저자: 미상 · 외국인
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Michael Burry의 패시브 투자 버블 경고를 소개하는 영상으로, 결론은 패시브 자금 쏠림이 시장 과열을 키우고 공황 시 매도 연쇄를 증폭시킬 수 있다는 것이다. 패시브 투자 확산: S&P500 종목 지분의 약 20% 이상이 패시브 상품에 보유되어 있으며, 2003년에는 약 3.3% 수준이었다고 소개된다. Burry의 주장: 2019년 인터뷰와 최근 트위터에서 패시브 투자가 가격 발견 기능을 약화시켰고, 기업 펀더멘털이 아닌 지수 편입 여부로 주가가 움직이는 버블이 형성됐다고 주장했다. 그는 2023년 전후 주식시장 대격변을 예상하는 것으로 언급된다. 유동성 비유: 영화관 화재 비유로 패시브 자금이 일제히 현금화하면 매도 물량이 몰려 주가가 급락할 수 있다고 설명했다. 반론 데이터: Vanguard 자료상 ETF 거래의 약 94%는 발행시장이 아닌 유통시장에서 이뤄져 기초자산 거래량에 직접 영향이 적다. BlackRock 2017년 분석에서도 애플 거래량의 95% 이상은 ETF 자금 흐름과 무관했다. 위험 종목: Russell 2000 등 지수에 포함된 소형·저유동성 종목이 대규모 패시브 매도 시 가장 취약하다는 점이 강조된다. 결론적 시사점: 지수 편입은 긍정적 신호로 여겨지지만, 공황 국면에서는 저유동성 종목에 대한 리스크로 작용할 수 있다. 영상은 시장 전반에 대한 구체적 가격 목표나 방향성 매매 권고는 제시하지 않고, 패시브 쏠림의 구조적 위험을 논하는 데 초점을 둔다.
다듬은 글
do you happen to own index funds as a part of your stock portfolio I do my YouTube buddies do my accountant does heck even my old school friends do well what if I told you the famous Market tracking Index Fund might be fueling a massive stock market bubble well recently that's exactly what legendary investor Michael bur said on Twitter quote the difference between now and 2000 also known as the crash is the passive investing bubble that inflated steadily over the last decade all theaters are overcrowded and the only way anyone can get out is by trampling each other and the door is only so big but what does he mean by this then could the innocent Market tracking Index Fund actually bring down the entire stock market well let's find out so as a very quick refresher by buying a market tracking Index Fund you're essentially buying a stock that represents diversification across the whole market for example the biggest Index Fund in the whole world is spy which is an S&P 500 Index Fund so by buying into spy those shares will actually represent a very small ownership in the largest 5 00 companies in the United States and the idea here is that by buying the market you'll get the same return as the market over time a return Which history tells us is not too shabby it's around 10% annually for the S&P 500 over the long term and because of the quite frankly amazing historical annual return of this strategy but also the Simplicity and ease of actually implementing it over the past few decades passive investing has gained a lot of popularity a study by Bloomberg intelligence recently found that on average more than 20% of the share of each company in the S&P 500 were held by passive instruments for context back in 2003 roughly 3.3% of the market was held by passive structures and these kind of numbers have now started raising questions as to whether this dominance of passive investment is actually a good thing for the market Michael bar certainly thinks it's caused for concern but what's interesting is that despite mentioning the passive investing bubble recently on Twitter this actually isn't the first time he's raised the issue in fact back in 2019 he did an email interview with Bloomberg on exactly this topic where he noted quote passive investing has removed price Discovery from the equity markets the simple thesis and models that get people into sectors factors indexes or ETFs and mutual funds mimicking those strategies these do not require the security level analysis that is required for True price Discovery what this means is that over time as passive investing becomes more popular more and more shares of these big companies are being held not because the investor actually likes the company but simply because they're in the index and what this leads to over time is an overinflation of stock prices the buying of shares is no longer simply driven by the fundamental performance of these businesses it's in fact being driven because they happen to be in the right index and that right there that's a bubble you know when the price of an asset inflates for a reason other than it's underlying performance so the question is could the popularity of passive investing cause such a bubble that it could pose a threat to Market stability if investors on mass start moving out of index funds and back into Cash well the answer as per usual isn't clear for example let's revisit how stock prices actually move I mean it's pretty simple stock prices move based on supply and demand so if a lot of investors want to buy shares but only a few investors are willing to sell then the stock price will move up and on the flip side if there's sudden a lot of investors trying to sell but there's not that many buyers then the stock price will fall now for every stock they have a typical daily trading volume AKA how many shares on average change hands each day and the thing to know about daily volume is that unless the daily volume is suddenly heavily Disturbed then the share prices they don't really move all that much but for example if the market is crashing and there's widespread selling then occasionally there can be such a flood of volume trying to get out that it can very rapidly kill the stock price there won't be very many buyers but there will be a lot of people trying to sell thus the price will be set by the most desperate player that's trying to leave until more buyers arrive to settle things down this is what Michael bar is talking about when he says all theaters are overcrowded and the only way anyone can get out is by trampling each other and the door is only so big this is a reference to a classic stock market example that explains daily trading volume the example goes that you're in a cinema with you know 100 people and the Only Rule of this Cinema is that to get out you have to find someone else to take your seat so in normal