저자: Kevin · 외국인
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비트코인은 99만 달러 매물대 소화 후 10만~10.2만 달러 돌파 가능성이 있으나 10만 달러 부근 심리적 매도 출회 우려. 슈퍼마이크로는 회계 이슈로 81% 하락했으나 PEG 1 미만, PER 8배, 순현금·재고 충분해 저평가라 주장하며 2027년 목표가 약 83.5달러 제시. 경기침체 대비 헤지로 장기채(TLT/TMF)와 현금, 모기지 관련주, 로보틱스를 제시. 테슬라는 에너지·자동차 사업가치 190~240달러 수준으로 보며 현재 주가 340달러는 로보틱스 기대 반영이라 고평가라고 인정하나 장기 보유 및 하락 시 매수 방침.
다듬은 글
Bitcoin Tesla super micro we've got to talk about all three of those let's keep Bitcoin simple the order book at 990,000 was just cleared which means you don't have that many sells left it's one of the reasons why not only have we been holding 990,000 even through the geopolitical turmoil that we saw this morning you notice during pre-market Bitcoin held pretty stable but once you clear the 90k psychological threshold of people selling before 100 because they are actually skeptical that it's going to get to 100 it's going to get to 100 next stops about 102 now that might be bullish for now but what I want to talk about in this video is not the long-term trajectory of what happens with blockchain technology or crypto Bitcoin whatever but rather why I just purchased super mine and Tesla both of these require an explanation in the meantime it's worth noting that uh bitcoin's probably going to struggle once it gets to 100K because a lot of people are going to take tendies around that three-digit figure psychological reasons bragging rights if it goes down you be able to say we sold at three digits human psychology now what's worth remembering is that doesn't mean we won't further exceed 102 that's all going to come down to the economy and macro Which is less about what this video is about though super micro and Tesla are going to have some economic issues related to recession as well which I'm going to talk about hedging towards the end of the video which will apply to bitcoin as well so if you're looking for a Bitcoin hedge just because it is a risk asset and it's not going to do very well in a recession if there's a recession I hope there's no recession knock on W but let's talk super micro I guess if there's one more thing to say micro strategy will moon when even more when Bitcoin hits 102 but again you get to recession their Break Even probably somewhere in the low 40s with how much they keep buying you could potentially have some debt issues so I'd be a little more careful with how much debt micro is issuing uh micro strategy that is but hey Michael sailor's obviously done a great job so let's talk about super micro first a lot of people look at this play and they say Kevin why would you buy Super Micro yesterday which just happened to be the day before they chose a new auditor well mostly because of the fundamentals and what securities analysis tells us see what's interesting is if you read the book Securities analysis they specifically refer to how companies can become cigar butt stocks which would be stocks that sell below their intrinsic value because of accounting related issues see accounting is really difficult it's tedious but not only is it tedious it's difficult because you have to know how one action affects another dual entry accounting and getting good bookkeepers and accountants isn't the easiest thing so I'm not trying to put a pass on super micro but I have a feeling that in 5 years from now nobody's going to remember this accounting issue and if you've been listening to what I've been saying either on my morning live streams which are free to attend the course member live streams which you have to be a course member for or just even in the alpha report which is also free you can go to meetkevin.com Alfa and sign up for that I've been saying that I think the super micro issue is overblown and that even if you account for $200 million of fines penalties lawsuits fraud allegations whatever this company's in a great spot just listen to some of these numbers and you'll see why I think there such an opportunity of course this video is not personalized advice and with that out of the way let's get into it this company's down 81% from Peak now sometimes when a company is down so much from Peak it's because they suck the problem with this company is that they're sucking because of negative momentum enhanced by filing their financials late yes that's a problem it is a very bad problem and it's going to take cleanup it's going to take work and they probably going to be fines and penalties but it'll get cleaned up not only do I think it'll get cleaned up but I think now the microscope is literally on super micro to where everything has to be perfect going forward so I kind of feel like you're digging them out of a hole I see it as sort of like buying real estate below market value you're buying the crappiest home possible in a great neighborhood and everybody else walks through and they're like this has so many problems right but the people who come in to fix those problems knowing that now we've been priced to absurdity and you'll see that valuation of absurdity in just a moment they're the ones who get rewarded by doing the work or taking the risk and you're going to see the fundamentals in just a moment but I want you to think about that I actually posted a house hack renovation video yesterday you're welcome to see that great neighborhood you know next to a guy with Tesla super you know wall Chargers and everything but what's remarkable is if you look at this you know this is just an in progress one but just take a look you know here's a you know this is what it was look how nasty this is I mean it's just a nasty nasty property uh and you turn that into kind