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테슬라 2분기 인도량이 컨센서스를 상회해 Goldman이 목표가를 248→275로 상향. 다만 Goldman의 선제 하향 등 시장 추종성 지적. 이익 성장률(EPS 약 32%) 양호하나 2024~2025년 capex 대비 영업현금흐름 격차 확대로 자금조달(머니레이즈) 가능성 경고. BYD는 판매량이 빠르지만 순이익률(약 4%)이 테슬라(11~13%)보다 낮다고 비교. 단기적으로 258달러 지지 확인이 중요하다는 기술적 견해, 전면 매도는 아직 아니라는 입장.
다듬은 글
also obviously Tesla beat massively yesterday we talked a lot about earnings catalysts and beat a four Tesla yesterday but we need to break down the revisions from Goldman Sachs how nice how nice Goldman Sachs that right before deliveries you all downgrade your outlook for Tesla so you get a Goldman downgrade right before the deliveries and you actually cut your your expectations for the stock and you cut your expectation for the price of Tesla and then as soon as the deliveries come out with a big beat you happen to say you know what we're actually now going to raise our price Target from 248 to now 275.
it's almost like they're constantly chasing the market trying to do what the market is actually doing with stocks and how the market is reacting now we don't only want to talk about this Goldman piece here we'll briefly go through this but I want to talk about byd after this uh and so we'll get into byd in just a moment but first let's just take a look at some of the commentary that Goldman here provides on Tesla as to why they're increasing uh their price target for Tesla Tesla delivered about 466 vehicles and produced 480k Vehicles the preliminary s or or these these numbers rather were significantly above the visible Alpha consensus data at 450.
Bloomberg can consensus at 448 uh and Goldman Sachs estimates at 4 45. model 3 and why deliveries in the quarter were up about eight percent quarter on quarter and 88 is seven percent year over year keep in mind that is comparing to the whole of 2022 when Shanghai was oopsie dupsies uh and so implications and Analysis we consider this to be a strong report as volumes came in well ahead of consensus in Goldman estimates we had expected less of an increase in June vehicle deliveries compared to past quarters because Tesla has been in the process of transitioning to a more even delivery schedule throughout the quarter in order to ease Logistics issues right if you have a big run a big ramp at the end of a quarter you start running out of ships and trains and Freight cars to transport your cars but the report suggest that Tesla was able to close the quarter more strongly than we in the consensus had expected We Believe Tesla could provide directional color on Regional demand trends when it reports results that would be uh on uh June 19th we'll be getting Tesla earnings so of course we'll be covering those and then what is interesting is uh there is some uh talks circulating now that uh Tesla is is considering cutting potentially prices at least in the US and Canada uh or potentially have already cut prices just here at the beginning of July which some argue could be a way of continuing to facilitate this uh balanced sales push especially since they just had an end of the first half so big sales push and now create another reason to get people in the store with another price cut though a lot of folks were like wait I thought Tesla was going to be done with price cut so maybe we haven't quite hit the bottom yet for Tesla price Cuts in terms of vehicle Cuts but certainly feels like we're getting closer anyway looking at Goldman Here We Believe Tesla could provide directional color right we talked about that we expect investor Focus heading into the next earnings report to be on uh gross margins duh that's what we talked about yesterday as well gross margin is going to be the top one but personally in my opinion the two to really focus on are going to be cash flow and a potential for a money raise a lot of expenses going in over at Tesla let's look at some of the estimates that they have over here so these are the estimates for the balance sheet they they actually see Tesla's balance sheet Rising very very strongly here into 20 uh throughout the rest of 2023 sitting around that 21 mil Bill level where we are now but by 2024 getting to about 33 billion dollars in cash and potentially as much as 53 billion dollars in cash and cash equivalents by 2025.
this is sort of your Goldman forecast right here uh and then as far as cash flow cash flow from operations they think will be positive a substantially still throughout 2023 that's why I think you have a negative Catalyst here because this is the tightest right here if you actually look it's much larger for 2024 in other words the gap between capex and cash flow from operations much larger in 2024 much larger in 2025.
I mean here you've got about a 12 13 billion dollar difference here you've got about a 20 billion dollar difference you only have a difference right here of roughly uh five and a half-ish billion dollars so you're getting pretty pretty tight over here in terms of that cash flow that's why I think the money rate is possible anyway in terms of earnings per share Goldman Sachs looks like they're revising some of their uh yeah they actually are their last earnings per share was uh was below for for their non-diluted was below three dollars and they've actually bumped that to about 324.
