저자: KathyWood · 외국인
요약 보기
ARK 펀드가 금리 급등과 기술주 약세로 2021년 손실 상태. 금리 상승은 시장이 예상보다 빠른 변화에 놀란 것이며 장기적으로 3~5% 정상화 가능성 언급. 가치주로의 순환은 2016년 말 사례처럼 시장이 넓어지는 신호로 해석, ARK에 장기적으로 유리하다고 주장. 테슬라는 전기차 점유율이 17%→20%+로 상승, 자율주행 역량 강화로 목표가 상향 예정이며 장기적으로 승자독식 가능성 주장. 은행·에너지 등 전통 섹터는 장기적으로 파괴될 것이라 경고. 비트코인은 채권처럼 움직이며 60/20/20 포트폴리오 편입 가능성 언급. 인비타(Invitae) 등 유전체 진단 기업에 매력 제시.
다듬은 글
kathy woods arc etfs which saw record inflows earlier this year are getting whacked with the broader tech weakness all five of arkhanvest's actively managed etfs are now negative for 2021. joining us now for a first on cnbc interview is arc invest ceo kathy wood kathy welcome back to the show good to have you great to be here sarah thank you it's been amazing to watch your rise and your funds rise over the last year and yet the past few weeks have been absolutely brutal the ark innovation etf down 31 from from the recent highs how concerned are you about these rising interest rates and what that's doing to a lot of your high growth companies about valuations sure uh well we've been struck that uh the market never priced in 0.5 one or 1.5 interest rates uh we think the market never believed interest rates would stay down here and so it it over time we believe has used sort of a normalized three to five percent uh so we we don't think that is why the market is uh correcting here we do think the speed of the increase in interest rates is scaring people uh it became very comfortable in a low interest rate environment nothing that's what i said it's the rate of change uh to to become involved with the market and i think this has shaken a lot of investors up maybe perhaps and i would say even in the bond market in particular we've been in a 40-year bull market in bonds so i think there's a lot of confusion and i i think there's a little bit of paralysis here i also think that there is a very rapid rotation now into value stocks we've seen energy up year-to-date uh 39 financials up about 16 uh those are traditional value sectors uh and so i think that's been part of the reason for ark's uh setback but if i could add a little perspective to this this happened to us in the fourth quarter of 2016 as well right after president trump was elected the stock market took off because tax rates were going to go down and so forth and so the market started pricing in a very strong cycle uh which was correct uh in that period of time our our strategies went negative and what i said at the time and what i believe now is that the bull market was broadening out to incorporate value or more cyclical sectors and i thought that was going to be very good news for our strategy longer run the worst thing that could have happened to us was another tekken telecom type bubble where the market narrowed narrowed so that only a few groups won right now the market is broadening out and we think in an underlying sense the bull market is strengthening and that will play to our benefit over the longer term how about tesla specifically which is now off 37 from the recent highs is down another more than 5 today everyone wants to know what your new price target is kathy because the last time you gave that price target it seemed crazy to a lot of people and then not so much when tesla actually rocketed 700 percent so where are you now on where that stock goes well we're about to publish i i'm hoping it's within a week or two our new forecasts our confidence in tesla has gone up for a number of reasons one it didn't lose share of the electric vehicle market when all of the traditional luxury brand names started bringing their own electric vehicles to market now we expect it will lose share but our expectation is was that its share would go from 17 at the end of 2018 down to 11 as more electric vehicles were coming out instead what happened that share moved up to more than 20 percent and roughly 80 percent in the u.s market 80 of electric vehicles so that's the first source of confidence market share up not down the second is autonomous we believe that uh elon musk who over the weekend tweeted out that he would offer or tesla would offer uh full service driving uh to anyone who wanted it i saw an incredible burst in demand so for him to be able to do that suggest to us that he's going to be able to show us the way to autonomous much faster than most analysts and investors expect so our our the probability we have put on uh tesla really winning the lion's share of the autonomous taxi network market in the united states also has gone up so you might imagine the price targets have gone up considerably i have a broader question on tesla in a moment kathy but but