저자: 모리구치 · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 관련 주식이 올라도 시장 전체를 교란할 수 있다는 문제의식을 제기. 메타의 AI 게임 제작 도구 발표로 메타는 상승했지만 지수 전반은 약세이고 하락 종목이 많음. 미국채 장기금리 5.15% 부근으로 상승세가 이어져 금융주·은행주와 토픽스에 부담. 엔화는 158엔대로 약세, 일본은행 개입 가능성 주시. 이비덴은 공급 개선·엔비디아 CEO 언급 등으로 강세 흐름이며 밸류 부담은 존재. 나스닥은 플러스, S&P500·다우·러셀은 약세, 필라델피아 반도체지수는 일목균형표 구름대 안에서 저항 우려.
다듬은 글
Yes, we do. Friday, September 25th, and here's the question. I'll be discussing how AI stocks, even if they rise, could disrupt the market . Well, this isn't limited to this particular case , but I think it's something that should be given renewed attention . Meta is once again the top-selling index today, but the index as a whole is n't particularly strong, and there are actually many stocks that are falling .
The same applies to Japanese stocks, so I would appreciate it if you could check the current situation . Therefore, this channel aims to provide , updated regularly. . Gentle and confident channel. Let's get right into the content. First, yesterday's Nikkei Gold price was up 495 yen . I think quite a few people were surprised, but the 1 AM futures were showing a gain of about 2000 yen, so I thought we could expect a four-digit increase after the long weekend.
But it seems like it was even lower than half of what I expected . There are many declining stocks, the TOPIX has turned negative, and growth stocks have also closed in negative territory . Looking at the top-ranking solutions, there's a whole bunch of stocks that are showing a reaction to the previous trend, but there are also some that are down on the right side, and among them, Recruit's decline seemed particularly noticeable .
Because Recruit is down, the service industry is down, and because the reaction stocks are rising, precision machinery and electrical machinery are up. I also noticed that VALU stocks and bank stocks are down despite interest rates rising, which is something I found interesting . Let's take a look at US stocks .
As of 4:32 AM, all three indices were in the negative. It's not a huge negative, but I still have that lingering feeling of "yeah." European stocks have mostly been in the red. Looking at the heatmap by industry, the proportion of negative values is indeed higher. Looking at the areas that are rising, communication is at the top, so NASA should also be in the positive, but while medals are strong, red still has a higher proportion.
Well, there are indeed some stocks that have fallen significantly . Nikkei 225 futures are up 323 yen. Considering that it didn't rise as much as I expected yesterday, it's still in the positive, so please check the chart later to confirm its position . The decline in the river continues, and caution remains regarding intervention at 158 yen .
The PIX is at 15.56, and interest rates seem to be rising overall . Crude oil prices are also rising. Gold futures are currently in negative territory. Cryptocurrency prices are currently trading in positive territory this morning . Let's take a look . I'll be discussing why the index hasn't risen despite Meta's strength since the announcement of Agent AI .
First, as usual, let's look at the day low was that high interest rates were being used as an excuse . Long-term interest rates rose again today, currently at 5.15, but had climbed to 5.187 after hitting a key support/resistance level. Regarding interest rates, rather than being a positive factor, I think the fact that they are continuing their upward trend and that interest rates are rising globally are also having an impact.
Oh, the crude oil market is also up today. The price is around $94 per barrel , but there has been no progress in negotiations to end the fighting in Iran . Let's take a look at the economic markets . What I was paying attention to was the number of new home sales. I was concerned that rising interest rates might increase the burden of mortgage payments and potentially lead to a decline in new home construction, but it has actually exceeded expectations .
The upward revision may alleviate concerns, but it could also lead to the assumption that concerns about interest rate hikes will increase. I think that might have been one of the reasons why interest rates tended to rise . There was a moment when the price rose sharply just after 1 AM . Looking at the news around 1 PM , for example, it says that the Treasury Secretary and another party have agreed to extend the US-China trade halt for another two months.
However, since the announcement time was 1:05 AM and the price rose sharply after 1:05 AM, I got the impression that this might be it. Another piece of news to mention is that the US and Iran are exploring a phased agreement that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The reaction wasn't that big, so I'm guessing it's something like this.
However, the continued rise in interest rates is keeping stock prices down, and one piece of news regarding the factors contributing to the rising interest rates is that the US Treasury bond market is falling below expectations, despite the US Treasury Department's hopes to expand its long-term bond buyback program .
This is what's known as a buyback, and it was intended to slightly curb the rise in long-term interest rates, but since it fell short of expectations, I think it means that interest rates are continuing to rise. Furthermore, concerns about interest rate hikes are increasing, which has led to a rise in short-term gains , and it is said that the dollar curve is currently flattening .
