Cathie Wood’s Update on the Market Crash | Details.

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2021년 3월 조정 국면에서 Cathie Wood의 매수 입장과 혁신주 투자 논리를 전달하는 영상. 전기차 판매 연 82% 성장 기대, 테슬라 등 S커브 초기 성장 강조. 반면 기존 가치평가(PER·PBR)와 레거시 기업(포드, 극장, 리테일)은 부정적. 인플레이션은 일시적이며 금리 상승 가능성은 있으나 장기 고금리는 아니라는 시각. 출연자는 본인 포트폴리오(ETSY, TSLA, PTON, PINS 등)도 소개.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. hey everyone meet kevin here kathy wood just provided some new insights into what her opinion is of the market and i thought hey you know what why not add a little bit of insight on top of her insight because well it's always good to have more insight right and if i say insight one more time i think we're gonna have to start a challenge where you take a shot every time i say insight okay let's get into the insight so we're very excited she says about the opportunities of the last few weeks and i have to say of all the paper-handing sissies that exist out there like mr chamspock who decided to block me on twitter uh yes thank you kathy for breathing some life into the wonderful opportunities that we have presented to us there are so many wonderful opportunities and to keep buying at times like these actually is the reason why you can generate wonderful returns by holding through these times and investing kathy woods says her goal is to return 15 compounded over the patented over the next five years to essentially double her money she might end up doubling her money over the next year because she is diamond handing and buying high quality high conviction stocks during a time when there was a lot of fear and as kathy woods says this is a gift to anyone averaging in very well so what does kathy wood specifically recommend that we invest in well of course transformative innovation she believes this is where we will see exponential growth for example in evs she expects ev sales to compound at 82 annually over the next five years which that is almost a doubling every single year over the next five years is what kathy wood's expectation is going forward she says look one of the issues that we have in the traditional investing model right now is that most analysts at maybe um by side institutions are too reliant on old school models too reliant on old school let's look at the price to book ratio let's look to at the price to earnings ratio and if it doesn't line up with our traditional measures of value we're not interested and we'll just go buy some att stock because we'll get a nice seven percent dividend over there kathy wood is right kathy wood realizes that a vast majority of wall street has no freaking clue how to value a company like tesla or in her opinion a company like a roku or even a square how do you value the fact that jack dorsey is selling his first tweet from 2006 as an nft and what if this is just the door opener to jack dorsey over who runs obviously not only twitter and found twitter but also helped not only not only run square but help found square and cash app how do we value the fact that this could be the beginning of cash app offering nfts and or or twitter now selling tweet nfts as a service what if you integrate nft purchasing into the freaking platform i mean the endless possibility of these innovative companies is the reason why kathy wood is investing in these and is the reason why when times are bad and times are red and painful kathy wood has essentially become groomed to say no no these are the times to buy in fact that is actually how kathy became popular in the first place kathy bought all of the under valued under appreciated high-growth names like the teslas in 2016 17 and 18 when it was hard when it was unpopular when she was hated for doing it and of course now kathy wood comes across as the hero after markets are very very green for a few years but the real effort was made when nobody wanted to be on her side and nobody wanted to buy during the red because people would rather uh no i'm gonna re-evaluate my options i'm just gonna i'm just gonna sell i'll just sell out a virgin galactic not to mention any names i'll just sell out a virgin galactic i'll go re-evaluate my opportunities because it's been a tough week anyway kathy wood goes on to say that she discloses her holdings every day as an actively traded etf because there are very few actively traded etfs she's right about this and that's part of the rules of the game but she does something special and also publishes her research and by publishing her research she actually believes look we put our research out there for criticism and commentary and that is how we are able to sort through the fud the fear uncertainty and doubt by seeing what society thinks we can help adjust sort of our research and our formulas and our expectations for companies and see okay is there sort of a black hole in our research so in a crazy way by kathy wood putting her research out she's actually improving the performance of her fund just by being open to commentary now i have to say it is weird though that their youtube channel doesn't allow comments but hey we can still get insights from what it is that she says and obviously twitter is still available as an opportunity to interact uh with archives but anyway another issue that kathy what talks about in her latest talk is how analysts are really stuck to comparing themselves to what the index funds are doing what's the s p 500 doing as long as we can beat the s p 500 we're good kathy wood doesn't care about the indices kathy wood isn't fighting to try to be right for a year or 18 months or two years her goal is 20 years from now to be able to look back and go wow look we did invest where technology is right where technology ended up happening and we saw that coming and we invested at the early phase