저자: EdCarson · 외국인
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8월 4일 시장은 나스닥·S&P500 등 주요 지수가 하락 마감하며 약한 한 주를 보냈다. 나스닥은 21일선 아래로 밀렸지만 50일선 위를 유지했고, 실적시즌 부진과 국채금리 상승이 부담으로 꼽혔다. 반도체(SMH)·소프트웨어(IGV) 등 주도 섹터가 10주선 부근까지 밀렸으며 지지 여부가 관건이라고 진단했다. 브로드컴은 베이스 형성 중이라 추가 조정이 나오면 더 좋다고 봤고, 델타항공은 질서 있는 조정 후 지지 확인이 필요하다고 봤다. 토ll브라더스는 반등에 거래량이 부족하다는 평가. 다음 주는 방어적 태도를 유지하며 점진적 대응을 권고했다.
다듬은 글
thank you foreign good afternoon everyone and welcome to stock market today it's Ali Corman Ed Carson with a look at the action in today's session Friday August 4th and a look at how the week unfolded plus will give you your battle plan for the week ahead that's to come but for today Ed wasn't a great session and it was a bit of a tough week we saw downside sorry A bird just flew into my window sorry I like jumped I guess maybe the market kind of like hit us like that uh today a little bit Ed with downside reversals and for the NASDAQ at a pretty key level yeah yeah so gonna look at all that do want to look at a few stocks that are setting up we'll see if it's a setup or a setup uh broadcom Delta Airlines and Toll Brothers I like it uh all right let's take a look at the major indexes first so the NASDAQ today down four times of a percent same for the Dow the S P 500 down a half a percent small caps hit less hard today the Russell 2000 down two tenths of a percent but as you can see here for the NASDAQ resistance now at 14 000 and that 21 day moving average yeah so that was disappointing it's like okay you know around midday or early afternoon like all the major indexes they're moving above or rebounding from their 21 day lines here we go you know nice nice Shore up of support yeah it was a down week no big deal I mean this may end up constructive it wasn't like a route this week it wasn't terrible this was a this was not a good week uh I think it was the worst week for the NASDAQ and the s p since March so uh yeah but uh so still close to the 21 Day line still above the 50-day line 10 week lines but you have to be you know this was definitely a serious losses that it was a the downside reversal it's not exactly clear why there was reports of a Cyber attack that hit things but treasury olds which knocked the market to start the week and we'll get to that later they came down today and the market looked like it was going to rally on that and then then that faded I mean so it's a little discouraging it does suggest that maybe you know like again for the past few weeks we've seen more chop I mean there was a steady rise in May and and I guess into June I mean there's a little bit of a dip the last few weeks I mean the NASDAQ is basically sort of down for the past three weeks I think we're basically where we were like on July 12th you know which was a nice day that was but since then if you've been making buys where there's a good chance they're underwater um you know especially if you did it ever since then and that's just made it difficult uh you know but this could be a positive refreshes It's just tough right now exactly and not to mention underneath the surface this is something that you noted earnings season was tough this week there there were a lot of busts there were a couple of booms but a lot of busts Ed and even on reports that on the surface looked like okay reports but the reaction was just not good at all yeah a couple a couple quarters ago you could see companies saying yeah there's okay results and they were cutting guidance and yet you'd still see the stocks rally off of that and this time is like they were beating and raging guidance but it wasn't raising enough in some cases uh yeah the higher bar it treacherous and while earning season is past its peak it's it's not over for sure okay yeah like you said pause that uh refreshes that would be great I mean this uh Tech heavy index hasn't even come down to that 50-day line yet and looking at past strong bull markets you do see some of those consolidations that come down to the 50-day line so it's not out of the question I guess that's the other thing too is it seems likely or likelier that we could get a test of that 50-day line but just because we've closed below the 21 Day line doesn't mean that this rally is now doomed and that we've peaked no absolutely but it doesn't yeah I mean I mean every bear Market starts with something but I mean it's like oh yeah that does seem unlikely it seems like uh Charles Harris was saying you don't normally see a bear Market just and like a you know end so quickly uh but we could have you know we'll just have to see you don't know I mean we look February to March wasn't very much fun and we didn't really take off until early May so you know in hindsight oh that's fine this is great this was bullish it wasn't so much fun at the time you know especially if you were buying in right at the top there in early February so uh you know you have to keep that perspective both ways and uh you know there'll probably be better opportunities to be buying later but just it's more of a wait and see time right now and uh we'll stick with the weekly charts how about that Ed as we just quickly look at the S P 500 here coming down with a decline of over two percent this week it's now about one percent above the 10-week moving average the Dow is about 1.8 percent above its 10 week and the Russell 2000 holding it perhaps a little bit better it's three percent above its 10 week moving average Ed your thoughts on Blue Chips small caps yeah I mean so saw some weakness and we'll just have to we'll have to see again I I don't think this was a decisively this was a breaking we the market rally is under pressure it's still it's still a market rally it's not a correction it's not a full-throated bear bull market you know we're just sort of sort of in between right now and you already mentioned