저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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결론: 달리오는 과도한 부채·통화 창출과 내부 갈등, 강대국 충돌로 인해 현금성·채권 등 금융자산에 불리한 환경이 올 수 있다고 보며, 분산투자를 핵심 대응으로 제시한다. [중국 투자와 리스크 관리] 중국은 1984년부터 투자해 왔고 고위급 인사들과 접촉해 삼각측량으로 판단한다고 설명한다. 다만 틀릴 수 있다는 겸손함을 전제로, 감당 가능한 금액만 투자한다. [분산투자 원칙] 상관관계가 낮은 15개 이상의 독립적 수익원에 분산하면 리스크를 약 80% 줄이면서 수익은 유지해 수익/위험 비율을 5배 개선할 수 있다고 주장한다. 주식·채권·금 등 서로 다른 흐름의 자산을 조합하라고 권한다. [시장의 특성] 시장은 경마처럼 위험에 맞춰 기대수익이 조정되어 있어 특정 종목을 고르기보다 분산이 중요하다고 본다. 합의가 과도하면 비싸고, 모두가 싫어할 때 싸다는 역발상 관점을 제시한다. [암호화폐 의견] 블록체인 기술은 우수하지만 비트코인 등 디지털 화폐는 인플레이션 헤지나 가치 저장 기능이 약하다고 평가한다. 시가총액이 작은데도 관심이 과도하며, 소량만 보유한다고 말한다. 향후 인플레이션율만큼 구매력을 지키는 더 나은 디지털 화폐가 나올 수 있다고 본다. [거시 환경 전망] 부채·통화 팽창, 국가 내부의 부와 가치관·정치적 갈등, 미국 중심 세계질서에 대한 강대국 충돌 세 가지를 주요 위험으로 꼽는다. 역사 연구를 통해 500년간 유사한 패턴이 반복되었다고 설명한다. [출연자 전망 요약] 금융자산(채권 등)은 인플레이션 대비 저조한 수익이 예상되며, 대안 저장 수단 수요가 늘 것이라고 본다. 구체적인 가격 목표나 기간 제시는 없다.
다듬은 글
I believe we're in an environment in which we're creating a lot of debt and money and the money as we know it and financial assets such as debt assets which is just a commitment to receive a lot of money I think we're an environment that's not going to be a good environment and people will want to look for alternative storeholds as well we're now seeing a type of conflict that we never saw before in today's video Ray dalio the founder of the world's biggest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates talks about the financial system and it's working money in the FED dalio explains how he sees the world right now and elaborates on the macroeconomic picture how are you cutting through that noise and trying to figure out for example the big question of is this a place that's becoming less open to free market principles or do they just have a an idiosyncratic or unique approach to free markets what I don't know if I'm articulating that well but how do you know you're articulating a well and I can answer your question first of all I should say that I've I start with a real humility in operating and saying I don't know if I'm wrong or not and I don't like to go into areas that you know I'm no I'm no expert in except if I um and in case of china I have it's a particular case I've been going there since 1984 I have contact with you know the highest ranking most immersed people Chinese and non-chinese and then I triangulate you know I speak with oh you know I won't name them all but you know this one or that one or that and they are immersed in it and I get the triangulation and that leads me to whatever my conclusions are and then I don't invest more than an amount of money that I can uh be comfortable getting whacked with so I diversify I become highly informed through the triangulation through the expertise that I've developed if it was a place that I didn't develop much expertise in it would be that I would be driven to have a certain amount of understanding and I would also know you know let who are the really not only smart but straightforward honest people people of good character who will not BS me and so on and it'll be that Curiosity of the debate between them that will help guide me and then I'll tread gently in that direction by putting not too much in you know not too little so it goes back to this 15 I'm on 15 good uncorrelated Investments return streams so that's how I would do it and how I do it so you're setting yourself up so you're you're aware that you could be wrong and you're making sure that your errors won't be fatal if you're wrong that's right right and have the best Insight because in China it's because I I know it very very well with the right people right I mean that's that's key there's so many people who are not as fortunate as I am to have those exposures but then they they still have to do theirs and then they have to do the triangulations so it's that oh but even though all of that's the case they're the great uncertainties what if the what if we go to a type of economic war or a type of or worse a military war or all of these things in every place in every location in every investment in almost every decision practically there's a probability of being wrong and you know and painfully wrong and so like I say if I have 15 good uncorrelated bats I will reduce my Risk by 80 percent without reducing my return and that means I improve my return to risk ratio by a factor of five so yes it's it's like a casino you know yeah on the casinos playing and they have so many tables and so on many things going on it's not any one of them on any one night it's that all that diversification and that you know consistency what I mean is it's like a poker you have somebody's gonna take money away from somebody else in terms of that Zero Sum and it's more difficult for to compete in than the Olympics it's more rewarding more people change it you wouldn't say I'm going to go compete in the Olympics it's very difficult to compete in the markets so I would say the humility should be very high that means the diversification also should be very high and then you know we could spend a lot of time