저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라 2분기 인도량 46.6만대(전년비 +83%, 단 2022년 2분기 상하이 봉쇄 기저효과 감안 시 1분기 대비 연율 약 41% 성장으로 월가 예상 25~30% 상회). 생산량 47.9만대로 재고 소진 국면. 7/19 실적 발표가 핵심 촉매이며 마진(16~19%) 하회 시 악재, 잉여현금흐름(FCF) 반기 미만 감소 가능성 제기. 자금조달(증자 50~100억달러) 가능성을 언급하나 시총 대비 작아 부담은 제한적이라 주장. 자동 자막 기준이며 실적 전 증자 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
well Elon Musk is back at it again with reverse psychology as we get Tesla delivery numbers on Friday Omar from the whole Mars catalog on Twitter posted I plan to increase my stake in Tesla in the coming weeks and months to which Elon Musk responded and said please advise people to be wary of margin loans Tesla has always been a highly has always had high variability or has been a high variability stock my goodness often with no obvious Rhyme or Reason we are confident about long-term value creation but cannot control the manic depressive nature of the stock market this initially was seen as bearish but was it though when I first read the comment I thought to myself hmm if that was bearish think about this and then we're going to get into the delivery numbers and some of the catalysts for earnings okay but if Elon Musk with after hours for trading of the stocks still open on Friday when he tweeted this if it was indeed a bearish comment then that would almost be seen as insider trading because if deliveries came in bad right because you make a bear comment and then two days go by and then stock tanks let's say if deliveries came in poorly then that could be potentially seen as insider trading but if you make a bearish comment and then two days later really good news comes out what you've actually done is played a little game of reverse psychology hey look I I told people not to buy the stock okay I I would never pump a stock I told people not to buy it as a matter of fact it's kind of a potential Elon Musk line right I actually replied to that tweet and said signed the SEC appointed Handler for Elon Musk because as we know after the 420 Saga Elon Musk is supposed to have somebody who monitors every single one of his tweets and I thought that is the perfect thing to do right before good news leave a bearish comment so you could reverse psychology the SEC man look I'm cautioning folks the stock just goes up it's I I'm not pumping it it's just the stock doing its Insanity it's no Rhyme or Reason for this kind of brilliant so what just happened uh yes well it is a course lecture filming uh completion day so we're posting some lectures tonight which is really exciting new lectures coming out uh okay but what we actually got were deliveries we got some pretty incredible numbers here so the market was expecting 400 and about 45 000 vehicles to be sold by Tesla this is approximate some estimates were around 448 some were a little lower but nobody was really higher than about 455.
and uh what we got was actually something I felt like maybe I should have talked about a little bit more but it's not attempted to be a Pitch here but I do have a Tesla affiliate link when people go to metkevin.com task lab you could actually see how many people I've referred to Tesla and like 30 days ago that was 98 and granted I've pitched it a few times with some of the tax credits but that's shot up to I think it's it's over like 130 now or something crazy like that and I thought to myself wow it really seems like that link is functioning a lot more this quarter than it previously had and for me that was a little bit of a leading indicator like all right whatever the drama is I'm just gonna hoddle through these delivery numbers because really I'm in this one for the long term anyway but uh personally I'm like do I really want to trim before deliveries number delivery numbers as they secure the 7 500 tax credit on the model 3 and the potential another 7 500 you can get in California which is like 15 grand in tax credits it's insane yes it's income restricted but still like if you were a sole proprietor let's say an entrepreneur and you had a money losing year because you got a startup or whatever you get 15 grand off a Tesla Model 3 how nuts is that anyway uh it's crazy so what do you got over here well what we actually got were deliveries that were quite remarkable we got deliveries that came in at 466 140.
