저자: Kevin · 외국인
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엔비디아 실적 발표를 앞두고 시장 기대치 대비 소폭 상회(언더프로미스 오버딜리버) 가능성을 강조. 현재 Peg 2.01 수준으로 밸류에이션은 합리적이며 EPS 성장률이 유지되면 주가 상승 여지가 있다고 봄. 블랙웰 과열 이슈는 엔비디아보다 델·슈퍼마이크로·버티브 등 파트너 문제로 판단하고, 슈퍼마이크로는 저평가로 봄. 실적 미스 시 조정과 경기침체 우려도 언급.
다듬은 글
let's get ready for NVIDIA earnings this is a big deal and it could move the entire stock market we could be at the beginning of S&P 500 7,000 or 4500 in other words things could be moving pretty quick after this one but let's talk about what Market expectations are and what could end up happening with the stock given that after AMD and arm both guided 80 and 60 basis point misses that's very small less than 1% of a miss and their stocks fell 8 to 10% Nvidia which almost seems like it's the prop holding up the entire stock market is a pretty big deal especially since Nvidia makes up 6% of the entire US Stock Market think about that for a moment one company makes up 6% if you have had 16 nvidias it would represent all of the stock market capitalization of the entire United States pretty crazy anyway what you want to look for here is very different than what you're going to see at something like a Walmart or a Target right these are companies that are trying to figure out how do we get more consumers spending on things that they have to spend money on you're really appealing to what is the lower to Middle land have to spend their money on target this morning is down 18% because they warned a flat sales uh a flat sales quarters so no growth uh inventory buildup and it's buildup that they built because of the port strikes that's actually something that in my opinion made the economy seem stronger than it really was in September because companies were pre-ordering expecting we could have a prolonged Port strike going into one of the most critical Hol shopping periods especially now when the economy is slowing that's what makes it so critical while as a result of that targets down 18% because they built up on inventory and they couldn't really spend it and the Port strike didn't really last that long so oopsy dupsies Walmart did well that's fine but we got to focus on Nvidia because the Nvidia doesn't focus on that lower income Nvidia focuses on the highest of high they are basic basically selling the white Club service to the rich billionaires of the world the Michael Sailors who when you go to their house have a menu and then you look and go hm what should I get and they look at you and say son get everything one of everything it's okay it's okay yes that's what Nvidia is do they are selling to the richest of the rich that is what gives them large massive peee pricing power they sell to the metas the Amazon the Teslas the xai the companies with massive cash flow to blow on the best Edge they can get in artificial intelligence and this is when we look at what estimates are today markets do think Nvidia is going to keep growing so Nvidia guided that their revenue would grow to about $28 billion this Q2 last ears were q1 it's a little confusing given that we're in November it's like oh we're about to get Q2 earnings this is confusing yes here's the easiest way to understand what expectations are for NVIDIA Nvidia guided for 24 billion of Revenue in the first quarter they guided that when they reported their fourth quarter earnings right okay they ended up beating that guidance by 8.3% and they were already expecting to grow so they guide a number that already shows good growth and then they beat it this is the under promise over deliver that Nvidia pulls off then right now they're guiding us a 7.1% q to expectation but markets are like nah nah nah n we know you're going to under promise overd deliver again we think you're going to beat with 15% quarter over quarter growth that's pretty remarkable remble especially consider this the next 4 years Nvidia is expected to grow EPS this is per Wall Street by only 25% per year on average which just to make math simple if we do 25 divided 4 you know there's some compounding in there but that's probably about 6% quarter on quarter growth sequential right quarter to the next quarter to the next quarter well right now markets are expecting Nvidia is going to be at 15% which is 2 and half times what people think their sort of terminal growth rate is going to be obviously if Nvidia misses here uh it'd be pretty bad the implied volatility is close to 8% so if you're at 147 and you take off 8% you honestly you only go down to like 135 this is unless obviously there's a big Miss and you have some kind of 20% decline you know 147 time8 you're still only at 117 right they were at like $100 in August during the Japanese crisis you know and the recession could still come it just seems like you know thanks support strikes or otherwise it keeps getting delayed who knows maybe it'll get delayed forever in recessionary environments almost all stocks sell off so you know everything we're talking about here is absent recession now what's fascinating is EPS growth of 25% per year pretty good but it actually makes their valuation pretty reasonable consider this nvidia's valuation sits at about a two Peg at this level 2.01 Peg that's a 51.4 PE ratio divided by 25.5 7% expected growth of eps over the next four years gives you a tweg if you think growth is going to falter you probably don't want to invest in this because of the expectation that Nvidia is always going to beat and raise guidance if you think they can maintain these expectations and just keep it going then Nvidia could have a reasonable valuation at a 2.67 Peg today which would actually put the stock at $196 up about 34 33% from where it is now but it all comes down to growth on this one and there are going to be a lot of