저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준이 금리를 동결했고, 금리 인하 시점을 3월보다 5월로 보는 시각을 제시. 연준 성명에서 '은행 시스템 건전' 문구가 삭제된 점과 뉴욕커뮤니티은행 급락(37%)을 근거로 은행 위기 우려를 강조. 시장이 3월 인하 기대를 되돌릴 것으로 예상.
다듬은 글
I'm not sure whether to be excited or shocked and really concerned after this fed meeting no not because of the economy but because of what the FED did not say now we'll talk about what they did not say in just a moment which is absolutely ridiculous but more importantly right now we'll focus on what happened today okay so let's go through it just like we've got it at ec.com it's all broken out and I will of course give you some added context fed rates stay unchanged really weird two things they did here though they removed that the banking system is sound and resilient they removed that they removed comments about tighter Financial conditions because Financial conditions have loosened and they removed commentary about the potential for additional monetary policy firming they removed that and changed that with or turned that into Inc considering any adjustments to the target range for the FED funds rate the committee will continue to assess incoming data okay fantastic so what's interesting here is jome Powell said a few things that were quite bullish at the beginning of the meeting beginning of the meeting starts off bullish we're well into restrictive territory we've been below trend on job gains in the uh prior few months compared to the months before that that was interesting to me because we've obviously talked about the idea of loosening labor markets and the potential that there's more of a balance now towards making sure we're not causing unnecessary employment jome Powell he's almost like it's almost like he wanted to cut already and and so he's sending these little signals but he's not allowed to because they're trying to use the March meeting as their signaling tool think about this for a moment okay we'll draw this out really quick but this is what I think they're doing they're saying here you go we're going to go into the January meeting and we're going to punt in January then we're going to go into the March meeting and what we're going to do is we're going to give an updated summary of projections so we're gonna punt January which was expected we're going to punt March but we're going to give the market maybe a dovish summary of economic projections right so you take the two CPI and the two job reports you take those and if you need to cut you can but you probably just give a doish sep summary of economic projections then he answered the question very clearly hey if interest rates stay the way they are or rather inflation stays the way it has been on the 6th month which is 1.9% then policy would be in a different place today absolutely that is a quote of his so if we stay on the trend we're on now rates are way lower okay the question is will we stay on the six-month path and in order for them to feel comfortable of that we are going to punt January give a summary of economic projections for March and then may one is probably going to be the more likely cut time keep in mind drum Powell said that March is not the base case so March is not the base case for a rate cut made that very clear some of the other things he noted labor demand is exceeding the supply of workers he did in his speech a few times Dodge the 6-month PC I think the reason he dodged the 6-month PC multiple times which you can see on this chart the 6-month PC is right here this like orange line it's 1.9% the 3month is like 1.6% so I think the reason jome Powell Dodges the six and the thre Monon is because he's he he has his prescription from all the other people of the fed and they're like look man you need to buy us until May okay whatever you need to say buy us until May every other freaking meeting JP comes up there he's like inflation on the 12 month is this on the the six month is this on the 3 months it's this this time yeah inflation on the 12- month is still elevated and then goes dark we he knows this is happening so somehow he's trying to buy time for the other members of the FED kicking this can down to May and I think I figured it out now what scares me and this is the part that scares me I too thought May was more likely until they decided they would end the bank term funding program so I thought they're going to cut in May it's not going to be March then they end the bank term funding program and I'm like ooh ending the bank term funding program you're going to end up having to cut in March then what happens today New York Community Bank collapses 37% if you haven't seen my video on it yet it's a big deal the freaking stock still down 37% this is a massive Bank this is a a bank that has over $80 billion in customer deposits and it's down 37% on the day they're losing more money quarter over quarter they're taking more losses and they don't have any more cash to pay out based on my reading okay watch the video I have a full video on the channel about it the New York Community Bank another big bank failure is in the Brewing but this is what actually gets really scary is Jerome Pal's basically like what banking crisis we're going to cut in may not March not only that not a single reporter okay not a single freaking reporter asked about the fact that from the statement they removed quote the banking system is sound and resilient so they removed the banking system is sound and resilient then after removing the banking system is sound and resilient what did I just tweet on Twitter on X I wrote what the f not a single question on Bank stability at today's fed meeting after New York Community Bank Flagstar plummets 37% and the FED removes banking is sounding resilient from their statement and and I go were the reporters instructed not to ask about banking or were they blind so they're either dumb and blind or they were asked not to ask about banking because this is a big deal so maybe somebody woke up this morning like