저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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금 등 귀금속은 장기적으로 매수 유망하며, 현재 광산주가 실물 대비 할인 상태이므로 지금이 매수 적기이다. 금 가격과 귀금속 전망: 1970년 $35였던 금은 현재 약 $2,000로 크게 올랐고, 장기적으로 중앙은행의 화폐 발행 때문에 귀금속은 안전자산으로서 여전히 좋은 투자처다. 본인 자산배분에서 귀금속 실물 비중은 약 25%이며 매달 금을 매수하고 있다. 내년 금이 $2,500까지 돌파할 가능성도 있다고 봤다. 광산주 전략: 귀금속 광산주가 실물 대비 할인 상태이므로 지금이 광산주 매수 적기다. 남아공 금광주가 특히 저평가되어 있다고 봤다. 대형주는 유동성이 커서 기관이 매수할 가능성이 높다. 달러와 채권: 달러는 2022년 10월 고점 이후 다시 하락 전환할 것으로 보며, 장기채(TLT)는 170 고점에서 현재 86~87 수준이라 110까지 반등 가능성을 언급했다. 미국 경기: 미국 정부 통계보다 실제 상황은 나쁘며 경기침체 진입 또는 이미 침체 상태로 본다. 임금 상승률이 생활비 상승을 따라가지 못했다. 금리와 인플레이션: 장기적으로(20~30년) 인플레이션 가속과 금리 상승 추세가 이어지나, 향후 6개월은 금리가 하락할 것으로 본다. 중앙은행의 긴축은 실질적이지 않았고 통화정책은 여전히 인플레이션적이다. 리스크: 기업 실적 둔화(특히 아시아)로 주식시장이 타격받을 수 있다. 투자 전략: 예측보다 분산이 중요하며, 미국 중심 자산에서 벗어나 캐나다·인도·싱가포르·두바이 등 다양한 지역에 실물 및 자산을 분산해야 한다. 신흥국 시장은 1973년 이후 가장 저평가 상태이므로 투자 검토 가치가 있다. 홍콩 부동산 우량 기업도 자산가치 대비 60% 할인 상태라 매력적이라고 언급했다. 출연자 전망: 중국·홍콩 등 신흥시장 센티먼트는 매우 부정적이나 그만큼 기회가 있다고 봤다.
다듬은 글
Kitco mining special coverage of the precious metal Summit in Zurich is brought to you by Bea copper Gloom boom and doom that is just the weather this is Paul Harris for Kito mining at the precious metal Summit in jurich in Switzerland today I'm joined by Mark Farber the publisher of the Gloom boom and doom report Mark welcome to Kito it's my pleasure it's my pleasure to be here in Zurich because this is my hometown and for the first time in my life I see training for 3 days in a row I well it's bit of a coincidence we got a title that corresponds with the weather yes but Mark what is the Gloom boom and doom report it's a report which comes out monthly and I write it and it's about Investments and uh economic Trends in the world and about unusual opportunities so it's widely red and uh we have a few subscribers uh the challenge is to find out something that is of interest every month and it has to be different subjects because sometimes it's more a historical overview and sometimes there are Phil philosophical observations and sometimes economic geography and geopolitics but of course it's about uh how do people investors position themselves in the markets well it's been a very interesting year there's been a lot going on in 2023 what are some of the sort key macro aspects that you've been writing about this year well I think the key is that we have long-term cycles and we have uh cycles of accelerating inflation and then de accelerating uh inflation or disinflation or even deflation and we have uh Trends and cycles of rising interest rates and falling interest rates and Rising commodity prices and falling commodity prices so it all varies but my sense is that we had a peak in commodity prices in 1980 and the peaking interest rates in 81 thereafter we had a declining structure of both uh inflation and interest rates uh partly artificially steered by central banks but we made a major low in say May August uh 2000 and where the 10 years treasury yielded less than 0.6% we went down to 0.57% and now we are in an uptrend in inflation and uptrend in interest rates that will be interrupted from time to time by counter trend moves such as we had in the 1970s but the long-term Trend next 20 30 years is for inflation to accelerate and for interest rates to move up although in the next 6 months I think that interest rates will go down so we have to distinguish between the short-term Trend and the long-term Trend now gold has been uh is tried several times to break through that $2,000 per ounce it closed October with a a month level of 2000 just under $15 shy $2,000 per ounce um how do you see the the setup for gold at the moment well I've been advising investors to own gold and other precious metal Silver Platinum for the last 40 years and I buy continuously every month some gold and in my asset allocation gold is a a side of real estate stock bonds and cash gold and precious metals physical would be about 25% so I have a large exposure to Precious Metals I don't think that gold today is as cheap as it was in 1970 when it was at $35 an ounce this I want to point out I'm a Swiss I live here I grew up here I lived since 1970 outs Switzerland but I come back and so I can tell what the price level was say 50 years ago and what it is today so let's say it's about up 10 times the price level gold in the meantime is up much more from $35 an ounce to close $2,000 an ounce so gold has actually been a good store of value for what it is and uh when I look at the Commodities complex say oil would be be cheaper than gold or wheat corn soybeans sugar uh even coffee is much cheaper than gold uh but I think in h consideration of central banks whose function in the long run is to print money we never forget that a central bank exists to print money in view of that I think that gold and other precious metals are still a good investment from a long-term perspective and also from a safety aspect secondly there are times when paper is more expensive than the physical say in real estate real estate stocks they swing more than the value of the real estate in Precious Metals it's the same sometimes precious metals stocks are at a significant premium to the physical and sometimes they at a significant discount to the physical at the present time I think that mining stocks Gold Silver Platinum are at a discount to the underlying physical precious metal so now is the time to buy essentially precious metal stocks okay I want to talk a little bit more about stocks in a moment but uh let's stick on gold just for the time being um gold is flirting with that $2,000 per ounce level yes a lot of the economists that have presented here at this conference uh expect gold to break out next year maybe in the spring maybe getting up to $2,500 per ounce what's your view on what gold May do yes it possible I think that in general uh the dollar will weaken I think it peaked out a year ago in October 2022 it went down sharply then rebounded and I think it's turning down again I think the conditions in America are not as rosy as Government statistics suggest I think the economy is going into recession or is in recession already for most people the economic recession is a reality already because the wages have gone up less than the cost of living increases okay now the uh the Doom and Gloom