저자: 모리구치 · 외국인
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10/1 미국장·일본장 점검. PCE 물가가 예상보다 낮아 10월 금리인상 확률이 하락(50%→약 35%)하며 기술주 상승, 다우는 장중 하락 마감. 장기금리는 5.298%로 상승해 주가를 압박. 마이크론 실적은 시간외 기대치 상회·가이던스 긍정이나 시간외 반응은 미미. 니케이 선물 67,000엔 부근, 나스닥 상대적 강세, S&P500·러셀2000은 약세. 일본 개별주는 소비 부진 우려로 신중 필요.
다듬은 글
hursday, October 1st. Here is the topic . Let's talk about the fateful earnings report from the world's number one trading volume company . Today is Micron Technology's have already been released at the close of trading. With this as the title, I'd like to start by doing the usual thing about the performance of Japanese and US stocks, and then follow up on the details of Hiko Micro's earnings announcement .
thank you. Therefore , this channel always updates with , with a gentle goal in mind. . Please subscribe to our channel, which provides daily updates and analysis . rose by 1,272 yen yesterday. I felt they were stronger than I expected . This is because all major US stock indices closed lower the previous day.
Regarding the Socks Index, I never thought it would strengthen this much, rising to around 1%, and there are a lot of rising stocks in Japan. On the surface, it seems that reaction stocks make up the majority, and when you look at it by sector, all sectors are up . Since banks and other institutions were also strong, I think many people felt that they were stronger than expected .
I'll be checking out US stocks. This is as of 4:10 AM . The Dow Jones Industrial Average is falling again today . Russell's stock price is falling. Everything else is on the rise, right? Many European stock indices are in the negative. Looking at the damage map by industry, it seems like there are actually more red areas .
Also, the high proportion of red in the New York Dow Jones Industrial Average clearly shows that it collapsed during the day, as can be seen from this chart. On the other hand, I have the impression that high-tech related industries maintain a positive atmosphere and are generally green . Nikkei futures have risen by approximately 300 yen, exceeding 67,000 yen.
Regarding the dollar-yen exchange rate, the 36,000 VI at 157 yen was 16.05, almost double the previous rate. Long-term interest rates have actually risen, reaching 5.298 . Crude oil prices also rose to the $90 range. Gold futures are slightly down. Cryptocurrency markets this morning are showing mixed performance, with highs and lows .
Let's take a look . Confirmation of the same trend in Japanese and US stocks. After the market closes, we'll be looking at Micro's movements outside of its earnings announcement time . First, as usual, here's the Nikkei newspaper after the US stock market opened . The reason the Dow started the day strong was that expectations of an interest rate hike in October were considered insignificant .
The PCE price index for August was released today . The August figures are being released in October, so it feels a bit behind schedule, but this has led to a shift in expectations regarding interest rate hikes . The PC price index rose below the expected 3.4% increase compared to the same month last year.
According to FAD Watch, the probability of an interest rate hike in October has decreased from 50% the previous day . The ADP employment report showed an increase of 90,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations, but I don't think this increased concerns about interest rate hikes . Looking at the PC deflater in more detail, it was down 3.4%, and the core was also 3.3%, which is what I'm watching, but during the time I was watching, the expectation for an interest rate hike was 34.9%.
Yesterday, the probability of an interest rate hike was 50.9%, which is more than half, but today you can clearly see that the probability of an interest rate hike has decreased . However, looking at the movements during the day, when the announcement I mentioned on my PC was made , and when the probability of an interest rate hike decreased, stock prices rose .
After that, NASA and others managed to maintain their roots relatively well, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average collapsed sharply, didn't it? The reason is that although the rise in interest rates had temporarily subsided, the 2-year interest rate has risen sharply, and it's almost entirely a sell-off situation .
As we saw earlier, long-term interest rates are rising even more sharply today. As a result, I believe that rising interest rates suppressed stock prices, which led to the Dow Jones Industrial Average turning negative . This is a ranking based on trading volume. Micron was the top stock today, with a slight increase.
