저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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결론: 인플레이션이 일시적일지 장기화될지 아무도 모르므로, 전면적 포트폴리오 교체보다 한계적 조정(변동금리 자산, 임대료 전가 가능한 부동산, 실질성장 기업 주식)으로 대비하자는 입장. 인플레이션 전망과 대응: 단기(약 1년)와 장기(3~6년) 인플레이션 중 어느 쪽일지 불확실하며, 확실하다고 말하는 사람은 자기기만이거나 남을 속이는 것이라고 봄. 그럼에도 불확실성 속에서 변동금리 채권, 아파트(임대료 인상 가능), 이익이 물가보다 빠르게 늘어나는 기업 주식 등으로 일부 비중을 옮기는 것은 가능. 포트폴리오 조언: 전부 팔고 새로 사는 것은 불확실성과 거래비용 때문에 권하지 않음. 고정금리 채권 일부를 변동금리나 성장주로 바꾸는 식의 한계적 조정을 제안. 사이클 진단: 이번 사이클은 내부 과열·조정이 아니라 팬데믹이라는 외생적 충격에 의한 비정상적 사이클. 중앙은행과 재무부의 대규모 자금 공급이 시장을 떠받침. 경기와 주식시장 괴리: 2020년 2월 고점(S&P 약 3386) 이후 3월 저점까지 약 1/3 하락 후 회복. 2020년 2분기 미국 GDP는 연율 약 1/3 감소했지만 주가는 저점 대비 2배 이상 상승. 부정적으로 보면 주식이 경기보다 앞서 나간 것이고, 긍정적으로 보면 아직 경기 확장 초기라 침체까지 수년 남았다고 봄. 공급망과 인플레 요인: 자동차 반도체 부족으로 신차·중고차 가격 상승, 주택 건설 붐에 따른 목재 가격 상승, 노동력 부족으로 임금 상승. 이런 요인들이 공급망 정상화와 노동 복귀로 진정될지는 불확실. 기대인플레이션 리스크: 물가 상승 기대가 소비 행동을 바꾸고 이것이 다시 물가를 올리는 자기실현적 순환이 생기면 억제가 어려움. 역사적으로 기대인플레가 자리 잡으면 되돌리기 어려웠음. 출연자 전망: 명확한 단일 가격 목표는 제시하지 않았고, 중기 이상 경기 확장 지속 가능성에 무게를 둠. 예측의 어려움을 강조하며 과신을 경계.
다듬은 글
I I indicated in the memo we don't know what's going to happen with inflation uh it may first of all we're having inflation and the question is will it continue for a long time or will it be short-term short term I take to mean uh a year or so and long term would be three to six years and nobody knows and anybody anybody who says they know whether which is going to be is a either deceiving themselves or deceiving you but um and but even not knowing you could say to yourself you know what uh I'm worried about inflation I'm not I don't know if it's coming or if it's going to be permanent long term but if it I wanna make some preparations now the preparations you'll make are not exactly the same preparations that you would make if it was possible to know exactly whether whether the inflation will be long-term or not because you don't know but you may make some preparations so you may own floating rate deck rather than fixed rate that you might buy Apartments because maybe landlords can can pass on rent increases you might buy the uh stocks of companies where earnings grow where they can go earning faster than inflation so have real growth and I would not advocate a wholesale change of portfolio sell everything you have and buy a whole new portfolio because we're not sure and because that kind of transaction is very expensive but at the margin you could sell some fixed rate bonds and buy some floating or you could uh you know sell some bonds and buy some the stocks of growing companies and so forth so you know there are things that you can do to prepare for the uncertain future even though we don't know what it holds don't forget to like And subscribe if you haven't done it already this is a very unusual cycle because you know we had some very profound effects last uh last year and into this year which were non-cyclical they were exogenous uh events uh you understand the word exogenous they came from outside um most cyclical developments come are internal to the market in other words things go well in the economy people get optimistic prices rise and when once they rise too far then they have to correct so then they turn down and then they fall through the fair value so the point where they're too cheap and then when it's too cheap they correct and they move back toward full value so it's all about it's all about excesses and Corrections excessively High excessively low and then correct back to the mean this cycle had nothing to do with any of that this these events we had a it's like almost like a meteor from outer space hit the earth we had a pandemic and because of the pandemic we had to close most of the economies of the world to control it to reduce social contact so we had a very serious economic slowdown and we had a market decline uh and then of course uh so uh none of that was normal cyclical Behavior then to fix it the the central banks of the world including the FED plus the U.S treasury went out and gave out money they distributed money they spent money they made loans Etc and the markets responded very favorably none of that was normal or cyclical event so I'm just giving this background that we can't really talk about it is how does this compare with other Cycles because this is not really a cycle in the in the sense of you know what I've written about in the past um so the interesting thing worth noting is normally the normally the economy and the markets move kind of together not exactly together there are leads and lags but they they move in sympathy with each other so when the economy does well the stock market does well sometimes the stock market anticipates a decline but when the market the economy declines the market does poorly so they move kind of together in this case we hit the we hit the high February 19th of 2020.
