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What do you call a market where almost half of investors are pessimistic, and assets that should have collapsed first continue to grow ? This is exactly the kind of split that is observed in the cryptocurrency sector. According to the American Association of Individual Investors' weekly survey for the week ending September 23, 48.1% of respondents expected stocks to fall over the next 6 months.
Only 32.7% were optimistic. The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023, and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rose to its highest level since 2007. Every headline gave a reason to refrain from taking action. And despite all this, Bitcoin rose by about 43.5% in the third quarter, making it the second- best third-quarter performance ever .
And Ether rose by 71%. Large banks began to raise their targets instead of lowering them. Two people who are very close to big money interpret this gap in the same way. Tom Lee leads research at Fundstrat and heads Bitwise, the world's largest corporate holder of Ether. Matt Hogan is the chief investment officer at Bitwise, which manages cryptocurrency assets for financial advisors and institutions.
One of them watches what the markets are pricing. Another spends his days with the people who decide where to direct trillions of dollars in client funds. In this video, we'll break down the fear data behind the capital ratios, what the largest institutions were doing while Bitcoin halved, the new channels connecting Wall Street's wealth platforms to Bitcoin, and why a level that Bitcoin has already broken once still matters so much .
So, let's begin. That's right. I think that on the eve of last week's employment report, the market expected the Fed to be as hawkish as possible. One that intended to raise rates three times, including a 75% chance of a hike in October. This employment report was softer. Um, we'll get the September inflation report in 2 weeks.
That's right . In our opinion, these one-off factors are fading, so I believe that over the next 6 months, inflation rates will be softer, and this will not only allow the Fed to retreat somewhat from its "hawkish" policy, but also, in my opinion, will allow bond yields to normalize as inflation uncertainty begins to subside.
And I think there are a lot of clues, because I think that technology stocks that are making new highs and the success of cryptocurrencies would not be able to demonstrate such results in the context of tightening monetary policy. So I think they anticipate easing financial conditions in the future.
So, you read the signs in different markets to understand what's going on. That would be significant, Tom. So when you say yields are normalizing, what do you think they should be for the 10- year bond right now if it weren't for what you think are misleading movements in different markets ? I think we can start from the number that was before Jackson Hole.
The 10-year bond yield was 4.75%, and I believe that anything below 5% will be seen by the markets as a very positive signal for risk assets. And I mean, there's a good chance that in the next 6 months we'll see yields below 5%. You also expect the S&P index to rise by as much as 9% by the end of the year.
So you're talking about 8200 , maybe 8400, and you're going against conventional wisdom again, as usual. You believe that this market is like a compressed spring, ready to grow significantly. Almost as if he was being held back, although most believe he is overheated and only holding on thanks to AI.
Yes, I think we are living in unprecedented times because earnings growth is accelerating—something that many people find hard to believe, but even third- quarter earnings are likely to show almost 30% growth. Sorry, revised earnings per share (EPS) forecasts from the beginning of the year to 2027 have increased by over 20% , and the S&P itself has not even increased by 20%.
So, the multiplier actually went down. If anyone thought the market was expensive at the beginning of the year, it actually became cheaper. And I think that, paradoxically, high oil prices strengthen the US economy because it is an exporter. I understand that the situation is complicated, but in my opinion , there is excessive pessimism here, because not only are the earnings forecasts good, but we also see the leadership of stocks that benefit from lower inflation - this is the tech sector and, of course, cryptocurrencies.
Let's start with how complicated it all looked on paper. On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate for the first time since 2023. Then, on October 2, the Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added just 29,000 jobs in August. Forecasts ranged from 84,000 to 95,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% , and July data was revised to a net loss of 10,000 jobs.
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Now let's get back to the video. The big banks acted contrary to popular sentiment. In a note dated September 30, Citi raised its 12- month forecast for Bitcoin from $82,000 to $113,000, and for ether from $2,240 to $3,028. Both indicators rose by a third at a time when almost half of private investors were preparing for a fall.
So, the public is bracing for a blow, and the market continues to refuse to cooperate. Tom Lee appeared on CNBC's Squawk Box after that employment report, and the host started with this tension. Tom Lee gave a second interview, this time for CNBC International, where the host immediately moved on to the number that scares stock investors the most—a 10-year yield above 5%.