these in your treasure yields we could just briefly take a look at this uh coming off uh quite a bit today but still uh pretty uh notable week up more than uh two two points or so or it's a it's above the four percent level that key level that we've been uh keeping an eye on an intra week hitting its highest levels in many many months yeah getting close to a 15-year High actually uh but we fell back below that 4.09 level and it was interesting the two-year yield which is more closely aligned with fed policy that failed 10 basis points today and for the week so while the 10-year treasure was Rising uh the short end was actually coming down and let's also take a look at the dollar because it was going up and up and up uh for a while pulling back in the last two days of the week but now finding support at least as of this moment at the 200 day line versus hitting resistance there yeah bond market dollar their inflection points too I mean they're all just sort of uh you know they're all interlocked with each other okay now I'm gonna Breeze through some different sector and thematic ETFs and if at the end of that you have anything else to add Ed let me know and we can uh we can Circle back but I'll go to the weekly charts of SMH tracking the chips down this week by about 3.9 percent now touching or almost touching that 10 week line for the first time since the breakout that occurred for the sector in mid-may next on the list let's take a look at igv software which has been another leading group this year also taking a pretty hard hit this week down three and a half percent and now touching its own 10-week line as well so a key juncture for these leading groups are they going to find support at this 10 week and bounce or if they continue to digest the gains and build bases is that what's going to be in the cards so we'll have to see with those two groups xli Industrials have also been picking up the pace in recent weeks of taking a little bit of a break this week down 1.8 percent still holding above its 10 week line then we have xme the metals and Mining group we were starting to see progress above the 40-week line but pulling in a little bit this week down 1.9 percent closing right around that 40 week then we have XLE the energy trade up this week by about 1.2 percent this is the fourth week up in a row in the second week back above the 40-week line and we have XLV Healthcare taking a bit of a break as well this week down 2.1 percent but not as hard hit by any means as uh chips and software and then we have ITB this is the home Construction Group down but off lows this week so trading in a relatively tight range uh compared with where it was last week down less than one percent and then I YT this is the transports after it looks like five weeks up in a row down 3.3 percent this week but still nicely above that 10-week moving average so with all that being said Ed your assessment what can we gather from what we've seen underneath the service with the moves in these various groups I mean there's broad-based weakness for sure at the same time you could see that there's broad strength in the sense that there's been a lot of sectors that are still looking pretty good and you could imagine bounces uh I could imagine investors who are thinking I'd like to get into Tech and software but I'm worried about all these earnings I'd like to if SMH and igv could bounce like those would be things oh I could buy those uh rather than you know and and not have the single stock risk I mean just but you could say the same about some other sectors as well so uh you know again you know look we could we're at key levels for a lot of things but it could be very positive it could be very negative and you know we could something right away but it may take we could also go sideways for a while so we'll have to see what next week brings us uh opportunities to buy our ad or or to sell more in the league we'll have to see what we get and next on our list we want to take a look at one chip name in particular and that is broadcon the ticker here abgo down this weekend but honestly not by much this is looking very orderly and arguably broadcom could use a little bit more of a pullback here yeah this was an odd looking base since the left-hand side of the base was on this weird Spike downward reversal and just that always looks strange like how much is that really the left side of a base it's almost like a like a where a room is separated by a curtain not an actual door is that really is that really the start of something I don't know but it has tightened up it has titanated like on a weekly chart it had a three weeks tight I'm not sure if it actually became a four weeks tight um it actually is a little too much of a drop but actually a drop down towards the 10-week line would give less of a wedgy feel to this base I mean it just sort of you know you take out that day there is no base you know that one day on the left-hand side so having this come down a little bit here I think it'd be really nice the RS line is holding up great I mean that's just right at highs so uh again you know you could see and move out to high you could see a test the 10 week and balance up uh but so I think this is acting uh quite well it really is and yeah I think a I think a little ShakeOut might be nice so glad we like those handles on bases right that last little ShakeOut of week holders and hey even better if it can coincide with the bounce off of the 50 day next on our list let's take a look at Delta Airlines d-a-l which has been a leader in the airline group it's been pulling back in an orderly fashion over the last couple of weeks and is now finding support at a logical level so this too potentially setting up for a bounce yeah it could be or it could go the other way and it just is a good