저자: DanIves · 외국인
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트럼프 행정부 하에서 규제 완화와 AI 인프라 투자 확대로 빅테크 강세 지속을 전망. 엔비디아는 중국 칩 수출 협상 카드에도 AI 지배력이 유지되며 실적이 컨센서스를 상회할 것이고 시총 4조 달러 가능성을 언급. 애플은 아이폰16 수요 호조로 AI 슈퍼사이클 시작으로 평가. M&A 붐과 프라이빗 기업 IPO 증가 전망. 기술적으로 S&P500은 갭 유지 여부, VIX는 15 부근 지지 확인이 관건이며 엔비디아는 141달러 돌파 확인 시 157달러 목표 제시.
다듬은 글
and it's something that's going to ultimately play out I you saw the tariffs I think it's had a contained impact on Nvidia but it it continues to be our belief this is all setting up for a golden age of AI not just for NVIDIA but for broader Tech but it's a bargaining chip as they negotiate with Beijing what um lastly and then I got to go Nvidia uh what is next week the earnings right uh what do we think about this heading in get the popcorn get the watch parties ready I mean this is going to be a jaw-dropper I think Street still underestimating in terms of where numbers go over the next 1 2 years I think this is one you know they will battle but ultimately 4 trillion Mark caps on the horizon we'll leave it there Dan look no no doubt I mean we there was some soft around the edges that we saw with Amazon we saw it on YouTube from an ad perspective but then you look at what we believe just this fourth Industrial Revolution that's getting built out look at Microsoft in terms of the Azure guidance look what we saw from cloud from Google from Amazon from Microsoft look what we saw from paler from a use case perspective and I think service now also starting to see Dan Ives underscores nvidia's Central role in the US China chip debate emphasizing its dominance in AI as a significant bargaining tool despite geopolitical challenges he remains confident that Nvidia will Thrive predicting its upcoming earnings will exceed expectations further cementing its position in what he calls a golden age of AI he highlights the broader fourth Industrial Revolution with major investments in AI infrastructure and cloud computing from Tech giants like Microsoft Amazon and Google I've seiz this as the start of a massive trillion doll investment era driving growth in the tech sector despite some macroeconomic hurdles looking ahead Ives anticipates a wave of mergers and Acquisitions particularly in AI cyber security and software fueled by a favorable regulatory enironment he believes this shift marks a transformative period for tech companies to accelerate growth and innovation across both public and private market so I mentioned your new title and with that comes with a little bit wider scope of a coverage Universe now including Nvidia um how do you see the political debate around selling chips in China is there risk around that now more so than ever because of the relationship that Trump's going to have with the Chinese yeah I think it's a it's a bargaining chip because Trump musk everyone knows there's only one game in town it's Nvidia right it's Godfather ve Jens and Nvidia and this is going to give them more negotiating power in terms of chips into China Trump getting in combin I think everything Alex talked about great phenomenal points this is now the beginning of the new era of this bull market for Tech so we we've seen in some sectors um a boost now that there's the idea that'll be less regulation do you expect Tech to get that same kind of boost longer term I mean I think the consensus is that Lena will no longer be at the FTC there's going to just be a different regulatory environment con's been a nightmare for Tech and I think the view is with her out it changes the whole landscape I think some stuff Alex talked about the regulatory environment is going to be so much more friendly in terms of deals in terms of m&a I think big Tech you're going to now start to see them getting a little more aggressive when it comes to m&a specifically in AI as his AI Revolution plays out so a I want to come back over to you and talk about some of these big private Tech companies I mean I'm talking SpaceX $210 billion valuation open AI a more than $150 billion valuation stripe um kind of a sleeping giant um over $65 billion valuation does a trump presidency does this lead them to possibly come to the the public markets faster does it change the valuation picture I mean what does it do to these companies that have been outside the public markets seemingly waiting to possibly jump in yeah I think uh absolutely we're going to see the public markets open sooner uh you know now that we have clarity about what's going to happen in the white house uh I think as Dan points out you know m&a markets are open for business I we have a lot of friends who are incredibly excited to start making Acquisitions and that'll help recycle the capital uh in addition to the IPOs that I think are uh inevitable and just you know waiting to happen all right so I get to have some fun I get to do what you normally do I get to play with the charts here so we're going to start with our first chart looking at the SNP the Spy in fact and kind of looking at the rally for the Trump trade we're going to show it in just a minute so you say right here here's what we need to watch kind of a gap right here what's this Gap telling us up here so I think that's our theme of the week is to watch the gaps from last week so we saw the the very positive reaction on Wednesday and with that the market opened very strongly and it left these gaps in its wake so we are always watching the gaps because if the market or you know the spiders or really any individual security were to pull back very quickly into that Gap that tends to be a setback so the gaps can be Clues as to the sustainability of the up move for us py in particular it rallied nearly 5% last week a really impressive up move saw good upside follow through straight away so it has a good chance of holding that Gap but it really does need to hold that Gap to preserve the breakout this week all right we are seeing a lot of enthusiasm at least in the pre-market right now so we have to wait and see if the technicals lead us in the right direction I want to go to something else right now I'm going to clear the charts again this is a lot of fun I see why you like to do this Katie let's go to the Vick's chart right now um so we're going to look at overbought and oversold conditions from here and then from about here so the top line I believe is the overbought and the bottom is the oversold what is that telling us what are the charts telling us here it's really interesting on the vix a very like clear trading range has unfolded that range is bound by support roughly 15 and resistance roughly 2223 within that range we would say that the high volatility cycle that began in July is still intact whereas if that 15 area was broken more decisively the bottom boundary of that range that would suggest that the market is indeed going to be able to continue higher and of course that would mean a lower volatility cycle has taken hold again so with an oversold condition in the vix near