Vegas's Economy just Died.

요약 보기

라스베이거스 관광 수요가 감소하고 있다는 주장. 캐사스 3분기 매출은 카지노만 증가하고 호텔·F&B·기타 매출이 감소했으며 영업이익이 약 20% 하락, 이자비용이 영업이익을 초과한다고 분석. 부채(장기부채 약 240억달러)와 단기 상환 부담을 지적. 윈리조트는 비교적 저성장·영업이익 감소·외환손실 발생. 중저가 소비자 위축(K자형 회복)과 높은 리조트피, 온라인 도박 확산을 원인으로 제시. 캐사스 주가는 3년간 83% 하락.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Halloween was a huge hit. So, quick reminder, use coupon code pennywise, the very brief Halloween coupon before we change the price at meetke.com for trade alerts, alpha report, course member live streams, and more. Shocking Vegas casino CEO admits why the strip is empty. Let's find out what's really going on here.

02. Las Vegas dead. Here's a few that I found looking online. Nobody comes here. There is no shortage of people commenting on Vegas being dead. I I always feel like people are like posting Vegas at like 2:00 a.m. or sorry, at at at like um uh 10:00 a.m. on a Tuesday or something and of course it looks empty.

03. Like that's how Vegas works, though. When when you go out to Vegas, it's packed at night and then during the day it's dead. But let's see. It sounds like they've got potentially a conversation here with a CEO or something. Let's listen in to see what they get. No longer needs the people who made it lucky.

04. And it's great that we have a team of experts tracking the tourism numbers here locally, courtesy, our economics department over at UNLV. And one professor in particular doesn't like what he's seeing because we have a lot of questions for him right now. For months, we've been really shining a light on tourism here in Las Vegas with how few people I say few cuz it's still in the millions, but it is down.

05. We're wondering, is it slowing? Is it? During a not so recent earnings call, Caesar's Entertainment's CEO Tom Reed made one simple statement that wasn't so simple after all. Seen numbers what, you know, billion and a half plus. Um, I know last year was a little shy of that. I'd expect it to be another record.

06. We'd He said they were kicking out the lowest end at first. Wait, what did that have to do with the clip he just showed? The clip said record numbers. Oh, but then that's also not an earnings call what he just showed. Okay. At first, people thought he might have misspoken, right? Yeah, I'm confused.

07. People thought he might have misspoken, but the truth is he didn't. They had no idea this would soon become the new business model. The following year, MGM's Bill Hornbuckle said the same thing in calmer words. They weren't chasing budget travelers anymore. They were targeting quality customers. To them, that meant wealthier ones.

08. If you don't have gamblers, right, you don't need as many dealers, let's say. You don't need need as many tables open. Las Vegas is known for its bright lights, big bets, and non-stop action. But right now, things are quieter than usual. A recent dip in tourism is sending shock waves through the strip, and casino workers are feeling the hit firsthand.

09. A font of Blue announced some layoffs. But Vegas didn't become an empire by catering to the elite. It was built on cheap buffets. $5. You got to go you got to go to Bignyions. You know, you want you want cheap and a good experience, you go to Binyions in downtown Vegas. Uh anyway, let's go look at a recent earnings call because I mean, so far I'm getting a stitched together argument here.

10. I don't know. I mean, I did my flight training in Vegas. Shout out to Henderson uh and Allin. Like I loved my time there. I love doing flight training there. I got my instrument rating and my uh you know pilot license out there. So uh you know big fan but uh let's go um let's go look. I mean let's see uh uh let's start with traffic.

11. This is the Caesar's earnings call. Okay. No search for traffic. How about consumer? If I could get anything on the consumer. All right. Big question is leisure demand. Are we going to see it improve? Uh that's the difficult answer. That's the macro question. I know that mix will be better for us. Recall we have state farm a state farm conference.

12. So business travelers, right? But but we're now what? 4 months into this step down in leisure demand for Vegas. Oh, it is showing up in the earnings calls. And while we're better than we were in July, we're still not back to where we were on a year-over-year basis. So the question in 2026 will be how quick does this recover?

13. Oh wow. Okay. So there might actually be some issues here. So let me uh let's see what date this was this earnings call. But that is interesting and it it aligns with what we think with the K-shaped recovery of the consumer. This is an earnings call. Mind you, the video we're watching was posted uh you know before this.

14. But this earnings call is fresh. This earnings call is literally from 3 days ago. So, uh we are seeing that demand decline. Look at this. This aligns with the K-shaped economy thesis. So, once we look at the full context, it looks like you are getting compression in the lower-end consumer, not the higherend consumer, which explains why they're talking about the State Farm Conference.

