저자: Kevin · 외국인
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6월 ADP 고용 49.7만명으로 예상(22.5만)을 크게 상회, 소기업 중심 고용 강세. 실업수당 청구는 대체로 보합. 임금상승률은 둔화(2021년 10월 이후 최저)로 임금-물가 악순환 우려는 낮다고 봄. 강한 고용은 금리인상 기대를 높이지만 경기침체 회피 신호로 해석. 다만 여름 여행 수요로 근원물가 상방 위험 존재, 8월~10월 물가지표가 관건. 연준 인상 기대는 2차 인상 가능성 반영 중.
다듬은 글
well well well another jobs insane surprise it is a one day of course before the official BLS jobs report but we have a private jobs report that likes to give us heads up as well as unemployment claims and continuing claims and jolt's numbers we like all of this data so that we can try to understand what's going on in the economy the joltz data coming out later today is expected to come in at 9.9 million but what did we just get we just got continuing claims continuing claims are a sign of how many people were unemployed we're looking for work and when the number goes down it's a sign that they got a job which is designed the economy is still willing to absorb people who maybe lost their job and are now looking for a new job we were expecting survey says 1.737 million continuing claims we actually got 1.720 so a miss again on continuing claims not only did we miss on continuing claims though but last week we revised down the number by another nine thousand so in other words strong jobs Market however we did see initial jobless claims tick up a little bit to 248 000 versus the survey of 245 000 as reported just minutes ago that 3 000 beat though was offset by 3 000 reduction last week so really that's like six of one half dozen the other no change there I'll say initial job was claims basically no change continuing claims a little bit lower great but what did we just get with ADP a blowout an absolute blowout so listen to this we were expecting 225 000 jobs to be added in the month of June what did we get look on screen now it's a fat coupon code for the shadowing experience with meet Kevin linked down below or the courses oh it's actually the ADP report 497 000 change in private employment job creation surged in June oh no oh no oh no this is my fear led by consumer facing services oh no that's your corn remember Kevin's fear right now Kevin's fear is that people are going to travel so much more than the seasonal adjustments are going to take into account we're going to end up seeing core inflation rise and people are going to lose their behinds freaking out thinking inflation is reanimating just because people are traveling more and spending more on Leisure and hospitality anyway Leisure and Hospitality trade and transportation education and Health Services showed strong gains still the market was fragmented with Manufacturing tech and finance showing declines oops oh dear lord okay so where are the numbers concentrated wow wow that's actually very interesting so it's the small businesses here under 250 employees that are adding like nutso 160 000 for small we just hired first time ever by the way never had this before first time ever just hired an in-house attorney uh they're on I don't know like day like eight or whatever uh and uh it's uh it's so cool like it's awesome uh like it it's like who do you want to sue it doesn't cost you anything I'm just kidding that's not the intention right that we have compliance purposes and stuff but but it is kind of cool anyway so uh because ordinarily like if you let's say you are to get sued you're like crap I gotta hire an attorney and it's expensive and stuff it's like now it makes no difference anyway 162 000 for small 137 a thousand for uh 20 to 49 employees 171 000 for uh 50 to 249.
small increase here for 250 to 4.99 how does that apply to large uh large negative 8 000. wow this is actually really interesting yeah the big companies are not hiring as much so consider that takeaway here for a moment that's kind of incredible actually so what you have is you have uh companies oh oops uh Co over 250 employees not adding I'm gonna say not adding because you have a slight plus here and a minus on the other I think that offsets so really over 250 employees you're not adding it's the under 250k adding like a nutso which makes sense because that's going to be more of your your restaurants uh your hotels and uh you know all your your uh related Hospitality Services your waverunner rentals your skydiving rentals you know you're oh man it makes me want to go to the beach of Florida so probably it's so warm and beautiful there anyway stuck in California uh so what do we got in terms of a specific sectors here manufacturing hit you've got uh trade Transportation utilities up 90 000.
this is actually where we also saw some of that CPI Heat that was actually the biggest one of the biggest contributor of uh of CPI Payne over here then you've got look at that Leo oh Leisure and Hospitality 232 000. that one sector alone is bigger than the uh 232 oh sorry we were looking at 225 000.
