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If you own 200 share of Tesla, you can become a millionaire by 2031. That is according to Arch Invest later prediction in their bull case scenario. And here's the crazy part. Even their base case uh put Tesla about like 4,400 per share. Today we are like what like 340 350. So for 350 to 4,400 that is like basically just the base case scenario.
I own Tesla SpaceX as you guys know and and when I saw this number behind this prediction, I had to dig a little bit deeper, right? And Arch Invest just dropped as you guys know the new Tesla price target 4,400 per share by third by 2031. That is a 17.5 trillion company valuation. And the bullcase is even higher 5,000 per share.
That is over 20 trillion company. proud shareholder of both Tesla and SpaceX. I drive a Cyber Truck. I use FSD almost every day and I'm very bullish on what Elon Musk [snorts] is building. But even me, uh, I need to kind of like look a couple of times at these prediction at these numbers because ARC is basically say Tesla could become one of the most valuable company in the human history in just five years or less at five years.
And uh after looking at their model, I actually understand why they think this is possible. They are not beating uh they are not betting on Tesla selling more EVs. Uh they are not betting on Tesla selling more wise. They are betting on million of robotaxis and Optimus robot making money every single day.
And if that work, we are looking at a completely different company. Tesla made around 95 billion in revenue in 2025. AR expect 145 trillion by 2031. That is more than 15 times bigger. They also expect a 68% gross margin and a 61% IBIDA margin. IBIDA is basically earning before interest, taxes, a sum of other costs.
It's not the same as profit, but we are talking about almost 900 billion in annual Ebida. That is an incredible amount of money. So where does he they take all this money or where this money come from? Mostly the robot taxi guys. I expect Tesla to have 8.1 million robot taxis working by 2031. And those cars could generate 7 753 billion a year in revenue for Tesla.
That is almost eight times Tesla inter revenue from last year from 2025 just from robo taxes. Now, here's the part I love like uh did today Tesla sell you a car and make you money from that car or from that sale one time she and maybe also the full self driving. But with the robo taxes, Tesla could keep making money every time somebody take a ride and it would even need to you don't even need to own a car anymore.
Regular people could own a cyber cab and put in a Tesla network. Image being retired and having a car making money while you are home traveling or sleeping. I've talked I've talked about this many time on my channel. The idea of turning something that normally cost you money into something that could actually pay you.
Of course, you still have insurance, charging, cleaning, repairs, a Tesla share. But I love that business model. And here's some simple math. 753 billion divide by 8.1 billion robbo tax is about 93,000 per car every year. That is around 255 per day in revenue for Tesla. And remember Arc is talking about the Tesla net ride revenue, not necessarily the total month passenger pay.
They are pretty aggressive number. I know their cars would need to be working a lot and every day and people would need to use them every day as well. I use full self drive almost uh daily and in my cyber truck in my model Y and I will see how much the software has improved not just my life but the way when I arrive to a location I'm fresh like a rose but I also understand that FSD supervise is not the same as a car driving around without anybody behind the wheel Tesla still need to prove it they can do safely in many cities with millions of car But look how far full safer driving are coming in the last five years.
I remember the first um version of full self driving. He was actively tried to kill you. I remember every cross light that I was passing was like we made it. That is why I would dismiss I I don't want to dismiss this idea because I saw the progress. The technology is improving like amazingly. The real question is how quickly Tesla can turn into a business that makes serious money and arc believe robotax could actually um account for almost 80% of Tesla's future enterprise value.
[snorts] So that the 4,400 price tag depend heavily on robot taxi actually working at a massive scale. Now, Optimus is another part of the story. Ark expect Tesla to sell around 1 million Optimus robot to outside customer. So, outside of Tesla and SpaceX by 2031 and they expect the robot business to generate around 212 billion in annual revenue.
Think about how many business could use robots. Factory, warehouse, hotel, hospitality, restaurant, and eventually our home, our house, our garden, our backyard, our pool. I would love to have an Optimus home. Believe me, if [snorts] it can clean the house, do the laundry, take care of the yard. I'm buying one.
Actually, I know my wife would probably need two. by arc is but but arcs but arcs isn't expecting Tesla to make money only by selling robot they also looking at the robot as a service a business could pay Tesla every month to use an optimus so Tesla could keep getting paid for the work that the robot does it's similar to a robot access business Tesla building the machine and the machine can keep earning [snorts] money and if a million of robots are doing useful work every day you can use uh how this you can see how this could become a huge business.
