저자: 미상 · 외국인
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닛케이 평균이 전일 7만엔 돌파 후 종가 기준 7만엔 상회 여부가 관건이라 진단. 미국 나스닥 신고가, 반도체(TSMC·엔비디아) 강세가 닛케이에 긍정적. 금리 상승으로 경기민감주는 압박받는 중. 기술적으로 TOPIX는 박스권 상단 돌파 여부, 러셀2000·소형주 반전 시도 관찰. 공급 관점에서 신용잔고비율 하락·공매도 증가로 상승 지속 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
good morning. It's the mouth. uesday, October 6th, and the topic is this. Since this is the most Nastacks ever, let's talk about how today's amount will be 70,000 yen. Nastack continued its strong performance today, reaching new highs. This means that the Nikkei average briefly touched 70,000 yen during trading yesterday, and the key point to watch is whether it can surpass that level at the closing price.
Please wear it again today. Therefore, this channel provid, and is always updated with Mayashi Chiji targets. . Well, please subscribe to the "Gentle and Confident Daily Chart Analysis Channel." Let's get started by reviewing what happened yesterday . First, regarding the Nikkei average, it rose steadily by 1,637 yen yesterday .
The closing price was 69,946 yen , but it was higher than the morning high of 70,072 yen. Currently, the futures price is still above 70,000 yen , so let's keep an eye on whether this will continue into the closing price of the day . There are more stocks that are rising in price, and both Topics and Growth stocks are on the rise .
Looking at the top performers in the technical field, stocks related to physical therapy and AI generally seem to be performing well, but companies like Memory Engineer and Fujikura have been declining. Looking at the rankings by industry, it's not quite a 50/50 split, but rather there are more industries that are rising, with electrical machinery being the top performer and hand-related industries being particularly strong .
Let's take a look at US stocks . This is as of 4:35 AM. I got the impression that Nastack is definitely stronger than Down . But the socks aren't quite up to par . So, while the Nikkei is n't showing particularly strong gains, it's definitely in positive territory, which I think increases expectations for it to reach 70,000 yen.
Most European stock indices are also showing positive gains . Looking at the heatmap by industry , we see a strong increase in communications-related information today . The only sectors experiencing declines are real estate and transportation . Looking at the heatmap of 100, the proportion of green is high, but when we look at the number of reaction stocks, there are more that are decreasing.
If we advance the Nikkei futures time, it will reach 70,041 yen, right on the edge . Kawase's 94000 IX at 157 yen saw a rise in long-term interest rates of 15.61 and 5.306 . Well, today crude oil fell below $90, while gold futures rose. Regarding cryptocurrencies, I think that most of them are rising in value.
Let's take a look . NAST has reached a new all-time high. Let's talk about how the Nikkei average will surpass 70,000 yen by the end of the day. First, as always, let's check Dao started lower is mainly because of rising interest rates affecting cyclical stocks, but interest rates have risen today. There were reports of a rise in the bond market on the 5th , due to factors such as increased fiscal concerns in France and Spain's three chief ministers announcing plans for a general election .
Of all the European indicators we looked at earlier, only France showed a negative result, right? This week in the US, there are international tenders for 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year contracts, and there are concerns about a potential loosening of supply and demand . The crude oil market is calm. In addition to European countries deciding to release oil from their reserves in a coordinated manner, the recovery in crude oil exports from the Middle East and the reduction in crude oil selling prices to Saudi Arabia also triggered the selling .
Based on these factors, FAD Watch has lowered its forecast for interest rate hikes , but even so, interest rates continue to rise. As usual, let's look at the charts for crude oil and long-term interest rates . Crude oil initially fell 2.41% to below $90. I don't think we've yet entered a phase where we're clearly processing the material .
These are long-term interest rates. The key line has been drawn, and today too, the impression is that it is on an upward trend . Since RS is still above 70 , we can't say that the rise has stopped yet . Individually, Meta and SpaceX were said to have high performance. It has been reported that TSMC is in discussions to participate in Elon Musk's AI development project, in which Intel is also said to be involved .
Let's take a look at the economic indicators . In the United States, the PMI or ISM Non-Manufacturing Index was released. As you can see, the results are in line with the predictions, with almost no discrepancies. I don't think this was the trigger for any surprises, but it may have been the catalyst for the rise .