that's nuts um we're looking at 225 000. we literally beat that solely with Leisure and Hospitality some broccoli Bob that's an interesting name it's an alliteration says who do you want to sue uh nobody unblock people no no never uh anyway so um okay let's keep looking here uh I want to see the wage data though so waged out of wage that a widget so let's get the wage data yeah mostly because when we look at the wage data we can see how we're doing with any fears of a wage spiral which we don't want uh no come on we're the wage gains quite interesting they're actually not indicated usually they're they're right at the bottom of this report so I will continue to hunt for that anyway let me see what Wall Street is saying for this and what this is going to do to our five-year break-evens uh it's probably going to drive yields higher it's probably going to reiterate the hike which in my opinion does mean you could have a potential sell down in stocks but honestly it's a good thing it just says we're that much further away from a recession like anybody who says oh I got it anybody who says this is bad wants the economy to go into a recession or something it doesn't make sense this is absolutely fantastic uh yeah five-year break even just ticked up a little bit so you're at 2.22 one tenth of a percent on an uptick here not a big deal uh whatsoever so that's okay uh as far as oh yeah here we go okay I'm getting the wage data now as far as the let's look at the FED term rate expectations that way we could see if the Market's trying to price in any more rate hikes uh beyond what we already have price so the FED term rate right now sits at a Juicy and Delicious oh yeah okay we just shot up from 5.35 to 5.41 so the way that works is you have to think that another 25 BP hike would put us at about 5.37 anything above 5.37 which is the midpoint between five and a quarter and 5.5 anything above 5.37 implies a second rate hike so this means we are now starting to price in a second rate hike this Honestly though who cares like another 25 here 25 there I don't care as long as we're not going into a recession it just doesn't matter uh you did just see another three percentage points added to the chance of a 25 BP hike for July you're basically confirmed now uh and you're still stable ah no you've added about four percent to the chance of a second hike in September yeah okay they shaved off the the stay stable at five okay so now let's look at wages so in the ADP report we have here it is okay we're going to compare this to the prior report because we want to see what's going on with wage gains so this is very important so we want to compare to the May report ADP report for May last month uh that was let's see there's the May release that's the jaw I release uh okay well let's just for now quickly compared to two months ago we'll be able to see a little bit more transition if we go two months back okay so I have both up here so this here is now and we're gonna flip between the two ready for this job stayers six point four percent go back two months job stayers six point seven percent so continue to climb job Changers you're at uh 11.2 percent and you were at 13.2 percent two months ago okay good and what about uh Leisure and Hospitality you were at 8.9 now you're at oh thank goodness 7.9 you want to see that keep going down other services 6.3 uh was 6.5 good education went down professional business services six two that went up you actually had a little bit of a sticky push here I don't want to see that wait no no sorry hold on a sec did I do that right no no it went down one okay good it went down one basis point I was I was flipped backwards there for a second my bad okay good we want to see them all Trend down you've got Financial activity stable information at six percent uh yeah that went down that one uh trade yep all of them went down construction 6.7 versus six nine five nine versus six two six four versus six eight yeah this is fantastic so uh yep there it is uh pay gains slowed again in June slowest paid pace of growth since October of 2021.
