저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 증시 가격 수준 및 외국인 자금 흐름에 대한 Raamdeo Agrawal 인터뷰. 결론: 인도 시장은 여전히 외국인 대비 높은 밸류에이션 부담이 있으나, 장기적으로 국내 자본 기반 성장이 지속될 것으로 봄. 인도 시장 전반: 인도 스토리는 다른 신흥국 대비 우수하고 상대 성과가 좋다고 평가. 다만 외국인이 가장 우려하는 것은 밸류에이션이며, 프리미엄이 100% 수준이라 크게 줄어들기 어렵다고 봄. 인도가 빠지거나 다른 시장이 오르는 식으로 상대 격차가 조정될 수 있다고 언급. 외국인 자금 흐름: BSE500 지수 내 외국인 보유 비중이 2020년 12월 약 5%대 고점에서 2022년 6월 약 8.3%대 저점까지 떨어졌다가 7~8월부터 순유입 전환. 롱온리 펀드는 다른 시장 하락으로 인도 비중이 올라가 비중 조정 매도가 나오고 있다고 설명. 자금 흐름은 향후 개선될 것으로 전망. 국내 자금 및 장기 전망: 국내 소매 참여와 국내 자금 흐름이 인도 성장의 기반이며, 이것이 충분히 지속 가능해지면 해외 자금도 다시 들어올 것이라는 장기 견해. 금융(은행·금융서비스): 대차대조표 양호, 신용비용 하락, 신용성장 확대, 밸류에이션 합리적, GDP 성장 7% 수준. 과거 2년 은행 성장이 완전히 회복되고 전 은행이 점진적으로 사상 최고치 도달 전망. 올해 대출 성장 15% 전망. 금융 테마는 향후 2~3년 지속 예상. IT: 은행 다음으로 큰 섹터, 현재 배분이 높음. 과거 고성장 섹터들이 순위가 떨어지는 디레이팅 진행 중. 2023년에는 다시 최고 성과 섹터가 될 수 있다고 봄. 현 환경은 좋지 않으며 바닥 형성까지 4~5개월 필요 가능. IT 기업은 장기 성장 스토리 유효하고 현금 및 경영 투명성 양호. 자동차: 자동차 주식이 최근 강세인 가운데, 상용차 수요 강세로 특정 기업 수익 확대 전망. 타타모터스는 반도체 문제 등으로 단기 전망이 불명확하나 장기적으로 회복 가능성 언급. 기업별 선별 접근 필요, 수출 기반과 인도 내 다변화 기업에 기회. 향후 4~5년간 자동차 테마 중요. 시멘트: 현재 수요 부진, 가동률 높음에도 관심 확대. 아다니 진입 이후 업계 통합 기대. 현 시점 분기 실적 부진하나 장기 통합 스토리 강조. 교체가치 대비 낮은 가격에 매수하면 수익 가능하다고 언급. 결론적으로 인도 자동차·금융·IT 테마에 대한 긍정 및 단기 조정 인식.
다듬은 글
Hello Astro Gate Mr. Agarwal from CNBC Awaaz Market Services, welcome to CNBC Awaaz in Kumbh. This is an offline conference after two years. So, first of all, we are assuming that there will be a lot of excitement in this conference. What feedback have you been getting so far because there have been many concerns, be it the rate of energy price inflation, all these factors are still dominant, but despite that, the Indian market has not comparatively obliged to pay as much to these factors, so will this euphoria of the Indian market continue?
And also, what feedback have you got from this conference so far? Look, the conference has just started, the first few sessions have all happened, two-three sessions have happened, so one thing is being understood in that is that firstly, the India story is outstanding and it is outperforming, and also from the energy market, from all the files that I have talked to two-four people, I have understood that the only concern is that the valuation of India is much more expensive than other energy markets, so that is one concern, purchasing advice, everyone.
They want to know that their position in India is below one person, whereas our market share in the global market is there, so they have to excuse it, but the valuation is falling, I think the relation is 100% premium, it cannot decrease much, so either India is down or Rasool goes up so that can happen, then I think the flow of funds will improve in the future, but the concern which I understand is the valuation, okay you mentioned it and also talk about the impact allocation numbers, we have seen that decreasing, the record high score in the BSE 500 index, which used to be around five in December 2020, it reached a low in June 2022 which is around 8:30 person, now if we look at it from the beginning of the year, Mr.
Agarwal, FI did not invest in India in it, the numbers became positive from July and in August the numbers Encouragingly, now they want to invest money. The valuation in the Indian market seems expensive to them, but do you get the sense that positions in the Indian market will be seen increasing, what kind of losses can be there, this is a very difficult thing because there is not just one NDT, there are many varieties in it too, long only, long shot, then high fonts, then index fonts, global microphones, there are many such categories, here the comment long only funda comes and they are saying that actually they have seen samridamsons and that is because the balancing is because there has been a lot of decline in other markets, for example, the position of India, which was 15000 somewhere, has become third, so it is necessary for them to balance it and it is slow, otherwise, due to that reason they have to sell the entire balance, it is an irony for everyone, so until the environment for equity improves and until all this is happening in our market, I think, all this will end, so the market will go somewhere as per its wish Yes, you come back and I think there will be some improvement there.
Sustained flow for India. Talking about the future, that is, India is an undertaking country in the portfolio. Now I feel that the way India's growth story is building on domestic capital, your retail participation, the flow that is being created, the domestic flow that is being created, that is enough for India's growth.