of where where it is now and it's still in renovation mind you but I'm just saying to me wedge deals exist in stocks as well they're just we call them cigar butts kind of like the you know Charlie Munger Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett days so I'm a nut for cheap stuff when everybody else is panicking in fact I'm kind of known for doing the opposite of what the markets are doing uh and that doesn't always do well for you see In fairness I got bullish on bonds way too early like you know July August not a great time to get bullish on Long bonds because unfortunately they've kind of gone down quite a bit they're having a green day today but let's be real you're just getting a little bit back I'll talk about why I'm even more bullish on those now in just a moment but let's finish up on super micro uh I like companies that are in trash sentiment and I also like uh uh any kind of investment that has the worst sentiment possible because I have what I call a 2 by two formula when I invest in things for companies the 2 by two formula is very simple it's are the fundamentals good in other words is it going to go bankrupt does it have pricing power in its space does it have negative sentiment I want to buy when the sentiment is negative and is the PEG ratio relatively low now all of these have their own fluidity they're each like a little rubber band but think about this for a moment for super micro it's selling for less than a one peg it's selling down 81% from Peak and it's selling for eight times earnings you have a company that basically builds out the infrastructure for the Nvidia BL Blackwell chips they do super uh you know water cooling basically as well they've got water cooling Stacks uh so does Dell you know competitors have them as well but this will be especially important with some of these higher performance chips uh which gives them some form of pricing power building server racks isn't the highest margin industry you know it's a 5 to 10% margin business to the bottom line best case scenario you know whereas Apple's like a 25 or Microsoft's like a 35 Nvidia is like you know also like a 35 so there are definitely higher Market margin businesses but from a server rack point of view uh these are what your margins are and within the industry they're pretty competitive people like using super microcomputer they're selling for eight times earnings that is extremely low for an AI adjacent well it's actually it's more than AI adjacent it is like I mean you can install AI servers without server racks I still think there is likely to be a commoditization of L l m and that there's some form of artificial intelligence bubble but we've already kind of seen some of that bursting or at least the trajectory of some of the valuations of these companies really chillaxing I mean look for example at an arm you know that's this is your risk architecture and you've peaked out you've got a head and shoulders uh pattern here like you know 5-year-old can see this it's not good you might be going back to 46 bucks if this head and shoulders plays out you look it's something like an AMD uh you're on a downtrend and you've been on a downtrend frankly since March one of the ones that's I mean even meta look at meta you're down 10% from Peak which look it's done great it's on a fantastic trajectory and we're about to bounce off this trend line here as well as this upper FIB uh but some of the Euphoria has really left the AI space and I think that is in part creating an opportunity for super micro this company has enough cash and accounts receivable to pay off all of their current liabilities long-term liabilities including convertible bonds uh and still have $4 billion worth of free and clear inventory as of March 31st right obviously all of this could have an asterisk on it and we're going to talk Tesla in just a moment because some people just aren't going to believe the fundamentals uh and and the financials are provided because well they're going through accounting problems I'm including in this debt payoff deferred revenues as debt of just over $200 million and I'm calling that my slush fund for oops we screwed up we're going to get fined and we're going to get sued I'm putting $200 million in there so I'm giving myself a little bit of that margin of safety and I still get $4 billion of inventory on top of that this uh is trading for about 15 billion dollar as a company and what's worth noting is in if you annualize out your revenues for q1 you multiply that by four you're sitting about $19.6 billion of revenues it might not always stay that high I'm sure it'll level off as AI becomes more ubiquitous but I think there's a squeeze to be had on this play especially as the shorts get out now if you look at a PEG ratio which is a price to earnings growth ratio I like to be under 1.67 for any kind of Hardware or manufacturing play I would put them at about a67 and if I put him at 167 on a PEG ratio and I take a Ford earnings projection of about $5 2027 then what I'll do is I'll take five I'll multiply it by 1.67 and I'm going to give him a 10% growth rate which is honestly nominal on EPS I think very achievable uh that puts me at a price Target in 2027 of 83.5 okay divided by you know where super micro is trading now at $28 it's about a 3X so that is what I see as a present day cigar butt play is their downside risk could they get delisted you know could they truly be the biggest frauds ever sure and that gives it some downside risk and then you can buy the dip on it if you believe they're going to be able to turn around but I don't think