15. The State Farm Conference is going to be your business cohort which often is considered a a you know more premium category. All right. Fine for regional. Let's see what else we have here. But we're seeing flow is improving. Contingency for demand for Okay. What is this? Let's see. Uh let's see what else we have here.

16. Specifically around leisure demand. I heard positive leisure recovery but I also heard that the group fillin is mostly of sequential improvement. So quarter over quarter. We talked about last quarter and based on the bookings we can see it looked particularly soft which is why we told you we were expecting a soft summer.

17. There's not a lot of group business in Vegas when the weather is particularly hot. Yeah. Right. So, so in other words, you want the business customers because they're going to spend more, but it's hot in the summer so the business people don't come. So, you're overly reliant on the leisure travelers.

18. However, those people aren't showing up as much as they used to. July was the worst. August built on that. And then in September and October, it continued the softness. Leisure customer has been softer on a year-over-year basis. Our occupancy looks better and our rates look better than it did in the third quarter.

19. So, things are looking better now is what they're saying in the fourth quarter so far, but the third quarter was basically hell for them in terms of occupancy. So, a lot of empty room. and you had told the market that you were promoting more last quarter and perhaps rolling out more promotions. Okay, that's a great question.

20. We're trying to become more efficient in marketing. You're dialing back what's not working and expanding what does. Oh, look at this. And I want to be clear. There was a sense that we were getting into a promo war. Wow. So, it's getting so promotional. you're getting into a promotion war against the other hotel operators just to try to fill your your hotels.

21. That's not great. So, if you think about the way marketing works, you may lean on the advantages a little bit and say, I'm not going to be as generous in my give back as others and you're still going to perform quite well. Okay, this is just sort of them marketing it. So I would think that what we're doing is kind of taking up that slack, not entering a promotional war and we're not seeing a significant response to competitors that suggest that this is going to keep going higher.

22. We expect looking forward as flow through looks. So I sense like optimism, but you have to try to read between the lines a little bit here. And it just doesn't sound good. It sounds like they're like, "Yeah, we're hoping this will work, but we're not sure. We don't really want to be in a price war because then our investors are going to dump the stock." I don't discount that there are areas in our business and in Vegas that may have gotten over their skis price-wise.

23. So, in other words, they raised prices too much post pandemic. So, this could be a post-pandemic tanking where people are just finally saying, "F you for raising prices this much." There's a degation of demand. Occupancy percentage was over 90% of the quarter. Yeah, but you want to be at, you know, 100%.

24. Right. Like you look at cruise bookings, you're actually you over book cruises at over 100% because you know some people aren't going to show up. Wow. Most of the days you could have gotten a room in Vegas for $29 plus a resort fee on the strip. So, there's a value trade in Vegas. Uh or people just aren't showing up because it's all the other bull crap that goes in that's too expensive.

25. Everybody knows it's not the hotel room that makes the money. It's all the other crap you got to spend money on. The entertainment, the drinks, the food, whatever. Wow. So, there's almost a little bit of a sense in p of panic here in in this demand falling. I wonder what's going on with the actual numbers here.

26. The only market I could think of that saw a significant shift in demand was Atlantic City. The rest of the countries performed kind of as you'd expect. Okay, so this is more of a reference to Atlantic City. That's fine. So, here's the CEO again. The biggest question is the consumer. Are we going to see that recover?

27. Yeah, they don't know. Are we going to see it continue to improve or recover or do we stall? That's difficult to answer. So, in other words, here we are, you know, halfway through the fourth quarter or a third of the way through the fourth quarter and they still don't know if they're going to get a recovery in Vegas.

28. That's actually not good. This is This is pretty bad. The big carriers are ripping us off. $100 plus a month for the same service that . It's all totally free. The Zero plan is literally $0 per month. No contract, no credit card required. Just bring your own phone and number. Perfect as a second SIM for light users, for travel, two factor authentication, or maybe even your regular use.

29. And if you need more, there's a Helium affordable air plan and infinitity plan way cheaper than the big guys as well with here's the neat thing about Helium as well. You actually tarting at just $5 a month, so everyone , if you're paying a h 100red bucks or worse more per month for phone service, you got to ask yourself, why not check out Helium .

30. Look at this. I've actually got casino revenues up, but total revenues are actually down. Not much, but in this economy where everything is going up on a 3-month basis, you actually saw negative uh uh growth in their year-over-year revenues on this third quarter. So, this third quarter sucked. Hotel went negative.