that support you would expect to see some consolidation meaning it starts to go sideways and ultimately sees an oversold bounce and you could then translate that of course to the S&P 500 to which it's inversely correlated and expect some kind of consolidation and pullback in the S&P it's just a matter of how dramatic is that going to be all right KY we want going to get to another stock uh newest Dow component every Trader I talk to owns it talks about it all the time we used to almost be CNBC envidia here so I'm talking about NV of course I'm going to show the chart right here so right here we're seeing the 100 day moving average right here this is the purple line and a purplish line the 200 day that's the goldish line and right here you're seeing an area of resistance what does that tell you about this stock and this trade so we're saying that Nvidia is so-called testing resistance the 141 level was cleared very decisively last week on a 9% rally so that leaves a breakout pending confirmation this week in our work so on Friday if we see a close above that level by Nvidia that would confirm the breakout and a bullish development the measured move price objective from that breakout would be about 157 maybe that's a little bit conservative longer term but it's more of an intermediate term objective and the reason we would wait for that confirmation is really twofold one because Nvidia like everything else has that Gap that we want to keep an eye on this week but there is a short-term counter Trend signal likely today from our Demar indicators and also there's a pretty good spread right now to support which is roughly 130 for NVIDIA so we really want to see that confirmation to feel like we can then be more constructive on the upside follow through this is the start of just a massive we believe a trillion dollars of CBS over the coming years and I'm not saying that it's necessarily going to be there's going to be some speed bumps along the way in Tech but I believe this Tech bull market is well under way despite obiously some of the macro worries that we've seen over the last week and that's how we're handholding investors through it yeah and what and that's really across Asia in terms of suppliers how we've always been able to really I think get a beat in terms of our view of the supply chain for iPhone and this start off units coming out we're call it 80 to 84 million for iPhone 16 and now we're at we believe about 90 million and potentially higher and and that's important because that's essentially what apple is telling suppliers in terms of what the demand out looks like on iPhone 16 we continue to believe this is the start of an aid driven super cycle for app your new note says uh under a trump Administration you see more m&a when it comes to Tech why is that and and what areas yeah it's been a gold I think it's going to be a Goldilocks when it comes to mmaa look regulatory has been a huge issue valuation hubris I think now we are going to see a tital wave of m&a specifically around AI infrastructure software cyber security you know I think I've seen many on the private and public it's almost like a tech prom but on both sides no one's really asking anyone to dance now I think this thing starts we could see just massive m&a under a trump Administration in my opinion all right so that's in the the public markets Alex I'm going to come over to you um you're an early stage investor as we mentioned in and in Pinterest and Airbnb you have a lot of exposure to the private Market markets following the election of uh president Trump or president-elect Trump I should say um what does that mean for tech companies in the private markets before we heard valuations were under some pressure does that change now that uh Trump is taking the White House again I think it's really bullish for private companies overall I think there's some in particular especially the companies in the Elon Musk Universe like SpaceX that it's just extremely bullish for you know we've seen what Elon Musk can do under what has essentially been an adversarial uh a White House you know with a neutral or a favorable White House I think it's just going to be incredible what we see and I think this is cross the board in private markets so Alex you know we were talking uh you know off air you call it the the mus economy we have a Graphic right here calling it Elon Musk corporate Empire I mean it's a wide range of companies it's the boring company it's xai it's of course X itself it's Tesla um SpaceX so when we look at these different companies um in your mind um what kind of valuation premium do we now have under what seems to be a much friendlier Administration that Elon Musk actually may be a part of yeah I mean I think there's a sense in which you could even say that SpaceX and Tesla are so big that they help Trump win the election I think with um you know less regulation and an ethos towards building in the United States we're going to see the deployment of these you know potentially extraordinary infrastructures at a much much faster clip uh throughout the country but especially in the uh in the r states that voted for him so Dan I want to come back over to you uh again your new note says you're going to see more m&a You're expect to see more m&a under Trump presidency but we were actually together on Election night you were here in studio with us we were talking about this we saw some of the stock surging Tesla we've covered that ground we well covered it but you say there's some other stocks paler also uh Google and also Apple um you see as beneficiaries why is that this is going to be a golden error for AI infrastructure and and I think front and center is going to be paler I think everything carp and the the team are doing I think from a US DOD perspective in terms of the belt we're going to see massive spending there hyperscalers you look at Microsoft Amazon Google I mean this is really it is going to be a new era of AI infrastructure and then when it comes to Apple despite some of the China tariff worries I think this consumer AI Revolution goes through copertino which is why I believe in my opinion for tech for NVIDIA Dan IES highlights nvidia's pivotal role in the US China ship debate and its dominance in AI predicting it will Thrive despite geopolitical challenges he foresees a golden age of AI with massive investments from Tech giants like Microsoft and Google Driving innovation in AI infrastructure and cloud computing he also anticipates a surge in mergers and Acquisitions particularly in Ai and cyber security as a favorable regulatory environment emerges this IES believes marks the beginning of a transformative era for Tech Paving the way for Accelerated growth across public and private Market Will shape the tech industry's future what impact do you believe a surge in mergers and Acquisitions will have on Innovation and competition in the tech sector
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