point and orderly this is the way you'd like to see it I mean there were a couple of high volume days but most of it was on declining volume uh and it's and that was actually a support day yeah you're right that was you're right that was a support day so after once we got that first little sell-off there um that was that was the issue there on the one hand this is the best looking stock in the airlines on the other hand some of the other airlines don't look so good I mean you might find a foreign one that looks better but in terms of the US Airlines this looks the best uh but yeah this one could show I know it's got uh and try travel had a mixed week there were some winners but there was also definitely some losers in this so you know uh if you get a bullish bounce you know to get above this trend line that you sort of Drew get above the 21 Day line that could be actionable you could sort of see this action as a handle to a two-year base if you if you wanted to or you know though to be honest if it came up to that point it would probably Forge a new base by that time um right there but so there's reasons where you could you could look at that uh again but this one might break down there's no reason to have to do anything right now uh you know it's probably uh some people buy on weakness that's not really usually our style and because this could break right through it I mean it would not be shocking for this to fall six percent next week and it's like well I guess we can put that to the side yeah wait wait for that strength after the pullback that can be helpful and now let's take a look at tool this is Toll Brothers in the uh Builder group bouncing off of its 50-day line but did it bounce with conviction Ed no it didn't not well then it didn't bounce with volume but I gotta say overall the week was pretty impressive and we looked at the home builders already yields really shot up uh and and the home builders just didn't fall that much I mean you know given given the huge rally they've had uh you know it finally fell a little bit on Thursday but didn't you know came down to the 50-day line 10-week line so I think if you get a nice bouncer yes it would be nice to have volume uh it does seem sometimes volume is lacking but it's nice to see it that's for sure uh and there's some other names in here I know Lennar was our stock of the day so there's others that look like this a fair amount so you can decide you can look around the numbers you can look and you know uh or go for an ETF because this is this isn't this is a group where they really do tend to move together it's not like the solar stocks or some other names where it's like you don't know where they're all going uh but but you know uh some of those things tend to move together so I think that that would be something if it moves out look treasure yields are obviously going to have an impact on this but there still seem to be some uh Tailwinds for this uh you know could be a place to to buy or add on uh with all the caveats how much do you really want to be adding right with all that being said though it does look like a compelling setup so if we can get the market a recovery and place that would be great to see to have that uh bit of wind in its sales to to help fuel the potential gains here all right Ed what do we need to be thinking about for the week ahead well I you know and investors still want to be having someone at the defensive stance they might have taken some profits trimmed exposure some in the past week they if the market continues to weaken they'll want to continue doing that maybe more aggressively because the market may start especially if the market breaks below the 50-day lines uh not there yet uh if we Market on the other hand turns around you know probably want to add stuff gradually because the past few weeks we've seen a lot of up and down action I mean in the long one you'll say well it was a sideways range but there was a lot of ups and downs just today if you bought on the highs right you know just on the just on the market like the NASDAQ was down by about one and a half percent and a lot of stocks were down a lot more than that so uh just uh do so gradually because so you don't get caught out in that situation but there are a lot of stocks setting up potentially setting up will they turn out or not but you definitely want to be ready for that looking for those early entries so definitely work on your watch list this week uh and look at your portfolio see what you want to cut out there's a lot to do because you there's a lot that could be good or bad in the next few days so you're going to need to do a lot of work on both sides and right and it's like and this is important this is your money and so you want to be doing this work because there could be really opportunities there could be a lot of risks and so you want to be prepared for both going into the next week or two exactly yeah being prepared for all those scenarios and it's okay to have a thesis on what could happen as long as you are willing to change that if you are presented information that is counter to that thesis you know the uh cup half full scenario is hey this could set up a lot of great buying opportunities but we just have to be patient and with us being at a critical juncture like you are so great at reminding us that we could see this fail we could see this fail we don't have to bounce here we could see more destruction so we've got to be prepared for that too all right everyone thanks so much for watching and we hope you have a great weekend we'll be back with more on Monday morning on IBD live investors.com iblive for all the details on that we'll see you there and we'll also see you of course at the close Monday afternoon see you then
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