저자: Kevin · 외국인
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부동산: 단독주택은 봄 들어 가격 상승 중이나 향후 조정 가능성, 텍사스·내슈빌 등 코비드 붐 지역은 공급과잉·임대료 하락 우려, 블루스테이트는 공급 부족으로 안정 전망. 거시: 고용비용지수(ECI) 뜨거워 연준 매파 쪽 기울기, 금리 인하 횟수 감소 전망. 현금 비중 약 20%(고점 40%). 테슬라: 자율주행 AI 투자 확대로 현금흐름 우려, 레이오프·마진 불확실, 6월까지 220달러 가능성 언급하며 콜옵션 상방 헤지.
다듬은 글
gold down stocks down Tesla down a lot real estate prices up according to the 20 City average by core logic what is going on Drome Powell's talking tomorrow let's break all of this down because there's a lot to understand the first thing we should do is understand real estate now you know me I'm a big person about you know when it comes to real estate in terms of my opinions on it and how much I'm involved in it you already know I've got a real estate startup we have a fundraising deadline for that tomorrow but we'll do a q Q&A like after Jerome Powell tomorrow we'll just stay in the same live stream we'll do a really big Q&A I'll answer any single question anybody has about that but let's first understand the real estate market right now single family homes are actually becoming substantially more expensive in the spring which is great for the stuff we bought as a real estate company at the end of last year but it's not so great for buying more why what is happening this is my opinion as we're starting to see in certain cities inventory Rising what we're seeing is buer Euphoria stepping into the real estate market for single family dwellings this is very different in multi and I'll explain that the single family Euphoria for singles it's skyrocketing because people have finally come to terms with the idea that we're not presently experiencing a 2008 style crash in housing in America now that doesn't mean we won't and I'll give you some speculation on what may happen going forward in just a moment but what it's telling you is that a lot of people are trying to get their hands on real estate and this is leading a lot of folks to overpay for accessible real estate no not wheelchair accessible I mean accessible as in close to the price that they are able to buy real estate for so maybe 600,000 to a million bucks somewhere in there this sort of range that a lot of people are buying real estate in and so as inventory is still relatively low and even though rates are high there's enough Euphoria to diversify away from stocks which are being a little volatile right now to move into real estate and buy singles themselves as either rentals or to live in this actually has been making housing more unaffordable as prices are still ticking up from those lows of last year and rates are also ticking up so yes housing is becoming substantially more unaffordable now people are speculating that as interest rates come down housing prices will go up I actually don't think that will happen in the near term I actually think that as interest rates come down we'll see more housing inventory and you'll sort of have a balanced Market but what's starting to happen may be even worse in areas like parts of Texas parts of Nashville parts of other areas in the country that had sort of a covid boom that is we might be exper experiencing what I call the covid reversal Trend which is where you have this massive surge of individuals moving to an area Texas Nashville whatever uh Boise Idaho and then you have this this sudden overbuilding of new construction in that area then the flow of people slows down and as the flow of people slows down and you still have that construction with a two-year lag time coming online rents fall and all of a sudden you have a lot softer Market with a whole lot more inventory and it's a whole lot more desirable to just go rent than it is to buy that creates potential Corrections in those markets that are suffering covid reversals and in the underbuilt markets like the blue states that you know a lot of people don't like investing in a lot of those markets are seeing way more stability because they underbuilt what a surprise blue States underbuilding and actually leading home prices to rise not fall not a surprise so this is a little bit on real estate and what's happening in real estate but it's happening at the same time as we're seeing volatility in the stock market and now the odds are that we're not going to get as many interest rate Cuts this year if any at all in fact the odds are greater that we were going to have zero interest rate Cuts uh than the odds of us having three interest rate cuts which markets believed we were going to have three just as of a few months ago and at the beginning of the year markets thought we were going to have six or seven rate Cuts that's basically over now so why is some of this over now well numbers continue to come in hat hat hot when it comes to inflationary numbers and not so hot not so hot not so hot for other numbers which is giving fears or rise to fears again about stagflation look we're nowhere near the 9% inflation and the you know fractional GDP we had in 22 when we were comparing to a hot year of 2021 so of course our GDP was lower in 22 we had a technical recession 2 qu in a row of negative GDP that was not a surprise we predicted that in January of 22 it was that was almost obvious and of course inflation ran up to 9% yes that felt stagflationary but again comparing to 2021 when we had low prices and really high GDP that was logical now the fears that are regurgitating are oh the decline of inflation is starting to reverse we're getting more inflation with GDP potentially coming in lower based on those q1 preliminary estimates now we can clean that up by saying ah well it was less inventory build up we don't need more inventory build up because we could just call our suppliers and they've got plenty of Supply available uh and less exports to foreign countries and quite frankly this is where the data picture gets mixed because you go well real GDP estimates for Q2 were like 3.9% so what is it is the economy hun or it's not well the only thing we seem to know with certainty