of the s curve and this is something that i thought was actually really powerful in the last discussion that she had and she says hey look here's the thing when it comes to investing in transformative industries and you're investing in an early part of the s curve realize that once you see 10 15 20 growth that is when you are investing at the early part of the s curve and well usually when we hear that unless we're super familiar with it it can be a little confusing so why don't i just quickly pull up the ipad here and let's just draw what she means so what kathy wood is talking about is when you invest early on and you start getting that 20 percent growth that 10 growth and you're starting to see that compounding growth that could just be the beginning of what it will eventually be this exponential growth and then this essing right so this is something that i've actually mentioned personally on this channel about tesla before is that i personally think tesla is very early on this exponential growth curve that that growth is still ahead and today short of saying that about tesla kathy essentially gave us this insight that the industry she's investing in right now especially the ev market she still thinks is early in the exponential curve you know we look at tesla stock and we're like come on it went from you know 2 000 to essentially or 200 to 2000 that's 10x then split uh a 5x or divided by 5 right in the stock split and then went back to 900 like how could you not sell and take profits on a tesla what's because why would you sell out of something that you were still so early in on the s curve we're just beginning the transformation kathy woods says this is this whole process of building wealth with these transformative companies gosh the transformation is just beginning with this kathy woods says golly how could you not invest in these transformative industries why would you go invest into companies that are dying into companies who are not transforming and adapting why would you invest and i'm filling these names and she didn't mention these right but essentially kathy was saying why would you go invest into traditional let's say automakers like a ford why would you invest into something uh like a movie theater why would you invest in retail and this is her words okay look i'm all for diamond handing on amc but these are her opinions she's why would you invest in these potentially dying industries she says look you think the retail it can't get any worse for retail after going through what happened with coven she essentially laughs at that idea and says you haven't even seen the start of it yet the fact that we've only transitioned to about 20 percent of sales online sure we 4x the amount of growth in online thanks to covit but the fact that we're still only 20 of sales being online online has a whole lot of disruption ahead of it she didn't mention names here but obviously we can fill in we know that is good for the apple the etsy the wayfarer the amazon we know that's good for these platforms she invests in square we know that's also good for square because what does square do it helps move businesses online with their omnichannel distribution network or not just their distribution network but their distribution platform for getting channels to have the same inventory management system offline as they do online so it becomes much easier to scale online and get retail online finally obviously shopify does a lot of this as well some who already have stores prefer square and the transition for uh going from store to online or having both with square but either way both great companies kathy wood makes it very clear that if you're investing in arc funds you're getting innovation and transformation you're not getting the stuff that might be sexy for a brief period of time like oh yeah there's a rotation into value you're getting something that will go through periods of i don't want to invest in tesla right now it seems too overvalued you're going to go through those periods but you're investing something that in 10 years from now you can look back and say hmm yeah got in that s curve early just like kathy said i have to agree with everything she's outlined now i don't necessarily agree with every single stock pick that kathy wood makes it's one of the reasons i personally don't invest in arc but i could never say anything bad about what kathy's doing because what she's doing is exactly what i believe i think it's great and i'm not saying i'm copying her she's copying me we can all have our own opinion about this and pick different stocks and different allocations hey you want to copy what kathy wood does with your own tweaks or what i do with your own tweaks gee go to like m1 finance go to medkevin.com m1 sign up for m1 finance you can make your own pie your own sort of little mini etf if you will and and do it yourself it's there are so many options for you to invest in sort of a pie or or you know a portfolio of stocks yourself in an automated way but what else does kathy tell us well she tells us look there is a lot of fear uncertainty and doubt regarding evaluations right now but when it comes to asking if we're in a bubble kathy woods says absolutely not she doesn't believe that we're in a bubble she thinks bubbles are actually backwards looking that all we're really doing is or what some people are doing is they're saying well tech and ev must be in a bubble because the prices are so high and look at the run-up we saw before the dot-com era well that was a bubble so why isn't this a bubble she says this is the problem with looking backwards is when you look backwards all you see is a chart going up and assume that that means it must be a bubble when kathy wood says look the dot com era