저자: DylanLoomis · 외국인
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사이버트럭의 방수 성능과 강을 건너는 시나리오를 소개하고, 고용지표(신규 실업수당 청구 19.3만건)가 예상보다 낮아 연준의 금리 인상이 더 지속될 수 있어 기술주 밸류에이션에 부담이라고 분석. 이후 테슬라 관련 뉴스(기가 베를린 재활용시설 폐쇄명령, Piper Sandler 목표가 조정, 일론 머스크 AI데이 발언, 조 게비아 이사 합류)와 Ron Baron의 테슬라 확신 발언을 전달하며 중간중간 AG1 광고를 함.
다듬은 글
s Doug M and James C thank you for choosing to support the channel so first up today elon's really doing it saying cybertruck will be waterproof enough to serve briefly as a boat so it can cross rivers lakes and even seas that aren't too choppy and he added it needs to be able to get from Star base to South Padre Island which requires crossing the channel so this right here is exactly what Elon has in mind here in these Red Pins We have basically Starbase so Elon saying he wants to be able to go from Star base to South Padre Island which is right up here what stands in between this channel right here which is called the Brownsville Ship Channel again as he said it requires crossing the channel and here we have an image of said Brownsville shipping channel albeit a little bit blurry but there's not a lot of Super HD picture pictures of the Brownsville channel on the internet however it's large enough to show you this is not just some random Creek in the backyard we're talking a fairly significant body of water here and for scale I would say that the Cyber truck at best would be maybe 25 of this red line and you can imagine this the Cyber truck again 25 of this line heading across the channel this channel was also 42 feet deep but there was this once the ship channel is deepened by 10 more feet it will make it the deepest Ship Channel in the Gulf of Mexico at 52 feet 52 feet deep Honestly though in situations like this that clearly do happen it would be pretty nice to have a vehicle capable of something like that and elon's response to anybody saying that driving an Eevee through a puddle is like dropping a toaster in a bathtub he said submarines use electric motors underwater next up at the time of recording so far today Tesla stock is down about six percent now ordinary early I don't care about daily price fluctuations however in this case I think we can actually learn something from what's going on 193 000 John 193 economists were looking for 215 000 so this was well short of estimates actually the lowest number since April so as you allude to we aren't really seeing real pain in the labor market yet this is probably not the kind of data the FED really wants to see when it is trying to engineer some more slack in the labor market first you heard the Bloomberg reporter mentioned adding slack to the labor market as being the fed's goal so a tight labor market is when there are more jobs available than there are workers looking for work basically think about the labor pool of workers being tight there's not a lot of workers of course on the opposite slack in the labor market would be more available workers looking for less available jobs that would be a loose labor market tight is also synonymous with robust as you hear in these different reports so as you heard this morning we got the initial job list claims report now most analysts were expecting between 215 to 218 000 the actual much less 193 000.
the initial jobless claims report is just telling us how many people have filed for that week for unemployment benefits for the first time and if you see continuous jobless claims that's just how many people are continuing to receive unemployment benefits now you may be saying well Dylan isn't a low number four jobless claims a good thing because that means there's not a lot of people that are filing for unemployment people looking to work but can't find it ordinarily yes but this is where we can learn something remember the fed's Dual mandate is maximum employment and stable prices so here on this chart we have the inflation rate as the blue line and we have the unemployment rate as the orange line now this is going back to 2010 so this data is somewhat compressed but you can see we have at least in terms of the last decade or so historically low levels of unemployment and historically high levels of inflation we know the FED is committed to making sure this inflation number comes down as they think this is the most serious threat to the United States economy they're doing that by continuing to raise interest rates on the other hand though right now unemployment is at historically low levels this is one of the main things that people point to to say that we are not yet in the recession because typically a recession is coupled with higher unemployment herein lies a problem of sorts this low unemployment rate right now gives the FED more leeway more of a green light to continue to raise interest rates now as we see unemployment go up it's at that point that the FED will become more likely to Pivot and maybe reduce interest rates however until either this unemployment number shoots up or this inflation comes down we are likely to continue seeing interest rate hikes and we know when that happens what does it do for tech stocks it brings down their valuations because the discount rate that these analysts use to to Discount the future cash flows for companies like Tesla become higher meaning those future cash flows are worth less today not to mention all of the other impacts that we probably won't see for another 6 to 12 months the effects of these higher borrowing costs when it comes to things like mortgages and cars and finally before we move on the biggest question I have is what will the FED do if over the next six to 12 months the unemployment rate shoots up but inflation remains elevated that would be a very unenviable situation for the FED now as always there are some other factors at play here like apple maybe having lower demand for its iPhone but mainly this low jobless claims report is giving the FED that green light to continue to hike rates at potentially a faster Pace to try to bring down inflation because the unemployment rate is still very low so I hope that makes sense and if you guys would like to see more of these little macro or Finance bits in the future please let me know below look be before I even get into this I want you guys to know I have no exaggeration turned down hundreds of sponsorship opportunities because I'm committed to only talking about products or services that I genuinely stand behind and believe in so many of you know I'm all about doing what I can to optimize my energy levels and my overall health so shout out to athletic greens the sponsor of today's video for helping me do just that coming from a few years in the health and wellness industry I can confidently say this is hands down my favorite green strength and it's not that close so as always shout out to Lex Freeman for the tip I'm also a big fan of Simplicity and life and this drink could not be any easier to make just put one scoop and eight ounces of water shake it up and you're good to go every serving truth is I'll be the first person to tell you you everybody's body is different so what I'm saying is you won't know if something like ag1 can improve your overall quality of life unless you try it and if you have the means I'm saying I think it's worth it and I'm telling you right now this deal is not