저자: Moriguchi · 외국인
요약 보기
닛케이 선물이 1,500~1,800엔 급락하며 직전 저점(62,726엔) 이탈 위험을 경고. 미국 증시는 상승 출발 후 하락 전환, 지수 대부분 음전. 국채 장기금리 5.084%, 유가 $100 상회, VIX 20 돌파. 코어위브(CoreWeave) 신용 우려와 AI 투자 불안이 마이크론·AMD 매도 압력으로 이어짐. 나스닥·S&P500·러셀2000·반도체지수 일목균형표 기준 지지선 이탈, 하락 추세 우려 제기.
다듬은 글
Saturday, October 17th. Here is the topic. We'll discuss the disappointing rebound followed by a significant drop in futures prices. Yesterday, the price fell by more than 3,300 yen, but it rebounded by about 800 yen yesterday. I was hoping it would recover a little more , and I wanted to say that there's still more to come, but Nikkei futures have been steadily declining, and are now down 1,665 yen .
I'd like to investigate the causes of this situation in the US stock market, so please stay tuned. Therefore, this channel updat every morning or at the target time . I will continue explaining . Please subscribe to our daily chart analysis channel, updated every morning at 7 AM . rebounded, rising by 898 yen.
While there were quite a few stocks that rose in price, considering that they had fallen by more than 3,000 yen the previous day, I do n't think it can be said that the recovery was particularly good. TOPIX is up a modest 1.67%, but its rate of increase is higher. Growth saw a solid rebound of 2.99% .
Looking at the top-performing AI stocks, many have rebounded, but there aren't many that have seen significant gains . On the other hand, Fujikura's stock price has fallen, so it doesn't seem like all AI stocks are rising . In the industry-specific rankings, only electricity and gas saw a decline, so it can be said that almost all sectors were up .
Let's check out some US stocks . As of 4:31 AM, all indices are in the negative. The Dow Jones Industrial Average started with a solid positive position but has since turned negative, resulting in a significant decline in the NASA Fang Plus Socks index. Regarding European stocks, we're seeing a number of indices showing small gains .
Looking at the heatmap by industry, it seems that half or more of the industries have indeed seen a decline, and there are many more industries that have seen a decline when looking at the Nastax sector by industry . Looking at the New York Dow Jones Industrial Average, it's roughly a 50/50 split, but the N Stack 100 shows a remarkably high proportion of red.
Also, with Puss down, companies like Microsoft, Alphabet, and MA Tesla are all down by more than 2% . Therefore, Nikkei futures ended up in the negative, down 15,004 yen . The buy price is 157 yen at 95,000 yen, and the number of bids has exceeded 20 for the first time in a while. This is 25% higher than the functionality.
Regarding long-term interest rates, they are at 5.084, and crude oil prices are also above $100. Regarding cryptocurrency assets, major currencies have also experienced significant declines of over 1% . Let's take a look . I'll discuss the reasons behind the concern that the market might fall sharply again immediately after a sharp decline followed by a rebound due to dissatisfaction .
First, as usual, I'll check the Nikkei newspaper higher was that expectations of interest rate hikes shifted, leading to a shift towards consumer-related stocks. Federal Reserve Chair Waugh had the opportunity to speak. He said it wasn't appropriate to comment at this point on what measures would be taken for the remainder of the year, and he gave the probability of a 0.25% interest rate hike at the October FOMC meeting, which has dropped considerably to about 15% .
Wouldn't you say it's even lower than before? However, the upward movement is being limited, and the problematic CoreWeave is now declining . Concerns surrounding AI investments have led to selling pressure on stocks like Micron and AMD , as well as some AI-related stocks such as Western Digital . Let's take a look at the economic indicators.
It was around lunchtime when the European Council President made a statement . The import price index was released at 9:30 PM , and it gives the impression that prices are on the rise again , but I don't really feel that this is having an impact . Rather, my strongest impression is that it just kept steadily declining throughout the trading session.
In that context, the fact that crude oil prices have exceeded $100 may also be a burden . I think people are definitely more conscious of the cost of living , and there's still a lingering sense of unease about the situation in the Middle East . Let's take a look at the trading machine rankings. Mike Technology is at the top of the list, with a significant drop of 4.91%.
Among the leading stocks, for example, Meta's 4.11% is quite large. In that context, the fact that Apple is a positive is very reassuring. This is the daily chart for Mike Icron Technologies, the top-traded stock by trading volume . The price has fallen by 5.84% , and although it managed to rebound at a key level yesterday , it has now returned to its lows .