quickly first on on self-driving technology are you saying all of the revelations and news from the company in the last couple of weeks has only improved your outlook on the company because some analysts based on the response to freedom information request uh were underwhelmed by by the out the outlining that they're more like level two in terms of that technology than perhaps some expected uh the announcement to be well we believe uh that tesla has been doing this differently uh staging uh the movement into autonomous differently from other companies like waymo and cruise automation uh and so i can understand why there's some confusion uh we think that uh their strategy is not market by market ultimately but national uh and so i i i think there's a misunderstanding about how they're going to market um my broad question on tesla kathy and you have been so right on this company and so many other companies that that you know i sit and think who am i to even bother asking this question but but i think it is fair to compare things today to amazon uh to to people who were right to be bullish on amazon as as it pulled back in 1999 for a couple of years because of where it is now but it did take almost a decade for it to get back above its pre-pullback 99 peak during a period of time when it continued to take market share continued to grow revenues continued to grow profit but there was a nine-year period where the share price was underwater is that not possible to apply to tesla going here even if you're absolutely right that the company's top and bottom lines continue to grow continue to take share well i know the amazon story well because i was living eating and breathing at the entire time so what we saw in the tekken telecom bust was uh the recognition that uh we were not ready for prime time for a lot of the companies evolving at that at that time and so there were a wave of bankruptcies uh and uh and the psychology became well uh many people thought that the internet was a figment of wall street's imagination and that no one would make any money off of it and amazon included and the time period you're talking uh about wilfred was when um amazon basically was saying look we will we will be as close to cash flow neutral as possible but we are going to turn every revenue uh dollar we possibly can back into investing that's how they won but they did not show profitability not any substantial profitability but often losses for for many many years they just believed that if they uh if they invested aggressively at that time that they would win the lion's share of the uh online retail market and that was absolutely right i think that tesla has already passed through that uh uh phase of its life it did invest aggressively and it has on on four metrics uh it is leading the charge so to speak so battery technology costs lower than anyone else's out there and will remain lower uh artificial intelligence chip it designed its own no one else has designed its own chip this is analogous to apple in the day smartphone uh or no cellular uh companies nokia ericsson motorola didn't see the future apple did and yet it couldn't get qualcomm or intel to move quickly enough it had to design its own chip and of course now apple uh basically accounts for the lion's share of all the profits from smartphones in the world we think this is going to happen uh also with tesla maybe not worldwide because we know china wants its own champion but that ai chip that uh that tesla designed our analyst said uh was four years ahead of where nvidia was at the time and this was a couple of years ago they have more data collected than any other company by orders of magnitude not just by any other company but by all other companies out there because the largest pool of data with the highest quality is going to win in the ai game they have the largest pool of data and finally until very recently tesla was the only automobile manufacturer able to improve performance uh of its cars with over-the-air software updates i got my model 3 in 2018 never had a problem except a wheel a nail in the wheel which they couldn't correct over the air of course never a problem so what they've done is extraordinary and i think this is their market to lose i think they're in a very very different place also we're not in the tech and telecom bust we are 20 years later all of the seeds for what is happening were planted back then now they're coming to fruition autonomy should have known that tesla off the session lows down 4.8 percent kathy if you would stay with us because we're going to take a quick break and we have a lot to hit to when