was early 25 years too soon but we are now in prime time the plants she says are now flourishing the plants that were planted then the seeds then are now flourishing and then now is the time where we take technology into reality and into prime time of making attendees basically we're at that that s curve phase of just beginning and this is really really good news for disruptive innovation when kathy talks about the fed she talks about how look we're going to see that cpi bump to three to four percent that temporary base effect interest or you know inflation data that we've been talking about on this channel we're going to see that but it's going to be temporary now what's interesting is kathy wood still maintains that she thinks there's a good chance the federal reserve could raise interest rates sooner than the fed believes but kathy wood believes that in the long term we're not going to see hyperinflation we're not going to see anything higher than maybe a four percent interest rate in the future even that personally i think is pretty high i think the fed's likely to stay around uh you know fed discount rate of maybe two and a half percent we can differ there but the reason she gives for inflation being temporary is fascinating and she's talked about this before but it's worth reiterating it's worth noting that she believes there are two types of deflation one is deflation that comes from technology hey the easier it becomes to manufacture iphones the cheaper iphones can become and better technology somebody can get in their hands for the same cost of dollars that they spend you know five hundred dollars spent on an iphone 10 years ago gets you way crappier technology than five hundred dollars spent on an iphone today that is a form of deflation but there's also and that's a good form of deflation because we get better stuff for less but she also reiterates that there's a bad form of deflation and that's when you get legacy companies like ford having to cut prices in the future because they fail to innovate they failed to keep up with the disruptive curves that we are seeing today and she thinks there's going to be a lot of confusion she thinks one of the reasons we see such low earnings multiples and some of the legacy companies whether they're retail or companies that just aren't innovating is because there's confusion she thinks a lot of people look at a stock and say oh well tesla must be overvalued because the price to earnings ratio is so high and oh another company must be a good deal because the price to earnings ratio is so low and she says this is going to lead to a crisis essentially we're going to see bankruptcies at some of the original the og companies potentially the fords the gm the movie theaters of the retail and all of these high valuations that we look at now it's like oh my gosh you know 200 300 p e ratio that in the future might have a 50 times earnings multiple but they'll actually be printing money because they are on the right side of change now kathy does briefly talk about how in her opinion stimulus passing is going to lead to higher taxes in either the form of higher inflation or future taxes which is something that joe biden is potentially more likely to do she says but ultimately she challenges investors are you on the right side of change are you on the right side of history now what i want to do is just briefly pull up m1 finance and just look at some of my mo more high conviction stocks and see are these in my opinion obviously i'm opining about my own choices here on the right side of change and so for example my top 10 are stocks like etsy tesla enface expi peloton pinterest lemonade neo redfin and cciv lucid personally to me none of these are legacy companies none of these in my opinion are failing to innovate some of them might be trading at rich valuations and even i personally i bag on peloton and lemonade for being too expensive right now i bag on etsy for being too expensive when it's over 225 i get upset when neo is in the 60 price range it's obviously much cheaper right now and this is where we have to look at what kathy says and go damn all of those have just had a massive sell-off that's an opportunity we like to say christ attunity is another option when i do go out to for example my top 60 stocks we get a little bit more of some of the legacy companies i do put in you know my wayfarer my shopify etsy pinterest lemonade shift technology tattoo chef chipotle these are some great ones i do have a couple legacy companies for example if i go to safer tech and consumer you can see these by the way go to medkevin.com 1337 for example under say for tech and consumer i have some legacy companies i've got you know maybe five six uh percent in total allocated to stocks like target lows home depot walmart but personally i don't think those are the companies she's so worried about uh you know disappearing i think she's more referring to mostly the legacy automakers i don't think she's very excited about those uh but look kathy what does look at these sorts of stocks even she even looks at apple and says apple might be a little bit more of a cash play it's interesting maybe she's taking a little bit of a blunt point of view but you have to say when it comes to innovation she is all in on the frontier of that i'm skeptical of some of the choices especially in bio and maybe that's just me not being educated enough so we'll do some more research there we'll see how things develop but look if you need any motivation to say hey let's double down let's be on the right side of change and let's invest when things are cheap just listen to kathy she posted her latest video which you can watch i obviously gave you a little synthesis or a summary here along with my commentar