원문 보기
as the official first day of what could be the Santa rally and we are seeing some positive buying pressure will we continue to see this rally next week first up let's take a look at the s p 500s b I want to start out looking at the weekly chart of spy and if you go back in time I told you there was a good chance we get rejected from this bear Market resistance trend line and see at least three weeks of selling in the S P 500 and today was the end of the third week and yes it did close slightly in the red now the last time we had these rejections we had at least three weeks of selling and then a nice strong bounce before we continued the bear market and I do think we are going to see another nice strong bounce next week which I am calling the Santa Claus rally now keep in mind there has been a lot of people when we were at this resistance that said it's way too obvious and everybody sees it coming and there is no way the stock Market is going to reject from that level again because everybody can see it happening and yet we rejected from that level anyway and we repeated the three weeks of selling as expected now we're getting into a situation where there's people saying everybody is talking about a Santa Claus rally and if everybody's expecting a Santa Claus rally there is absolutely no way we're getting one so while that could be true obviously that does not mean it won't happen because people were saying the same thing about the rejection from resistance so do keep in mind while spy is above this weekly support at spy 380 there is a very good chance that we rally back up towards the 390s and close that gap on the daily chart around 396 before we continue the bear market so pay attention to the weekly chart because it is telling you very clearly we were getting buying pressure at the end of the week and that is why we have this Hammer looking candle and we would not be getting buying pressure if the market was getting ready to crash so there is a very good chance of that Santa Claus rally next week and we did get the three weeks of selling from resistance sense so jumping over to the daily chart on spy we can just do a quick recap of the weekly chart and we can see that we are still expecting that Santa Claus rally to take us up to the Gap fill in the 396 Zone by the first couple of trading days of next year which is going to take us into early January we're staying bullish for this possibility of the Santa Claus rally only while spies above the critical risk of that 378 because below 378 we will be looking for spy to head back down into the 360s and the 350s so while we're above 378 we're watching resistance to the upside around 386 the Gap field just above 387 and then the strong resistance Zone at 390 393 and the Gap foot at 396.
any of these upside price targets could be our Santa Claus rally destination even though I do have it drawn going all the way to 396 there is no way to know where exactly we're going to end up so stay optimistic that this is possible as long as spies Above This critical support at 378. on the NASDAQ 100 triple cues we were at 0.22 today in the triple cues did shake off closing below yesterday's low and we are starting to see a little bit of a green candle off of this support around 267.
now you can see this is the second day closing below the support trend line at 268 so you do want to be extra cautious in the triple cues while we're below 268 because there is still a good chance we come down here to test the lower support at 260. below 260 will likely make a brand new 52-week low which will be down here around 250 but if we can start bouncing and break back over 270 and then break the resistance at 273 we could see that Santa Claus reality take us all the way up to 280 or the Gap close at 283.
so if you want to manage a risk for a Santa rally in the triple cues I would set your risk down here right around 267. in the Dow Jones we are at 0.51 today and the Dow Jones got another close back over the 50 EMA which is exactly where we saw that hammer candle from yesterday and we did take out yesterday's high confirming that the hammer candle is bullish remember anytime you get a hammer candle you want to take out the previous high and that's exactly what the Bulls did today from here the Dow Jones can likely rally to 334 and then up there to fill the Gap just below 338 and anything above that will be a bull breakout that could take us all the way back up to 346.
the critical support remains 330 327 and 325. on the Russell 2000 iwm ETF we were up 0.46 percent and again we're starting to look like we're getting a balance but we are still below the 5 EMA so manage your risk around this support at 172 because if we break below that we're going back down into the 160s the upside resistance remains 176 178 and that Gap filled just below 179.
