저자: Justin · 외국인
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결론: 이 영상은 Li Lu와 Mohnish Pabrai의 2021년 2분기 포트폴리오 변화를 분석하며, 두 투자자 모두 강한 해자와 장기 성장성을 가진 기업을 선호한다는 공통점을 짚는다. 두 투자자의 투자 철학: Li Lu는 경쟁자를 막아내는 지속적 경쟁우위를 가진 기업을 찾아 장기 보유하는 것이 핵심이라고 말한다. Pabrai는 성장 가능성이 있는 기업을 합리적 가격에 사서 오래 보유하라고 하며, 시가총액이 매출의 20배 이상인 스노우플레이크 같은 고평가 성장주에는 회의적이다. Li Lu 포트폴리오(미국 상장 기준, 6종목): 마이크론이 약 50%로 최대 비중이고, 뱅크오브아메리카 25%, 구글 10%, 페이스북 9%, 애플 5%, 기타 2% 수준이다. 2분기에는 매매가 없었고, 1분기에 페이스북 일부를 줄인 뒤 2분기에 전량 매도했다. Li Lu 관련 의문점: 찰리 멍거가 알리바바를 매수한 배경과 연결해 볼 때 Li Lu가 알리바바를 사지 않은 점이 놀랍다고 언급한다. 다만 Li Lu는 작년 2분기에 알리바바를 이미 매도한 상태다. 경쟁사인 핀둬둬는 소액 보유 중이라고 한다. Pabrai 포트폴리오: 마이크론이 약 50%, 알리바바 약 31%, 헤리티지 약 21% 수준이다. 2분기에 알리바바를 약 8만 9천 주 추가 매수했고, 마이크론 일부를 매도해 재원을 마련한 것으로 보인다. Pabrai 관련 의문점: 텐센트에 대한 높은 관심을 인터뷰에서 밝혔으나 포트폴리오에는 직접 또는 간접(아스파이어 등) 보유가 보이지 않아 놀랍다는 평가다. 출연자 전망: 두 투자자 모두 마이크론과 알리바바 등 중국 및 반도체 관련 비중이 높은 구조이며, 영상은 투자 판단을 직접 제시하기보다 포트폴리오 변화의 해석에 초점을 둔다. 과거 실적 설명 외에 특정 종목의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
hey everybody thanks for joining me today my name is justin today i want to talk about monish prabrai and lee liu these are two investors i closely follow uh they have a lot of respect for and in this video i want to take a look at their current portfolio they just came out here in the last week and what their current positions are so i want to discuss what those current positions are the changes that were made in quarter two and any surprises because i think there were surprises on both end at least surprised me uh that i saw or didn't see in both of their portfolios and we're also going to kind of talk about how both of their strategies have changed over the years and i actually think they are have similar strategies right now versus what they had gone through before so let's just jump right into this all right so uh let's first look at lilu uh and kind of where his mind is as far as investing goes what his strategy is before we take a look at his portfolio and this is an article from guru focus and this is what lilu had to say he says truly good businesses are those that can fend off competitors the ones that can have enduring competitive advantage and hopefully also have a long runway for continuous growth those are the business those are the businesses we are looking for they come really in all different industries and all different shapes and forms but they are really really rare if you're really lucky enough to find one of these long-term compounders all you need to do is hold them for the longest amount of time so interesting so he's looking for companies that have really strong moats competitive advantages that he can buy and then hold for a long time now monash per bry this is an article from yahoo finance and this is kind of what he had to say so i'm going to go through the entire thing i'm just going to take out a couple snippets out of here but he says very few businesses have the qualities that can help them grow year after year so it makes sense to hold on to the ones that do capitalism is destructive and very brutal it can keep challenging to keep up with businesses and to figure out what is around the corner adapting this mindset this mind says shift changes the nature of business businesses one should and interested in owning you want to add they need to have strong moats long runways and great management all right and then he kind of goes on and talks about snowflake how it really doesn't make a whole lot of sense to invest in just because what you're buying right now they'd have to grow tremendously on the future just doesn't make any sense and he says for companies like snowflake which are trading 20 times revenue or more it would take vast amount of growth to produce high returns in the years ahead that's if these valuations made sense at 20 times revenue it would take 20 years for the company to earn investors money back and that's assuming no research and development no cost of sales no cost at all that's not to say these businesses won't grow or that they're not high quality they may earn high returns on capital achieve high growth rates in the future but that's not the point the point in price opinion is that the market is now factoring in such unrealistic growth prospects it has become virtually impossible for these businesses to grow into their valuations thus the definitions of what qualities or qualifies as value and growth investing have changed with the overvalue stock still qualifying as neither so what i get from this and what this is similar i think to lilu is that militia bride is looking for companies that have a competitive advantage have growth they can you can buy into and that they can grow for a long time but also be able to buy at a good reasonable valuation whether it's fairly valued or undervalued and just let it run so for me personally this is something i'm trying to get to a lot of companies in my portfolio or companies i would consider value companies or value investing where you know i may only own them for three years uh because they've gone through an event kind of somewhere what phil town does and so they're i'm trying to shift my mindset like lilu and miller bride by companies that have a long runway like alibaba dropbox for example sprouts things like that all right so let's go take a look at portfolio right now and this is right off data roma this is a free website that you can go to look at super investors see their portfolio see the activity done here's his current portfolio he only owns six stocks so i love following income or companies but uh people that have you know a concentrated portfolio less than 10 stocks they have very high conviction