저자: DylanNewman · 외국인
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테슬라 중심으로 전기차 수요가 기대보다 빠르게 성장하고 있으며, 경쟁 완성차사들은 대응이 늦다고 주장. 연준 금리 인하 이후에도 과거 사례처럼 주가가 추가 하락할 수 있다는 점을 강조. 모간스탠리를 인용해 테슬라의 IRA 세액공제 수혜와 높은 마진, 장기 현금흐름 전망을 긍정적으로 평가.
다듬은 글
welcome to electrified it's your host Dylan Newman so first up today I just want to highlight a few things from this Wall Street Journal article first every now and then I think it's important to remind ourselves that still according to the latest data only around six percent of new car sales are EVS sometimes us being in evland it feels like a lot higher than that but still 94 of all new car purchases are internal combustion engine Vehicles so think about what Tesla's business will look like when this number is 15 30 50 we're still just getting warmed up second this article went on to talk about how many different CEOs have been surprised by the demand for their first electric vehicles meaning most of these companies are still reactionary and scrambling to try to catch up with the demand because their initial expectations were we'll just dip our feet in the water and see what happens well things are taking off a lot faster than expected third they gave an update on GM the company has been making the Hummer and lyric at rates of less than a dozen a day people familiar tell you what the matter said they've been constrained by battery supplies according to a GM spokesperson we just heard that Tesla is basically no longer constrained by battery supplies for the first time in years Tesla has been able to get enough battery supply now yes this will change next year with 4680s but for all other product lines that was awesome news and finally this quote from a Ford exec really just sums up this whole article Executives from traditional car companies were too cautious on their early plans for electric here's the quote we sat around and said who really wants an electric truck we don't know this really should highlight the gap between Tesla on one hand going all in dating Back to Before 2010 and the rest of these automakers most of whom are still now sitting around saying we don't really know who's going to want EVs and what type and on that note this whole headline some of these traditional automakers saying that their gas powered cars are going to generate profits to help launch their EV businesses well that may be true now but the question is how long will that last you have to remember as economies of scale come down yes maybe certain models have higher demand because the internal combustion engine demand will have to concentrate around a fewer number of models however generally speaking most gas cars over the next few years are going to be producing Less in terms of volume and when you have fixed Factory costs that just means lower and lower margins and just so you know I'm not making this up this was a great tweet from James Stevenson talking about some people are now starting to worry about Tesla's demand you shouldn't but here is some data visualization to back that up pause the screen if you'd like but it's very simple data we just have data for Ford GM and Tesla from 2016 to 2021 and it's just Global vehicle deliveries you see the trend for Ford you see the trend for GM and you see the trend for Tesla once again just getting started so James if you're watching good stuff as always next up I think this is super important yesterday I had mentioned everyone is waiting for the FED to Pivot when it comes to interest rates personally I think a pivot actually means reducing rates not just lowering the rate at which interest rates are going up this is crucial because I think now a lot of people are just expecting that whenever the FED Cuts interest rates for the first time whether it's next year 2024 that the market is just going to start to rip from there however I saw Ben Cowan talking about this the other day so this blue line is going to be the interest rate or the federal funds rate currently 3.25 and the orange line is going to be the s p 500.
these three yellow lines are going to be the last time where the FED started to drop the interest rate so back in 2019 you see it right here look what happened after that the S P 500 actually did dip now you can't see it it looks very small because this is on a logarithmic scale but here's one you can see better going back to 2007 where the FED started to lower interest rates right here look what happened into the s p after they started lowering rates it still dipped after that it dipped to the tune of 56 percent over the course of almost two years and one more going back to 2001 where the FED started to lower interest rates right here once again the S P 500 still continued to decline for some time after that in that case it went down another 35 percent over the course of around two years and lastly in all three cases the s p started to rip higher once the Fed was actually done lowering the rates you see it right here here's where they finished lowering rates and the stock market took off and the third time once again they stopped lowering rates right here and that's basically where the s p started its upward Trend so of course this guarantees nothing but I think it's really interesting and something to keep in mind now I have to say I know that some situations are out of our control but I am a firm believer in planting good seeds where we can So eventually we can read a good harvest and yes that's part of why I've linked up with athletic greens the sponsor of today's video I've been taking ag1 now dating back to last year after seeing Lex Friedman mention it I spent three years in the health and wellness industry and let me tell you most people would be well served just by boosting their vitamin and mineral intake too many people are deficient in key minerals and the modern diet stinks ag-1 the all in pod actually just got done talking about the importance of gut health anyway I just mixed one scoop in eight ounces of water and my Superfood drink is then ready to enjoy and as someone who was hospitalized from a nasty stomach virus last year that I'm still experiencing lingering effects from I can promise you gut health is far more important to our overall well-being than most people realize age G1 is also independently