they're going to disappear especially at this valuation I think I've got a lot of cushion here so that's a little bit on super micro computer the numbers are great so think about that for a moment at least financially with an with a $200 million as risk uh which I've already accounted for as margin of safety I think you're good that's part one of your 2 by two I think of like a rust 2 by two Foundation right part one you're good uh pricing power relative within the industry water cooling great as far as uh valuation trading for less than a one peg uh less than frankly they're selling for less than one times annual sales that's amazing uh and uh then of course sentiment I want it to be in the toilet it could not be more in the toilet perfect time to buy 2 by two check now before I talk about Tesla I just want to talk about Hedges because this leads into Tesla I believe that there are uh three primary Hedges that we're going to have for this deflationary recession whenever it comes I don't know when it's going to come uh I I really have no idea but there are three primary Hedges uh the first hedge you should know by now is bonds and cash I think 20 and 30e bonds are going to perform exceptionally well as we go into a deflationary cycle and uh opt I have options on the 20 year for example via TLT I also have exposure to TMF so I'm biased but you have to don't don't say like I always say to folks don't ask why somebody is saying oh yeah I'm bullish bonds oh they must be bullish bonds because they hold bonds you should ask yourself why did they go bullish Bonds in the first place well quick tldr I think we are going to walk into an unemployment recession as soon as potentially next year uh probably q1 I could be wrong I hope I'm wrong because it's going to cause a tremendous amount of human suffering I don't think this is a real estate related bubble this would be more of a valuation related bubble uh and just the lack of liquidity and then layoffs and then you know declining sales for a few years I think we are very clearly in a slowing economic cycle and as a result I think there will be a lot of stimulus to try to promote demand uh you're going to try to promote the demand side again not the supply side the supply side is built out that's what the FED affects anyways the demand side so we'll get back to the money printer except the money printer is not going to create a lot of inflation this time because we're not going to be sending stimulus checks there's no way Republicans are going to fall for that again in instead we'll be printing e you know easing money through the Federal Reserve which really benefits asset holders like frankly house Haack who has free and clear real estate which I don't think there's a real estate bubble so that's why we're buying real estate uh free and clear real estate that I could then piggy bank open with some cheaper debt and go buy even more real estate so we're really excited about that also just sort of like side note this morning in the market open live stream I was I was serious when when I said I may it may have been the course member live stream but I was talking about how my dream for house Haack is to make it the the Burkshire haway of the future that doesn't mean that I'm always going to be right in the short term uh or even in the long term but it means that I'm going to follow my values which is buying what I think is cheap and follows my 2 by two formula and I'm going to do that same thing in real estate uh and in the long term the way I sort of see house hack developing is I think it's going to expand into not just buying real estate St below market value kind of like you in my opinion you can buy super uh micr computer at sort of cigar butt valuation wedge valuations but uh Adu developments uh larger developments institutional uh funding so you know mini fund strategy uh which which we'll focus on in the longer term but really you know we also want to hold a lot of our real estate because really I I see house Haack as a tax play think about the tax play of a corporation see corporations so you have lower taxes if that Corporation than as earnings that can be offset by real estate depreciation you pay even low Less in taxes and then let's say in the future 20% of this company uh is it sort of treasuries or its cash or whatever are invested into various different stocks through an ETF that that company controls it could basically LGH hold stocks rebalance and never pay taxes because just like in real estate you can exchange and not pay taxes you could do it with stocks One stock runs you can exchange to another stock there's so many so many incredible things we can do uh with that company so so that that is a big investment for me as well and I just want more shares of the company like putting more money in it's because we have a fund raise going right now that's at hous hack.com you could read the PPM there but we're basically giving you uh the right to buy shares and a 5% yield which is pretty sick and that's because we expect to be cash flow positive all of 2025 probably even Q4 uh we'll see if we can pull it off for Q4 and uh we're just growing so it's really really exciting uh that's house act.com but anyway so TLT bonds cash fantastic cool thing is if alack has its own ETF it could even move between bonds and cash taxfree that's all in the future though for um another hedge I think mortgage companies are a hedge not as good as bonds though it's mostly because of Mortgage Debt in certain areas I think will be very desirable especially for companies that service since you'll also get uh exposure