저자: MohnishPabrai · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 현재 시장과 실물경제의 괴리가 커서 현금을 확보해두는 것이 좋다는 신중론. 1929년 대폭락은 중간 반등 후 2년간 추가로 85% 하락했던 사례로, 지금도 낙관은 이르다는 경고. 실물경제에서는 대부분 기업이 이익률이 매우 낮아 생존이 어렵고, 중소기업 다수가 30~45일치 급여도 감당하기 어렵다는 취약성 지적. 이에 따라 지금 현금을 쌓고 비관 시나리오가 빗나가더라도 1년 반 뒤부터 투자를 시작하는 접근을 제시. 리루(Li Lu)의 이력 소개: 천안문 사건 주도자로 중국 정부의 수배를 받다 홍콩 경유로 탈출, 컬럼비아대에서 학사·MBA·법학 학위를 4년에 동시 취득. 학생대출 자금을 몇 달 먼저 받아 투자해 재학 중 백만 달러를 벌었다는 일화 소개. 초기에는 벤처캐피털 투자자였으나 이후 가치투자자로 전환, 기업을 깊이 이해하고 장기 보유하는 스타일. 리루는 하방 리스크에 먼저 주목하고, 긴 성장 기반을 가진 기업을 알아보는 능력이 뛰어나다고 평가. 찰리 멍거가 두 사람을 소개했고 매달 점심 모임을 이어왔다고 언급. 대상 자산(삼성전자, 엔비디아, 비트코인, S&P500, 나스닥, 금리, 환율 등)에 대한 구체적 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
hi guys in this clip monish reveals the untold story of lilu and he also discusses we lose investment strategy and why Cherry manga loves him so much as we all know lilu is one of the greatest investors and he has achieved a higher return for Charlie Munger in this clip you will learn one why the crash of 1929 is not really the crash of 1929.
two why it is not a bad idea to have cash on hand in today's market three when munish first met lilu and how they met four why Lulu's had unusual childhood five how Lulu switched from being a VC venture capitalist to being a value investor and six what is the similarity between Warren Buffett Charlie Munger and lilu enjoy this amazing discussion um and and Warren talked about at the meeting where he said that you know the crash of 1929 is not really the crash of 1929 because the market went down a bit they came came back up and then people thought okay we're done and that's when the real decline came over the next two years when it dropped another 85 percent so so to me I think that there's a big disconnect between what is happening in the real world and what is happening in the equity markets and I think the only conclusion I can draw from there is um it's not a bad idea to build cash um even if one ends up even if none of these gloom and doom scenarios kind of play out um one can start putting it to work a year and a half from now and I have been friends for uh for many years uh I think I uh I think it was 11 years ago and uh and Charlie introduced the two of us uh and uh and he actually uh he forced us he said uh I don't really care whether you really like each other or not but I want you guys to meet at least once a month for lunch and uh so what we used to do is we uh we did that we we basically used to get together and meet and I got to uh I got to know him uh uh quite well uh over the years I I think uh Lilo has had a I mean this would become a a long a long topic to go through but uh uh on this call but I think he's had a very unusual childhood a very difficult childhood um you know he was one of the most Wanted men in China because he was one of the leaders of Tiananmen Square and the Chinese government basically wanted to put him away for good and uh some people in Hong Kong helped smuggle them out of China and then they got him to Colombia and he actually did three business I mean three degrees at Columbia simultaneously he did an undergraduate degree and he did an MBA and he did a law degree and he finished all three degrees in four years and uh that's kind of unprecedented uh at uh at Columbia no one's ever done that before or since um and um and you know the thing is he was on he was on student loans at Columbia and so they used to give him the money kind of you know ahead of maybe three four months ahead of when he had to pay his rent and other things that he used in effect student loan float uh and invest with that and uh you know by the time he finished at Columbia he had made a million dollars on the float you know so he was yeah wow uh yeah so he was a millionaire basically he was uh like they would give him you know 20 30 000 for the semester and then he'd start investing that and it would be uh 70 80 000 by the time he actually had to give the money and so on and uh so he did really well uh as a as an investor he was he used to be mainly a venture capital investor doing early stage businesses and such and then he later switched uh but he's uh I would say Lily was very much kind of a Swiss Army knife kind of investor he's he likes to get to know the company as well uh he tends to hold that for a very long time uh he has a very rich understanding uh of these businesses and uh and uh and I've had I've had some amazing conversations with him um I don't know how much of it he wants me to put on the public domain but uh but I would say that he's got one of the big things they bring to the investing game is they're really good at focusing on the downside uh they they immediately hone in on what can go wrong rather than what can go right and they are able to put a lot of things away very quickly and really was quite similar uh he's uh he's very very focused on what can go wrong but he's also very good at identifying uh long runways you know getting to know the entrepreneurs and the Business Leaders and then uh you know he has some companies in his portfolio that I've been with him he's been he's had them for 15 20 years in the portfolio so um yeah uh unusual wiring wonderful guy um and and Warren talked about it the meaning where he said that you know the crowd of 1929 is not really the crash of 1929 because the markets went down a bit they came came back up and then people thought okay we're done and that's when the real decline came over the next two years when it dropped another 85 percent so so to me I think that there's a big disconnect between what is happening in the real world and what is happening in the equity markets and I think the only conclusion I can draw from there is um it's not a bad idea to build cash um even if one ends up even if none of these gloom and doom scenarios kind of play out um one can start putting it to work a year and a half from now most businesses are extremely fragile creations um they they have been they have learned to survive with a very brutal competitive forces acting on them and they are barely able to survive you know just they make a few percentage points of profit on in in normal times um you know Bill Gates used to say when he first started Microsoft that he wanted the company to have enough cash so it would go for two years without getting paid that he could he could pay his staff for two years if Microsoft never got any Revenue most businesses cannot pay their staff for even 30 or 45 days if there's no Revenue so most businesses cannot survive for even a few weeks and so what we are seeing going on in the real economies with small businesses across the board is a lot it's huge and uh not accounting for so so I think uh passion caution is a good way to approach this to subscribe if you haven't done it already
Comments 0