Since we are positioned below the clouds, it seems that there is still considerable resistance from above . On the other hand, Apple, despite showing a strong performance, managed to maintain positive territory even while displaying a bearish candlestick pattern. This upward trend appears to be continuing , which is very encouraging for the US stock market right now .
This is a screenshot of the paid tool, Investing Pro. Regarding Apple, the FA Valu, which we often look at, is down 22.3%. FA Valu is like a target stock price in Investing Pro's 14 investment models, and its highest value is $303. The analyst's target stock price is $329, but the market range is $343, so the stock remains highly valued .
It might seem overpriced to some , but I think it shows just how much confidence Apple has in the stock market . However, one possible reason why the stock price is still falling is the existence of Coreweave . Trading volume hasn't been particularly high, but the stock fell 12.7% again today, and I think financial concerns are becoming very high.
Due to these credit concerns, the VIX index has risen above 20 . The last time we saw a reading above 20 was in June, so it's been about four months . If it's just temporary , then I hope they'll be back soon . Yeah. I wonder. I'm very interested to see how things will change here. Incidentally, the BISS index is known for its inverse correlation with indices such as the S&P 500 .
Rather than saying that stock prices will fall because the X index has risen, it actually indicates the volatility of stock options. So, when it looks like prices are going down, the volatility increases, and when people want to hedge their risk a bit, the X index tends to rise. And when that happens, I think there's a high probability that they will move inversely when viewed relatively .
Well, conversely, I think it's more accurate to say that the price of Biggs went up because the volatility increased, so rather than looking at Biggs in advance, please understand that a high price of Biggs is a sign that there is a lot of anxiety at the moment . I looked at the latest information from Coreweave, and it's news about the dangers of the AI boom in stock count calculations .
It didn't feel like there was any ongoing news . This means we're factoring in the increased credit risk, with a more than 60% probability of default within the next five years . The reason for yesterday's rebound was that NVIDIA's CEO expressed optimism , but that alone is not enough to support the stock price .
And the S&P 500 fell by more than 1%. Yesterday, I was hoping to feel some kind of support from the clouds at the key line, but in today's battle against the shadows, I ended up breaking through the support from both the clouds and the baseline . It can only be said that concerns about further declines have intensified .
Nastack has also broken through the clouds. Here too, concerns outweighed the support from the cloud, resulting in simultaneous selling as the ground span fell below the stock price . The chart is on a downward spiral, so the next thing we need to consider is the risk if the Ichimoku Cloud breaks through .
The Socks Index has already broken through the clouds. In the worst-case scenario, a reversal hasn't occurred yet, as the conversion line and base line haven't crossed , but we can assume that the risk of resistance from the cloud is increasing. Under these circumstances, Nikkei futures are likely to see a significant decline.
The time I spent earned me 1529 yen. This fluctuates over time, so we will check the current futures price later . Here is the ranking of trading volume from yesterday . It rebounded yesterday, didn't it? While stocks were generally rising due to the AI reaction , I got the feeling that for many stocks, it was just about what I expected .
Advantest, in particular, is a stock with relatively light supply and demand and high expectations, but it was very disappointing that it only recovered 0.55% after falling by about 14% . Today, I'd like to take another look at memory and visual field . Despite yesterday's 3.84% rise, the situation remains very bad .
Furthermore, the situation with low hourly wages continues, and as a result of the massive increase in credit manipulation during this recent decline , the credit ratio has risen to 1.54 times. Yesterday, credit restructuring was down significantly, but with a 3.84% increase, let's take a look at the latest data on the Matsui app to see how things have changed .
yes. Uh, I displayed the Memory Screen screen using the Matsui First App. Well, if you use the initial ticket app, it only shows up to the 15th, but I think it's really great that you can see the tickets for the 16th, that is, the tickets for today, so please check the URL in the description if you're interested.
So, it went up yesterday, but when it goes up, there might be a strong tendency for credit manipulation to decrease. This marks the second consecutive business day of decline, and if we only consider the amount of credit manipulation, it's possible that the burden on recipients has lessened somewhat .
However, the reduction in credit manipulation is not that significant , so the situation of heavy demand will continue. In the midst of this, there is technical resistance above, so even if there is some recovery, it is likely that the market will continue to be pushed back . If they're going to break through that barrier, I think it'll be during the earnings announcement, so it looks like they'll need a little more time.
Among them, what I thought was amazing yesterday was the AI-utilizing stock, Monofuku Seimei 2. While AI stocks are currently experiencing significant uncertainty and declines, and with earnings announcements coinciding , the stock prices of companies like BayCurrent and Shift were bought up to the upper limit of their daily price range, reaching the stop- high level.
