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first of all they try and predict the stock market that is a total waste of time no one can predict the stock market they try to predict interest rates if any would predict interest rates right three times in a row they'd be a billionaire concerned there's not that many billionaires on the planet neck in our predictions are a total waste alan greenspan is a very honest guy he would tell you that he can't break interest rates he can tell you what short rates he's going to do in the next six months try and stick them on what the long-term rate will be three years from now they'll say i don't have any ideas so how are you the investor supposed to be interest rates they had a federal reserve campaign i've had people call me up saying i think i'm buying the stock at three how much can i lose well again you may need a piece of paper for this but if your neighbor put 20 000 to the stock and you put twenty thousand dollars in free and it goes to zero you lose exactly the same amount of money everything and people say it's three how much can i lose well if you put a million dollars on it you can lose a million dollars this may be a reason researchers thought the fact that stock is three down from 100 doesn't mean you should uh buy it and in fact short sellers people that really make money in stocks they don't show at walmart they don't share home depot they're not sure the great companies johnson johnson they short stocks down from 80 to 70.
they'd like to short it at 16 or 22 but they they figured out at seven this company is going to go to zero and if they're selling short seven they're selling short six five and four at three and two at one and a quarter and you know what if you sell something short you need a buyer somebody has to buy the damn thing and you wonder who's buying this thing these people saying it's three how much lower can it go a lot of times people buy on the basis the stock has gone down this much you know how much further going to go down i remember when polaroid went from 130 to 100 people said here's this great company great record if it ever gets below 100 you know just buy every share you know and it did get below 100 a lot of people bought on that basis saying look it's not 135 to 100 it's not 95 what a buy within a year it was 18.
and this is kind of a no debt i mean this was just so overpriced it went down uh i did the same thing in my uh my first or second year fidelity kaiser industries have gone from 26 this year to 16. i said how much lower can it go it's 16. well it went to six it went to five it went to four and went to three there's something very wrong here because kaiser industries owns forty percent of kaiser steel they own forty percent of kai's aluminum they own thirty two percent guys of cement they own kaiser broadcast and then kaiser santa gravel engineers they own jeep they own business after business and they had no debt now i learned this very early this might be a breakthrough for some people it's very hard to go bankrupt if you don't have any debt it's tricky some people can approach that it's a it's a real achievement they had no debt and the whole company at three was telling it about 75 million that point it was equal to buying one boeing 747 i said there's something wrong with this company selling for 75 million i was a little premature at 16 but uh i said everything's fine and eventually this worked out and they what they did is they gave away all their shares to their shareholders they passed out shares and passed cement they passed their chairs and has aluminum they passed out their public shares and ties with steel they sold all the other businesses and you get about fifty dollars a share but if you didn't understand the company if you're just buying on the fact the stock had gone from 26 to 16 and then again 10 what would you do when it went to nine what would you do what went to eight what would you do it went to seven this is the problem that people have is they sell stocks because they didn't know why they bought it then it went down and they don't know what to do now it bothers me that people are very careful their money the public when they buy a refrigerator they get a consumer reports they buy a microwave oven they do that they ask people what's the best kind of radar range or what kind of car to buy they do research on apartments and they go to when they go on a trip to wyoming they get the mobile travel guide or california when they go to europe they get the michelin travel guide people will hear a tip on the bus on some stock they'll put half their life savings in it before sunset and they wonder why they lose money in the stock market and when they lose money they blame it on the institutions in program training that is garbage they didn't do any research they bought a piece of junk they didn't look at the balance sheet and that's what you get for it one rule you want to remember is the stock does not know you own it so don't get you know you have to understand it and say they're doing well and as long as they keep doing well my best stocks have been my fifth sixth seventh year i own them not my fifth sixth seventh day the important thing is you can't get too attached to a stock you have to understand there's a company behind it you have to deal with the stock and say i understand the company that they deteriorate the fundamental slip you have to say goodbye to it i spend zero time thinking about what's happening in russia or china i just deal with facts so i don't deal with what's happening in congress or what's going to happen in the future i just deal with what's happening in the economy and what's happening the companies i call you
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