conditions that's okay usually there'll be someone that wants to come in and watch a movie but what would happen if the theater suddenly caught fire all of a sudden you'd have a hundred people trying desperately to get out but not a lot of people wanting to come in and watch the movie while the theater Burns that's what Michael bar is worried will happen in the stock market his opinion is that if conditions continue to deteriorate that will trigger a lot of passive investors to try and leave the market and go back to cash but if everybody does this in a panic then it will crash stock prices and the thing is usually this happens to isolated businesses when things go wrong but what happens if passive investors which you know actually own a little bit of everything all decide to leave at once well I guess it crashes everything right all the stocks in the index will cop the same effect however there is one factor on the flip side of that coin and that is that despite a lot lot of trading activity occurring in and out of these passive funds this actually doesn't translate to a massive amount of trading volume in the underlying companies that make up the index how could that be well it's actually because most of the trading of ETF shares happens on the secondary Market AKA it's passive investors simply trading back and forth with themselves I want to give a huge shout out to Ben Felix who actually made a great video on this topic three years ago in that video he quotes two really really interesting pieces of evidence the first is from Vanguard and this shows the percentage of ETF trading that is either on the secondary Market or that actually affects the trading volume of the underlying Securities they found that 94% of the time the trading was conducted on the secondary Market in other words for all of that ETF trading volume 94% of it didn't even touch the underlying stock positions that make up the ETF but what about if there's a lot of demand for an ETF or on the contrary a lot of selling all at once in those cases ETF units do get created or destroyed and that does cause trading in the underlying stocks but interestingly even when you consider the normal activity of creation and Redemption a study conducted by Black Rock in 2017 shows that well that's still a very small fraction of overall trading in fact they described a case of Apple which was at the time the largest company in the world they noted that in July 2017 quote a month which saw large inflows to ETFs 65 .9 billion of Apple stock was traded although Apple was held by 331 ETFs globally we found that at least 95% of the stocks trading volume in July 2017 was not directly related to ETF flows so in reality despite ETFs becoming a larger and larger holder of the market over the last few decades they have quite a minimal effect on the trading volumes of the underlying Securities they hold but could bar still be on to something because well quite frankly Michael Barry is expecting stock market Armageddon over the next few years and if you think that's going to happen then maybe he still does have a point because in the case of a stock market crash you do see panic and when you see genuine panic in the market then wild selling Cycles can emerge you know a drop in stock prices can cause a wave of investors to panic sell but that Panic selling increases the selling volume which causes the share price to fall further this can then start a negative feedback loop and can crash the stock price very very quickly so Bar's thinking is if we do get a genuine Panic moment in the market where Market tracking ETFs are being Panic sold on mass then there probably is a chance that that selling and destruction of ETF units could amplify the crash of stock prices and on this topic he thinks the stocks at highest risk of coping this effect are the smaller less traded stocks that still make it into a lot of these big indexes he said in 2019 quote in the Russell 2000 Index for example the vast majority of stocks are lower volume lower value traded stocks today I counted 1,49 stocks that traded less than 5 million in value during the day that's over half and almost half of those 456 stocks traded less than 1 million during the day yet through indexation and passive investing hundreds of billions are linked to stocks like this the S&P 500 is no different the index contains the world's largest stocks but still 266 stocks over half traded under 150 million today that sounds like a lot but trillions of dollars in assets globally are indexed to these stocks the theater keeps getting more crowded but the exit door is the same as it always was all this gets worse as you get into even less liquid equity and bond markets globally so it's a very interesting perspective and does make you wonder how these smaller cap stocks in large indexes will fare if a lot of passive investors move out of the market during the next big crash you know normally we cheer when a smaller company finally gets included into the index but this is an interesting example where in fact maybe index inclusion isn't such a win but with that said definitely let me know what your thoughts are on the chances that passive investment vehicles will have a large impact in the next big Panic moment of the stock market I'd definitely be interested to hear what you guys have to say let me know that stuff down in the comment section below of course leave a like on the video if you did enjoy it subscribe to the channel if you'd like to see more but guys that will just about do us for today thanks very much for watching I'll see you guys in the next video
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