certified by NSF so you know you're actually getting what's on the label ag1 has offered to provide a f you'd like to support your overall well-being take a look into athletic greens next up a Reddit user shared this in the mobile app now in the service section you may be able to check your CCS adapter retrofit status most people don't have dates yet but they say coming soon in 2023 but this should give you a good idea if your car does indeed actually need a retrofit to be able to use the new CCS adapter you should also be able to check your additional vehicle information in your car and check CCS adapter support whether it's installed or not sticking with a Tesla Service situation we have this tweet from Joe tetmeyer he shared some screenshots basically asking Tesla Service why he hasn't received the FSD beta update he checked all of the boxes and all year he still hasn't received it apparently time and time again service just told him you have all of the hardware and everything that you need you just have to be patient for the firmware update but contrary to what Tesla Service has told Joe now Elon is chiming in saying your car needs a camera upgrade which is free of charge there are a few thousand cars in a similar situation replacement cameras will be available early next month but to add more confusion to the situation Joe then replied saying I already had my cameras upgraded by Tesla for free as part of the necessary upgrade back in February of this year so the point of this was not to just confuse everybody but to let you know that if you haven't yet received the FSD beta maybe look into this camera upgrade if it's the only thing you can think of why you haven't yet received it here we have local news Chris 6 reporting that Tesla's new lithium Refinery that's proposed for the Gulf Coast of Texas is now going to have a scheduled hearing for the public next week at 2PM on Monday Nueces County Commissioners will hold a special meeting where the public can learn more about the project and voice their opinion on the plan next up it's always very important to remember this fact any lessons from Tesla that you adopted to SpaceX well the automotive industry is very good at manufacturing and the rocket industry is good at Advanced Materials and making things light so that's where the cross-pollination is most useful is taking manufacturing techniques from Automotive applying them to rockets taking Advanced Materials and design from rockets and applying them to cars here we have a Tesla recall but I won't bury the lead this is yet another minor software update the problem the window automatic reversal system may not react correctly after detecting and obstruction disaffecting just over a million Vehicles a closing window May exert excessive force by pinching a driver or passenger before retracting increasing the risk of injury the remedy Tesla will perform an OTA software update of the automatic window reversal system free of charge charge on this very topic Elon chimed in saying that the terminology is outdated and inaccurate this is a tiny over-the-air software update to the best of our knowledge there have been no injuries moving on shortly after we heard Ford was going to take a one billion dollar hit this quarter due to inflationary pressures now we get some more color on that situation it's pretty simple automotive industry suppliers are now raising their prices to their customers across the board their customers being Automotive companies suppliers contacted by Reuters said they have raised prices on Parts in the range of 7 to 20 percent an executive at an aluminum parts maker had said in Europe alone natural gas and electricity prices are almost 10 times what they were two years ago thanks to the Russia Ukraine situation and even in the United States those prices are five times higher throw in the tight labor market and there's the higher compensation required to attract workers there's no improvement in sight this story really is one that we've heard now for a long time the suppliers say things won't likely change anytime soon it's the new economic reality and will continue to fight for financial relief basically fighting going to the automakers asking for more money on that note today Ford put out a new press release basically saying they're reorganizing some executive positions to better focus on the global supply chain to restructure some things and to more better focus on new electric vehicles and software-based cars now I won't read through which executive is doing what I don't think a majority of you are really that interested however go ahead and pause the screen if you'd like to see who's going to be doing what exactly the main takeaway really is this developing and scaling the next generation of electric and software-defined vehicles requires a different focus and mix of talent from the accomplished for team and many new exciting colleagues joining our company as I highlighted above Ford has brought in some new Talent previously from HP Google motional Intel and apple second biggest takeaway Ford is transforming its Global Supply Chain management capability ability to support efficient and reliable sourcing of components internal development of key Technologies and capabilities and world-class cost and quality execution and lastly it should not go overlooked that Doug field yes previously from Tesla is taking on an expanded role as the chief of advanced product development and the technology officer as Ford Model E its Electric Division sales and digitally enabled vehicles and here's the resume of Doug field as far as I can tell he's an absolute stud and a major get for Ford and its future next up GM is closing reservations for the Hummer both the pickup and the SUV as they're starting to realize producing less than 100 a day is going to take them years to fulfill this backlog that apparently sits around ninety thousand GM will officially close reservations for both vehicles this Thursday so anybody that wants one you better get your order in by Wednesday the Hummer EV went into production earlier this year and so far this year at the end of June the company has sold less than 400 of of these vehicles the SUV version of the Hummer is expected to arrive to dealers in early 2023.