on what type of diversification you need it's particularly almost easy to do in the market because the markets almost make all the bets more equal than you would imagine because it's like betting on in a horse race and what happens is they're Faster Horses and they're slower horses but the odds are adjusted for that so you can be equally likely to bet on the uh least likely horse to win and it'll have the same expected value as betting on the most likely horse because of the way that they're handicapped and the same thing exists in the markets it's almost like they're almost the markets will make them more equal in terms of that edge so um what it means is that that diversification is important now what do you diversify you have to understand a little bit about what makes markets move together and not I don't think you want me to digress into that but you can see you can just even look at how things have changed over time but it's something that we're not going to be able to cover you know here now because it's just too lengthy but yes it and you could go back and you could see ask whoever you're at asking about the Investments go back and take them to the year 2000 each one of them I go back to 1900 but maybe it's not so easy for you to go back to 1900 but if you take that investment and you see how the one did and then you see how they did in relationship to the other and you go through 2008 or you go through this period to recently you could see how they performed and how they performed in relationship to each other and how the diversification would have worked so those are the things that should be done I think so broadly speaking you'd you'd want so so let's say a regular investor has you know a Vanguard index fund that has you know the total stock market or the S P 500 or something and they have an international Index Fund or something like that and then you'd also want to have what some inflation index bonds some cash that's right like gold right yeah and you they're all like return streams I call them you know you plot them and they go up like this and so on and you do that so now you look at the one over a period of time knowing that the future might be different from the other but looking at how they move in relationship to each other and then you say okay if I put this one with this one and so on and then they match it now I could explain more about financial engineering because there are some twists there like how do you risk balance them you know some have more risk than others my raw risk I mean volatility for example the stock market is more than twice as volatile as the bond market depending on what part of the bond market what stock but roughly twice volatility so if you put 50 percent of your money in each it'll still be dominated by the stocks so how you find the right bonds at you know longer duration bonds will have greater volatility or whatever you put those things together in a way where you see how they balance each other so that they provide that diversification can't tell you how many times in my 50 years the exact same things happened so you kind of know you smell them you know they have that smell to them but I would say the best thing you could do is go back in history and see the other cases almost imagine everything's another one of those you know so I I go back to that case and I think you know there was the nifty 50 there was the.com bubble there was the real estate bubble you know there's so many of them and I use I have criteria to identify them but that's me as a professional doing that kind of research to have criteria the markets reflect the opinions so for that reason when everybody agrees on something they're probably expensive and when when everything is hated and you think it's the worst everybody then it's probably cheap and people confuse the fact that let's say a good company is not a better investment than a Bad Company any more than the horse in the horse race you know that the worst performing horse has odds that are much higher uh if you if he comes in and so because of that you have to know what to look for in those things but I don't think that that kind of I think you have to be careful about that and diversify well you know and and beware of fads you know but if you diversify well you know it'll be easier and better because it's very difficult also to distinguish a fad from a new reality you know is crypto a new reality or is it a fad is this technology thing you know a new reality or a fad you know those can be difficult to decide so you know go back to the diversification and have you updated your your view on crypto now that many well yes but I I think I'd rather not get I can get into it but we want to talk about the life cycle and the other parts yeah the book I think because I want to help people with their principles I mean uh but everybody's interested in crypto and and you know but I don't I don't know that we should do you think we should digress can you give us I I think people will be so curious I think it's worth giving a sort of two or three sentence