The yield curve is a curve drawn by connecting points representing international yield rates for different institutions. The color red represents one month ago, and the color purple represents the present. A month ago, we could see that the distance from 2 years to 10 years was steadily increasing, but now, as of yesterday evening, the 2-year anniversary has risen sharply, making the gap between it and the 10-year anniversary much narrower and flatter.
This is particularly noticeable in financial stocks, which are generally said to see their stock prices rise as interest rates increase. However, because the flattening of the yield curve means that the difference between borrowing short-term and lending long-term will affect their performance, this flattening of the yield curve can be somewhat negative for financial stocks in terms of their performance .
Well, that's one reason why bank stocks tend to decline and the TOPIX index tends to fall, so I hope you'll keep an eye on it going forward. Let's take a look at the rankings by trading volume in the United States . Meta is back in the lead today. The stock price has risen steadily by 4.45% . Meta's cooling chart.
I used this for the thumbnail as well, and it's very powerful. While not a market record high, it clearly surpassed its recent high, representing a 4.46% increase. Although there is a sense of heat, the upward trend seems likely to continue . The reason for today's rise was that Meta announced an AI game creation tool , and the title of today's discussion is that I think there are concerns in both America and Japan that if Meta's AI becomes too powerful and disrupts the market, it will inevitably break other systems .
Here, Meta announces two game creation tools, which I think will make it easy for anyone to create games without coding, but this will cause a decline in the number of game development companies . The point is that while AI is making things more convenient, there are things that are being sacrificed, which is why the number of declining stocks is increasing and the index isn't rising much .
As for NASA, the index is right on the borderline between positive and negative. I was hoping that we would gain some momentum and start to rise, but it doesn't really feel like we have that momentum yet . Conversely, concerns are growing for indices like the Dow and Russell . Today the key line extended downwards, so I do n't feel like it's fallen drastically, but I still can't make it into the black.
I've been stuck in this situation for a long time . The Socks Index is also negative, so it ended up staying within the cloud . So, I think we'll have to wait a bit longer for that feeling of it continuing to rise . I had the impression that Nikkei 225 futures were a little weak yesterday , but they are now back up to 36 yen.
The current level is 60,587 yen, but unfortunately, this level is not enough to reach the cloud. The price level of the cloud is such that it will rise sharply here today, and therefore it needs to break above 66,000 yen. Let's keep a close eye on how it moves today . Looking at yesterday's trading platform rankings , while some AI stocks showed solid gains due to the holiday period, others, like memory share, temporarily turned negative, giving the impression that the overall performance wasn't as strong as expected.
Among them, the one that stood out and was most dynamic was undoubtedly Ibi Den . The stock price rose 14.57% . There was also talk about Meta's AI, and the news reports about the NVIDIA CEO's statements were about materials science. The NDIA CEO said, "We have no choice but to rely on Lee Mi-chuan ." So, the statement essentially said, "Please do your best, I'm counting on you ." I think this statement suggests a very good relationship, so I feel that NVIDIA will continue to support the work on the Ivide Gospel .
Looking at the chart, there was a period of slight dips, but it has now firmly surpassed the recent high , so I think it's in a position to aim for new highs . However, since the PR is high at 75 times, we need to carefully re-examine whether that level of growth will continue, and also, checking how supply and demand have changed will provide clues about the upward trend.
Let's start by confirming this. yes. Uh, I've displayed the screen for using the Matsui First-Time App . The Matsui Initial App is convenient because it allows you to track daily pay and receipts and trades, so please check it out via the URL in the description if you're interested. Yesterday, the Ibid.
story rose 14.57% , and indeed, credit manipulation is decreasing. Profit-taking sales reduced the number of shares involved in short selling from 2.03 million last week to 1.5 million . Conversely, short selling due to the sudden situation has increased, with new short selling reaching 890,000 shares .
Currently, the credit ratio has fallen to around 1x, and the stock price has crossed a key level, so I think the supply and demand situation has become lighter, making it easier for prices to rise . Today, I want to see which will win, high PR or relatively speaking . And its presence in the EBA is by no means small; its total capitalization is large , and in terms of its performance on the Nikkei average, it's the second largest after Recruit.
Yesterday, one stock alone pushed the price up by 191 yen, so please keep a close eye on its future trend. So, I'll just explain it in words here , but Recruit's stock price fell sharply yesterday, which dragged down the Nikkei average . With the announcement of Meta's agent AIMUs, if agent AI that can easily compare and select the best travel plan, even making reservations, really becomes a reality in sectors like travel, then travel services like Recruit's JA may see their performance decline or even be pushed back.