going to be around forever I want to keep these sponsors interesting so that's all I'm gonna say but for now ag1 is still offering a year's 'm just saying I think your Wellness is worth a shot next up you've probably heard by now that Joe gebbia the founder of Airbnb has joined Tesla's board I just wanted to add he said the primary reason for this transition him stepping down from Airbnb is that that's the only company he's ever helped to build and his brain is bursting with more ideas to bring to the world and quickly in case you're not familiar with what the board of directors does specifically at Tesla they have different basically subcommittees one of which is the sustainability committee they bring together the information for Tesla's impact report and then present that data to the board for the board to ultimately review and approve the board of directors also reviews the effectiveness of different priorities initiatives and programs evaluates the corporate governance structure practices and policies for the company considers the shareholder feedback so as everybody now knows watching Tesla shareholder meetings when shareholders have the option to present proposals the board is responsible for reviewing a set of proposals and they identify and evaluate candidates for re-election to the board and the latest edition of Joe gebia takes Tesla's board back to eight members shifting gears back to EV land we have berlinergy on Twitter sharing an update on this fire recycling situation at gig in Berlin first the cause of the fire still unknown second now we have the state office for the environment ordering Tesla to shut down the recycling center and all its facility abilities again this has nothing to do with the actual Factory producing cars this is just that separate removed recycling center that Tesla had commissioned apparently without a permit state office said within 14 days Tesla must submit a concept to the lfu on how the waste stored there is to be removed everything is to be removed by the end of October again this shredding or recycling facility apparently has been operated without a permit the state office is also saying this would have happened even without the fire the storage yard is not being operated lawfully at the time one of the main environmental concerns is the soil and the groundwater being contaminated on that point some of that soil has been excavated to a depth of a half a meter at the recycling site basically taking samples no results just yet so again this has nothing to do with Giga Berlin itself being shut down this is just for that recycling storage site that's currently being ordered to be shut down but we'll see if Tesla can weasel its way out of this one maybe get a permit or talk to the authorities we'll wait and see next up we have a new note from Piper Sandler on Tesla stock bumping down their price Target from 360 to 340.
however they said they've been getting a lot of questions about Tesla in China and of course this demand situation to which they said number one we see no evidence of market share erosion in China any changes are likely due to Tesla's own build rates the capacity expansion and should the market share begin falling Tesla can easily emphasize exports and or cut average sale prices this should sound very familiar they've also reduced their Q3 estimate to 354 000 putting them at 1.36 million for the year here we have some updates from Elon on AI day I think this is perfect for me it's definitely a splash of cold water on my face for the upcoming AI event first he said note this event is meant for recruiting Ai and robotics engineers so it will be highly technical again that's why I said the other day I know most of it will be right up here he also said as well as advanced chip and supercomputer Engineers for next-gen training and inference and in response to Steven's tweet about what he's expecting for reactions to AI day which was actually a pretty funny tweet but in case you guys have kids watching I won't put it on the screen but Elon said pretty much AI robotics engineers who understand what problems need to be solved will like what they see I clearly am excluded from this specific cohort but I still think that I'm going to like whatever it is I see and finally Elon said there will be lots of technical detail and cool Hardware demos next up I love this tweet from Elon because it's really a sign of the times he said it's the last coal shipment arriving in Hawaii at the same time as Tesla mega pack batteries that will enable 24 7 sustainable energy what's also cool is already Hawaii has deployed the highest level of solar per capita in the country and of course pairing that with battery energy storage is the way here we have yet again Apple changing the number of drivers in its car Fleet apparently trying to be like Tesla this should take apple to 180 drivers total and they're still testing those Lexus SUVs equipped with lidar Radars and cameras and who really knows but as far as we can tell Apple's project Titan still has the goal of delivering a self-driving EV without a wheel by 2025.
in case you've never seen one of these Apple cars here's a picture next up Porsche's IPO is now complete valuing company initially at 72 billion dollars more importantly though we have some conflicting information Reuters is saying that this raised 19.5 billion euros for VW for this electrification movement but we have both the New York Times and Bloomberg saying that this IPO actually only raised around 9.1 billion dollars for VW to use for electrification again New York Times has it at 9.1 billion dollars so I believe that's the correct amount here we have Lordstown Motors actually building its in endurance pickup truck for commercial customers so far they've built two trucks and are aiming for 50 by the end of the year hopes to increase production next year but may need to raise cash first next up the other day we talked about how GM was unwinding its work from home initiative basically calling people back to corporate offices well fast forward a day or two and now they're softening on their stance because employees pushed back on Tuesday a second message walked back the original timing calling people back to the office and clarified that the company won't be mandating specific in-office days instead leaving that decision to individual teams the follow-up message says no workers will be required to return to offices sooner than the first quarter of next year basically pushing back when people need to come back a GM spokesperson said the timing of the return to office has shifted but the overall plan has not really changed last up today I spent the last 10 or 15 minutes trying to open this article created a free account did all of the things nothing worked luckily Sawyer said Ron Baron said we see so much potential we don't want to sell of all the companies I cover and the analysts come pitch to me the company I feel the most confidence in is Tesla people think we're going into a Slowdown but demand for their cars has never been better now sure you could probably argue this second part if you really wanted to however overall conviction is still high don't forget check out ag1 linked below while you can foreign
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