Well, I mean, the market doesn't like a 10-year yield of 5 %, and it certainly won't like it at 6%. This is huge pressure and competition for returns compared to stocks. But I think there is a clue. The fact that the Nasdaq is hitting all-time highs and the crypto market is rising tells me that the yield increase may be temporary.
So, does this mean that markets are used to rates at 5%? And if the Fed, for example, or the trajectory of rate hikes is implemented in a measured manner, that's something the markets can well withstand. Yes, I mean, 5% is not a problem for the stock market because the real growth is very strong. Um, I think we're going through peak inflation.
I mean, that's kind of the Fed's view, and a lot of economists are now emphasizing temporary factors affecting the CPI. I really think that 10- year bonds at 5% don't make sense. You just saw a chart where France's 10-year bond is at 4.8% or 4.5%. So how can the cost of US debt be 50 basis points higher than France's, right?
So, I think something very strange is happening in the US. You know, it's quite obvious that there's an impulse play going down against US bonds, which is pushing yields up. Again, that's probably why the Nasdaq and cryptocurrencies are going up, because they don't see these rates as stable. Bitcoin is the only major market that never closes, making it an indicator for everything else.
It trades on weekends, holidays, and during all Asian and European sessions without a closing signal. When expectations about money and rates change, a market that is open 24/7 usually reacts earlier than those waiting for Monday. And look how calm he was during the bond market panic. On September 24, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds reached 5.2%, the highest since 2007.
However, since mid- September, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has remained stable in the 35% to 40% range, according to CoinDesk. Options traders did not price panic. The shares didn't budge either. On October 2, a day of disappointing employment data , the S&P 500 closed up 0.73% to 7,722 points.
The Nasdaq added 1.14%, and Nvidia set a new all-time high on its way to a market capitalization of $5.7 trillion. On the morning of October 6, after another record day for stocks, Bitcoin was trading around $86,000 and Ether was around $2,700. If you want to see what the big money is doing while the crowds panic, I track ETF flows, Treasury bond purchases, and bank forecasts daily in “Crypto Nutshell,” my free 5- minute newsletter.
No manipulation, just the numbers behind the sentiment, right in your in. I think that's absolutely correct. You know, we just published a survey in which we spoke to 15 real institutional investors about how they view the crypto market. We surveyed funds, sovereign wealth funds, central banks, some of the largest edaum funds in the world, and we did it during a market pullback , right?
We did this in the first quarter and early in the second. And one of the things we noticed in this survey is that even though Bitcoin has fallen by 50%, none of them are planning to sell it. In fact, they gradually gained ground. And when they talked about what would make them sell their cryptocurrency, no one mentioned the price, right?
The reason for the sell-off could be a change in fundamental thesis , a technical problem, regulatory issues, or governments stopping printing debt, although this is unlikely to happen. But it wasn't about the price. They were doing long-term asset allocation. I think the smartest institutions view this as a 10- year investment.
So what Bitcoin does in a month, two, or three is almost irrelevant to them . I think there is a lot of wisdom in this. It's hard to do that as an investor, it's hard to do nothing, but that's how the biggest, smartest institutions approach this asset, and I think there's wisdom in that approach, as I said.
Now that we have a different type of investor, the price will of course reflect that. And what do you think will be the main driver, since we both agree that cycles will no longer drive price? I see two big catalysts coming over the next year or so. The first is the growing concern about currency depreciation, right ?
Devaluation as an idea for investors emerged in the early 2020s, in 2021, but then subsided a bit. It has been overshadowed by the development of artificial intelligence. But if you look at what's happening in the market today, the yields on long-term bonds of every major government are rising rapidly.
In Europe, you see that there is some risk embedded in the bonds of countries like France. You can look at their spreads relative to other European bonds, and they are widening. Here in the United States, there is great concern that we have a two and a half trillion dollar deficit in a time of economic growth.
I mean, it's literally crazy. So I think one of the catalysts is the very depreciation of money that people have to deal with. The reality is that most investors today have a 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds that is 100% fiat money. If these investors move to 5% or 10% non-fiat assets, i.e. Bitcoin and/or gold, this will be a truly significant inflow.
So I think this is kind of a short-term catalyst for Bitcoin. Although traders can manipulate prices. A more difficult test is how the biggest and slowest money in the world behaved while Bitcoin fell by half. Bitwise backed up the depth of this drop with real numbers. In its first report on institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies, the company described a drop in Bitcoin from approximately $125,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025 to $60,000 in the second quarter of 2026 .
