저자: 제이비 · 한국인
요약 보기
JB는 DGRW 익절 후 TNA(러셀2000 3배 레버리지)를 추가 매수했다고 밝힘. 전날 신규실업수당 등 고용지표가 예상보다 나빠 채권·주식이 반등했고, 생산성 3.2(예상 2.4)·단위노동비용 0.5(예상 1.3)로 기업 비용 감소가 호재로 작용. 아오조라은행 등 미국 상업용 부동산 손실로 은행주 불안, 이후 대형은행 실적은 양호하다는 분석으로 일부 회복. 이스라엘-하마스 휴전 합의 진전으로 채권 일부 반납. 아마존 약 7%, 메타 약 15% 급등(배당 시작·약 66조원 자사주 매입), 애플은 중국 매출 13% 감소로 약 3% 하락. 장 시작 후 매수 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
Yes, hello. This is JB. First of all, as I mentioned in my post on the membership community board last night, I took profits on my entire position in DGRW, which I entered a few weeks ago. I received dividends and managed to wrap things up after carefully observing the price fluctuations. It seems many members who bought at the same time as me have also made good profits; congratulations to everyone.
Also, yesterday, after taking profits on DGRW, I entered into an additional purchase of TNA, a leveraged product that tracks the Russell 2000 Index at 3x leverage. Fortunately, after buying TNA, there was an additional rise. So, in today's video, I plan to discuss the Nasdaq market conditions from yesterday and the banking sector, which is currently showing signs of significant volatility.
I will also share my personal thoughts on Amazon, Meta, and Apple, which released their earnings reports after the market closes, so if you are interested, please listen carefully until the end. First, regarding the key economic indicators released yesterday, there are initial jobless claims. Both initial and continuing jobless claims exceeded expectations.
Of course, we cannot make a definitive conclusion based solely on the figures for this week. While it is too early to make a definitive judgment and we need to observe trends for a few more weeks, indicators showing that the labor market has cooled down allowed both the stock and bond markets to cheer.
Additionally, the simultaneously released fourth-quarter productivity figures came in at 3.2, significantly exceeding the forecast of 2.4, while unit labor costs fell significantly below the forecast of 1.3 to 0.5. In short, since this means that corporate expenses decreased while productivity actually increased, the market was able to cheer.
Anyway, the atmosphere for big tech companies was generally positive throughout yesterday. However, as the banking sector continued to show signs of instability, small and medium-sized stocks also experienced significant volatility; this was ultimately because commercial real estate risks continued to make banks anxious yesterday, following the previous day.
Following the New York Community Bank, yesterday, Aozora Bank—ranked 16th by market capitalization in Japan—intensified anxiety in the banking sector by stating that it expects to incur a significant loss in the 250 billion won range due to U.S. real estate investments. For reference, Aozora Bank has managed its operations relatively well and has never experienced such a loss before, but this time...
It is reported that they recorded a loss for the first time. Furthermore, Deutsche Bank, a mega-bank in Europe, added to the anxiety by increasing provisions related to U.S. real estate investments by 17 billion won—a figure more than four times higher than the same period last year. Consequently, at one point, BNKU fell by about 10% and DPST dropped by over 20%.
Fortunately, however, the stock prices recovered slightly over time. Of course, even with the recovery, they still ended with significant declines, but one of the reasons for this slight recovery was that analyses began to emerge suggesting it was an exaggeration to frame this incident as a problem for all regional banks.
Bank of America immediately issued a statement, noting that if you look at the fourth-quarter earnings of the six major U.S. banks and other regional banks of a certain size, they all performed well and their finances remain sound. And this is actually correct; looking at this earnings season, almost all regional banks posted good results.
That is why the banking sector saw its stock prices rise without any major issues. In any case, by taking the stance that the poor performance of New York community banks is a short-term issue, the bank The sector was able to recover, albeit slightly. Along with this, another piece of good news has emerged: Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire proposal.
Mediators such as the US, Qatar, and Egypt presented a ceasefire negotiation plan, and fortunately, Israel accepted the terms. It is expected that Israel and Hamas will finalize the details and reach a ceasefire agreement within a week. Consequently, bonds gave back some of their gains at this point.
Yesterday was a day packed with earnings announcements from big tech companies; Amazon, Meta, and Apple released their results. First, Amazon's stock price surged nearly 7% following an earnings surprise. Meta also delivered a massive earnings surprise this time; its performance was exceptionally strong.
Meta laid off a large number of employees, and as corporate efficiency improved dramatically, its net profit increased by more than three times. Based on these incredibly strong results, the company decided to start paying quarterly dividends for the first time and announced that it would spend approximately 66 trillion won on share buybacks.
Wow, 66 trillion won. I mean, Hyundai Motor's market capitalization is currently 46 trillion won. That is more money going into share buybacks than Hyundai Motor's market capitalization. It means they are burning it up. The scale of money spent by US Big Tech companies is truly beyond imagination. This is also why we need to invest in US Big Tech.
Anyway, following this announcement, Meta's stock price surged by a whopping 15%. One thing that surprised me while looking at Meta's earnings was that Facebook is still growing well and making good money. Actually, there are hardly any people using Facebook in Korea. It seemed like it was mostly older people who used it, but even they are increasingly switching to Instagram these days—though Instagram is also owned by Meta.
Anyway, it made me think that Facebook only suffered a bit in Korea, and globally, it is indeed the largest social media platform, and that Meta is a Big Tech company for a reason. Apple also announced its earnings; there were some concerns in the market, but fortunately, the results were decent. Both EPS and revenue exceeded expectations.
However, because revenue in Greater China, including China, fell by 13% and significantly underperformed expectations, the stock price closed down about 3%. So, you can consider yesterday's performance to be pretty much a disaster, and I will probably buy something when the market opens today. I have a feeling that might be the case.
If I make a purchase, I will let you know immediately through the real-time membership community bulletin board. See you in the next video. Thank you.
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