저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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피터 쉬프는 이번 경기침체가 최근 경험한 어떤 침체보다 크고 깊을 것이며, 인플레이션과 침체가 동시에 나타나 체감 고통이 클 것이라고 주장한다. 현재 지표의 개선은 일시적이며, 연준이 수요를 실질적으로 꺾지 못해 연말로 갈수록 인플레이션 지표가 다시 악화될 것으로 본다. 달러 약세 지속과 무역적자 확대가 원자재 가격을 신고점으로 밀어 올릴 것이라는 근거를 든다. 고용은 풀타임 일자리가 줄고 파트타임과 겸업이 늘어나는 식으로 실업률 수치가 왜곡되어 있으며, 해고가 시차를 두고 본격화될 것이라고 전망한다. 빅테크, 크립토 등 해고 사례가 늘어날 것이라 본다. 연준은 인플레이션을 잡을지 경기를 살릴지 선택해야 하지만, 연준의 유일한 도구는 인플레이션 창출이라 결국 물가 상승을 감수하며 경기 부양을 택할 가능성이 높다고 본다. 금리 인상의 효과는 시차를 두고 나타나며 현재 막 본격화되고 있다. 제로금리에 기반한 가짜 경제는 5% 금리에서 버틸 수 없어 붕괴가 불가피하다고 주장한다. 투자 측면에서는 대부분의 투자자가 손실을 볼 것이며, 고PER 성장주(FANG)와 크립토 거품이 크게 꺼질 것으로 본다. 반면 원자재(금, 산업금속, 농산물, 석유·가스)와 실물자산, 실적이 확실한 가치주, 부채가 적은 신흥국 소비 관련 기업이 상대적으로 유리하다고 말한다. 채권과 종이자산은 손실이 클 것이라 보며, 주식 중에서도 파산하지 않는 종목은 과거 가격 대비 큰 폭으로 재평가되어 하락할 것으로 전망한다. 달러 위기나 통화 위기가 올 경우 금이 재평가될 수 있다고 본다.
다듬은 글
it's going to be a huge recession I think it'll be a bigger recession a deeper recession than anything we've experienced In Our Lifetime and so this could be one hell of a hangover I think unlike previous recessions this one is going to be inflationary you're going to have recession and inflation happening at the same time and that's what's going to make this recession so much more painful because even if you don't lose your job it's going to hurt [ the what is going on and is the Fed winning or are there actually problems underneath all of these seemingly positive numbers no the FED is not winning but everybody else is losing that's for sure um you know they haven't really destroyed demand they've changed it a little bit but if you look at what's happening people who have jobs are spending everything they earn and then some uh the savings rate is near record low credit card debt is record high so people keep on spending nobody is cutting back on their consumption maybe they're spending more money on food and insurance and rent and less money on other items but in aggregate we haven't seen a reduction in spending or an increase in savings the government continues to spend like crazy they just passed that reconciliation bill but the government deficits despite what Biden said in his uh non-state of the Union Address the other night the deficits are skyrocketing and so that's all additional spending demand in the economy the fed the FED hasn't done anything to to bend that curve and so I think we have seen this transitory Improvement in the numbers because they were really bad and now they're not as bad but I think that as the year progresses we're going to see that change and we're going to start to see a worsening of the inflation data again something that the markets are really not prepared for neither is the Fed why do you think it is going to get worse and this would contradict there's many investors like Barry Stone like and others who think that we're actually going to see negative inflation come the summer what is your logic in terms of why you think the inflation data will worsen over the coming months yeah well first of all it's only seven percent if you look back for an entire year A lot of people are saying hey if you look back six months it's around three or something like that which which may be true but of course again the way the government measures prices and what actually happens to prices are two different things so the real increase in prices is much greater than what is being officially reported by the government but I think that you know you had this initial spike in a lot of prices and then the FED started hiking rates and that had an impact on the dollar it had an impact on Commodities you saw uh commodity prices come down particularly oil prices and higher interest rates had an impact in housing and other areas of the economy and so you got some temporary uh easing of the inflationary pressures also US GDP got a boost from the strength of the dollar because the initial results of higher rates was a stronger dollar that brought down the cost of our Imports that helped keep commodity prices down that also helped boost the GDP numbers but I think all that is going to reverse we saw a big drop in the dollar in the fourth quarter dollar weakness is continuing uh so far in 2023 I expect it to accelerate and that's going to worsen the trade deficits and that's going to help push commodity prices to new highs and all that's going to put renewed upward pressure on the inflation numbers well you know the the real problem for the FED might be that not only do we get a surprise uptick in inflation but we get a downtick in the economy you know it's only a matter of time before we start laying people off I mean we're already laying people off but eventually it's going to be impacted more in the official numbers because right now what's creating all this noise in the jobs numbers are all the part-time jobs that people are being forced to take on because they can't get by on the income from their full-time job or some people may have had a couple of part-time jobs and they needed to take a third part-time job so that's going on right now because if you look at the data over the last 10 months we've actually lost full-time jobs there are fewer people that have full-time jobs now than have them 10 months ago but you have over a million and a half more people that now have part-time jobs now some of those people have still have their full-time job they're just working another job now why would somebody who has a full-time job go out and get a second job well it's because they can't afford to pay the bills with the salary from their full-time job so they need to Moonlight and so that's what's going on and that's really what is impacting these numbers as far as why the unemployment number is so low I know a lot of people aren't being counted as as unemployed and I know a lot of people a couple years ago so made the decision to be self-employed they got into the gig economy