저자: Justin · 외국인
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마이크론 FY Q1 2022 실적 발표 후 주가 급등. 매출 77억달러, EPS 2.16달러로 컨센서스 소폭 상회. 메모리 수요 증가·과점 구조, 주주환원(자사주 매입, 첫 배당) 확대를 근거로 보유 중이며 장기 낙관. 재고·설비투자(capex)·공급망이 리스크로 언급됨. 발표 시점 주가 94달러 기준 1년 내 100달러 이상 전망.
다듬은 글
hey everybody my name is justin thank you so much for joining me today today i want to give another update on micron stock as they recently announced their q1 2022 earnings now as i go through this video get some value out of it please smash that thumbs up button really helps out the channel a lot and helps push us out to other fellow investors and also very appreciate it all right so microns fiscal year does not follow the calendar year so currently right now in december is part of their second quarter of 2022 so a little odd so just keep that in mind i personally own micron stock and it's one of my largest holdings in my portfolio so i'm very very bullish on this stock as an investor myself i want to make it a point to review my companies that i personally own i invest in a couple times a year to make sure that my investment thesis is still playing out and the story has not changed after micron announced their q1 2022 earnings their stock shut up 10 in one day the stock is up 13 over the past week so obviously investors liked what they saw from micron let's first discuss microns business then get into why i bought into micron and then finally wrap it up the video with the recent financial numbers and future guidance okay so what does micron do well they are a semiconductor that makes memory trip chips so they make the dram and nand chips i know people have given me such hard time because i've been calling them dram chips i know they're dram but that's just how it goes out you know in my head there are only three companies in the world that make these types of memory chips and in fact micron is the only company that's in the united states that makes the dram chip so this is a very unique space in the market when you get a small number of companies and one segment of the market it is called an oligopoly that means there's very limited competition in their space the other two companies in this space are samsung and sk which are both in south korea micron sk are the only pure plays in this industry as samsung makes all kinds of different products in the market so why did i first start investing in micron well first of all a bunch of super investors that i follow including lilu monster bry david tepper among a lot of others have bought into this company in fact at one point david tepper this was about 25 of his entire portfolio the other reason is the tailwinds in this specific industry the demand for memory chips has skyrocketed to the point that these companies cannot keep up with the demand the demand was already increasing but the recent pandemic sped up that even further this creates a perfect scenario where these companies like micron can charge more further memory chips and customers will pay it because they have to pay it the industry is projected to have considerable growth going forward over the next few years the third reason i invested in micron is management i feel that they are very transparent transparent in their guidance and they are making strong effort to give back to shareholders for example in q4 2021 management pledge 50 of their free cash flow to go back to the shareholders through share buybacks in addition they announced their first ever dividend yes it was only 10 cents i get that but manage it would not make a commitment to a dividend if they didn't think their free cash flow wasn't going to cover these investments to shareholders going forward i do expect that dividend increase over time in fact the company as far as share buybacks go bought 1.2 billion shares or 1.2 billion dollars worth of shares in 2021 so very impressive they also purchased another 259 million dollars worth of shares in q1 and 2022.
so there go so they were doing what they pledged to do okay so let's switch gears and talk about q1 2022 numbers now revenue came in at 7.7 billion dollars which beat estimates by approximately 10 million dollars earnings per share came at 2.16 per share beating estimates by 2 cents this means they beat on the top line and they beat on the bottom line for the quarter if we look at the last four quarters the company is being estimates for earnings in each of those course which is a very good sign that management knows exactly what they do and they can make appropriate guidance going out into the future makes me feel that i can trust them now their beats are not by much but they are beating the numbers so does the revenue earnings beat the last quarter justify that 13 increase in stock price well sort of and let me explain analysts in general were not optimistic on microns q1 and 2022 estimates in general many felt that the q4 2021 numbers were just an anomaly and that quarter microns revenue came in at over 8 billion which was equivalent to about a 40 percent increase over the previous year not only that was even more impressive is that their earnings were astonishingly 80 or 180 percent 180 percent higher than the previous year many analysts did not think micron can you know sustain these type of numbers q1 2022 numbers were not quite as good as q4s but they were not that far off the company is also guiding another 7.5 billion in revenue for q2 and earnings per share to come in around a dollar 90 cents per share management reaffirmed revenue and profits will be the biggest in history for 2022.
this all sounded quite good for investors and hedge funds so we saw a big uptick in buying over the past week however if you've been following micron you've been listening to what management is saying this should not be a surprise to any investor including myself in my opinion these are the type of investments that have the potential to make big gains as long as management executes for the current year analysts expect the company to generate earnings per share of about nine dollars and around eleven dollars and fifty cents for 2023 i think these estimates are quite conservative and micron has a good chance to be on both one risk or potential concern here is microns inventory the management discussed in their last quarterly earnings call that they are seeing an issue with supply chain issues among a lot of other companies in the market just not semi-conductors just like their customers are hurting for memory chips from micron micron is seeing some pain and getting some inventory in that goes into making their product if micron continues to see these impacted for the supply chains it could hurt their 2022 numbers however if this does happen i see this as a short-term issue and the revenue will just get pushed out into the future they won't be losing that revenue in my personal opinion another risk to this company is their capex so their capital expenditures have been quite high over the last couple years i expect that to continue to happen going into the future and free cash flow is cash from operations minus capex and historically at least over the last several years the free cash flow has not been that great because their capex has been fairly high almost even with their their cash from operations so they haven't seen a whole lot of free cash flow however what's happening is since their demand has gone for their memory chips they can charge more money this means that their free cash flow has increased substantially because of their high increase from revenue and their high margin increase as well so their pitiful free cash flow in the past has turned around with all these nice synergies and we're seeing some really good free cash flow and the company is returning that free cash flow in the case of dividends and share buybacks i expect micron to have their free cash flow flourish out in the future and shareholders will reap these benefits the question is when this when the demand for their products starts to slow down when that's going to happen they'll get you'll eventually see a pullback on price well that should be anytime soon and we certainly see synergies going through at least 2023 right now with the demand of 5g smartphones computers tons vehicles etc the demand for memory chip should hold for quite some time for me the investment thesis remains the same and nothing has changed management is consistent with their message demand for their product is still high their margins are expanding and their free cash flow is flourishing i have been adamant that stock is going to triple digits reaching over 100 over the next year currently sitting at 94.
if everything goes according to plan i expect to double my money and this stock and even potentially more but only time will tell i'd love to hear from you in the comment sections below what do you think about microns q1 earnings are you holding micron yourself are there other semiconductors in the market you like better than micron let me know in the comment section below and i will be sure to respond thanks for watching the video if you haven't hit that like button already please do so on the way out i will catch you on the other side take care and god bless
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