This is exactly the level of subsidence that historically " shakes out" everyone who could be shaken out. One detail that Bitwise revealed with this report goes even further. On September 29, Bitwise head of research Ryan Rasmussen said that at least one sovereign wealth fund was selling gold and foreign exchange reserves to finance the purchase of Bitcoin.
The name of the fund was not disclosed. Still, a government investment vehicle choosing Bitcoin over the oldest reserve asset shows how seriously the world's most conservative money is taking it. The pressure behind this decision continues to grow. The U.S. national debt topped $40 trillion on August 18, according to Treasury data.
It surpassed the 38 trillion mark in October 2025 and 39 trillion in March 2026. So, it took about 5 months to get the last trillion. In the first 10 months of fiscal year 2026, Washington spent $931 billion on interest alone, heading toward the trillion-plus mark for the year. Matt Hogan sat down at the negotiating table on September 25th, and his team spent the time of that sit-down asking a very specific group a very specific question.
And the other process— slower—is institutional investor access to Bitcoin, which, I would say, has only now fully opened up. Bitcoin ETFs opened the door a little starting in 2024, but still required approval from platforms like Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Merrill Lynch, and UBS, which control most of the capital.
They started to really open up in the second half of last year, and may be fully available by this summer. So now we have most institutions finally getting access to Bitcoin. I think they will enter in large volumes, and the depreciation of currencies is forcing them to make it a mandatory asset in portfolios.
This could mean, you know, tens and hundreds of billions of dollars in net capital inflows. I think this is what will take us to a new level. Are ETFs still driven primarily by retail investors? When we last spoke, you mentioned that about 60 or so percent was in the hands of retail investors. Is this still the case?
Yes, the situation is changing. She is changing. If you look at the 13F data, you still see a significant share held by individuals, but you also see how the share of investment advisors and institutions is gradually increasing. It depends on which ETF you are looking at. We are already approaching the 50/50 figure.
I think the situation could change significantly in favor of the institutions. This implementation is really happening . I've been traveling a lot lately. I've been meeting with clients in Colorado, and there's a huge interest in cryptocurrencies there that was n't there on this scale a few years ago.
So, the short answer is: retail investors are still important, but institutions are capturing market share. I think this trend will continue and accelerate at the end of this year and next. So, institutions are really entering the market right now. The desire to own Bitcoin and the permission to buy it are two different things.
And for most of the world's capital, it was the latter that was the "bottleneck ". One day shows how far we have come. On April 8, 2026, Morgan Stanley began trading its own spot Bitcoin ETF with a commission of 0.14%, the lowest in the industry. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balčunas ranked its debut among the top 1% of all ETF launches.
Morgan Stanley's wealth management division has about 16,000 advisors, and the firm has recommended that clients invest between two and 4% of their portfolio in cryptocurrency. The more cautious wing of Wall Street sets a much lower bar. In the same note dated September 30, Citi forecasts about $5 billion in inflows into Bitcoin ETFs over the next 12 months, which will occur at a slower but more consistent pace as advisors and brokers increase allocations.
Even such a cautious forecast is based on a market that attracted $2.39 billion in the week ending September 25 alone . So what happens when each of these advisors can say yes? Well , that's an interesting question. It seems to me that the people who came in recently, those who bought in July , August and September, almost none of them will sell the asset when it doubles.
Actually, that's my point of view. People were surprised that Bitcoin rose from 57 to 80 and simply settled at that level. We didn't have significant consolidation . Typically, after a 30+% rally, there is a consolidation of about 15% before further growth . Instead, we just grew up and stayed put. I think the reason is that many of these people were simply waiting for their moment to enter before the next bull market.
And now that they're in the game , I think they plan to hold the assets for years. Of course, that's exactly what we see. If you look at the inflows and outflows in ETFs, they remain surprisingly stable , considering the asset has fallen by 50%. If you look at equity ETFs covering sectors or themes that fall by 50 %, almost all the money is withdrawn from them.
But in the case of Bitcoin, it was about 10-15% . Not much at all. And now we have generally returned to positive indicators for the year. And I think this indicates a different type of investor. Once they overcome the barrier to investing, they tend to stick with it for the long haul. Because it is difficult to encourage them to take this step.