I think the prevailing attitude was one of waiting and seeing, given that it was right before the earnings announcement . The stock price is still high even before the earnings announcement, but the downward trend continues due to the bearish candlestick pattern. Looking at the current evaluation of MICRORO using the paid tool Investing PRO , the potential for upside is 21.8% even when looking at the FAval Ryu calculated from the 14 investment models .
Even looking at the median of the highest analyst price targets , it can be said that there is still room for further increases . Let's take a look at the details of this earnings announcement as the stock market closes . However, as I mentioned earlier, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a cause for concern.
Today, the price hit a new low and formed a bearish candlestick, indicating that the short-term downward trend is continuing. Looking at the Ichimoku Health Chart daily chart, there are no support or resistance levels at the bottom, so the uncertainty about the seed price is very strong. On the other hand, Nastack is very strong .
I suppose this is also a result of anticipation for Micro's earnings announcement . While other indices are showing bearish candlesticks, Nasstack is maintaining its key line and staying above the conversion line . While it has n't broken any new highs, it's fair to say it's maintaining a position close to its all-time high.
In contrast, the Nikkei average is showing positive gains in futures . Despite rising by 1,272 yen yesterday, the stock is still showing a positive trend, so a recovery to 67,000 yen is also expected . The trading platform rankings saw their first significant change in approximately eight months . That means the memory holder dropped out of the main group, and Advantest took the lead.
Today, I'd like to do a supply and demand analysis of Advantest . I don't think there's any particularly positive news for Advantest , but I think the focus has shifted to the fact that the trading price of memory holders hasn't increased . Regarding receiving Advantest's subsidy, well, I'll take a look at the app for the first time.
Yes, I displayed the Advantest screen using the Matsui Hatsumin app . Regarding the Matsui Hatsumin app, there is a URL in the description box, so please check it out if you're interested. Looking at yesterday's benefit payments, it seems that the number of fraudulent credit reports has decreased. Short selling is also decreasing.
Since the number of short sellers has decreased, I think the ratio has gone up a little, but it's still 1.76 times . A ratio of around 1 means that the supply and demand are very light, so I think that's why it easily attracted attention . While there are expectations for the stock split and its impact on the company , the supply and demand are heavy, and liquidity has decreased .
Given that Advantest has maintained an upward trend , has a low credit ratio, and has light supply and demand, I thought it wouldn't be surprising if it attracted some attention. In addition, yesterday saw a large number of stocks rise across all categories, the TOPIX also hit a key line, and stock prices that were below the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart and below the base line were able to break out upwards decisively .
The next crucial point will be whether prices can properly surpass the previous high, but since we're switching to the October market starting today, there's a good chance that the movements of major players will also change . First, let's take a close look at the direction taken on the first day of October .
This is a bit of a digression from today's topic, but there was some data yesterday in Japan's economic indicators that caught my attention . The high school math index was 1.7%, which was lower than the forecast of 1.3%. Regarding the number of housing loans in the vicinity, indicators of the economy, such as the 6.1 for a 7% forecast, seem to be showing a slight downward trend.
Prices in Japan are also rising, and further increases will continue starting today . We've seen some rather disappointing earnings reports from consumer-related companies , and the lack of significant temperature increases in August and September has also contributed to a general decline in consumer spending.
Therefore, we think it's necessary to be a little more cautious when selecting individual Japanese stocks . So, here's a summary of today's video . I think the US price index, which has been waiting for a change in expectations, has shifted, lowering the probability of interest rate hikes and leading to a rise in technology stocks.
However, the continued rise in daily interest rates, which have turned negative, and the deterioration of the Dow Jones chart are the biggest concerns . The earnings announcement from Micron Technology, the top-traded stock by value, was released after the market closed. Let's review the details after this .
Nikkei 225 futures continue their upward trend, rising above 200 yen . Yesterday, the stock rose by over 1200 yen and climbed above the Ichimoku Cloud, and we'll be watching to see if it can go even higher. Advantest's trading volume was the highest, and its supply and demand are also good, so we'll be checking to see if it can continue to drive the market up .