Previously, when AI stocks were soaring, they were heavily sold off and nicknamed "Saas C," but now they have solid performance and are actually gaining renewed appreciation as stocks that utilize AI to achieve results. Currently, AI stocks and stocks expected to experience a backlash are being sold off, which is precisely why it might be interesting to pay attention to these kinds of stocks as well .
However, if the overall stock market collapses, these kinds of stocks will likely become less likely to rise, so let's keep that in mind . If the Nikkei 225 index were to fall by around 1,500 yen and enter the 63,000 yen range, it would likely start trading below the 60,492 yen mark reached the previous day .
That would mean the next lowest price , which is 62,726 yen on an intraday basis. If it falls below that level, we have to consider the possibility that this rise was a false breakout or that it has entered a downward trend, so please be sure to remember this level . Here's a summary of today's video .
US stocks fell, but turned negative after an upward start . The European Council President's remarks did reduce the probability of an interest rate hike, but it didn't hold up . The reason is the rise in crude oil prices. This is likely due to heightened awareness of the uncertainty surrounding the situation in Iran and persistent and significant concerns about Coreweave's finances .
The VIX index was above 20 for the first time in quite a while . I do feel like it's a bit dangerous . Nikkei futures have fallen by more than 1500 yen, and are in danger of breaking below their recent low again . It seems that stocks with heavy supply and demand are seeing continued stop-loss selling and panic selling .
Given the increasing prevalence of AI utilization , please take another look at this topic . The most recent low is 62,726 yen . If the price breaks below this level during trading hours, it will inevitably force us to drastically change our view of the trend. Now let's look at the chart analysis of the index using the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and RSI on a daily chart .
Now let's check the closing value. I do n't think it looks that different . It looks like the drop rate is about the same as when I looked at it earlier . However, as time has advanced to 6:14, and futures prices have fallen to the 1800 yen range , I think the risks have increased . Now , let's start by examining the chart of the Nikkei Stock Average .
Although the Nikkei rose 898 yen yesterday , no signals have emerged . There are no signs of the price breaking above the cloud, above the moving average, or above the RSI 50. Instead, the market is showing signs of resistance at higher levels, and futures are currently down 1800 yen , so there is a very high possibility that the price will break below this low.
Let's take a look at the topics. Regarding the topics, there is one sign. I think it shows that there's a powerful part of you that managed to overcome the resistance that should have been there, even though you were below the clouds and then came into the clouds themselves. I'll be watching closely on Monday to see how long the Nikkei average can hold its position amidst a significant decline .
The Growth 250 index also emerged from within the cloud, crossing over it. I'll be watching closely to see how growth stocks and small-cap stocks move, paying attention to whether the Ichimoku Cloud provides support. However, the distance between them is quite close, so I get the impression that it might be a bit difficult .
Let's take a look at the New York group . Today, the price continued to reach new highs within this trend during intraday trading. We've also seen a positive shift in the forward-level competition, so I think the optimism on the Dow Jones Industrial Average is still going strong, and today we managed to get back to a bottoming-out situation.
However, the S&P 500 chart appears to be on the verge of a major collapse . The price formed a bearish candlestick and broke below the upper limit of the cloud and the baseline . Furthermore, when comparing based on closing prices, the ground span and stock price are in a rather questionable position.
It looks like the sell signals are overlapping a bit. We've finally broken through the clouds regarding stacks. The ground-level span has fallen below the stock price. We are seeing two worsening sell signals, or rather, indicators on the chart, so I think we should stop being cautious about the price falling below the Ichimoku Cloud .
Therefore, a drop below the clouds would mean it would fall below this range, which would likely raise concerns about a potential market top . Regarding the Russell 2000, it hit a new low again in the same trend as yesterday's key support line. The fact that the Dow is showing some signs of recovery while Russell continues to decline is also quite concerning.
Let's take a look at some socks . Socks hit a new low within this trend . It appears that the stock is significantly oversold . Furthermore, the price is quite close to its recent low, so if it drops another level, there is a possibility that it will fall sharply again . Let's keep a close eye on things next week as well .
yes. So, with futures falling sharply today, I've significantly increased my bias towards crude oil prices by $100 and coreveve . There may be other materials involved, but let's take a look at the groupings while keeping this heightened sense of caution . thank you. Now, let me thank you again for the information today .
This is a magazine that analyzes individual stocks, and this week we did an analysis of Fast Retailing's earnings report . Well, I'd be happy if the stocks that have been hit by a decline could recover once their earnings reports come out, but considering that Fastly has relatively good performance among the companies that have already announced their earnings, and its stock price is also firm, I think it's worth keeping an eye on .
I post an analysis article once a week on my notebook, so please check it out via the URL in the description box if you're interested . thank you. target time at 7 AM in this format .
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