Let's take a look at the trading machine rankings. NVIDIA is at the top, followed by SpaceX in second place , but the company that I personally wanted to take a look at on the chart was TSMC . Yesterday, the market had already reached a new record high , but today it continued its upward trend, once again significantly exceeding that previous record.
TSMC is also included in the US market. It's also included in the Socks Index. This stock also has an impact during Asian trading hours and is closely related to Japanese stocks that experience a rebound . The fact that it has now crossed the positive 2σ of the Bollinger Bands and the RSI above 70, indicating a very strong upward trend, is likely to be positive for both the Japanese market and the US Socks Index.
Regarding the Tarasocks Index, it's a positive 0.27%, which I think is quite good, but compared to the rate of increase, I got the impression that it's a little underwhelming . As we saw in the heat map earlier, major stocks like NVIA and Broadcom are rising, but Micro Advance Microdevices and ASMLinel Research are falling, so the rate of increase is limited .
Nevertheless, the N stack was clearly tested with a rise of more than 1%, and has now surpassed its previous high . This looks like a very good chart . As a result, Nikkei 225 futures were also showing positive figures, and it seemed that if they were even slightly in the positive range at the end of yesterday, they would likely exceed 70,000 yen .
However, as of 5:14 AM, the current Nikkei 225 CFD futures are at 70,006 yen . The highest price was 70,190 yen, but what do you think? Will it be able to surpass that during trading hours today? And importantly, since it was already above 70,000 yen yesterday, I think the key point to watch will be whether the closing price will exceed 70,000 yen .
Here are the trading machine rankings from yesterday. I have the impression that the trading volume of those with memories is gradually decreasing , and among them, only those with memories are in the negative. On the other hand, trading volume for Advantest has been steadily increasing, rising 4.32% yesterday, setting a new record high .
While there is a noticeable level of overheating , the initial credit ratio is low, and we will also be conducting a supply and demand analysis today. First of all, the margin trading ratio that can be viewed on Kabuta has recently become available not only by time but also by date and time , and it seems that the margin trading ratio displayed here is the latest data for the date and time .
The most recent data displayed for this period is from October 2nd, which shows a multiplier of 0.91. Matsui: Let's use the app to check yesterday's data as well . Yes, the Matsui First Impression app has been displayed. I still recommend the Matsui app because it provides faster updates . If you're interested, the URL is in the description box.
Yesterday, the gains remained strong at 4.32%, with a decrease in credit manipulation and an increase in short selling . While the amount of short selling has reached a fairly high level, it far exceeds the amount of credit manipulation . The credit ratio, which was 0.91 times, may have fallen to around 0.81 times, making it easier for funds to be received and for short covering to occur .
While there is a growing sense of overvaluation and overheating , the supply and demand trend suggests that the upward trend may continue. Advantest continues to rise, and NVIDIA also rose yesterday, which means that the impact on the Nikkei average is indeed very significant. However, the after-hours trading price has fallen slightly, so let's take a cautious look at it today .
So, while the stock market is currently rising and the NT ratio is expanding rapidly , when looking at the Japanese market as a whole, I think it's best to check the TOPIX index. It doesn't feel like it's significantly exceeded the expected range yet . The closing price has now surpassed the recent high, which was just a small period of consolidation around this level .
It hasn't surpassed plus 2 sigma, and it has n't entered a perfect uptrend yet , but if there's another upward movement, that possibility will emerge, so let's keep an eye on that as well . So, here's a summary of today's video. Despite a rise in the Bay Up market and a shift in interest rate hike expectations, interest rates continued to rise, resulting in a situation where cyclical stocks faced resistance at higher levels .
Well, amidst all that, major stocks are rising, and NSA is also rising. TSMC announced that it is considering participating in the AI factory triangle led by Elon Musk . TSMC has once again broken its record for the longest-lasting production cycle, and I believe this will have a significant impact on the Japanese market as well , so it cannot be ignored .