And when it becomes very sustainable, then it will participate somewhere else, that is my belief, but time tells what happens. Okay, Mr. Agarwal, if I want to get your views on some specific themes, and first of all, banks and financial services, this entire segment has expanded a lot and we have also seen a lot of interest from investors coming here.
And in this white pocket, there are many specific stocks which have given stellar returns. No matter what concerns there are in the market or what kind of reaction the overall market has to give, this pocket should be looked at with this theme. What is the outlook regarding this segment? Yes, the opportunity in this segment is looking very good.
Their balance sheets are clean. Credit costs have been coming down. That credit has been increasing a lot. So, such times come very rarely and valuations are available. You have credit growth. Costs are coming down and valuations are reasonable and economics are also growing very well at 7%. So, in every way, the growth that we saw for banks in the past two years will be completely restored and all the banks are gradually going to reach all-time highs.
You will have a 15% growth in credit this year. So, this is how relationships will improve and investors will have opportunity to make a good mode of money. The markets are interesting. That is, the banks financial services theme will definitely remain for the next two-three years. Well, Mr. Kamal, there is one more thing, especially if we look at the trend of the last three years, we have seen the market theme changing every year.
2020 All About Pharma In 2021, IT gave very good returns. This year we are seeing SIM and auto. These are some of the themes that are coming to the fore regarding IT. Although your conference has just started, so it's too early to comment, but whatever communication conversation, what are your thoughts regarding IT?
This talk of global recession, the consumption that is being talked about, has it impacted IT or is the pain still there? What is your view regarding IT? Money is coming out, some are also thinking of investing on tips. See, if IT is the second biggest category after banking, then what happens is that your banking is also doing well, different from somewhere else, so clearly this is the allocation at this time, so the copper performance will be good from IT, but the denitration that is happening, like the piece of 30 became 25, became 22, became 20, that will continue to continue to some extent when you came to know that these are the best performing sectors in 22 But in 23, it may take a back seat and it might become the best performing sector.
So, this phase, as you said, every year new teams come in, like pharma, etc. These are all wonderful businesses. See, this year 22 is not good for them because it is good to be there before that. If this phase continues, it will mean the end of the business. If anything happens, I think Indian ID, our story is very long and will deteriorate for the next five, ten, fifteen years.
And their quality of business is very good. The cash is very good. The management is very transparent. Deleting is happening. It will bottom out somewhere and take four to five months more. Well, this registration fare is also one meaning, you will understand right now, it is real because it has to be in the track for four to six bottles.
The pressure on that track, so the environment is not right, but re- rating at discharge in it. Well, Agarwal, I want to ask you two questions on auto. First, these auto stocks which are running in top gear, mostly after many years, coming to these levels now, is it not fatal to ride them? Or it would be better to take auto exposure even at these levels and secondly, if we look at this entire pocket, then stocks like these have shown very good performance, their focus on TV is quite adgressive, TVS Motors is performing very well, Maruti has moved up after so many years, now talks of 10000 have started again, but one stock which had probably shown its strength earlier is completely underperforming, that is Tata Motors, it is now giving losses, if we look at investors in front of other stocks, how are you segregating your allocation, your investment in autos, so really auto is a big segment, now the biggest consumer item is roti, kapda, makaan, gaddi and then house, then car, transportation is a very big segment and in this, in every segment there are one or two players who are successful, now see, the demand for commercial vehicles will come very strongly, so oil will earn a lot of money, in domestic, in India, Telco, there is a lot of money in this segment, but in front of you, their biggest portfolio is Captain Location.
It is big, its impact is big, its connection with Europe is currently in the UK, they have a huge franchise in China, so this is a bit global too, in the short term due to the problem of semiconductors, hence the prospectus of Telco is not clear in my mind, so we will have to see that and in the long term everything will result and they will be exposed, all the conductor problems will also short out, so the potential is very high in the company, but right now see how solar energy, I don't have any strong view on European car industries What do you think Mr.
Agarwal, autos or autolies Hey, it depends on the company, you know, as you think, I would prefer anytime if I find a good company in terms of actual products, then it is more presentable and otherwise, any monopolistic company which does not depend only on the Indian producers these days, they are also becoming quite popular, so those which have good export franchises and also have a diversified Indian base, I think you will get opportunities there also because the base is Indian Auto will become quite big in the next four to five years.
Okay, Mr. Agarwal, a class question for you. I want to ask you about cement because this theme has emerged of late. We have seen that demand is low. Sir, it is operating at plus capacity. Despite that, there is a lot of interest in stocks. Banks are getting a lot of interest. After Adani's entry, there are expectations that a phase of consolidation will begin in this entire sector.
How are you looking at cement? The same thing is, how will the demand build? Right now, the ground reality is quite subdued for this quarter. But after Adani's entry, the story has completely changed. This storytelling right now. And now whatever you want to imagine about the future, that brother, the 1000-1200 will quickly become 20-2500.
The entire industry will become consolidative and the size of the industry will become very big. So, all that is just an imagination and it is building up and that is in front of you, that is, P multiple is all a matter of optimization and That is going on right now, so why are you being a little careful about how much price you pay for cement stock?
I have seen that there are ways to make money in cement. If you buy it at a price slightly lower than the replacement value, you can sell it at that price and you can make money. Okay, thank you Mr. Agarwal for your conversation with CNBC and good luck to you for this conference. It was a very interesting experience with Mr.
Agarwal in which he said that India has been outperforming. Indians are liking the prices. He is finding the valuations a bit expensive, but his comments on ITR auto are very important. It will make a comeback soon. It is a matter of four to five quarters and the theme of autos will remain important for the next four to five years.
With this, after a break for a break, we will bring you the complete action of the Matka market.
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