questions about Kevin what about Blackwell we had a Blackwell delay that got fixed but now we have concerns and rumors over blackw chips overheating and this is true there are overheating issues but this is not so much an Nvidia issue think of Nvidia as the developer the designer of like a housing track the neighborhood you know they got the Monopoly mustache and they're like oh yes design the house like this oh yes build it like this uh and then Dell and super micro come in all right we'll get to swinging the hammer you know they're like the contractors they're going to do the work you know vertiv is going to put in the plumbing for you the water cooling Plumbing D and super micro they put in the foundies and the framing and they'll do the grunt work Nvidia is collecting the big fat margin these other guys are collecting very very little margin but if there's an overheating issue it's really the problem of Dell super micro invertive not so much Nvidia so I think Nvidia will beat and raise and then what they'll do is they'll shout out super micro especially but probably also vert and they say hey these guys already have Solutions cooking for any kind of heating issues and cooling issues this is solvable in fact it just shows how powerful and great Blackwell is this is an AI Revolution a new Industrial Revolution and we have the best machine that exists and they are revising their infrastructure and they're going to help us crush it it's not us it's them but don't worry they're going to fix it and then you might actually see a big pump on especially super micro because I I kind of think it's pretty undervalued right now and I think the accounting issue is overblown I could be wrong obviously so for me I look at Super Micro as a potential huge beneficiary here but I also look at uh my 2 by two foundation for NVIDIA and I say reasonable valuation as long as growth doesn't disappoint you know frankly with the tweg you know if even if I write down their growth uh you know probably let's see 2.67 uh 2 / 2.67 even if I write down their growth by 25% so I assume that their growth is only going to be about 19% in EPS per year going forward it's still a reasonable valuation where it is today is it undervalued in that case no it's fairly valued so I don't see nvidia's valuation as excessive I didn't see I actually saw it as a good deal uh when it was in sort of the lower 100s and I said they've got a good valuation right now you know it's only like a 1.3 1.5 pay I didn't personally buy it because I'm still nervous about a recession but you know I can still provide you information and have my own biases about uh recession I'm very concerned about recession I don't know if that's I've made that clear but anyway their pricing power is unquestionable so on the 2 by two Foundation PP is great uh sentiment probably somewhat down because of the Blackwell overheating concerns which are probably overblown they're just going to brush those off the balance sheet is extremely robust at this company valuation is quite frankly reasonable as long as the AI spend and the revolution keeps going and really I think I mean I don't know one day they're going to miss and people are going to freak out but at least right now I I don't know if that's this quarter um so we'll see uh this is the last um uh q1 earnings press release that we have where they talk about AI factories how they fix their Blackwell delay uh how they've increased some of their marketing for Q2 which I think is interesting uh expectations I just gave you sort of the revised numbers they're really expecting a big beat here 30 uh 30 billion doll basically on top of the 28 that they're guiding uh and so uh you know look this this is a company that frankly it just it has a reasonable valuation uh at some point GPT movements you know like uh what should I say um oh the historic VA by the way right now it's pretty low it's like as low it was before the GPT movement so you could see a big move in volatility here even though the implied volatility is a little higher than average uh but um what's remarkable really is that at some point llms will become a commodity but the question is will that be offset by training artificial intelligence robots or uh you know Drive platforms as more companies try to get into creating their own sort of wh labeled uh full self-driving platforms maybe even using the Nvidia Drive platform I'm a big fan of or and Thor you know the Nvidia Drive platform and I think that does eat into the mode of Tesla although that's not sort of a ubiquitous and understood concept right now most people say oh well Tesla has all the data they can get the data as well there's plenty of demand to compete with Tesla and willingness by companies to do that so I'm very curious to see what happens here I don't suspect that Jensen is going to give us any bad news uh if the growth misses they'll tank but again I think they they will continue to forecast strong growth especially for this new Blackwell chip uh and they'll prop up their their uh friends so that's my expectation I think you could get this stock to almost $200 with a you know before Christmas if they miss though the entire pedestal of the market could collapse and if you start a market correction that lasts 6 to 12 weeks I think you guarantee a recession so in other words uh no pressure but Nvidia you're the only thing preventing us from a recession right now so good luck everybody make sure to get the meet Kevin Alpha report by the way I'm about to send the next one go to meetkevin.com slala sign up and uh get that free Alpha report every day before the Market opens up thanks so much see you soon nd always wait to get your take
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