31. Uh other revenue went negative. Food and beverages went negative. The only thing that was up was casino. So casino was up. Their operating income collapsed. Holy smokes. Look at this. $513 million divided by 644. That's a 20% collapse in operating income for Caesars. Wow. Maybe it's true. Dude, look at the interest.

32. Holy smokes, man. They spent all of their operating income on interest. $576 million on interest and they only took 513 million into operating income. Caesars is full of debt. Long-term debt, 11.6 billion. Long-term financing, $13 billion. That's $24 billion of long-term debt. Look at the bills they have to pay.

33. The current bills they have to pay over the next 12 months. They have 2.2 2 billion in bills to pay, bro. All like they have cash of 42 including their receivables and their restricteds. They have about 1.35 billion in cash and two and receivables, right? And 2.2 billion in bills to pay. They don't even have money to pay their bills because their interest expenses are so high.

34. So, they need to start selling stock or borrowing more. So, let's go to their cash flow statement and see it happen. Let's find out. Cash flow statement. So, they actually they paid off some debt here. That's interesting. Yeah, cuz the interest is so high. They they paid off 1.5 billion, but then they took out 1.2 billion in debt again.

35. They actually spent some money repurchasing their stock. So, on in this last quarter, they did better. They borrowed less. They paid off some debt with some of the cash they have, but now they're they're running out of cash. So, I don't know why you're spending $180 million to try to pump your stock here.

36. I understand why they're paying down debt. This makes sense. And if I look further out, oh, this is 9 months. Oh, I'm sorry. That's 9 months. Oh, wow. So, we don't even know what they did cash flow wise in the last quarter. I bet you in the last quarter they had to take they had to borrow more. That's fascinating.

37. They're not even telling us that. probably because it sucks. Wow. Okay. So, that's interesting. But, you know, some of this could have been driven by last, you know, the first and second quarter where they had extra cash flow and they were able to pay off some of their debt. But, I think their borrowings, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of these borrowings were here, but it's going to get worse.

38. They need to borrow more just to stay ahead or they need to sell stock. So, how's the actual stock performing? So, let's go to Caesars. Uh, if I go to Caesar's Entertainment, the stock's actually up right now, but it's bouncing off a low. Look at this. COVID low on the stock is $6. So, we're still above the COVID low, but look how much this has tanked.

39. Since uh in the last three years, this stock has eviscerated money. In the last three years, this stock is down 83%. 83% crash on Caesar's Entertainment. Probably because these bastards raised prices too much during COVID thinking they were hot stuff. And now people are revoling. People are like, "F you, man.

40. I ain't paying this [ __ ] anymore." Free drinks and free parking. It was the only city in America where a truck driver, a teacher, and a tech executive could sit at the same table and feel like equals. That was the magic that I found looking online. Nobody comes here. It's too expensive. Resort and parking fees are too high.

41. And my Yeah, they the resort fees are bull crap. Personal favorite. Las Vegas is too expensive and it smells bad. So I re well honestly a lot of the hotels are are like let me put it this way. Bellagio used to be lit. Okay now it's kind of like musty and old right like you're see like I went to okay personal experience.

42. So Bellagio little pissed about uh they've kind of fallen apart in my opinion and I had that opinion back in 2019 because I held a real estate conference at Bellagio and like man this kind of sucks. Ironically, the Rio's remodel, the remodeled rooms are quite nice. I went to the win with Lauren uh uh a little bit earlier this year and the service sucked.

43. We were like, "Oh, we're going to have, you know, uh a mommy and daddy trip. It's going to be great." It was just a day trip. The service was bad. And we're like, "This is the win." I think it's just honestly because they have they're trying to cut costs while at the same time uh they're not getting as many revenues.

44. It's down to some local experts to ask them is Las Vegas really dying? To make it worse, they didn't just kick out the lowest end, they kicked out their foundation. Yeah. Well, keep in mind, too, in 2008, Vegas was like the first to go, right? So, like this could be part of the big economic cycle. And as the strip now empties out on weekdays and dealers wait for players who never show the cost of that decision.

45. Oh great. I also just got a headline here asked if the US and Canada will restart negotiations. Trump says no. Great. That lowers the taco scale. Is finally catching up. If you ever walk the strip when it still felt alive hit taxes these which I believe is is simply an unintended consequence. We are forcing these individuals to move offshore.