synopsis of a brief view of whether whether you think there's anything there or whether you've kind of come to think no I don't think that's much well um there's a technology of the blockchain technology which I think is an excellent technology and I think it's very important to distinguish it from a digital currency and if we're dealing with digital currencies let's use Bitcoin as an example you know there are all sorts of things there's stablecoin and blah blah blah all sorts of things but by and large we're let's talk about uh Bitcoin now first of all I believe we're in an environment in which we're creating a lot of debt and money and the money as we know it and financial assets such as debt assets which is just a commitment to receive a lot of money I think we're an environment that's not going to be a good environment and people will want to look for alternative storeholds as well than those and entered money having said that like all the digital uh currencies basically don't replicate anything they move up and down for all it's it's not like it's tied to it's it's inflation hedge or it's this and that it's it's mostly so it's not an effective storehold of wealth you almost have nothing to hang your hat on and it's um it's tiny Bitcoin right now probably has a total value of maybe a quarter of what Microsoft stock is and so on so it's it becomes a preoccupation by people that is disproportionate with its a true reality I mean why study that there's so many things so many different Investments that you can study and uh it's as a storehold of wealth there's not privacy to it there may be privacy from the public but you know it's very easy it's everybody's tracking what you're doing on it and so on so it's not private and as a medium of exchange it's not very effective it's not like you can go there easily buy stuff with it you can buy some stuff with it but not much so it wouldn't be my favorite storehold of wealth I mean I own a tiny bit of it just because of the element of you know who knows and it could be there but I'm not um and and also to experience what it's like but I um I do think that in time there will be better digital currencies like I believe that you can create a digital currency that will give you the equivalent of the inflation rate and that's buying power because I believe that most currencies are most dead instruments which are as I say they're a promise to receive currency over the duration of them I think that they will have poor returns relative to inflation where I think you could get something that'll be a good digital currency but they don't have it now and so many things have sort of come and gone as fads you know um nfts and you know this coin and that coin and and so on so anyway that's what I think about it but again I don't want them to tactically make the decisions because things become cheaper at the same time so cautious means just constantly diversify well but yeah the the things that one of the things that I've learned is that many things that have surprised me surprised me because they never happened in my lifetime before but they happen many times in history it's just like a pandemic or a big debt crisis what happened in 2000 and then eight was the same thing that happened you know in 1933 and so what the three things that are happening now that prompted me to do the research which is in the book principles for dealing with the changing world order were the amount of debt and money creation and its effect on currencies in effect on the world and the value of money and all of that so I needed to study that going back a long time the second is the amount of internal conflict we have the largest wealth and values differences this is all measured that shows up in the book or the videos you can see the gaps largest wealth and that and values and then political differences that is causing these conflicts so the worst internal conflicts politically socially in all of those and then uh number three is this is the first time in my lifetime most of our Lives times therefore that we have a great power conflict where you know the world order that we started was in 1945 just like they always do there's a war they're winners of the war somebody comes out of it rich somebody comes out of it poor and then we set the American World Order in 1945 with the United United States accounted for half of the world's GDP it had 80 percent of the world's money the money was gold at the time it had a monopoly on military power and so then you see that change and so we're now seeing a type of conflict that we never saw before Soviet Union was never an economic power was just military power with nuclear weapons so it was never and so we're seeing that great power conflict those three things led me to want to study history and to watch the Rises and declines because I knew the same things happen basically in the 1930 to 45 period but I wanted to go back so I went back 500 years when I studied this in the same things happened over and over again
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