to those refinances as rakes come down and then the biggest hedge that I haven't talked about much I've talked about in one prior video for a recession is actually robotics ah finally we get towards Tesla yes exactly now Tesla's valuation has problems and we're going to talk about that but robotics is going to be the hedge of the next recession again I don't know if that recession is in 27 28 or when it is but robotics without a doubt are going to be the way of the future and you know how we went from like no self-driving in cars to like wow really good self-driving in cars the first 80% of neural Nets is pretty easy to train I I'm not trying to minimize it but you make the most progress with the least amount of cost so I think you're going to get robots that are doing things decently not great but decently very rapidly that final 20% much like trying to get a car from FSD 12 to full self-driving you know Ro Robo taxi basically that will take much longer that could take you know it could be 3 years to functional Optimus and then another 10 years to perfect Optimus that's fine but as we go into a deflationary recession companies will unfortunately be forced to lower their costs by any means necessary robotics create a very interesting opportunity see robotics allow you to invest in a capital Improvement this is very important that's why I'm talking taxes in this as well by investing in a capital Improvement you're not actually expensing it to the bottom line year one you're capitalizing it let me basically say this in English if you have $100 of earnings and you spend $25 on a robot I'm simplifying the numbers obviously you might only expense $5 of that robot so your earnings actually look higher because you're going to write that robot off over many years as a capital Improvement it's an asset you're moving cash from one asset to another type of asset property plant property and Equipment look at a cash flow statement free cash flow understand free cash flow understand how accounting Works robotics will be add backends for adjusted EPS in my opinion because what do you do in adjusted EPS you add back in depreciation so all of a sudden you're going to have companies like Amazon blowing money on robotics cutting human labor and they're actually growing their adjusted EPS by shifting from humans which are an EPS cost to robots which are not at least you know depending on the depreciation schedule most of it isn't that's how companies are going to grow out of this next recession in my opinion more investment into robotics so I'm working on a deal right now where I want to invest more in robotics it's it's a private deal uh and uh I I don't know we're going through due diligence and underwriting now uh and it's possible I'll be able to bring that uh to to you know other people um so stay tuned make sure you subscribe to the channel I will mention it in the alpha report so if you don't want to like watch every video or whatever just go to meetkevin.com Alfa uh and let me know if you be interested in that basically it'd be something like um you know a venture capital kind of structure where we invest in various different robotics plays uh or you know Innovative Technologies or whatever not not real estate in that uh I cannot fund raise I can't do a general solicitation for one company so it' be separated for various different companies but I'm just saying I'm going through due diligence on one company now if this is something you're interested in you want you want to kind of know more about uh like this or or at least stay informed on what's going on you can also email us uh at staff meetkevin.com and we'll let you know when we have more details on this but Tesla is a robotics play it's just very expensive as a robotics play which is unfortunate but I'm going to show you how it functionally could work it's a trillion dollar company I want to invest in robotics companies that are like you know hundreds of millions to you know a few billion dollars because I think they have no I'm not making guarantees or projections but I think they have 10x 20x 50x 100x potentials very risky obviously I don't think Tesla has 100x potential potentially ever uh there just be too much competition and in the future right uh now does Tesla have a 2X signature I remember when I said that I thought Tesla was going to double before Nvidia doubled and and so far that's turning out to be true uh that said I have come to buy Tesla um with with with a smaller allocation I want Tesla to be a larger allocation because I actually think it'll sort of be like the apple of the future where you know people like Kathy Wood are like cool you all have innovated so much now you're a cash play like that's what I think Tesla is at some point going to turn into you know when it's like let's say A5 trillion doll company or whatever I don't know what time frame that's going to be in but basically I never unless something fundamentally and materially changes I'm never going to sell Tesla again uh my exposure to Tesla and instead uh what I'm kind of expecting is while I think there's still a good run ahead of it I do expect meaningful deterioration in a recession and so I want to use profits that come from the Hedge plays the mortgage company plays the um Bond plays treasury bonds 2030s use those profits and throw them into buying the dip on companies like Tesla now you could get the energy exposure pretty inexpensively through end phase today it's terrible sentiment excellent fundamentals excellent fundamentals on the on the balance sheet no bankruptcy risk great cash flow and it would