that's actually up 83 percent year over year now that's actually a bit of a dangerous number what I think uh this is a little bit misleading to quote or why I think it's misleading is this actually refers to Q2 of 2022 and you might remember Shanghai was basically shut down for the majority of the second quarter it seemed like that was a pretty bad quarter for Tesla and comparing to that is like comparing to a whole right I mean when you have a chart that goes up and then you have a chart that goes down and even chart that goes up again when you're here and you're comparing to the whole obviously that distance that we just drew right here that x value is going to be greater than if you compared to let's say just before the whole which we'll call the why well the Y in this case would be q1 2022 so what I did is I compared to q1 just to understand this you know the magnitude of this growth and while Q2 had growth of 83 percent year over year if we go back and compare basically 15 months ago to q1 we actually get about 50.3 percent that's because they had about 310 000 deliveries that's pretty remarkable the fact that we're basically back to now that 50 growth rate which is remarkable again you know not no no shade here on Tesla at all now what we could do as well is we could get the quarter over quarter comparison we could just look up really quick the exact number of the q1 deliveries for 2023 which those were 422 and then we can kind of create an annualized rate of growth here right so we have 422 875 that was your q1 number we just have four six six one four oh so we're going to divide these and that's going to be our growth rate quarter over quarter and if we multiply this by four x by 4.
what you're doing is you're creating an annual growth rate of sales not production but if I divide these four two two eight seven five I get uh 10.23 percent times four I'm at about a growth rate of 40.92 percent much better than what Wall Street is currently estimating of really 25 to 30 percent so this right here that spread is actually really good for the stock if they can hold it up right because if that's wall Street's expectation and that's what we're actually growing at well then that means you you have some Alpha there right this is uh this is return above Market expectations which would be your Alpha okay great that's why we want to seek Alpha right hence the website okay so that's phenomenal uh these are really really good delivery numbers production numbers came in at 479.7 and we so again still a little bit above the 466 but that's old news now we are producing more than we're selling at this point initially that was blamed on a lack of like trains and Freight cars uh now International Freight really is in a freight recession and they're kind of begging for deliveries so I don't suspect this is as much of an issue anymore now but uh we're just we're growing production slightly faster but honestly they're relatively close so I'm okay with that now what are the catalysts that we really want to pay attention to going forward well obviously you need to mark your calendar for July 19th uh now before I talk about July 19th I do want to mention that link down below is a free newsletter that we're doing now this is totally new it's a hundred percent free it's just a little snippet of a daily motivation for you and it's all just based on my perspective it's my perspective my ideas rules principles for Life try it out if you want click the link down below again there's there's no cost to it uh we uh we just want to always provide more value and we think it's a great thing and the feedback initially like I personally don't love email lists unless they're like really good but the feedback we've been getting has been incredible people are replying to these every single day and I'm reading the replies I can't respond all of them but I'm reading the replies I'm like wow people actually really like these I I'm blown away I never knew people actually liked email lists anyway so I linked it down below in the description you can click on it there okay so what's July 19th well it's earnings day so July 19th is earnings day for Tesla this is uh this is a obviously an important Catalyst I want to talk about things we're going to be looking for uh for earnings I did have a question that came up though hey a lot of people complaining about Twitter with the rate limiting for messaging is that going to affect Tesla stock in short no quite frankly most practical users do not get rate limited this is only you know trending because there's maybe a half of one percent of users who abuse the system and and basically run AI to scrape data from Twitter and that's not what it's designed for you're supposed to pay for that and hence they have rate limiting do I actually think that is going to affect the revenues at Twitter No do I think that bad revenues that Twitter could affect Tesla stock and again again in the future if Elon has to sell absolutely do I think rate limiting has an impact on that no great so now earnings what are the big catalysts okay well they're going to be the Catalyst of what everybody talks about and they're going to be the Catalyst that I think actually matter so everyone and their mom is going to talk about margin and let's just put it this way anything under 19 percent is bad if uh like their estimates going as low as 16 so you've kind of got this range 16 to 19 obviously the lower the worse because your EPS is just going to tank here what would be fantastic is getting a two in the front again so if we can get anything above a two that would be very very good however it could be offset by two big problems that I believe may be coming to Tesla and that is going to be your cash flow issue which uh last quarter fell to under half a billy which is still pretty good for a company that's expanding as much it is but you know consider what you have you've got Shanghai expansions you've got uh Nevada expansions you've got Texas and Berlin you've got uh Northeast Mexico and then potentially future announcements here of of other gigafactors this is insane these are so many things going on at once and it's actually what Tesla should