is that the last three INF inflationary reports were either On Target or warmer than expected and just this morning we got a very important report called the employment cost index which came in hotter than expected at 1.2 versus the 1.0 expected for the quarter 1.2 works out to 4.8% in wage gains a lot of that per Nick T over at the Wall Street Journal the leaker over at the Federal Reserve we like to say I'll give you a big hint of what he's saying in just a moment but he thinks that's heavily driven by unions now something to know about Nick T is first of all he sent this really important message and his important message was Kevin tendies were so nice yesterday on that call option that he played with course members you got to check out the course member live streams the course member trade alerts and the course member lectures all bundled together in a beautiful stocks and sight course expiring today coupon code expires tonight that's April 30th so make sure if you have questions you email us at staff at me kevin.com otherwise check out over at meetkevin.com uh and if you have questions after you could always email us as well I do send trade alerts to send all my trade ideas and I give my rationale for the ideas doesn't mean they're always going to be a win but uh boy this Friday to Monday trade we freaking killed it let's go 500k we can go buy a house now woo seven children uh anyway so uh okay so so Nick T actually warned that JP Pal's potentially going to lean a little bit more on the hawkish side and take this approach of do nothing signal that no greater confidence has been achieved and that it's going to take significantly more time to actually gain the confidence than they had previously anticipated and that again is because of potentially those hotter ECI numbers and I hate to say it but Q2 ECI numbers employment cost index numbers are probably going to be even hotter than q1 that's because California is probably going to contribute 2% to ECI itself so that means you potentially go from two 1.2 to 1.4 not great because if you annualize that out you just multiply it by four now you got 5.6% annual wage gains sounds good but if you have 5.6% annual wage gains then you get States like California that are so freaking stupid they go oh well prices have gone up again for goods and services and costs companies are raising costs again let's raise the minimum wage again and again and again and then you have this never ending cycle of things getting more unaffordable people trying to make more money and catch up to the 30% inflation we've had but then things companies raise prices even more and get even more un affordable and the cycle keeps going and you never end up solving inflation just like you had in the 1970s which is a big cluster F it's a disaster it's a big problem so hot ECI sucks it's bad so I really went in today into today before this ECI print thinking we were going to get a neutral jpow now I'm kind of moving the needle a little bit to that hawkish side I think we're probably 6040 Hawk Dove tomorrow because of that hot ECI print tomorrow so last week I'm like ah probably neutral you know some of the data is coming in soft consumer confidence went to 97 that is a uh low that is the lowest level that we've seen since July of 2022 that's when inflation was 9% that's how low consumer confidences now and they revised down the last consumer confidence number Chicago pmis missed Dallas activity missed the yield curve is getting more inverted which is more of a signal of recession and ironically despite this hot ECI report The Five-Year Break Even which gives you sort of a predictor of what inflation is going to be over the next five years actually take down tiny little bit to 2.42% because what's happening is at the same time as we're getting hotter inflation reads we're also getting recessionary reads and so the market is starting to maybe start pricing in again oh no what if there's a recession slightly right now most people are not thinking there's a recession coming but those are often the folks who realized last minute that oh my gosh there is a recession coming there's a reason let's just say and this is not to advertise this is just to tell you I put my money where my mouth is I know there are a lot of people that uh that don't listen to the full videos and that's unfortunate to them because I feel like I'm very transparent with everything that I'm doing uh and so there's a reason why in an ETF that I manage you you know we're we're like 19 to 20% cashola right now uh you know we were as high as 40% we did a little dip buying and and uh you know we we expect to do some more but that's 20% cash myself I'm pretty high in cash you know I've I've deployed a little bit uh in a dip over the last few uh a few days here and have done some trading over the last weekish but uh I still have a lot more cash than I've previously had and that's because I think if we get a dirty jpow tomorrow it's probably a decent hedge to go into tomorrow with some cash depending on what he says will determine are we going to have a big sell off tomorrow or uh you know and and how bad is what he says or is he going to go hey you know what we're going to reduce our uh Bond selling which is stimulative to uh to the bond market we'll provide some more liquidity that's a complicated topic but it's basically way saying if get the treasury market that's screwed up the government can't Finance more debt and they obviously love debt they love their debt they're going to keep financing more debt and then you have problems uh but you know what it's really going to come down to is this idea of could he signal that we're going to get another hike me thinks not but if he does this Market's going to tank it's it's really going to tank very fast I don't think he's going to Signal another hike but he would say hey the doors not closed to it he'll say that but signaling a hike is different from saying you know the doors open are closed to it uh