the global head of GMC said we knew it would be a slow ramp referring to the Hummer pickup truck version but next year when you look at the calendar year I think you'll see a normalized year Honestly though this is really just following the trend for some of these legacy's first EVS next up from Automotive news Toyota has been forced to cut its Global Production plan by a hundred thousand vehicles in October and 50 000 in November when they said just last month they wanted to make 900 000 a month from September to November but now it sees output at 800 000 in October and averaging only 850 000 from October through December and along similar lines now today Honda is also saying it will reduce car output by up to 40 percent at two Japanese plants early in October next up GM has announced a new partnership and investment in a little-known recycling company lithion to create a circular EV battery ecosystem this new collaboration will focus on validation of lithium's recovered battery materials for the use and production of new batteries and potential to acquire battery materials and Joint investment in research and development for both recycling processes and recyclability of future battery design here we have in gadget reporting that x-pang's G9 SUV is now the world's fastest charging EV apparently it can charge up to 480 kilowatts and remember Tesla's V3 superchargers are only at 250 kilowatts there are some Electrify America stations that are supposed to be up to 350 so this definitely would be a first however remember it's all about the charging curve not just the top speed and you also have to ask how is this going to impact the Cycles or the number of charging and discharging Cycles the battery can go through in its lifetime and earlier this year it was reported that Tesla could be increasing its V E3 charging speeds to around 324 kilowatts but we have yet to see that in the field here we have a new SpaceX filing and in the first paragraph you can see they're looking to benefit American students as quickly as possible not only at home but on their way to and from school further SpaceX therefore strongly agrees with chairwoman Rosen warsel that providing Wi-Fi on school buses is critical to Bridging the homework Gap connecting school buses will afford students the ability to optimize their commute time for necessary educational internet use as well as time spent with family and friends or recreational activities moving on personally I'll be very impressed if Faraday future still exists in another five years or so however this is worth talking about they just got an EPA range of 381 miles for its ff91 vehicle which at first seems pretty legit Until you realize that it takes a 130 kilowatt hour pack to get that range knocking it down another Peg or two or three this vehicle is set to start at three hundred thousand dollars which is yes more than twice the amount of a Model S or X plaid last up for today we get a new Tesla stock note from Morgan Stanley and Adam Jonas titled the birth of an American green Shoring Powerhouse the intro is awesome he says Tesla's Evie prowess is well known I would argue it's really not that well known but anyway what is less known is the company's potential to drive battery manufacturing efficiencies at Terra scale that investors will value with a supply chain that the department of energy May value even more the more we look at the IRA inflation reduction act the more concerned we feel for Tesla's competition Adam talks about some of the comments Martin Vieja made last week but he said why this is important it suggests Tesla's ability to reduce cost is not limited to the battery cell or the pack in our view the reduction in cost of goods sold per unit can continue falling with continual learnings higher volumes per skew more economies of scale we talk about that a lot but greater efficiency and supply chain and other factors this is basically exactly why I said the other day that personally I think Tesla can sustain margins above 30 percent before you really even factor in anything significant from the software as a service side as I said especially once the economies of scale at Berlin and Austin are ramped and on the IRA they said it further unleashes the latent power of U.S regulatory support and the arsenal of democracy and fostering onshore battery manufacturing at scale if Tesla makes around 3 million EVS just in the United States by 2030 assuming a ten thousand dollar Ira boost per vehicle could be worth over 30 billion dollars to Tesla And to clarify given no change in the ira as it's currently written Tesla stands to potentially benefit in the amount of 55 billion dollars of tax credits from 2023 to 2030 from production tax credits alone saying right here we note that this does not include stimulus on the demand side at seventy five hundred dollars per car the consumer tax credit which doesn't directly go to Tesla Morgan Stanley saying in their opinion the production tax credits remember that's the 35 dollars per kilowatt hour to make battery sales and the ten dollars per kilowatt hour to make the modules are vastly more achievable than consumer credits the 7 500 when considering the feasibility of completely eliminating all minerals from foreign entities of concern which we believe will be extraordinarily difficult to achieve for any EV manufacturer even Tesla and lastly we believe that investors don't yet appreciate the sheer magnitude of this bill for the first time since its 2010 IPO Tesla May soon find itself as a consensus long in the Institutional Investor community that has never happened before and check this out they're saying through 2030 we forecast Tesla to generate an aggregate of 351 billion dollars of free cash flow by contrast we forecast GM to generate approx ultimately 35 billion or one tenth of Tesla's free cash flow and lastly Jonas says Elon Musk as U.S energy Ambassador he goes on to talk about master plan part 3 and AI day but to conclude he said will Tesla's emergence as a U.S infrastructure player drive a narrative shift powerful enough to onboard longtime Skeptics in the name yes yes we think so it's tough to end a video any better than that don't forget check out ag1 linked below to get your freebies ] thank you
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