part of your report title sums up the feeling in many in the mining space and the gold equity space at the moment how long do you think that will last and when we can we get some to some boom well uh my observation of uh in my life as an investor and as a social Observer and Economist is that you should never buy anything where the mood is very optimistic because the expectations are exceeding the reality on the other hand we we talk about GL room and doom uh Emerging Markets are in a very negative sentiment phase especially China and Hong Kong so I would say there is an opportunity saying properties in Hong Kong you can buy the best property companies at a discount of 60% to asset value the asset value will go down but not by 60% in my view the same with gold shares I think especially the South Africans are very cheap so myself I hold most of my precious metal uh portfolio in physical and I can explain later on why but I also have uh some gold shares and I think purely from a portfolio management point of view from a performance point of view now is a good time to buy mining stocks and in your portfolio do you prefer the Big Blue Chip gold companies the intermediate otes the exploration companies the developers royalty well you know the big Diversified companies they do exploration or they buy exploration companies and they produce uh gold and silver so I have both but uh from a portfolio point of view I believe that financial institutions and the mindset of portfolio managers at Fidelity and all these large financial institutions is against gold because gold is honest money and uh say if we measure stocks against gold over a longer periods of time sometimes stocks underperform gold so the portfolio managers don't like to talk too much about gold but if they will be forced to move into the gold sector they'll buy the big ones because of the liquidity small stocks don't have enough liquidity for Calpers and for Vanguard and for Black Rock and so for so they'll buy barck and new Mon and of hor okay we're coming to the end of 2023 what do you think will happen next year and what would you like to see happen next year Well in general I think that central banks will move into I want to express here a thought that is not widely shared I don't think that central banks have tightened monetary conditions meaningfully uh the absolute level of interest rates you look at say turkey and Argentina they have inflation rates of over 100% and interest rates at 100% is money tied no you can have uh an increase in interest rates in the US and money doesn't become tight if money was tight the spread between junk bonds and treasuries would be much wider hasn't widened much the VIX Index volatility would shoot up hasn't shut up so I think that uh the monetary policies are still inflationary at the present time and that for the next 6 months inflation will obviously cool down but we will still be 30% higher in the price level in the world then we were in 2018 2019 in that situation what do you think is a healthy investment strategy for for people what is healthy I think that people must recognize that uh they can't forecast the future and they should be Diversified and by diversification I mean not just Diversified by having a account at Morgan uh JP Morgan in New York or Morgan Stanley or Colman Sachs and buy foreign stocks and buy gold mining shares but to have physical diversification that you have some Assets in Canada and some Assets in India and some Assets in Singapore and some Assets in Dubai and so forth because we have a world that is becoming IED between the wealthy and developed Western countries under the hegemony of the United States and their allies like Canada and Australia UK and Europe and then you have bricks and Bricks countries that are becoming larger and have economically an increasingly large weight in the world and politically more influence I mean 100 years ago the British could send troops to China and force uh the Chinese to pay them Indemnity fees and uh transfer Hong Kong to them nowadays you think the British could go to China and demand anything nothing and Le trust she went to wanted to lecture the Indians when she was foreign minister the Indians laugh about about her the Indian economy has overtaken Britain in the terms of size so you understand we live in a different world and investors must realize diversification means to have also some money in this new world of emerging uh countries whether it's in the Middle East or Latin America and then uh or Asia or Central Asia and then you also have to consider some of my intelligence friends believe that we have begun World War I in World War I where do you want to have your asset the region that would be the least affected would be Latin America well I'm glad to hear that Mark because that's where I live um but I I take on your point you us hemony is arguably in Decline Chinese hemony is increasing the stage is set and we're seeing that perhaps playing out in in the bricks as you mentioned the calls for dollarization and a lot of the Asian Nations increasing their their Central Bank gold Holdings um how do you think this will play out next year well I think that asset markets are not in a favorable position because uh financial markets uh they will be plagued by uh in the corporate sector I mean stock markets will be plag by declining corporate earnings in Asia it's already visible and uh in terms of currencies I think the dollar will go down precious metals will rise and the bom the bond market will rally for a while say if you look at TLT the high was 170 it's now at uh 87 86 I think we can rally to around 110 so investors uh should do well by being out of the US dollar in View and Emerging Markets they have never been this low since 1973 Visa V the developed markets so I would look at investing some money in emerging economies okay well we'll certainly have to get you back uh next year and see how things progress yes Mark thank you very much for joining us today thank you this is Paul Harris for Kito mining at the precious metal Summit in jich in Switzerland if you're like what you see don't forget to subscribe KidCo mining special coverage of the precious metal Summit in Zurich is brought to you by beasa copper
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