on and uh that they believe they're going to do very very well because i do believe if you have high conviction stocks the chances that you're going to hang on to those stocks is very very high and so micron is his biggest position almost 50 percent portfolio bank of america 25 percent google 10 percent facebook nine percent apple five percent been do a a two percent now uh these are based off the american stock exchanges so uh he may have other investments around the world that are not part of this is just basically his kind of american portfolio uh that we can see we'll see the same thing from watch for buy here in a second uh but if we take a look activity in this last quarter this was a bit surprising so he didn't have anything per quarter two at all that that went on so uh he had facebook and quarter one they sold some off of he reduced his position uh entirely sold out of that but nothing in quarter two um and so the surprising thing to me is uh you know with you know he has a close relationship to to charlie munger as far as we understand that charlie munger has had multiple conversations with lee liu and lee liu is considered like the warren buffett of china uh just has an incredible business my internal investment mind charlie munger has a lot of respect for lee liu and lee liu has been high on alibaba and that was kind of the reason why charlie munger among other things may have bought into alibaba so seeing lilu not buying into alibaba was a bit surprising for me now he does own pindu a dua pdd which i also own a small position of uh this is a direct competitor of alibaba and chinese e-commerce so you kind of have jd.com pindu a dua and alibaba is the big giants in china for e-commerce penduludu has only been around since 2015 and they're growing really fast i mean i i think they're going to overtake jd.com here in the next three to five years now they have a very very different business model than jd.com jd.com is probably the closest to amazon that china has they have 1800 distributors across the entire country whether uh jd.com owns it or their third party owns those distributors uh but they're all over the place they're very small margins pandua dua is kind of described as kind of a costco slash slash disneyland experience where you go on and they really promote uh group buying so they're trying to get groups together buying lost up same time to save money and get those you know savings passed on to the custard themselves uh the unique thing about pindu a dua is their business model so when you go on there you can actually play games there's a social aspect to it and also they get all the money up front so their free cash flow is tremendous and they have to pay their vendors until later on so they have huge positive free cash flows even though they haven't had earnings but those they're getting closer and closer to profitability it should happen by by next year my personal opinion uh but i was a bit surprised seeing alibaba now on there but again he has pandua dua so maybe that's why or maybe he's waiting for baba to drop below that now i will also say that he did at one time own alibaba but he sold out i think it was last year if we take a look yeah so he sold out in quarter two of last year so you know you know maybe he's done with alibaba i don't know uh but that's kind of where things stand with him now let's go take a look at monish purai and see where he is at all right down here there we go albright investments and he has a very concentrated portfolio as all again these are just on american stock exchange so he does have some other companies that he owns outside including in japan i think turkey as well india uh but he's got three here in the merrick sock sheen so he's got micron as well which is almost half ironically virtually the same percentage for a portfolio is lilu basically about 50 percent heritage 31 and alibaba 21 now as far as activity in the second quarter he increased his alibaba position so he added 89 000 shares of alibaba so i'm not surprised that he added alibaba when surprisingly he continues to add alibaba now he has sold micron to take on alibaba what does surprise me though is that melissa bry has talked about in recent interviews on sumzero and some of the business schools as well that he is very high on 10 cent uh 10 cent is a huge conglomerate out in china they kind of remind me a little bit of of berkshire where they own over 700 parts of 700 companies around the world they have a big global footprint because of that they're also uh you know and music and and a lot of wechat and other things that are going on in china and so i expected him to have some kind of position in 10 cent whether directly in tencent or in asperger's or process and we're not seeing that so um surprising that that that really did surprise me uh overall maybe we'll see that in the future i i don't know um but that was surprising to me overall um so that's kind of where their their portfolios are right now i plan to cover other gurus as well as far as like michael brewery bill ackman and some of those others so these are you know content you guys like and create subscribe to my channel they got some value at us please smash that thumbs up button health out the channel a lot let me hear from you guys in the comments section what do you think about these uh changes in their portfolios or surprised that you can see alibaba and lee lu's portfolio are you surprised you didn't see 10 cent and portfolio love to hear from you guys thank you so much for watching i'll catch you guys on the other side take care and god bless
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