this is fantastic yeah this I mean it's great of course your the market is going to initially price in some concern because it means rates are going up right it means it means you're you have to start pricing in your next rate increase but broadly you have to look at this way we've priced in multiple more rate hikes from what we expected at the beginning of the year we didn't think at the beginning of the year we were going to get to five percent at least marketston then we got hot data in January we got volatility in March because of that along with the banking crisis even before the banking crisis in February you had stocks sell down as we had to price in higher rates so initially when you get strong economic data the first algorithmic response is crap bad that means more rate hikes that means higher cost of capital that means squeezing the economy more that means j-pow is basically coming up to you going squeezing a little harder of course of course the Market's going to turn red that is the natural reaction of yay you know more rate hikes but you have to remember this is actually really good because it tells you the economy is that much further away from recession the further away we are from recession the better here's uh what is this Logan commentary let's listen to this because to give it a little more time she's concerned whether inflation will return to Target in a sustainable And Timely way she says the pace of Labor Market rebalancing remains slower than she expected and that forecasters expected she's there's no indication she said of a deterioration of the labor market she's skeptical and this is important Logan comes to the Dallas fed having run the New York fed monetary policy death so she was steeped in these issues of crises and financial crisis first no indication about large lagged effects from prior rate hike she says basically it's already in the market or in the economy right now already had a fair amount of time to see the overall effect she says housing markets looks to have bottomed uh and housing rebound could cause upside risk to inflation the outlook for above Target inflation she says and the strong labor market could calls for more active monetary policy and this is important tighter credit conditions she's judged are unlikely to offset the need for higher rates and again that issue we talked about the rebuilding of the treasury general account by a trillion dollars not creating liquidity pressure she says so the three of course not stayed the fed's hand lagged effects tighter credit conditions rebuilding the treasury account she's dismissing those guys you just told us she's not on board with that she wants to see in the data look I told you it was a story it was something the data explains it and and I know we got a great great guy who's going to talk about this stuff coming up yep and that is meet Kevin so bottom line uh there's some questions here should we be concerned about this is it by the dip obviously your personal allocations totally up to you right but my take is that this the market that we're in is likely to see almost all dips bought by institutions in fact that's what we just talked about earlier uh on the channel is that institutions are under allocated stocks and so you're creating a floor that when you get dips you get buying pressure because of either fomo or under allocation or the opportunity cost even though bond yields are high and they continue to rise part of that is actually a cause of people dumping those bonds driving yields up and then getting to stocks so but again of course the Market's initial reaction has to be down because algorithmically that's the way it works if Fed rate hike bets go up Market go down that's how it's worked for the last 18 months and that's been the easiest trade ever but consistently what's happened over the last six months is that we don't care anymore about the rate hikes what we actually care about is avoiding a recession and avoiding uh an earnings recession to the extent or more than the extent that we've already priced in an earnings recession you don't want a recession these numbers today say no recession they also say no wage price spiral they are a red flag for the potential that core inflation ends up surprising up because of more than expected spending on Leisure Hospitality hotels flights and all that crap but that will be temporary that will be bad news between basically uh early August and mid-october that's when you get your inflation reports for July through September that's probably when you get your your potential bad news you get past that now you get past the the summer travel season and if inflation continues to Trend down and there's no recession or it's delayed substantially it's all great news again I'm not trying to like put on like rose-colored glasses here I'm like people like whoa how could it be good news we're not going into a recession that is good news like that's not rose-colored glasses it's good news you don't want to go into a recession so uh you know it's it's a good thing this this report absolutely does not point to a recession which is fantastic uh so I think it's great uh now by the way um I want to just throw this in here really quick because I know some of you have been curious about this MP material MP material emailed me a little angry yesterday because I tweeted about them uh and so I wanted to address that and uh just put it out there so yesterday uh China talked about banning certain Rare Earth uh exports that are needed in chips to America it's basically like a Tit for Tat slap back at America and so I tweeted the following how ironic MP materials jumping on Beijing restricting exports of rare earth metals yet ninety percent of MP materials Revenue comes from a Chinese company so people are investing in the United States MP materials thinking they're getting U.S rare Earths yet those rare Earths are just going to China anyway okay and then I I tweeted this which is my the receipt which is literally from their q1 earnings report of this year that's their words not mine as of March 31st 2023 was a company's Prince was the company's principal customer and accounted for more than 90 percent of product sales so anyway they emailed me and they're like dude come on man like that's phase one and and when we get to phase two We're Not Gonna sell ninety percent of our stuff to China anymore and I'm like cool how about a factory tour or like a mine tour and an interview and we could talk about it and they're like yeah we could do that after we transition to phase two they're like okay cool when are you guys transitioning and they said we're not ready yet we'll let you know like okay so in other words for the time being you are going to still sell ninety percent of your stuff to China and that's okay but like don't get mad at me for pointing it out I think they're mad because I'm I'm pointing out what is literally on their disclosures like I'm reading their report like don't get mad at me for that is what it is but if you're gonna say like hey like that's gonna change when we get to phase two fantastic that that's that's great that is good news uh but you're not there yet so anyway wanted to add that in uh but again bottom line all this recession stuff Kick the Can down the road recession it's a good thing Now goal here says Kevin I work for the largest trucking company that's going on strike it does it rhyme with UPS anyway uh the raises are huge what we get other trucking companies follow have to make a deal by Og one like how huge are we talking here are we talking like like six percent wait wait wait wait wait wait wait actually are we talking trade Transportation utilities are we talking 6.3 percent
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