whether they're driving Ubers or doordash or something like that and and so they can never be fired you know once you decide that you're just going to work for yourself you can't fire yourself so you can never really be unemployed so I think there's a lot of noise in these numbers I think the labor market is considerably weaker than the FED believes or the market believes but at some point all these layoffs that we're getting and look more layoffs were announced today look at a firm that by now pay later companies stock down 20 today uh laying off I forget a quarter of their Workforce I mean who didn't see that one coming and I talked about the nonsense of these buy now pay later companies uh when they were you know all the rage but one of the reasons that consumers were able to spend money is because they didn't have to pay they just got stuff for free and they thought they'd pay later but of course they're going to pay never and that's going to be the problem for a lot of these companies because you know they fronted the money and now they're not going to get it from their their customers but you're getting more and more layoffs you know from tech companies you're going to see a lot more layoffs in uh you know crypto and blockchain all these companies you know hired people I mean all these guys are going to lose their jobs but with I think that what's going to surprise the FED is going to be that not only is inflation going to turn higher but the economy is going to turn down and so will uh job creation and unemployment will go up so inflation will be stronger than the FED expects the economy will be weaker now what does it do that's the 64 trillion dollar question is the Fed in a weakening economy and maybe even a financial crisis who knows what might blow up because interest rates you know they're almost five percent now and they're going to be five percent pretty soon you know we were at zero uh so that's a huge change you know you you built an economy around zero percent rates it can't function at five percent the whole thing has to implode which is a good thing because we had a phony economy and that needs to implode but when it does it obviously creates a lot of problems a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money and that's go not you know that's not going to be something that the government is going to want to sit by and just you know watch it play out they never do they always feel compelled to intervene and do something even if what they do makes everything worse but will the feds sit back or will the FED rather fight inflation and say you know to hell with the economy or the the labor market or the financial system or the stock market we don't care we're going to fight inflation we don't care what's happening in the economy or are they going to say we we don't care about inflation we got to go help the economy we got to do something about uh what's happening the economy and of course the only thing the FED can do is create inflation that's the only thing it's ever done that's its only tool is inflation so if the FED is going to have to say yes we have high inflation but we're going to make it even higher because we feel that we need to do that to help the economy or the labor market and so when you see what the FED is doing is that there's some weird world where like all of the effort and all of the time and energy that they're putting into joining liquidity is just being washed away by these Asian central banks that are actually pumping liquidity in at a much faster rate than it can be drained on the Western World well first of all I don't know that the FED is actually draining it fast enough I mean the balance Sheet's still around four and a half trillion I mean nine and eight and a half trillion excuse me so it's an enormous balance sheet I mean you know it's only come down maybe half a trillion from from its peak but of course the balance sheet blew up a lot faster than it's shrinking remember how quickly uh we we blew we inflated that that balance sheet the deflation is taking a lot longer and I I don't I think it's going to be aborted I don't think the FED is going to continue on this path because the the rate hikes that we've already had are taking a toll on the economy right now and we're just beginning to see the effects and it's going to get a lot worse remember it's only been a year or not even since the FED raised rates for the first time right so you know there is a lag between the increase of raids and the effect on the economy and and so we're just kind of catching up to those effects but they're going to be enormous in all segments of the economy I mean not just the stock market and the real estate market but you haven't you know American economy that's based on cheap money I mean that's what it was running on for more than a decade uh well now it's time to pay the piper and everybody's broke you can't pay the piper so that's bad news for the piper who thought he was going to get paid but it's everybody else too because now they can't get any more uh free music or entertainment so this is a huge Day of Reckoning here that we're just on the cusp of let's take kind of each segment of the market or each market participant independently what does this mean for small business owners or individual investors or consumers is there kind of a full-on recession how bad is it when does it happen how are you thinking about what the impact of this situation will be on the average American or those small business owners well yeah it's going to be a huge recession I think it'll be a bigger recession a deeper recession than anything we've experienced uh in our lifetimes and um you know because a bust is proportionate to the boom and and this has really been an unprecedented uh boom um created by by the FED created by artificially low interest rates and and quantitative easing and so this could be one hell of a