Charlie Munger warns of inflation, bolsters Apple and Chevron

요약 보기

찰리 멍거는 인플레이션을 매우 심각한 장기 위험으로 보며, 민주주의 붕괴와 로마제국 몰락 사례를 들었다. 인플레이션 관련: 멍거는 인플레이션이 민주주의를 무너뜨리는 방식이며 핵전쟁을 제외하면 가장 큰 장기 위험이라고 주장했다. 로마가 수백 년간 화폐를 지속적으로 팽창시키다 결국 붕괴했다는 사례를 제시했고, 40년 이상 인플레이션을 겪지 않은 사람들이 많아 이 위험을 간과하기 쉽다고 지적했다. 애플 관련: 버크셔 해서웨이가 기술주 투자에 오랫동안 소극적이었으나 현재 애플이 최대 보유 종목이다. 테드 웩슬러 또는 토드 콤스가 매수를 설득했고, 주가 상승으로 일부 리밸런싱은 했지만 지분은 여전히 많다. 멍거는 현재 보유에 매우 만족하며 소비재 성격으로 본다고 언급했다. 쉐브론 관련: 브리스톨마이어스를 매도하고 쉐브론을 매수한 것에 대해 멍거는 배당 수익률과 경영진에 대한 신뢰를 이유로 들며 긍정적으로 평가했다. 최근 유가 상승으로 이미 큰 수익이 났을 가능성이 있다고 언급되었다. 출연자 전망: 멍거는 구체적인 단기 가격 방향은 언급하지 않았다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. welcome back today was the annual meeting of shareholders for the daily journal corporation and that meant another appearance by charlie munger chairman of the daily journal vice chairman of berkshire hathaway and long-time business partner of warren buffett our own editor-in-chief andy serwer spoke with monger before the event and joins us now andy your conversation spanned a wide range of topics but it was munger's comments on inflation and how dire of a risk rising prices are to uh to really our society that really caught my attention what else can you tell us about this and what else stood out to you about this discussion yeah well emily when you get a chance to ask charlie questions you have a million of them and uh he has an opinion about every single one of them and it's usually something that's just well a little eye-opening and you're right i asked him about inflation and i thought i would get sort of a well yeah something i'm looking at you know we're going to come out of coba we have a little inflation but actually he was a lot more well vehement about the problems that inflation poses here's what he had to say take a listen inflation is a very serious subject you can argue it's the way democracies die when democracy dies in latin america inflation is a big part of it so it's a huge danger once you've got a populist that learns it can vote itself money if you overdo it too much you ruin your your civilization a lot and so of course it's a big long-range danger if you look at the roman republic and even after they went to a empire with an absolute ruler they inflated the currency steadily for hundreds of years and eventually the whole damn roman empire collapsed so it's the biggest long-range danger we have probably apart from nuclear war wow you guys inflation right after nuclear war um that's pretty dire uh and you know you can take it with a grain of salt i mean okay if we're the same as the roman empire i think we have a few hundred years 500 years 800 years to go here but still it's worth considering especially because a lot of people haven't been around and haven't really experienced inflation since it was 40 plus years ago andy it was it was a wide-ranging conversation that you had with charlie and particularly one thing that sticks out is what he said about apple and knowing the history that berkshire hathaway had with apple how they were hesitant reluctant to get into tech for so long and now it's what their largest position because one of the other fund managers was able to execute that trade and so what did he have to say about the tech behemoth well you're right brad those two are linked now berkshire hathaway and apple and it is this huge position it's a huge part of their portfolio and so because all the rest of us own it too out there in america and around the world you know listening to what they're going to do with that stake is is critically important and so i always really want to hear they if they're subtle little changes in their perspective it didn't sound like it at all i mean it sounded like a core holding for a long time and you're absolutely right that it was either ted wesler or todd combs who convinced buffett to buy this stock they did pair off a little bit but that's only because the stock had grown so much that they you know needed to rebalance a little bit they still own you know just as much as ever and you know now buffett and monger two are very comfortable with that holding and it's not really a tech thing it's a you know consumer product and even monger was saying everybody owns one of them so it kind of makes sense it fits their pattern of the kinds of stocks that they own and andy i want to turn your attention to chevron which uh manga said he felt good about i'm wondering what was it that he feels good about especially when you have the ukraine russia pressures you have obviously gas could potentially hit seven dollars at the petrol station for people what was he honing in on yeah rochelle a little bit surprising i mean first of all i asked him about it in the context of selling bristol myers um and then buying chevron it looks like okay the pandemic's over so you sell the health care and then you buy a cyclical coming out of it and there may be something to that but he really was you know talking about yield a little bit um with those kinds of securities those kinds of equities and in particular though with chevron he was talking about management and how comfortable he was with management um so so that was an interesting thing and of course you know a lot of people have um problems owning oil stocks that's not going to be a problem with with charlie munger and of course the price of oil has just been on a tear recently you guys not exactly clear when they bought this stock but they already could be big winners here which you know if you know munger and buffett's not really that surprising right yeah exactly andy yahoo finances editor-in-chief andy serwer joining us here this afternoon andy uh great to have some of your takeaways from the conversation we'll check back in of course