I only have to do the FED meeting today I'm going to stop doing any kind of research this is crazy absolutely nuts okay anyway going back to eack oh quickly before I mention eack did you know that we have a coupon code expiring today you could get the gold membership the uh how to make more money with productivity and AI how does Kevin get done so much I give all my secrets and gold uh and the AI course stocks and psychology of money with Buy sell alerts zero to millionaire real estate investing do it-yourself Property Management be a real estate agent like Kevin or make videos like Kevin does on YouTube whatever all of them available we do have a price increase happening tonight at midnight so if you want to get in make sure to check these out when I add new lectures uh you get those as well okay so what else uh Dr Powell says we thought we needed a softening economy now this was bullish he says we thought we needed a softening economy but we might not need a softening economy and if we cut too late we could end up hurting the economy too much we have confidence in the economy but we want greater confidence on inflation he refused to give how much time that greater confidence would be does he need 7 months 8 months 10 months 12 months of data what does he need because he makes it clear that the six-month path of inflation right now is good and he made that clear later he did mention the stock market started selling off after he mentioned this he mentioned that hey we're not declaring Victory there's still some healing going on in labor and the supply chain uh uh side and we have no idea exactly where things are going to go and if they're going to disrupt inflation his worry is that if inflation anchors above 2% on the 12 month then we have to hike more or stay higher for longer right stay at well basically stay at 5.2 54 longer if inflation anchors below 2% he says that would not be what we would want uh and that would basically imply rate Cuts uh he's asked you know he asked he's asked sort of about a summary of the economy and he says look growth is still strong labor market indicates the labor market is strong two years of Labor Market under 4% that hasn't happened in 50 years 6 months of good inflation data this is a good situation let's be honest this is good but there is a chance we could see growth which hasn't happened yet there is a chance we could see more pain in the labor market uh and there's no guarantee that 12-month inflation will come down so he's really looking at that 12 month to be con uh convinced that it's down does that mean he's going to wait 6 months probably not because he would go too far uh now we did this is shocking we did not end up getting Bingo uh we got a lot of items here but we did not get bingo today uh we did not hear anything about that banking sound and resilient otherwise we would have had Bingo that he said that every freaking meeting that should have been an easy one didn't talk about New York Community Bank Red Sea geopolitics manufacturing China Germany nothing the only thing we talked about at this meeting was basically uh PC over and over and over again we didn't even talk about the bank term funding program bro this is like critical information are the banks going to owe all of their money back at the bank term funding programs expiration a or I mean cuz if they owe it all back when a banking crisis are they going to get loan extensions or they going to have some kind of repayment period what if a bank needs help afterwards but these are important questions this is like the first time I'm like pulling my hair out going bro what why are these questions like mental these were so bad uh I don't get it so either the FED is trying to like hide the banking issue uh in the bank term funding uh crisis or they're blind to it and and I don't know which one's more scary that it's being censored or people are blind to the problem I don't know but it's a problem uh regarding March he made it clear that March is not the base case we already touched on that the reverse repo facility does not have to go to zero to start having cuts and yes you could have Cuts with QT okay great uh so now the big question is what happens all right here's what's gonna happen the market needs to unpriceable for March so we're going to go from a coin toss to like 20% okay that's why the market is red the Market's going to have to absorb that we have to wait six more weeks between March 20th and May 1st for the rate cut big deal it's 25 basis points for 6 weeks suck it it's not that big of a deal but the market is going to have to eat that up and so the Market's going to have a little bit of an adjustment here once we finally unpriced the March rate cut then we need to pay attention to the banks the rest of earnings uh and uh and then we just sit here and pray and within the next uh probably two weeks we're expecting to fundraise for househ hack.com uh again if you want more updates on the real estate startup there's a link down below we have uh another update uh video that we posted about a week ago and we'll have another one coming out soon go to ec.com to see my full summary on uh you know pretty much the research that we do some of the things that we're paying attention to uh and then of course go to meetkevin.com to check out that coupon code for the courses on building your wealth and access to those course member live streams in the meantime uh huge thank you really appreciate all of you it's uh you know it's been a ride the last few uh uh few years and the fact that uh you know somewhere around 22,000 of y'all chose at the same time to hang out with me uh is pretty remarkable so uh as a as a thank you go yourself is that clear all right I had to do it anyway that's the FED update thanks so much I'm going to pay attention to the banks now if you haven't watched the rest of the bank videos go watch the bank videos join me in
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