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and then we did get a little bit maybe bullish over our skis so we pulled back to a support level where you feel more comfortable that's right I think most of the major indices have pulled back to what would be technically viewed by our technician Mark Newton as support so the NASDAQ is on the support line S&P did a 60% retrace of its recent rally and small caps have held above their prior highs these are all bullish support levels Tom Le of fundstrat global advisers predicts a bullish Outlook following nvidia's earnings seeing it as a clearing event that could stabilize Market he highlighted that major indices have pulled back to key support levels suggesting a solid foundation for growth Lee is optimistic about small cap stocks due to their discounted valuations faster earnings growth and minimal trade exposure positioning them for strong performance he also emphasized the pro business environment driven by deregulation tax cuts and improved market conditions favoring sectors like financials Industrials and cyclical while he acknowledged uncertainties in healthcare and Rising inflation expectations Lee believes the overall Market Outlook remains positive supported by easing monetary policies and robust economic activity I want to talk um another clearing event Nvidia you expect it to be a bullish clearing event I mean most likely I I think markets get very hesitant in front of nvidia's earning so once that's behind us we'll see demand is strong and I think Market breathes a s relief let's get to the markets here bring in Tom Lee here at Post 9 of course fun strad Global advisers co-founder managing partner head of research S&P Target for your n 6300 great to see you Tom great you have the you like to call them granny shots uh easy plays and in your view I I have to imagine that list has gotten longer yes uh it is it but it stayed around 35 names you know but just high quality names that are in the right sort of themes you we have seven themes and as long as they're more than one theme they become a granny shot um higher conviction on those names I imagine yes higher conviction and these are names that I think most people are going to be famili familiar with because they're large cap stocks there's some discussion about uh cyclicals today um that they make sense and a lot of you know people are looking to 2016 for analogues but some argue that there's not the commodity price support that you might have had in a prior cycle you buy that uh you don't necessarily need commodity prices to help cyclical yeah energy but even materials to some degree yes that's right yes so for those I I would say yes I'd say the outlook for energy stocks isn't great uh as good as people might expect under a trump presidency just because expanded drilling is lower oil prices but for cyclicals like Industrials and financials this is you know for all the things you guys were discussing a great environment including m&a and cost of money falling and animal spirits and deregulation do you think there is real reflation risk at the in the next say 6 months uh that is something that we can see how markets are repricing and there's a measure called onee inflation one year forward so what do markets think one year inflation is a year from now that has been creeping up it's actually now at 3.6 it's been a trigger point in the past where the market starts to worry so whether it's the you know the ex the deportation that's causing that or fiscal you know fiscal spending I'm not sure but you know it is markets are starting to think about it or more just better growth Outlook could help inflation expectations rise I guess where Trump trade 1.0 ran into trouble was around trade policy and and once we see what he delivers there in terms of tariffs something he's been very very consistent on do you think the market is looking past that or everything else the deregulation the lower corporate taxes is going to offset any weakness on trade um I mean I think that if someone was trying to paint a negative picture that's the the tariffs and the trade is is what's on people's minds but of course that's the one where we don't know what the ultimate sort of policies will be I'm sure markets will actually provide a lot of real-time feedback and I think that's going to help shape what the policy is so I think in general we should expect a pro business environment one that's probably Equity friendly as well uh where are we on uh fundamentals and just you know in terms of this recent rally in terms of multiples and your expectations on earnings as we head into next year uh I mean earnings season I think actually actually as as we're wrapping up is is still been very solid as you know the dragon earnings has been energy and some of the commodity groups as well as Healthcare but you know groups like Industrials and Tech are are still producing good numbers I think next year the Outlook should be good because cost of money's coming down and we're seeing housing activity pick up and if there's mergers um this is actually much better for small caps and small cap earnings growth has been around 40% so I think it still sort of guides us to the same trades which is we want be more cyclical over the next 6 months and then also look at things like small caps and Bitcoin small caps why merg just give me a little bit more on why small caps are going to be a bigger beneficiary well part of it is the backdrop small caps have underperformed