Wall Street consensus right now is around 350 for 2023 and with this deliveries be we might actually end up beating 350 in EPS for the year which would be great for the stock but you could absolutely see a strong growth here of earnings forecasts if you look at just EPS growth alone which goes into our PEG ratio calculation if you go 469 divided by 324 looking about a 44.7 EPS growth rate 6.2 divided by 4.69 puts you about a 32 EPS growth rate I've been using around 30 for EPS growth so this is great uh this is very very good yeah so I like to see this from uh Goldman Sachs these uh these revisions up and uh these uh uh you know again potentially a red flag right here an Achilles heel That Wall Street doesn't seem to be paying attention to a potential negative for free cash flow we'll see but uh this is a this is your vision up here again I think you get a lot of these companies they just revise their price targets up as the stocks going up which is just ludicrous anyway then we got to talk about uh byd and it's uh relation to uh Tesla over here because byd also reported some pretty phenomenal numbers before I do that I just want to be very very clear because it there's like this constant confusion uh in the just stock community and it like people legit do not understand what the word annualize means they literally think you have to compound you do not compound annualize does not mean compound so what I mean by that is if you look at q1 and you compare that to Q2 you get 10 growth that is the speed at which growth is going right now if somebody said oh Tesla's growing every quarter at ten percent then you compound then you have to use exponents to calculate your you know how much the company is going to grow by the year but if somebody wants to annualize if we maintain that speed how much is the company going to grow the answer is very simple it's 40 you just multiply by four that's what it means to annualize that's why the words are different annualize multiply compound exponents is very very simple but apparently people the comments just can't get it through their heads and I think I've made this argument like a million and a half times and it's extremely exhausting but I hope if you're watching this you realize there's a huge difference between annualizing and compounding annualize you just multiply you're just looking at a snapshot of growth the reason for this can be very simply understood to say that look if in q1 you add a hundred dollars of sales and in Q2 you have one hundred and ten dollars of sales you are growing at that line compounded growth implies an exponential curve but we have no data to suggest that we're able to imply an exponential curve all we have is we went up 10 from q1 to Q2 that doesn't mean we're going to compound again from Q2 to Q3 is that pace that's the pace we're growing at any anyway uh compounding implies growth where you shouldn't imply growth and if you compound uh you are probably over evaluating growth now that doesn't mean the company is not going to outperform uh but it's just not what annualizing means anyway rant on that over now let's get into uh this uh some of these byd numbers here so uh Chinese EV maker byd report another impressive growth month here now uh they sold almost twice as many electric vehicles as they did last year and a lot of folks are using this as an argument to suggest aha byd is way ahead of Tesla keep in mind that when you Analyze byd This is a company that first of all is selling battery electric vehicles that is pure electric vehicles but they're also selling hybrids they're selling a lot of hybrids something to consider so for example if we break down some of the the actual numbers here what you can find here is the total number of vehicles sold here uh actually uh yeah which includes plug-ins and uh battery electric vehicles this is on a monthly basis this shows you returning to growth at byd still obviously very good but do keep in mind that byd sells vehicles that are substantially less expensive than Tesla so it makes sense that growth rates might appear somewhat higher at byd a lot of folks question like hey well byd is growing so much isn't that bad for Tesla they're two totally different markets cheaper hybrids on one hand some smaller battery electric vehicles and more expensive Vehicles over with Tesla something to keep in mind uh and so as you can see here Barons breaks that down look at that byd is 90 is faster than Tesla 70 but Tesla makes more expensive Vehicles it's easier to sell less expensive cars and then of course you have you know pure electric vehicles versus uh the hybrids and we can actually break apart those numbers so uh byd in the last quarter here there we go they sold 251 000 vehicles in just June which is pretty good it's somewhat close to about half as many vehicles as Tesla sold but if we break that down into hybrids and non-hybrids they actually sold 128 000.
uh what do we have here this is in June okay this is just the June number so for June 128 000 Vehicles just EV and then they sold 123 000 hybrids so you're almost at a 50 50 uh change there last year or or split between the two last year they sold about 900 on 11 000 pure electric vehicles which works out to about 76 000 per month on average for 2022.