on The RK ETF we were down nearly two percent today and we did close below the support at 31.3 so it does look like we're trending down towards the next price Target at 30 dollars I do think this ETF is getting very close to putting in a final bottom but we could never be sure because we are in such a strong bear market so if we break down below 30 we are very likely going to see some type of major capitulation event although I do think we have already seen capitulation in this ETF because here we are breaking down to brand new 52-week closing lows and it's all happening on decreasing volume so there's just really no high volume Panic selling in this ETF which means there is likely no retailers left in this ETF as well look for upside resistance at 31.3 32.5 and the Gap foot at 34.4 and we're not getting bullish until we can get back over this resistance just above 34.6 on the vix we were down 5.1 percent today and the vix continues to get crushed and it does continue to tell us there is just absolutely no fear in this market which does favor the potential of that Santa rally next week if the Vic starts crushing down below 20 it's going to be very bullish but there's also a good chance the vix continues to find support at 20 and then we see another Spurt of volatility as the Vic spikes back up from that support level and Bitcoin is still trading below our two resistant levels at seventeen thousand and seventeen thousand five fifty and we can't get bullish until we get a bullish breakout above that resistance critical support is sixteen thousand because if we break support we're going for the next leg lower at fourteen thousand three ninety five on Amazon stock we were up one point seven four percent today and Amazon is still finding resistance at that breakdown right there at that resistance at 86 and if we get rejected from 86 we're looking for the next leg Laura eighty dollars and then seventy seven above 86 we have strong resistance at 91 and 97 and if we could break that resistance we can break out of the downtrend and start getting a lot more bullish in Amazon on Microsoft we were at point two three percent today and Microsoft bounced off at the top of this Gap fill right around 234 and we're still bearish while we're below 242.
below 242 we're likely trying to fill the Gap around 228 and we're getting a lot more bullish if we could break above 245 and then 252. on Nvidia stock we were down 0.87 today and nvidia's bearish while below 156 for The Gap fill to the downside at 142. above 156 we can run back up to resistance at 166 and above 166 we'll be looking for The Gap thought 174.
on Tesla stock we were down 1.76 percent today and again on very high volume but we are seeing the selling pressure start to slow down and we're still above our next price Target which is down here right around 117. we did have a weekly support at 129 that we did close below and I am leaving the arrow on the chart even though we violated the support I still think there is a chance we run up towards 155 to 167 by early January remember just last night I went over this as a capitulation event and I believe anybody selling down here below 138 is being irrational or being Force liquidated so I do not think this is going to be a great place to sell this stock I think it's the exact opposite and I think people should be buying at these levels getting ready for a counter Trend rally now if you don't agree with me manage your own risk this is obviously just my opinion but I do think now is the time to consider loading up on this stock and preparing for a very face ripping rally but you do need to be mindful of the resistances at 138 155 and that critical resistance at the neckline breakdown right around 167 to 168.
on Apple stock we were down 0.28 and apple hit that very critical support at 130 yet again and we continue to find buyers at that level if Apple breaks 130 we're likely going to see some type of capitulation in this Behemoth of this big Tech name and I just don't think now is the time to lose this support yes it's possible and yes we can go lower I just don't think it's going to happen so if we do break this support look for high volume selling as Panic sellers exit Apple stock for a loss and run for the hills however if we get a balanced from here we can bounce all the way back up to 135 and then above 135 we can get all the way back up to 141.
on the financials we're up 0.56 percent today and I think the financials will see a Santa rally that could easily take us up to close the gap at 34.49 the Industrials were up 0.59 today and I do think the industrial Santa rally could take us up to fill the Gap at 100. the healthcare sector was up 0.06 percent today with the Santa rally likely taking us to fill the Gap around 137.
the energy sector was up 3.19 today and getting very close to a bull breakout if we can start closing decisively above 87 and we will be looking for that upside resistance around 88.6 so jumping back over to the S P 500 based on today's balance in holding the critical support and going into the seasonality of the Santa rally plus we have the weekly chart that shows us the selling pressure is drying up I think there's a very good chance we see the Santa rally next week that could take us all the way up to 387 all the way up to 396.
so watch those critical resistance levels and stay optimistic of a rally as long as we're above the critical support at 378. if we're wrong we're wrong and the price action will tell us because we'll slice right down through support and we'll be looking for the iler twitches and C y action Trader come join us at the stock show and
Comments 0