaking time AMC goes up whether it's on Taylor Swift hopium or whatever I guarantee you they are going to dump stock well I shouldn't guarantee that because like I I'm not them I can't guarantee that and don't sue me bro I'm just trying to give you a heads up anyway fed terminal rate now sitting at 5.46 markets are pricing in a little bit of an increase for having one more raid hike now if we look at the terminal rate and monitor and we can we get a little bit of a an estimate of how things have changed over the last day we're still looking for that pause in September but the numbers on a hike in November did move up about eight percent from 38 chance to 46 honestly right back to a coin toss this is really not that big of a surprise but it is leading tech stocks to sell off risk stocks to sell off this is not a surprise markets are really ready for the FED to be done with hiking and until the FED is done with hiking I don't think it makes sense to actually for for most traders to buy the 10-year treasury maybe you buy two year or honestly if you're gonna buy the two you're just going to money markets but I think for most Traders it probably makes sense to wait to buy the 10-year treasury until you know the FED is at a ceiling because once the FED is like we're done hiking well now you basically have a license to buy that longer duration part of the car curve which is otherwise more subject to risk in the event the FED keeps going with its higher for longer stuff so as soon as the FED is like we're done treasury yields on the 10-year probably and probably not the two-year yet because you're too similar to the money market rate but the 10-year probably comes down but the FED doesn't really want the 10-year to come down yet because if the tenure comes down they loosen Financial conditions which they don't want to do so they're purposefully manipulating the yield curve to stay inverted the way it is and keep that 10 as high as possible honestly if it weren't for this feds talk it could be even higher if they just stay higher for longer but this this this talk about potentially raising even more keeps that 10-year yield higher because people are like okay maybe I'm not going to touch it just yet maybe I'll wait because remember if you're an institution like a Trader a hedge fund or a money manager or whatever you know people are gonna be like why are you buying this crap you know that you you have to answer your clients it's a little annoying but anyway look the bottom line out of all of this bottom line out of all of it congratulations we got some inflation volatility at least in some of the data that's what we would expect we would expect to have some of that in this sort of Market it's not going to be a straight down I don't think this fundamentally changes anything and
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