which then we can multiply or divide rather and find out their growth rate and you can see that is a very impressive pure electric vehicle growth rate of 68 so no shade off byd I will say byd's numbers are are pretty good you you've got a you've got a company that's actually selling a lot more Vehicles again cheaper Vehicles the margins are nowhere near as fantastic as what you have at Tesla but then again margins are also under pressure at both ends both discounting byd does have a dealer relationship so you do tend to get dealer discounts rather than headline discounts like you do a Tesla something very important by the way a lot of people forget about that whether by accident or whatever but it's important to consider that when Tesla sells directly their price decreases or modifications are very very transparent whereas when you're working with a dealer model price changes are very Arcane you're just getting more of a discount conveniently off of uh MSRP or otherwise so something to keep in mind when it comes to the dealership model now when it comes to the financials for byd the the company is very robust obviously you know Warren Buffett is somebody who's a big fan of uh investing in byd that we've seen him reduce some of his stay in byd people still refer to the company as uh buff it backed but anyway uh they're they're a gross profit margin uh sits somewhere around 17 which Tesla's kind of starting to knock on the door of that direction uh the byd's gross profit margin in 2019 was 14.8 went up to 17.8 down to 13 during the pandemic 1779.
it's really stable somewhere around 17 to 17 and a half Tesla just hit a low of just about just a little over 19 this next earnings report will really tell you how much of a difference there is between Tesla and byd byd is still at 17 and Tesla Falls to 16 or 17 well then byd is doing pretty dang well right however uh byd on net brings about 4.1 percent uh to the bottom line and uh this compares to Tesla again with about 19 on uh on on gross but Tesla brings almost three times as much to the bottom line between 11 to 13 coming to the bottom line compared to byd at only about four percent so even though gross margin is getting closer 17 WYD 19 ish at Tesla that net bottom line number is still 11 to 12 to 13 percent of Tesla you're only at four percent at byd so do consider that in your evaluation of the comparison of the companies both of them are expected to grow quite well earnings are expected to grow at over 30 percent uh for Tesla uh for probably the next five years going forward which is fantastic uh is something to keep in mind uh byd is uh is also expecting to grow earnings in excess of 30 some start are arguing that their growth could actually be a little bit higher than Tesla's because they sell so many hybrids at maybe closer to 35 percent so something to keep in mind for the difference between byd and Tesla but look don't get me wrong it's always going to be competition uh and uh that's just uh that's just an age of the beast but both of them are doing well and I quite frankly think both can continue to do well uh Barons talks about how a price war broke out between EVs and petrol vehicles in China and uh that heavy discounts are really trying to Spur the Chinese consumer to buy it's another problem potentially facing mainland China is byd is trying to get out of China because they realize Chinese consumers slowing down when I say out of China I mean they're trying to expand outside of China to also sell to like the European markets it would be very interesting to see byd cars in America but uh we shall see now when I started this uh segment somebody had asked this morning uh a question that I wanted to get back to they say do you think Tesla's uh price spike will be temporary and bad margins and a potential raise and an Elon selling tweet it will affect the stock so Elon didn't suggest selling I actually think his tweet was reverse psychology I think his tweet of hey avoid margin you know is is a bearish tweet but imagine if we got bearish numbers that would be horrible you know the SEC would probably complain that he's providing Insider information and there'd be lawsuits again he did the opposite I think on purpose because he knew what the numbers were so gave a bearish tweet to purposely just mess with people who want to believe that you know he's trying to Insider trade or whatever he literally did the opposite here but as far as uh the margins problem yeah margin and raise are going to be an issue I think the stronger of a a hold Tesla has on pricing today stock pricing today will be very good going into earnings because take a look for example at uh the TA for Tesla what you really want is you want to solidify this 268 Fibonacci today we're going to solidify that I don't think we're going to make it to you know basically your 300 level which is about your 295 296.
I don't think we're going to make it to that level but I think what you want is confirmation that we're going to stay above 258. any excess above 258 I think you could give up at earnings but the goal is that you don't break through 258 after earnings again the goal is that you stay in this range right here and if you stay in this range after earnings and after that earnings negative Catalyst goes away especially if the earnings Catalyst isn't that bad I think there's a chance you could end up breaking over 300 after earnings if it happens before you know you could slip right back after earnings but the more it goes up before earnings the better uh because you're just creating more insulation for for yourself so a little bit of my thoughts uh here on Goldman Sachs byd uh and uh and pricing for Tesla I do not think that you're at anywhere near the levels yet on Tesla where you would argue oh it's you know it's it's time to fully dump Tesla or whatever I think really that that time will come in the future uh but I don't think that time is now yet obviously not personalized Financial advice here I don't know your situation but that's just uh Market commentar
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