Also, since we're entering the October market period today, let's take a look at any changes in this trend . Now, let's look at the index chart analysis using the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and RSI on a daily basis . First, regarding Mike Technology , their earnings report has already been released. However, the movement outside of regular trading hours isn't particularly strong.
Basically, it exceeded expectations. Since this "E" is green, I think we can say that it was a good financial result. According to the news from the paid tool Investing Pro, there is news that Mike Technology's earnings announcement was good . AI is important, and the company's fourth quarter financial results exceeded expectations, leading to a strong outlook for fiscal year 2027 .
The fact that they have exceeded expectations , and have maintained a bullish outlook for the future, should be very positive for the stock price . However, since the reaction outside of trading hours hasn't been significant yet , I think the earnings announcement itself was in line with expectations .
Let's review the final points . The New York Dow Jones Industrial Average was 443. Has it dropped a little? The S&P 500 also turned negative at the end of the month . Socks are like that too. I got the impression that the upside potential might be a bit limited. This means that Nikkei futures will likely only rise by about 200 yen, and will probably fall short of reaching 67,000 yen .
Now, let's take a look at the chart based on the Nikkei Gold price . Yesterday, the price surged by 1272 yen, breaking through the Ichimoku Cloud in one go . Futures are showing further gains today . The question is, what do we do from here? It's October now. Even during the day, it seems to be a predictable pattern that the price will collapse once around 9 or 10 o'clock.
So, let's first pay attention to today's movements to see if it can maintain its positive position by forming a key candlestick, or if it will form a bearish candlestick and approach the cloud again. Let's take a look at the topics . Yesterday, the weather crossed all the lines: the clouds, the sky line, and the baseline .
For now, we'll be carrying support downwards as we move into the next month, so I'll be keeping a close eye on which direction it heads . Given how the US stock market closed, I'm a little worried . Growth 250 is finally on the move. Yesterday, after a period of uncertainty, it became a strong contender, and although it briefly fell below the target, it quickly rose above it.
Whether it can surpass its recent high will be a very important point. On the other hand, there's the New York Dow Jones Industrial Average. It seems the decline intensified even further than what we saw earlier, and it probably closed near its lowest point of the day. That's a low price. So, the ending was a bit...
well . I'm worried about how the negative aspects are being factored in more towards the close than in Japanese stocks . Well, Santa P500 has also continued its slump for three consecutive days. The price is barely holding above the clouds and hasn't broken below the baseline, but if the support here doesn't hold, it will slide down again.
Given that the Dow is down, I think there's a risk that the Sandwich P500 will also be dragged down . Nicetack also dropped sharply at the end . I mentioned in the main part of the program that I had won, but towards the end the price dropped sharply, and this is also a low price . I feel like it's not a very good idea.
The Russell 2000 is also like that, isn't it? The underlying strength is strong, prices are hitting new lows, and the processing trend has continued for a long time, and now the RSI has finally fallen below 30. [Snorting] The fact that it just fell below 30 means it's oversold, so rather than expecting a rebound, it's more of a confirmation that it's weak, so please keep that in mind .
Let's take a look at the socks. This one also turned slightly negative and ended with a bearish candlestick . The market has been rather lackluster for the past three days or so , so even though the Nikkei average was strong yesterday, I feel that we need to be extra cautious today. Yes, so today I focused on Micro's earnings announcement .
Well, the earnings report was very good, exceeded market expectations, and presented a strong outlook, which should be commendable, but the stock price did not see a significant rise outside of trading hours . It's somewhat unclear how individual stocks in the Japanese stock market, during Japanese time, will react to these points, so let's keep a close eye on it.
So, let me share some announcements with you today. I'm planning to post a stock analysis in my magazine, which analyzes individual stocks, again tomorrow morning . I'm currently struggling to decide on a stock, but I'll do my best to analyze it during the day and aim for a rise tomorrow morning. The URL for my notes is in the description.
Please be sure to check it out. thank you . So, that's how we'll wrap things up this in the same format at 7 AM .
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