46. Stevens calls those levies phantom taxes since gamblers can end up paying taxes on money they never saw. Uh I don't think the executives blaming taxes are the problem. I think what it is is, you know, you're charging too much money, man. You guys you guys got greedy. Averaging over $55 a night. Even so-called budget hotels like Excalibur and Luxor charge 45 in fees plus another 20 to 25 just to park.

47. We went to uh the Dorado Hotel. That one's beautiful. Uh cuz it's new construction basically. I think it's like 22 or something. Literally paying to lose money. Republicans for the change, but says both parties need to cooperate to fix it. I don't think anyone Democrat or Republican had any intent on hurting Las Vegas or or for that matter hurting the gaming industry in any sense.

48. This is a reference to the big beautiful bill and the gambler's taxes. That's fine. Uh, okay. So, yeah, this is a $30 cocktail. Okay, so this is the other pisser. If you go to like a UFC fight in Vegas, they'll charge you literally like Lauren's like, "Kevin, get me a cocktail." I'm like, "All right, $40.

49. $40 freaking dollars. That's insane." during the Great Recession when somebody wrote that Las Vegas was the nation's greatest ghost town in waiting, right? And then during the pandemic, we all did it. We all took that walk down the strip when nobody was there. It was unbelievably scary in terms of how are we going to bounce back?

50. And yet still here we are today. It's not how many and now the city is starting to feel it. Visitor volume fell 11% this June with 1 and a.5 million fewer tourists in the first half of the year alone. Right. The strip isn't empty because people forgot about it. It's empty because the house changed the rules and the players walked away.

51. So, a reference to the big beautiful bill and the gambling issue. That's possible as well. But you are also seeing that leisure demand down which is problematic. So, it's they are actually getting hit. This is true. So, like in fairness, I started this segment out by talking about how uh you know, are people just on TikTok like trying to look for some drama?

52. This is actually real. This is happening. Gaming industry for the Nevada Independent. He tells me tourists are getting off the strip. Well, where guess where they're going? Red Rock Resorts, boy gaming properties. They've all did they all did well in the last quarter. It's a lot of locals because locals don't go to the strip.

53. Remember how I just mentioned uh the Dorado Resort? I'm 98% sure the Dorado Resort uh resort Vegas is a Red Rock uh resort. I'm pretty sure Dorado. D what uh El Dorado? I can't find No. Where is it? Not El Dorado. Where is it? What's it called? Why can't I find this darn thing? Vegas. What's this place called that I went to?

54. Dorado Resort. See if I can find it. It's close to Henderson. I don't know. Maybe I'm I got my name wrong on it. Uh but uh let me go to I'll just go to Henderson here. I'll go to Henderson Executive Airport because this is where I did my flight training. And then where is the casino? The one that I'm thinking of is off of County Clark Road by Costco.

55. Durango, not Dorado. Duh, dumbass. Sorry, folks. I I don't have the best. It's right across IKEA. Lord and I were here and we're like, "Hey, we can walk to IKEA." And then we're like, "Bro, it's 100°. We're not going to walk across the highway uh to go to IKEA." But so Durango, they're off strip. It's easier to get to from the Henderson airport.

56. Uh they are it's it's a it's a small resort, but it's really really nice. And I'm pretty sure Durango is a Red Rock resort. Uh let's see here. Hotel Durango. Durango. Durango. Here we go. Durango Hotel and Casino Roads. There it is. Owner Red Rock Resorts. Boom. And opened in uh 2023. That's what I thought.

57. That's the same experience I had. Get off the strip where the service has gone to crap and go to some of these newer resorts. Same thing this guy's saying and aren't going to pay the prices down there. Say the out of town visitors from from Southern California. They're discovering some of the local property.

58. That's me. And it's not just brick and mortar competitors. Online gambling is it. Dude, honestly, having an IKEA next to Durango is like uh you know, it's kind of a plus. Exploding too. In July, we went and had lunch there. And the lunch was like $8. 2025 alone, digital casinos rad in 1 bill780 million, 0, up more than 20% from the year before.

59. Players are swapping plane tickets for phone screens. They can gamble from home, get better odds, correct, and skip. Right. Exactly. That's the thing with the betting markets now. You could do your betting at home. So these are a lot of issues for Vegas. I think they're right about that. Bellagio win AR

60. reported cooling demand from their elite guests. Because here's the thing, the rich don't need Vegas. They can play in we got the stock market, bro. Monaco, Macau or Singapore, where exclusivity feels authentic and privacy is part of the package. Vegas tried to reinvent itself as a luxury playground, but forgot it was already something far more powerful, the People's Casino.