But once they do, I believe they become extremely resilient investors. And I don't think they will necessarily sell when the price doubles. I think they will hold the asset for several years, at least that's what I think . Look at how money behaved immediately after the rally. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nine consecutive sessions of net inflows before the streak was snapped on September 30.
The following week, the inflow cooled to about $83 million in net inflows, while ether funds recorded about $118 million in outflows. It is during such a pause that it becomes clear whether the new buyers were " tourists." Tom Lee's company is one of the prime examples. Bitmain continued to buy ether during the downturn and held just over 6 million ether as of October 4.
This is about 4.9% of all existing ether, with a total value of crypto assets, cash, and securities of $17.4 billion . The next question that Matt Hogan was asked is one that every new buyer faces. What to do when your position doubles? Yes, I think that's a fair question. Listen, many believe that they are the drivers of Bitcoin price behavior right now.
We, of course, during the previous growth, saw people who were willing to sell for $100,000. I wouldn't be surprised if some people didn't know where things were going, but I thought: if the price reached 100 thousand, it would roll back and they could go back in at 80 or 75, or something like that.
If we start to get an " escape velocity" above $100,000, I think they will be forced to enter the market. Because once you break away from gravity at $100,000, where does it stop? I don't even know where it stops, do I ? Because the only reason to stop is when the existing owners start selling. Will they sell for 130 or 140, and why should they do that?
Maybe it's 200, maybe it's 250. So I think if we break away from $100,000, you'll see everyone start to get into the market. One more thought I would like to share with those who say they will buy Bitcoin when it dips. This is probably my favorite tip. Write down right now the price at which you would buy it.
Because I guarantee you: I don't know where Bitcoin will go in the coming weeks, but let's imagine it rolls back to $70,000, or let's say a bunch of negative factors appear and we fall to $65,000. You won't want to buy it then. After all, the reason you want to buy it now is the good vibes, the pleasant feelings, and the confidence that it's growing.
If there is a setback, you will start to doubt. So the only way to develop the discipline to actually act if we are lucky enough to see a pullback is to write down the purchase price now. So I think it's an extremely valuable tool for people. Literally stick a sticker on your computer. "I will buy Bitcoin if it reaches X." Because it's the only way to force yourself to do it at that moment.
Bitcoin peaked at $126,080 on October 6, 2025. A year later, in early October 2026 , it was trading in the $85,000–$86,000 range , about a third below that high. It first crossed the $100,000 mark in December 2024 , and since then this level has acted as a magnet and a wall at the same time. To get back to $100,000 from $85,500 would require a gain of about 17%, which is significantly less than the 43.5% that Bitcoin gained in the third quarter alone.
If you're tempted to catch up on this movement with borrowed money, pay attention to what regulators did on October 2nd. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved a rule change for the first US bitcoin and ether ETFs with triple leverage— six funds from Volatility Shares, after years of US crypto funds being limited to double leverage.
Eric Balčunas summed them up in one phrase: “Leveraged ETFs are for trading, not investing.” They reset daily, so in a volatile market they can lose money even when Bitcoin remains at about the same level. A more valid question is: what happens to buyers who wait below 100,000. Tom Lee and Matt Hogan look at two sides of the same coin.
Lee reads the prices: a market that should have collapsed due to rate hikes, 5 percent bond yields, and disappointing employment data, went up anyway. Hogan reads people: institutions that have survived a 50% drawdown, wealth management platforms that have finally opened their doors, and new owners who are in no hurry to sell .
Sentiment surveys , such as those from the American Association of Individual Investors, are not without reason considered to be conflicting signals. With almost half of investors already preparing for a drop, many of those who were going to sell have often already done so. And when the " slowest" money in the world keeps adding while the crowd hides, the gap between sentiment and capital has a habit of shrinking in capital's favor.
None of this guarantees a direct upward movement. Bond yields may continue to rise. The Fed has turned hawkish again , and this may not be the end. Bitcoin could return to the 70,000 level again before it sees 100,000, and it is still about a third below its record. But investors with the longest planning horizons and the largest fortunes have already shown you what they do during market downturns.
They held assets and then bought more. If you have a plan before the next scary headline appears, you can make the same choice. If you need help keeping your head up while the headlines try to get you out of the market, that's what Crypto Nutshell is for. It's free, takes 5 minutes a day, and arrives in your inbox every morning with feeds, reports, and important numbers. Follow the first link in the description and you're in business. So .
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