we come back including crypto i know you're a fan and some of your other holdings we saw right there on the wall like palantir and square stay with us here on closing valve we schlatt okay so let's uh while uh well while they go on a quick little break here let's do a little summary as to what was just said here so uh first thing i want to touch on is the the you know really what's causing this uh this is something that look a lot of people identify trends in a marketplace and we were actually just talking about this over here in the uh in the private course member live chat which obviously if you haven't joined yet get yourself that uh 38 off look at that we got a nice little banner here you can go down below it expires on march 15th why not okay so i need lifetime access too which is great but anyway uh kathy what identifies the same thing that we've talked about on this channel before very early on that that the risk here has been the velocity or the acceleration rather of rates going up and now how rates are really consistently sitting up so it's kind of like that that rush up that that sort of boop uh and then now that we're sitting there is a really potentially driving some of the anxiety here i personally think that may have started this anxiety but i actually think that this the rotation into uh you know recovery stocks is actually really taking the lead right now so it's kind of like if there are two drivers in a car one is you know both of them are sitting here this is the recovery driver this is the rates driver i think the rates driver hit the gas really hard really fast like floored it and we took off like that caused a big shock to the market now the the rates driver is kind of taking the foot off the gas a little bit and at the same time the recovery driver is kind of putting the foot on the gas a little bit so it's kind of like you got these people in charge and tech is just in the back going oh that's kind of the way the market feels right now personally i think it's just going to be a matter of time before society realizes that recovery and rates are stupid drivers of the stock market and the tech driver will come back in the market you know going along with this analogy here where tech will circle back and the tech will include the end phase and the electric vehicle stocks all of which which are selling off to great discounts today i mean if if you were somebody who was new to the stock market right now let's say you had even if you got money in your portfolio and you're down right now to november lows you know certainly you're not down to like the summer of last year's lows try to forget for a moment the rest of your portfolio as hard as it is to do and ask yourself okay cool hey if i'm getting paid on friday would i buy stocks at today's levels and when you look at stocks today it's like man tesla 566 neo 35 yeah i'd consider buying some of that right in my opinion that's what i'm looking at now do i want to buy cheesecake factory where it is now less inclined to do that i certainly see way more of a run potential in neo now than in cheesecake factory now so personally i think this this rotation into value or recovery is getting a little overdone one of the downsides of this that kathy hasn't brought up yet is the potential for value traps but she is back on so we'll circle back we're sticking around i i wanted to ask about bitcoin a big picture question over the next decade do you think it will prove to continue to be correlated with risk assets or will it emerge to be negatively correlated in a way that you could argue gold perhaps has been over the long term or the dollar has been uh in terms of its correlation with stocks what's been interesting about the correlations uh bitcoin to any other asset class is the correlations have actually been very very low over time in fact the highest correlation is between bitcoin and real estate now the irs taxes bitcoin as property but i don't think that's the reason for this correlation it just so happens it's that so we think that as it becomes a better accepted uh new asset class and and we are seeing institutional movement into the space and we're seeing the diversification of balance sheets and into from cash into bitcoin we do think it will be uh it will behave actually i would say more like the fixed income markets believe it or not uh if you think about bonds from this level you know this idea of a 60 40 balanced portfolio is a bit problematic we've been through a 40-year bull market in bonds we would not be surprised to see this new asset class become a part of those percentages maybe 60 equity 20 20.