be doing uh you know you should remember if you've been watching my videos for a while now I've always talked about the idea of like look once you figure out the gigafactory model put them around the world Elon Musk has famously just recently been to countries like India and France teasing new gigafactories coming to those areas Elon Musk does not like the phrase copy and paste because he sees each Giga as having a priority I respect that but I'm a big fan of expanding what they should be doing is investing it's like Intel dump money into doing what is good for the future of your company you want to see investment unless it's investment like what and and I know I piss people off when I say it but I just want to be transparent okay look we can still have coffee together we can still have a beer together maybe uh I don't like meta I don't like Facebook because I think they're throwing money down the drain of this this virtual reality stuff I think that's 10 years down the road quite frankly I think Tess uh Apple is is already five years ahead of of meta in terms of technology and I think the money they throw into reality Labs is a waste of money and so in my opinion I don't like investing in companies that are throwing research and development and fixed investments into things I don't believe in whereas with Tesla I'm like of course I believe in the Cyber truck and uh the the solar energy division energy by the way solar like if you're looking for a weak part of the market right now solar and face you know these kind of companies anyway those will rebound and people are gonna be like man I wish somebody told me to bang the deeper and stealer hashtag not personalized Financial advice obviously financial advisor and run an actively managed ETF and havyway all that said uh I believe in what Tesla's throwing money at the problem is you could end up going flat or negative here in terms of cash flow any negative here will be driven by a margin Miss so if you get like a 16 margin you're going to be negative free cash flow and they don't actually have as much cash as people say people like they have 20 billion dollars on the balance sheet are you literally just reading one line of the balance sheet then because if you look at the bills they have they've got like 23 billion dollars in bills it's kind of like if you're at a desk and it's like look I got 20 billion dollars I'm rich dude you have 23 billion dollars of bills you're upside down bro oh well at least we're making money well I don't know are you right that's the point so we're gonna be looking at the cash flow number specifically the free cash flow number I've been referring to the free cash flow number here going from to under half a bill and then potentially negative free cash flow just takes out the capital goods Investments uh it's just you have to subtract that from the next line of the cash flow statement we do that kind of stuff by the way every day in the course member live streams where we're analyzing in detail various different companies uh whether it's companies that just reported on earnings or otherwise it's really good and you get an archive of fundamental analysis that I think is super high quality and has been a very good leading indicator for a lot of stock movements lately which we've been very excited by so anyway um what is the next Catalyst well obviously margin free cash flow I would say this is probably priority number one uh this however is probably number one shocker uh and then I I like followed by a close second shocker would be a raise I really think this is likely and who knows maybe what we talked about earlier with Elon is is exactly what elon's teasing here but if they do a money raise I think people initially are just going to lose their mind but it wouldn't be on like it wouldn't be surprising for Tesla to raise five to ten billion dollars uh with the stock where it is because you know it's it's at a nice much nicer level than where it has been much of the last year and uh you know if you consider the market cap of Tesla right now it's at 820 billion dollars even if they raised 10 Billy you shouldn't be too nervous about it like is it really a reason to dump the stock because you're worried they're going to do a raise that would represent 1.2 percent of the market cap the stock tends to move down more than that so you could see a five percent downward movement but with these delivery numbers honestly you'll probably be up more than what you you would be down following a raise Tesla might actually be smart to announce the raise before earnings because think about it usually what happens is you get the delivery numbers so it's good news for the stock stock goes up then you get earnings that's when you get margin and free cash flow and future forecast stock usually goes down so when would the best time be to raise in my opinion right before earnings uh so I think it's coming I think it's coming within the next year almost certainly but I'm okay I'm prepared for that and I'm not afraid of that I'm willing to huddle the stock through that again I think it'll be relatively nominal compared to the market cap of the company and again the reason I say this is just so when it happens you're not like oh my God they're dumping on retail what is this no this is this is totally normal and you as an investor providing that liquidity for Tesla to do that is enabling Tesla to build more factories it's the whole point it's the whole point of the stock market I really think people forget what the point of the stock market is people think the point of the stock market is for you to make money that can happen if you play it correctly that can happen but the point of the stock market is actually to provide liquidity for a company it creates a Marketplace for small slivers of ownership stake in their company which can generate money for them and it also helps them compensate their employees and their employees feel good when the stock goes up and blah blah blah blah so check out the newsletter in the description link down below thank you very much for watching and see in the next one good luck and
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