Of course, Tesla still has to prove this robot can work without constant human help and building a million useful robot is a lot harder than showing a robot doing a demo. But I think the opportunity is real. Maybe Arc is right about 20 or maybe or maybe will take maybe another four years, maybe until 2035.
I don't know. Nobody know. But I would ignore a business that could eventually put millions of robot to work. A Tesla is going to need a lots of money to make this happen. Arc expect around 225 billion in AI infrastructure spending to 2031. Computers chip data center power because running million of self-driving car robot take an incredible amount of computing power.
And this is where SpaceX become interesting for this in this story. ARC also talk about a possible Tesla SpaceX merger with the next 5 years. Now there's no official merging announcement but they also discuss what the two company could become together. A possible 3.8 trillion in annual revenue at 2.7 trillion in operating profit by 2031.
2.7 trillion. This number are huge. But look at what this company are building. Tesla has AI, robot, battery, energy, a self-driving car. SpaceX has rocket, Star Link, Star Shield and uh and space technology um some of them top secret working for the government. I can see why people are starting to connect the two company together.
Image Optimus robot work in space. Tesla energy system app power future project. a both companies sharing more technology. I'm not saying emergency guarantee and as a shareholder of both companies, I want to see the actually deal before decide whether it is good for investor or not. But I understand why ARK is looking at this big picture.
Now, here's something that made me laugh. Ark's bet case for Tesla is 3,300 per share. That is a 13.4 4 trillion company and that is supposed to be the lower case but to be fair ARC run did run 5,000 computer simulation in any case any um um you know possibility uh of market of time of black swan and that and that is the bare case and their b and their bare case is and their bare case is the 25th percentile so 25% of this simul ation result actually the result came around like 3,300 is not the worst possible outcome and everything depend on the assumption arc put into the model if robot taxi take longer if robot taxi take longer optimus grow more slowly the stock could be worth much less that is how this model work but actually like that arc show m at least we can see what need to happen I would rather look at the real assumption that see some one onion saying Tesla is going to 10,000 just because Elen is a genius.
Show me the revenue. Show me the profit. Show me how many robot taxi are actually making money. That is what I care about. And I think this is especially important for people like me who are getting close to retirement. I'm in my 50 and I'm working my entire life. I built my own business and I want to enjoy the money I work so hard to make.
I own Tesla, SpaceX because I believe this company have a huge huge huge future. But I'm not putting my entire retirement to one stock. But I'm not putting my entire retirement in one stock. I like having investment that pay income. I I like having safe investment. I also want to some money in company that could grow a lot.
Tesla, SpaceX are part of the growth side of my bucket, the dream bucket portfolio. I don't need the Tesla to hit 4,400 by 2031. That would be beautiful for my investment to even work, right? Uh [snorts] if Tesla keep improving full self-driving, grow robot taxi, start selling useful Optimus, uh and keep growing the energy business, I would be happy [clears throat] even if take longer because nobody know exactly what Tesla stock will be worth in 2031.
There are too many things that can change. competition, government rule, economy, and how fast the technology improve. There are too many things that can change. Competition, government rules, the economy, and how fast the technology improve. But here's what I found interesting. Arc is not predicting Tesla will become a 17.5 trillion company, but selling more car.
They're predicting Tesla could become a massive AI business that make money from transportation and robotics. And I think that is the part of a lots of people not even that's still missing and don't even can understand. Now will Tesla now will Tesla really have 8.1 billion taxi working by 2031? Uh will Optimus generate 212 billion a year?
Will Tesla reach almost 900 billion in a habit? I have no idea. But at least uh now we know what Arc is betting on. And over the next few years, we are going to find out how close Tesla can be. Personally, I'm excited. I already own the share. I'm not chasing a price target. I'm watching in the business.
And if Ark turn out to be right at Tesla really hit 4,400 by 2031. I think a lot of Tesla shareholder are going to have a very nice retirement, including me. But even if it if take longer, I still like where this company are going. I'm bullish on Tesla. I'm bullish on SpaceX and I'm happy to own both.
Now Tesla just need to deliver the numbers, but stay tuned for the earning call of Tesla. But guys, as always, thank you so much for following. But guys, if you want to follow me, but guys, check this video out of me driving with the Cyber Truck in the rain hand with a full cipher driving in the video right here. And I will see you over
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