I'd like to hear him reiterate that we think we're at Peak for the cycle but it may take longer to raise rates that would be you know and depending on some of his other word wording I think we get 55 Dove 45 uh sorry 55 Hawk 45 Dove maybe 6040 something like that leaning towards the hawkish side could create a slight sell-off obviously we've got earnings this week as well from Amazon and other companies so we've got a lot to pay attention to earnings last week were great but what's happening with the consumer really going forward can Amazon tell us are we starting to see a turn in the consumer because once the consumer rolls over it'll happen fast in terms of how quick we'll be in a recession now there'll be some sick opportunities to buy stuff in the real estate sector because I think those single family homes might have a little bit of a Poopsy dupsy correction maybe depends might be localized and I think the place to buy the dip right now is in multi family now if you want to know exactly what kind of trade alerts I'm sending is a coupon expiring today we got to talk Tesla in just a moment though uh but the second thing is tomorrow after the FED meeting I'll actually be in the studio uh I want you to uh stick around if you're interested in my house hack ask me anything Q&A you can literally ask anything on the internet live uh so that'll be right after J pal finishes talking we'll just go right into the house HCK Q&A so hope you're there look forward to seeing you there now let's talk Tesla look this weekend my butt was puckering I'm like like oh my God I just went I like I bought Tesla uh calls Friday morning and and I'm like all right and I wrote this strategy out I said and I wrote this my you know as the alert this was part of the alert I'm like look I'm going to buy about 10% of what I'm willing to buy right now and then I'm going to DCA all the way up to uh from a 20K position to a $200,000 position so throughout the day I saw that option go from like a buck 90 to a buck 70 to a buck 60 to a buck 40 to a buck 20 and I'm like this is really freaking annoying anyway I dollar cost averaged all the way down I got my cost bases down to $150 which is great why is it great because this weekend two things happen number one the buttpucker I heard Elon say we're going to be spending $10 billion in autonomy spending AI spending basically this year okay that's freaking nuts that's nuts I saw that I'm like Oh my my God that's a lot of freaking spending now I going to tell you what I think was going to happen but first if if you're in Austin Dallas or Houston today I'll be there make sure to go house hack.com 2024 RSVP okay I'll be there talking about house hack Austin Dallas Houston all today anyway so so I'm like this is terrible because there's no way we're going to be free cash flow on this and I'm reading the earnings call again I'm going bro y'all said you think you're going to be meaning y cash flow positive how no way with 10 billion of extra AI spent and training and compute no way so I saw that I got nervous I'm like I'm screwed my 100,000 in options will die no no see I was looking for the reason I was making this investment was because I thought we'd have a quiet weekend and I thought we would get a bounce from Friday's sell-off Monday Tuesday before the FED meeting what we got was bad news and good news FSD approval in China that $1.50 option went to like $9 it actually went even higher intraday was incredible there was a lot of money to be made there that was great uh but now what I think is happening to Tesla St today is people are going wait a minute you're laying off the whole supercharger team or the new products uh part of the new products team what's going on I can tell you exactly what's going on they don't have enough money remember like even though we had a good Q2 earnings report nothing has changed we still have the same high interest rates for cars we're still going to miss on deliveries yes Tesla can do it with better margins that was a godsend that was the Lifesaver if those margins missed we would have had a $100 stock they didn't miss knock on wood congratulations what a blessing but are rates lower no is it more affordable by a car no are we still going to see price Cuts probably yes uh yes did we get a 1,000 price increase in the performance model this weekend yes we did uh are we probably still going to see more layoffs and more cutting at Tesla yes is the vehicle growth rate this year probably going to be negative yes now can they do all of that potentially with better margins and could margins in Q2 actually improve because of all these layoffs potentially but see how it's a mixed bag right it's not all bull now and I mean like bullish when I say that uh and so I I just I like to be very very transparent with all my thoughts I've exposed myself to Tesla nowhere near as much as I used to uh and I'm just upsid hedging with call options and like I'm open to buying dips but I don't think we need to be like Mega impatient on Tesla though I do think there's a chance the sucker is going to run and touch 220 bucks by June by the vote a lot of things could change maybe that doesn't happen but do think there's a lot of desire for Euphoria over at Tesla but it's offset by uh potential costs and spending at Tesla and more Cuts is are they going to be able to maintain margin uh how profitable and how quickly can we get FSD actually rolling money remember now we're going to lap off of the FSD trials and what we really want to see in Q2 is please a lot of FSD signups give me those $99 a month come on baby I need more more of them so that's my take on everything that's going on from the stock market to the FED to Tesla all that good stuff so make sure you check out that expiring coupon code linked down below meetkevin.com be there or be square tomorrow for the house hack Q&A I love you all thank you so much for being here and we'll see you all soon goodbye
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