In that sense, we need to take another look at the fact that some stocks are being heavily sold off . Well, there were many stocks that went down, and I think that might be one of the reasons why Topics fell . Furthermore, the fact that they are doing it is definitely noteworthy . The yen continued to weaken today, reaching 158 yen, or 89 points.
We were talking about what would happen if the rate exceeded a certain level . The yen is expected to continue depreciating further , and with rising US interest rates and a widening interest rate differential between Japan and the US, the Bank of Japan will have no choice but to act at this rate. I think it's necessary to keep a close eye on the situation and remain vigilant.
So, here's a summary of today's video. We continued to wait for the Bekab to weaken , and the Dow Russell remained weak . I believe that the continued high interest rates, along with the upward trend in new home sales, may have contributed to the rise in interest rates . While there was news suggesting a easing of tensions between the US and China, and with Iran, interest rates continued to rise, fueling concerns about further interest rate hikes .
I think we need to be cautious about the flattening of the market, so please keep a close eye on financial stocks . Well, the Sand P500 N stack was fluctuating between positive and negative . Among them, Meta stood out the most . The stock price is rising following the announcement of agent AI and the subsequent announcement of game development tools .
Even so, game stocks have been falling, and I think that could be a trigger for stocks like Recruit's to decline, so that's something to be careful about. Nikkei futures are slightly higher, but unfortunately, they are still below the Ichimoku Cloud level. Today, AI-related stocks may be the main focus again , and the supply and demand for Ibi-Den have also improved, so Ibi-Den is worth watching, but other stocks haven't risen as much.
And then there's the dollar-yen exchange rate. With the yen continuing to weaken and reaching the upper 158 yen range, I will be watching closely to see what the Bank of Japan will do, including any statements they might make . Now, let's take a look at the chart analysis using the 1-meter square line and RSI on a daily chart .
Let's conclude by reviewing the points. Ultimately, Nastack managed to maintain a positive position, while the S&P 500 ended up slightly in the red . So , the Dow Russell Sox have fallen . The daily futures rate is 179 yen . It gives the impression that we've moved even further away from the clouds .
Let's start by examining the chart for the Nikkei average . I'd like to consider this based on the Ichimoku Cloud and the base line, and regarding the value of the base line, it seems to be falling a little, so I think the current level of futures is around the base line, or just about to reach it. However, if we adjust the price to today's date, it comes out to 60,655 yen, so unfortunately it looks like it won't reach that level .
It has surpassed RS50, so I think it would be interesting to see if it can maintain that level. Let's take a look at the topics . Yesterday, the price fell by 0.39%, even falling below the baseline. Furthermore, it's now 50 points below the baseline, so if the Ichimoku Cloud breaks through, we should be wary of further declines .
Kroos 250: Yesterday's race was a battle where he grew out his beard. It hasn't reached the recent price, and I have the impression that the unpleasant slump has finally stopped, so today the question is whether it will rise or not, and whether that slump will be a turning point or not. Regarding New York, the decline was 0.31%, and although the lower shadow was long, the candlestick formed a bearish low, further reducing concerns about further declines.
Regarding Sand P500, it's down 0.02%. Although the key points were marked, it wasn't possible to reach the point of receiving a bonus ticket . For now, the reference point and cloud cover will serve as indicators of support, so let's focus on these. I also marked Nastack as a key point, and somehow managed to finish it in the black.
I think it's really just within the margin of error . I think it's stronger than the Dow or Russell just because it has key lines marked on it . I think there's some truth to the rises in reaction stocks and AI stocks, but looking at these three indices, I think we need to be cautious because there are also many stocks that are falling .
Russell's two-day downward trend is a very long key line, but it's still a heavy trading day and the lows have been broken, so it's probably best to view the chart as having deteriorated . Finally, let's look at the Socks Index . There was a stock that rose after a 333% drop, but it couldn't bring the price into positive territory.
It's currently stuck within the Ichimoku Cloud, so I think the chart suggests that the upper limit of the cloud might be acting as resistance. The cloud cover and the baseline are aligned. It seems we'll need to wait and see for a while whether it can maintain this level . yes. So today, the title of my talk was about how meta AI might be disrupting the market in some way, and how that's why the index's rise has been slow .
Given the high positive interest rates, the stock market is likely to remain sluggish. I will keep track of any changes in this area, so please join me again tomorrow. Now, let me give you an update today . The magazine that analyzes individual stocks this week is the analysis of this week's notes .
Here are six reasons why this notebook is experiencing rapid growth and is receiving high praise . This video was released this morning at 7 AM . If you're interested, please check out the URL for the notes in the description box . The monthly fee is 900 yen, but the first month is free using our membership feature .
There's a free section available, so please take a look . also be updating my water purification ritual in this format, aiming for 7 AM each day . and give it a thumbs up! Until next time, let's meet again with a technical analysis. Goodbye.
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