for the last five years by really the largest margin in 25 years they're now trading at 10 times median PE relative and for the S&P that's almost 18 times so a 7 PE discount small cap earnings growth is faster and not only that but roughly uh 44% of it is what I'd call very cyclical and that's things like Regional Banks and Industrials that's going to that's a bigger weight than in the S&P and then finally you know there's a lot of cash on the sidelines and I think if people are looking for Mark breath expansion at small C well they also don't have the trade exposure they get the they get the benefit from lower taxes and regulation a good without the tariffs also so it feels like they're in The Sweet Spot that's right and the the margin of outperformance could be sizable I mean they've underperformed by almost 100 percentage point so I think you can recover that over the next few years we were mentioning Elon Musk a moment ago um and over the weekend he endorsed this notion from Senator Lee about and the FED essentially Journal over the weekend with the piece about pal preparing or or being ready to defend a removal if in fact he's asked to leave uh do you think the Bond Market would Revolt at any kind of attempts to influence the fed or re executiv IE the FED yeah I mean absolutely I mean the FED uh is the most powerful entity in the world and part of it is its independence and it's something that even the bond market is scared of uh I I think changing this this structure of the central bank would be not good for Capital markets I was wondering whether things were getting overdone when the journal says a melt up could be in the cards um and the Trump trade has already been going for a while you think it's just getting started at this point there there's a lot probably for the markets uh to like I guess in terms of I mean he likes easy money he likes low regulation he likes lower taxes I mean there's a lot it's more than a two-e rally maybe in your view that's right and I think maybe markets are course correcting because now with Doge the Govern Department of government efficiency there may be cuts to health care and Industrials because a defense spending so things that investors can focus on more deregulation of animal spirits more like small caps and financials all right what about um Healthcare you mentioned that in particular I mean it it it's not just Doge that's going to be looking for more ways of efficiency it's also um changes a foot with RFK Jr we're going to speak with Mark balini about that in a minute but how does the market kind of weigh that out yeah I I think it's going to be a a tough period for visibility for healthc care because um you know even recent comments about how much healthc care spending dominates advertising um when you're not in the political cycle and you're right there's there's concerns about safety of certain vaccines and RFK being in charge of HHS so I would just say there's clouds there's still going to be opportunities probably in biotechs but it's going to be challenging uh just about the overall markets Tom and you think leading into Thanksgiving that that that slow sort of uh bleed that with slow bleed last week in the market you expect that not to uh not to be lasting and multiple factors make you feel good about the next couple of weeks and one of them which is plays into what we've been talking about all morning and is the treasury secretary announcement we remove some uncertainty you're following poly Market to see who's and what bessent was at 70 but then musk said uh tweeted about letnik and his chances went up what what is it now uh they've both Fallen they've both Fallen to sub 40% so it uh you know part of it is Kevin warsh has moved up and Mark Rowan has moved up we're using poly Market to decide who's going to be the treasury secretary stranger things have happened right so that's you think we hear this week and that'll remove uncertainty or you that's not the most important thing well I I think as we remove uncertainty so it may not be announced in the next week or so I I think that's a like what I'd consider a clearing event it takes away some uncertain uncertainty and the Trump trade I think is still intact the FED uh might not cut as quickly as as possible but you still said still we're in a good place doish wise that's right I last week uh markets were a little taken by surprise when Fed chair P said he might you know slow things down for December but if you look at December 2025 a year from now the number of implied Cuts is still the same so I think he's doish he's just moving some of the timing Tom Lee of fun Strat Global advisers remains positive on the market viewing nvidia's earnings as a key event to stabilize investor sentiment he highlights small cap stocks as a standout opportunity due to their discounted valuations and minimal trade exposure with key indices holding support Lee believes growth sectors like financials Industrials and cyclicals are well positioned for gains despite uncertainties in healthare and Rising inflation expectations Lee is confident that easing monetary policies and strong economic activity will support market performance his insights encourage investors to focus on opportunities while staying mindful of potential risk do you believe small cap stocks are poised for a strong recovery as Tom Le suggests how might Regulatory and economic shifts influence your investment decisions
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