Russia-Ukraine conflict 'not good for anybody': Charlie Munger

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찰리 멍거는 인플레이션을 민주주의와 문명을 무너뜨릴 수 있는 장기적 위험으로 규정했다. 역사적으로 로마 제국과 바이마르 독일의 사례를 들며 통화 가치 하락이 사회 붕괴와 독재로 이어질 수 있다고 경고했다. 투자자 관점에서는 향후 100년간 통화 가치가 0으로 수렴할 것이라는 것을 작업 가설로 제시했다. 다만 이는 단기 가격 예측이 아닌 장기 견해다. 연준의 대응에 대해서는 현대 민주주의에서 정부의 대규모 대응은 불가피했고 두려움에 근거해 돈을 푼 것은 옳았지만, 너무 많이, 너무 빨리 풀어 과잉 대응했을 가능성이 있다고 평가했다. 러시아-우크라이나 분쟁에 대해서는 누구에게도 좋지 않다고 언급했을 뿐, 특정 자산에 대한 구체적 전망은 없었다.

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01. I mentioned inflation Charlie and the stock market is is down a bit this year maybe because of inflation uh also the tensions in Russia and Ukraine maybe we'll get to that in a second but I want to ask you specifically about inflation are we looking at a prolonged decline um in the markets because of inflation is inflation On The Rise and should we be concerned about it well let me take that in the reverse order inflation is a very serious subject you can argue it's the way democracies die when democracy dies in Latin America inflation is a big part of it so it's a huge danger once you got a populace that learns it can vote itself money it if you overdo it too much you ruin your your civilization a lot and so of course it's a big long range danger if you look at the Roman Republic and even after they went to a Empire with an absolute ruler they inflated the currency steadily for hundreds of years and eventually the whole damn Roman Empire collapsed so it's the biggest long range danger we have probably apart from nuclear war is it something investors need to be worried about specifically when it comes to growth stocks right now well I think the safe assumption for an investor is that over the next 100 years the currency is going to zero that's my working hypothesis wow well that'll be a different type of environment won't it a very dangerous environment and what about the Hitler was the combination what brought in Hitler was the combination of the Yar inflation where they utterly destroyed the savings of the middle class in Germany followed by the Great Depression it was a one-w punch and Hitler came in Crazy demagogue with 40% of the votes and pretty soon we had a dictator hellbent for World War so the history is not pleasant and Germany was a very Advanced and Civilized Nation the the Germany that Hitler took over I always say that the interesting thing about that was little Albert Einstein a little Jewish boy got his entire primary education with the insistence of the Catholic church in Germany now that is a very Civilized Nation so if you let your nation deteriorate too much what you get is a Hitler we've proved it going back to inflation specifically though Charlie do you think the Federal Reserve is doing the right thing now or not well of course in a modern democracy in the age of canes you're going to get big government reaction the reaction this time was bigger than it's ever been before in the history of the United States they just threw money at the problem and they were probably right to to fear what was going to happen and to be quite liberal and throwing money at it but they probably overdid it a little they threw so much money so fast that it's hard for the restaurants to get people to do the work but I don't criticize it it's hard to make these decisions Under Pressure How concerned are you about Russia and Ukraine right now well of course nobody likes it you can no I don't of course I don't like it but is it a big anybody like the trouble with I I I don't think Russia likes it I don't think it's good for anybody