be very stupid to get rid of the uh manufacturing tax credits for solar because you would just send all the jobs back to Ukraine uh actually sorry it's Romania sorry uh they've got pricing power within their industry although they they're competitive with Tesla so it's not the best but they do and their valuations like you know one peg or lower Tesla though we need to understand Tesla right now uh Tesla prices out with its energy business and its um that's the batteries mostly uh and its vehicle business at probably about a 190 to 240 price that's that's more fair now that is up from where we were uh you know a few months ago where where that was closer to like 140 to 170 specifically because the trajectory of energy is exploded and I think it will continue to do so larger Mega packs uh I also believe that a lot of the the the sort of limitation on incentives for us manufacturing will stay because otherwise you're basically raising taxes is on American manufacturers and that's very unpopular now do I think the EV tax credit is going to go away yeah sure fine that's going to be bad in the short term but it's actually going to be great for Q4 like I have never seen this many people go to metkevin.com Tesla and buy a Tesla I personally think you can get better deals on a used Tesla right now but boy boy let me tell you man that freaking cyber truck is sick dude I I go out there every day and I'm like man this is freaking cool why didn't I have this longer it's nice it's I feel like like a little little like little girl it's like like my little babies I just posted a little video reel of all five of the babies on X and Instagram if you want to see it uh I'm meet Kevin on Instagram and real meetkevin on X uh so I'll try to post some more videos too uh and you can also see the cybertruck on the plane um but um okay so so if Tesla price is out between 190 to 240 now that does mean we can we can revisit these levels especially in a recession I mean everything's going to go down in a recession except for bonds I think bonds will actually do quite well in a recession uh but the difference that you're paying today for Tesla at $340 that $100 that you're paying so what is that 100 divided 342 29% time uh 11,00 I'm paying about oh God I'm paying about $321 million for uh love robotics exposure right now which is very high now they probably have the greatest opportunity for growth and mass manufacturing most robotics plays that I see the biggest risk they have is that they they do not mass manufacturer Google's going to mark my words Google will get into making their own robotics Facebook uh Amazon all of them will probably get into their own robotics to compete with Tesla Netflix is going to start getting into robotics to fix their streaming issues okay that's just a JB I'm joking there but for sure uh Google's you know what like probably even Apple they'll just be the last and apple have theirs built in foxcon but you know China out well we'll see how that goes with with uh Trump but then again last time Apple got some exemptions from from Trump tariffs because you know and then they they they gave him a nice new iMac or some kind of apple you can Google that story anyway so it is a rich valuation but Tesla let's be real they have the best pricing power of any vehicle company that exists they have the biggest PP that exists we all know that uh which is great uh we know they're not going bankrupt which is also great but the other two suck sentiment is way too euphoric uh and you probably just had a short squeeze which contributes to the Euphoria and the valuation is high right now so why did I buy any of it well frankly it also serves as an upside hedge so one way you could do this is you establish a smaller position than you want I want Tesla to be a 20ish maybe 25% exposure so I plant the seed at let's say four or 5% If this just goes Looney uh because you know the market can do crazy things maybe it'll grow to 10 15 20% as an allocation without me doing anything perfect it's like planting seed I don't think that's going to happen so I'm prepared first of all to never sell those shares a because that's stupid don't bet against Tesla I can admit mistakes number two buy the crap out of the dips and the way that I'm hedging with bonds uh I think will give me more Capital to buy those dips so uh I'm also working on on a buildout of sort of balancing what I call this Trump meet Kevin barbell you know stocks that I think will do not stocks that have already fully priced in this expectation but stocks that I think will do well in 2025 but also with a mix of Kevin's opinion of what's going to happen in 2025 so you get the the Trump Kevin barbell you know we're gonna see which P okay no we're not going to go that thank you so much for watching make sure you sign up at the alpha report all the updates related to me even I'll I'll put little notes about the robotics or VC or whatever all uh in this Alpha report I'll just put them towards the bottom or I'll figure it out okay I just want to provide value to that Alpha report every day I'm I'm I'm working on adding even more so if you want to get that for free go to me kevin.com Alfa sign up for free you get a text email it's an easy way to stay in touch to where you don't feel like you have to watch every single minute of every video obviously I would love if you did that I specifically would love if you went and watched my pilot video and I don't know let me know what you think about it anyway thank you so much for being here cheers it's coffee still sober
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