저자: Jacka · 외국인
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AMD 급등 이유: 2017년 2월 Barron's 추천 이후 주가 상승, 과거 고점 근처에서 하락 후 회복. 신임 CEO 체제에서 칩 설계 인력 복귀, 데스크톱→노트북 신제품 출시 예정, 그래픽프로세서의 AI 시장 성장성 강조. 그러나 본문 예측은 제한적. Vistra(바이스트라): 파산 후 재편된 에너지 기업, 천然가스 가격 폭락으로 타격. 부채 축소와 Apollo, Oak Tree 등 월가 자금 참여로 저평가 매력 제시. 주가 상승 여력 언급. Chipotle(치포틀): 식품 안전 사고 반복으로 신뢰 훼손, 공급망 재건과 광고 비용 증가로 이익 압박. 기대치 대비 주가 고평가 우려, 단기 하락 가능성을 시사하며 몇 달 뒤 더 싼 가격 진입 가능성 언급. 전체적으로 AMD·Vistra 긍정, Chipotle 부정 시각이며 출연자는 세 종목 모두 구체적 기간 목표가는 제시하지 않음.
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a one- Time Tech darling that was left for dead is now surging on a Baron's recommendation I'm Jack otter editor of barons.com I'm here with Jacka senior editor of the magazine it's Monday so we talk about stocks moving after a mention in Baron's magazine and we've got microchips we've got energy providers and a leaky burrito yes let's start with the uh Tech darling AMD I think it almost hit 100 back in the go- go days of 2019 99 and was down around $2.60 2 years ago when TI and Ray recommended it uh yesterday at uh 12 and change he says it's still got a lot to go yeah it's up huge uh this is an an also ran to Intel of course in chips chips for personal computers chips for servers that's okay that's a pretty good spot to be in because there's only two main you know players in that business the question is is AMD going to have a minuscule share or a meaningful you know second highest share in this business and they've got some good things going on there there's a new chief who's taking charge in in that spot about two and a half years they had brought back a key designer from the past that has helped them with some new chip designs tyan says they have some new um designs that are going to be coming out in the in the coming quarters starting with desktops then rolling out notebooks and there's a lot of opportunity to grab share here he's impressed with what they're doing the bar is set low and you've got not only computer chips but also these Graphics processors which these days are being used for this you know machine learning and so forth artificial intelligence huge New Market there the key is their focus now instead of just sort of making these other things you could buy if you didn't like Intel they found a niche they're good at and that happens to be a growing Niche so it's a good place to be some of the people that we quote in the story saying like yeah used to be the engineers were running around doing whatever now the new Chief is saying look let's buckle down and get focus and they've found sort of a new Direction so uh very different kind of stock because most people haven't heard of it vistra it has no coverage but Andrew Barry dug it up uh it it's it was another stock left for dead though bankrupt uh company that just came out of bankruptcy in October and now he sees an opportunity the good thing about buying a company after a bankruptcy is you know that the debt has generally been brought down to manageable levels um this was a leveraged buyout uh birkshire hathway played a role in the financing they took a bath on it um but now the the the post bankruptcy company you know financially stronger they serve a good Market this this thing was brought down by a crash in the price of natural gas when you look at who the remaining stakeholders are this is what I think is the key here you see some some uh Wall Street money makers who know how to unlock value from a thing like this after this kind of bankrupcy transaction so I think you're it's Apollo it's Oak Tre you're going with smart money when you bet on the stock so you know I mean yeah it trades cheaply relative to other utilities cu no one knows what it is you when you buy you're in good company here and I think maybe they can unlock a higher share price so AMD jumped about 8 and a half% on our story uh vistra was up about 2 and a half% uh meanwhile on the other side you said Chipotle was something investors ought to stay away from it's down a little bit on your story what's wrong with your boot like well they they had a bad report late last week and so it tumbled a little bit towards the end of the week look I have nothing against uh Chipotle in fact you say the burritos are a pretty good deal I mean they're they're they're cheap and they're and they're tasting if you're you need a hearty appetite I think it's I think it's a young man's game it's a young man's game I I need a nap at like 3:00 if I eat one but but anyhow uh Chipotle is a company that was built around Word of Mouth advertising and the message is you know we were GMO free it's it's natural it's clean and you know that's problematic when you have that kind of company and you have the kind of food safety disasters that they had a couple of years back and not just one but multiple and over a period of several months and more than 10 states and so on it's problematic it can it be fixed yes companies do come back from this sort of thing but you have to spend money now you have to it's not just one problem that you have this is not like one store where you had a problem with some lettuce this is you have to reinvent your supply chain it costs money you know maybe an extra you know few percentage points of sales now you have to go out and you have to advertise because you need to bring folks back in you got to get the message out another few percentage points of sales so there's you're coming from a low Bas now now you know same store sales have cratered there can be some growth from here I just think they have to spend more money going forward and I think when you look at wall Street's earnings targets and you look at the multiple of the stock trades to those tget 48 times estimates yeah it begins to look very ambitious to the share price to me look you know can it work from here for investors there is a path to it working but I see a few more paths to it not working from here or they might just you might be able to buy that path at a much cheaper price a few months down the road I think you might be in thanks J thank you
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