uh so i actually think that might be the biggest surprise here i wanted to ask about fintech as well i know you're a big believer there and i wondered whether you look at the incumbent financial companies and banks in a different light than perhaps you do the incumbent autos compared to tesla or the incumbent retailers compared to amazon 10 or 20 years ago are any of the traditional banks with all the investment they're putting into tech whether it's goldman with marcus city with their partnership with google or the investments the big banks have made into zell whether any of those banks are investable as plays on fintech or are they all going to get crushed like certain retailers and autos have been well uh it's interesting that you say that um we we have often um expressed uh a point of view that there's old dna and new dna it's very it when when uh the technology platforms shift it's very hard for dna uh to shift from old to new that said you've seen with walmart you're going to have a walmart a target a costco so you'll have maybe two or three mega banks and yes a lot of them are investing aggressively now which is what they should be doing but we do believe that uh the two of the biggest uh sectors that will be disrupted in in the world today are the two that have been best performing this year energy and financial services so choose wisely and make sure you're on the right side of change make sure these companies are investing enough have invested enough so many companies simply uh leveraged up to buy back shares and now they're facing this huge investment uh mandate so make sure make sure that you invest in those that will be the survivors and we do think that the carnage is going to be pretty significant in both the energy and the financial services sector long term now uh in a v-shaped recovery and we think we're in a very strong recovery right now they're going to do fine they're going to do fine and in fact the yield curve is very wide by recent standards so that should accrue to the benefit of financial services broadly so we're not saying that this is a fake out short term but we are saying long term watch out yeah kathy just back to your funds performance just recently and and what we've been seeing how are you navigating these heavy first inflows and now outflows and my other questions are related to that is is why are you selling liquid stocks for illiquid stocks in a downturn well it's part of our strategy so in the coronavirus uh we concentrated our portfolio towards our highest conviction name so the flagship portfolio got down to 33 names as the bull market extended we added names it's up to 55 names many of those names were much more liquid stocks and so you're right sarah when we get opportunities like this to invest in pure plays instead of more mature plays still innovation but more mature and not as pure play we will move back into pure play those are the more volatile names of course and uh so we're getting great opportunities and just to give you a sense of that our minimum hurdle rate of return for any stock to enter our portfolio is 15 over a five-year period so that's a doubling over five years now consider the source but given the very sharp pullback we have had here recently uh nothing's changed from our point of view on our long-term projections so the only thing that's changed is the rate of return so a 25 rate of return over five years so we're becoming more and more optimistic about our portfolios in the sell-off we could we could go through a number of stocks that that you like and that are all high interest on the street from palantir to square why why don't you give us besides tesla which we know you're a big fan of and your your conviction has increased there what where which one you think is the most underappreciated name right now in your portfolio that you'd be looking to add positions to well um we just went through this this morning uh in vitae in the molecular diagnostic space is probably one of the most important companies in the genomic revolution and it is getting hammered uh you know it's a company that has had uh historically small cash cushions although they've changed they've uh rectified that with offerings which is great um but it's investing aggressively to be the leader in the molecular diagnostic uh uh testing space many people the disconnect for many people here is when that one statement just led the stock up like seven percent corp and quest diagnostics which are effectively very mature companies commoditized value stocks and so it is a little bit like tesla in the automobile industry the new lab tests which are going to be informed by artificial intelligence and big data and super computing power uh are goi are we believe in a winner take most market as we move into personalized medicine much different from one test for all although we'll see multi-cancer screening certainly in that realm but we think the move towards personalized testing is going to give just a few companies the lion's share of the market those companies with the most data the highest quality data and the best ai expertise kathy great to see you thanks so much for joining us today thank you thank you wilfred and sarah very much uh we've only got nine minutes left of the session yeah we do okay so let's break down a little bit more about what she said here so she did end up bringing up the value stock portion by the way she is going to bloomberg in about 70 minutes she'll be on bloomberg and we'll watch that as well uh but uh look she she did go into value traps after the talk here or after her or the commercial break that we had one of the things to keep in mind about value traps she's not i feel like she's not purposefully not being like super blunt but basically what she's saying is hey y'all you gotta be real careful about buying the crap that people are buying right now just because it's going up because these are companies that are buying back their shares and spend money