61. The irony is brutal. In trying to escape the chaos that made it famous, Vegas cut out the very soul that kept it alive. The show girls, the slot players, the bus tours, the retirees chasing luck. They were never the problem. They were the heartbeat. Now the strip is learning what every casino should know.

62. You can't outsmart math. When the middle class disappears, even the rich lose the crowd that made them feel rich. Ah, that's interest. That's an interesting line. Um, take that for what it is. But yeah, it makes sense. It makes sense. So, I'm I I have to say I'm I'm surprised. Uh, I thought that a lot of the Tik Tok stuff was honestly just clickbait.

63. uh that Vegas was dying. But I think Vegas is getting the big middle finger, which is y'all raised prices too much. You got too greedy and and now it's going to show up in the corporate earnings. Uh and you know, sucks to suck basically. So, uh that is my assumption here of what's going on. I'm going to look at one more.

64. I'm going to look at Win. So, uh we'll go look at the Win Resorts 10Q. Uh they again I didn't have a great experience at the win. That doesn't necessarily mean their earnings are down but they are an onstrip property. So why don't we go take a look at it. We looked at Caesars and uh so let's look at the win and then we've got here we go.

65. This is Win Resorts Limited. Let's see if they're winning. Wow. Almost no growth in operating revenues as well. 1.7 billion versus 1.737 divided by 1.732. Wow. That's 29 basis points of growth, which uh looks like 0.29% growth. Nothing. Basically negative with inflation. Wow. How's their profit? So their operating income is also down.

66. 264 minus 269 is oh sorry 264 divided by 269 I've got about 1.9% operating income. Yeah. So even the win which is tailored to more of potentially a luxury style customer. Wow. Look at their earnings per share. They're what is it because of interest or what happened here? Oh, they have an other loss of $36 million here.

67. What the hell is the other loss? Because their net income fell like 40% over here. Holy smokes. So, what's other? How do you just write off $34 million and not tell me what it is? You have to tell me what it is. It's going to be in the footnotes here somewhere. Other. Other. Other. I'm very curious now to see what your other is.

68. It's going to be like some restructuring like severance for firing people or whatever. Other long-term debts. They also have a lot of debt. Sucks for them. Uh I debt is like debt's so great when things are going up. But I'll tell you, you know, me personally, like I I'm so grateful for this. I keep talking about it.

69. I'm debtree, no mortgages, no personal debt, nothing, right? My real estate startup, no bank debt. We got a little like a fraction of the assets we have uh for convertible bonds uh to to you folks who who have invested and and trusted us. Uh thank you for that. by the way, we couldn't do it without you.

70. Uh, but thank you uh for the SEC. Make sure you read the offering circular if you're considering investing . Uh, okay. So, other Why can I not I want to find out what happened with the write off. So, I'm just going to command F it because I can't find it. Other property charges. It's like $30 million write off.

71. This is a corporate and other. Okay. Other other non-operating income and expenses. We incurred a foreign currency rmeasurement loss of $36 million because of exchange rate fluctuations of the dollar. Basically, the dollar lost value. Okay. So, the dollar went down. All right. Well, I mean, it's not necessarily Vegas related, but here are the Vegas operations.

72. You could actually see the breakdown. Wow. Macau actually got hit hard, though. It's not like Macau is down 10%. So, it's not just Vegas. Wind's just getting hit across the board here, but Vegas definitely got hit as well. Uh.1% on just Vegas. Operating revenues, rooms down 10.5%. Food and beverage down 6.8%.

73. Entertainment down 5.5%. That's the last 6 months. Wow. Casino revenue decreased primarily due to lower VIP win as a percentage of turnover and mass market table games at Macau, partially offset by an increase in casino revenues from Vegas due to higher gaming volumes during the six months ending June.

74. Yeah, but they talked about also the pain uh really starting in July at Caesars. That's interesting. And these are just some miscellaneous win rates over here. That's fascinating. Table gain wins. Oh, look at this. You could see the percentage of people actually winning at different locations. Table gain wins 18%.

75. VIP win as a percentage of turnover 2%. This is how the casinos make money. Your odds of winning ma as a mass market table 23% sort of the net the net wins. This is how they make all the money is you know they they're taking the 80% side. That's fascinating. That's very interesting. Wow. Occupancy rates here.

76. You can see occupancy rates in Vegas. Wow. The occupancy rates actually kind of suck and they've fallen quite a bit. That's a big drop in occupancy down to 88.3%. And that's before what we saw about July. Yeah, might be true. Vegas is getting whack your take.