hangover that's what's going to happen and you know so but different people are going to be affected differently you know the definition of a recession is when your neighbor is out of work and it's a depression when you're out of work right so you know not everybody's going to lose their job um but I think everybody's wages are going to be reduced in real terms so even if you don't lose your job I think that the money that you earn is not going to go as far when you when you go to buy stuff because I think unlike previous recessions this one is going to be inflationary you're going to have recession and inflation happening at the same time and that's what's going to make this recession so much more painful because even if you don't lose your job it's going to hurt um and I think most investors are going to lose money I think most investors over the last decade or two have been channeled into the wrong assets by the artificial low interest rates so a lot of people own very high multiple companies growth companies uh and in fact companies in many cases don't even have any earnings at all right there was they were just speculating on earnings in the future but people were willing to do that when the cost of money was basically zero but I think as the Dynamics change a lot of people are going to realize that they're holding the wrong assets and they're going to get repriced and marked down so you know there's going to be big losses for most investors that you know have the Fang stocks or a lot of these stocks that did really well you know when the Fed was blowing up the bubble but they're going to do horribly when it bursts uh and you know the same thing for you know your favorite cryptocurrencies I mean cryptocurrencies also got caught up into the speculative Mania and um you know the air is going to come out of that bubble too so a lot of people that had a lot of money or at least they thought they had a lot of money in their in their in their digital wallets they're going to find out that there's really not much there I mean they'll still have the crypto they just won't have much real money if they if they try to sell it when you look at the assets that will do best so you talked about Fang stocks crypto a couple of other assets that you anticipate will do poorly in this environment what are the assets that you're most excited about or that you think the average individual uh likely will end up benefiting if they are positioned correctly well I mean these and these are the assets that I've been buying for a long time anticipating this it's not like I just woke up and decided you know I've been I've been planning for this for a long long time in fact a lot of people would say well you know see I'm wrong because I've been saying this for so long I wasn't wrong I just knew what was going to happen a long time before it did but I think the assets that are ultimately going to do well are one Commodities I think Commodities are going to do extremely well uh in an inflationary cycle and that's you know all sorts of Commodities Industrial Metals agricultural Commodities oil and gas so I have Investments there and of course precious metals you know they're you know going to do very well Gold's the king of all Commodities and I I think it's going to do very well in a commodity Bill Market especially if we have ultimately end up having a dollar crisis currency crisis and gold is you know remodetized in some shape or form either by the private sector or by various governments and so there could be a huge increase in in the price of gold in this type of environment but I think that there'll be a lot of money lost in bonds paper assets I think that people that own quality real assets will do better and so that's the value stocks I mean companies that actually have big earnings right now not companies that might earn money in the future uh but that earn a lot of money right now and have been earning a lot of money in the past so that the income is reliable and dependable and the companies are selling goods and services that people really need to buy and they'll buy them I mean maybe they'll buy a little bit less but they'll keep buying and they'll cut back or give up something else in order to buy these things and so you want to own those businesses I think the businesses that cater to Consumers that don't have a lot of debt and that have more productive jobs are going to be better because their customers are going to be in a better position to pay and uh you know so that would exclude you know the U.S I mean some Americans will be able to pay but a lot of Americans will be too broke to buy buy products I think the Emerging Markets are going to be um you know much a more fertile ground I think the uh you know the consumers there are going to be in better shape they don't have the kind of debt that you have let's say in the United States or some of the uh you know more developed Western economies you have younger populations they're still working educated uh skilled uh making stuff and they so they can you know generate real demand because they could also generate Supply to create that demand and so I also want to invest in in those economies I think emerging market stocks uh will be winners you know in uh in you know this environment I think they'll do better on balance than the developed markets um and I think you know overseas markets will do better than than domestic markets here in the United States I think equities will do better than bonds but it depends on the equity I mean because there are stocks that are going to go bankrupt and that's you know you lose 100 if your company goes bankrupt but a lot of stocks that won't go bankrupt investors will decide that maybe they're worth 10 cents on the dollar or five cents on the dollar relative what they thought in a very different uh investing environment
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