wasted money on dividends rather than investing into transitioning into the future maybe they'll create a future committee and invest in the future in the future uh she's she's obviously very very frustrated but she's expressing it in a very logical way and this has become a benefit for her though which she just mentioned this this bum that she just dropped i think flew by a lot of us uh and i want to really highlight this one right here so her thing is over five years usually she wants to see a 2x over five years she wants to see the portfolio 2x that's a 15 compounded annual rate of return she just said at today's prices we are revising that to 25 compounded annual rate of return that is 3x kathy wood is now saying at these prices i expect stocks to 3x so while everybody's running over to cheesecake and all this other crap and i'm saying that in her paraphrasing right i'm really overly paraphrasing here but while people are running over to this other stuff they're creating an opportunity that now means we're expecting a 3x return on on people who are basically buying these stocks today pretty powerful uh now uh i did also by the way i sent a tweet to her uh just about two minutes ago so if you can go to uh realme kevin on twitter and uh and and retweet i would love to have your support mostly because i would love for us to be able as a community here to get kathy on this channel so your help in making this happen would be really cool i i don't think she will block me for for this but uh no i i would love to see kathy uh uh on here because i want to ask her about the difference of a of opinion we have regarding the fed what if she's wrong what if the fed isn't going to jack rates sooner than expected of course then we'll also have to talk about what if she's right uh you know we'll also have to talk about some of her individual stock picks what do we think about square's relatively stretchy valuation compared to something that feels relatively inexpensive compared to tesla now she does have more of a tesla position than square but we want to we want to be able to ask about these particular things so we can identify in our portfolio why a certain stock pick over another obviously if we were to get kathy on i'll also put a q a section in the private stock group where we can uh where i can ask you anytime i usually anytime i do an interview where i will certainly from now on uh but and i've done this more sporadically but i need to be more consistent about it i like to have a little channel where just like oh ask questions for this guest coming up and it's a great way to interact there so uh at realme kevin on twitter would would love to see your support uh for this uh no no no paper hands no paper hands no kathy's uh killing it i'm in big support of what she's doing so uh let's go let's look at the sticks here so we've actually got a little bit of a pump here oh wait hold on we got to keep going with with uh one more thing that kathy mentioned so one more thing about kathy wood is uh she really went deep on tesla she talked about how phenomenal it is that uh tesla is is really going to be allowing people to manually download the beta for full self-driving and honestly she's right that is a huge catalyst now people are upset that there were some foia requests freedom of information act requests that where basically tesla says look we're telling regulatory agencies this is level two technology which means it's not really full self-driving right personally i think tesla's doing that because they're saying it's a beta we're still requiring people to hold the wheel so it could be level three but it's basically level three with an asterisk where tesla's telling the government we're still telling people to hold on to the steering wheel i don't see that as much of an issue i mean green was tweeting about this yesterday i was reading these threads you know he's somebody who likes to hack into the code behind tesla's work and does a great job i i don't think any of that is an issue i actually am in heavy support of rather than this like oh let's just have a thousand people or maybe two or three thousand people doing the self-driving beta this is a huge inflection point for tesla when that full self-driving beta comes out because it basically means i mean look the older self-driving stuff this stuff was basically a beta anyway i mean not really but i mean there are some k like you can't fully trust this the self-driving yet uh it's it's basically still level two beta-ish you know and i'm obviously uh oversimplifying here but being a tesla driver look i trusted a lot on the freeway but i can't trust the thing everywhere and you start getting used to where you can trust it or not but kathy's right that is that is going to be an under appreciated facet of tesla evaluation until it actually becomes appreciated i honestly think most tesla analysts are not including the true disruptive potential full self-driving in fact i uh responded to a tweet earlier today as somebody was showing off uh chevy cruze's cadillac you know self-driving and i almost wanted to vomit i mean the thing is like three years behind tesla i remember dealing with the problems it had to deal with three years ago it's shocking uh anyway so uh projections have changed going from okay and the other thing that she's doing is she's concentrating into her higher conviction stocks this is what i'm doing with new money i sold before the crash i sold around what was it one to 1.5 million i sent out buy alerts to to everyone in the stock group which remember use that coupon below and get your 38 off uh expiring in about seven days but anyway yeah you know that that that was in my opinion the time to shave down my lower conviction stocks that's around the same time i sold microvision for example and some of these other ones and that gave me some more of an opportunity to really go shopping over the last few weeks here so okay that's the part on kathy wood
Comments 0