However, among them, Socks has only seen a small increase , and looking at hand stocks as a whole, there have been no significant rises, and some stocks have even been negative, so we will look at those separately as well . NST has significantly surpassed its previous market high . This would suggest a positive effect on Nikkei 225 futures, but they are currently just slightly above 70,000 yen .
We still don't know what will happen during the day . Advantest and the highest hourly wage have both become easier to achieve. I'd like to see Advantest rise again today, but what do you think ? The after-hours trading was slightly down. The TOPIX is currently trading within a range, but if it breaks out upwards, I think things could get interesting .
Now let's look at the index chart analysis using Bollinger Bands + RSI . Let's go over the last points . The Dow is down 0.18% and N-Stack is down 1.05%. It appears the rate of increase ended up being slightly smaller than what was displayed earlier . So, the Southeast Asian and Nikkei futures are currently at 70,042 yen.
Let's keep an eye on whether it can start at over 70,000 yen, maintain that level throughout the day, and then surpass it by the end of the day . Now, let's check the chat using the Nikkei Gold stock price . The price rose by 1637 yen, exceeding the positive 2σ of the Bollinger Bands on Thursday. Band Harbor went down on Friday but held on and has surpassed it again today.
I think it's fair to say that Band Walk is continuing to expand . This means it looks like it will exceed 70,000 yen, and since the RSI hasn't even exceeded 70 yet, there's no sign of overheating, but how high will it go? I think we need to be extremely cautious about such a rapid rise, but we will make sure to thoroughly check the current situation .
Let's take a look at the topics. The TOPIX chart looks quite different from the Nikkei average, doesn't it? In that sense, I think it's best to calmly consider which side is right. This is the recent high. The price has now surpassed the previous highs in this area. So, the important point is whether it will break above these highs, and also whether it will take on a similar shape to the 2nd meridian, with the Bollinger Bands showing a further increase in the positive 2σ and expanding the band width .
Growth 250. We also established a strong defensive line. Considering this point as the starting point, the price did not close at the low but instead surpassed the high again on a closing price basis. If it starts to exceed the +2σ baseline during trading hours, then I think it will feel like this adjustment was truly just an adjustment .
Let's take a look at the New York Dow Jones Industrial Average . A 0.18% increase . The fact that I've added a key line for the first time in a while, and that the lower shadow is long , are things I can somewhat appreciate, but there's still no chart improvement . I think the current trend is one where the fear of further price declines is stronger .
Wow , the Sandwich P500 has formed a key support line and broken through the highs around here. It has surpassed the previous high even on a regular trading basis, so all that remains is for it to reach its highest market price . I think this chart has changed for the better . Regarding Nastack, I also gave it a strong rating, and it's clear that it definitely exceeded the expectations of those who test drove it .
It hasn't quite reached the Bollinger Band plus 2 sigma yet, but the bandwidth is expanding, and there's an upward trend, so I think it's a good development. Let's take a look at Lassell 2000. The critical line remained in place for three days . If the signal breaks above the mid-band, you'll get a much stronger sense that the tide has turned.
Given that the RSI has risen after falling below 30 once , I think it's safe to say that we've reached a stage where it's attempting a reversal . This is the Socks Index. The price rose by 0.27% , and the key candlestick with a long lower shadow has surpassed the previous day's closing price . The bandwidth has expanded somewhat, but it's not so much a strong upward trend as it is more like the price is just continuing to rise somehow .
It's not that the market is overheating, but I think it's worth paying attention to the differences in the stocks that are declining in value today. yes. So, today, I think the most important point will be whether the Nikkei average can stay above the 70,000 yen level . If the price continues to struggle to reach 70,000 yen, it could easily drop sharply with even a little bad news.
However, if it stays above 70,000 yen, that level will likely become a key support level, so whether it stays above that level is very important . Let's make sure to check it carefully again tomorrow . Now, let me share some news with you today . I analyze individual stocks in a magazine that is updated every Friday, and I post articles about specific stocks in my notes.
Last week, we opened an article about autumn kippers. Akipa is still a small company , but I think this kind of business model is interesting . I think you'll find the article very easy to understand and it clearly shows the company's strengths, so please do take a look . So, that's how we'll wrap things up target time at 7 AM in this manner from tomorrow onwards . If you'd like to listen in the mornings as wel . .
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