3386 on the S P I think then uh five weeks later we hit the law uh March 23rd um two two six oh or something like that so the market was down a third in in five weeks but then it started up and it went up in April and May uh and and June now remember that the April May June but that quarter was the worst quarter in history for GDP in the U.S so we have GDP collapsing down one-third at an annualized rate it wasn't actually that you have to understand what's down to third it was if you annualize the decline it would come to a third but you have the so you have the the economy collapsing and the stock market booming and it had this has continued so the stock market is more than double where it was at the low in March uh the economy is you know slightly better um so um that's very unusual now what does it mean well you could say I'm worried because the economy hasn't done well but stocks are already high stocks are ahead of themselves that's the negative way to look at it the positive way to look at it is yes it's true stocks are high but there's a lot of economic growth yet to come and we're just at the beginning of an expansion and we we believe that there won't be a recession for uh for you know for years and so this is the you know in investing almost everything can be viewed either with the negative bias or a positive bias and I've just shown you both of those uh but that's where we stand uh cyclically but let me say one thing Samuel it's always hard to see the future there are two kinds of times when we think it's easy to see the future and when we think it's hard to see the future but I would say that when we think it's easy we're kidding ourselves it's never easy and in fact it's one of the most dangerous things is when you think it's easy when you think you're sure you know what the future holds that's how you can get in trouble because you make big bets which could be wrong but anyway it's it's hard to know and you know first of all uh you know we have shortages so cars are in short supply so car prices are high for new cars which are hard to get and because new car prices are high old car prices go up because because that's you know they're substitutable um then we have when people came out of their isolation and they wanted to buy new houses obviously not too many houses were built in the last two and a half two years so we had a shortage of housing so everybody saw us building houses when everybody's building houses then there's a shortage of lumber so you have so lumber prices go up and so this is how the economies work um and uh of course one of the things we have now is the shortage of Labor and there's a variety of reasons there you know there are still millions of people how to work but not for the jobs that want people so so uh people are changing jobs to get more pay people who are aren't working uh these businesses are enticing them to come back to work with big raises and bonuses and so forth so the cost of Labor is going up so all these things in the economy uh look inflationary and the question is will they get fixed you know once the supply chain is working positively and once everybody who's going to come back to work has come back to work will will these things settle down and it's it's hard to know inflation is is in particular very complicated because of the role of inflationary expectations if people expect that prices will go up what do they do they'll go out and buy now and if they go out and buy now what happens prices fulfilling prophecy that's right and and what and the and and his history indicates that once inflationary expectations take hold it's very hard to to uh reduce that because this feeling that everything's going to go up in price affects Behavior and is self-fulfilling for a while so people believe it more and uh and if they believe that there's inflation and the act on it and it produces inflation then they believe it even more so uh and it's hard but but I mean there's no measure of of well I mean there's no way to know what's going on with inflationary expectations or whether they'll be permanent so these are some of the reasons why it's very hard to predict thank you guys for watching I hope you enjoyed don't forget to hit the like button and to subscribe if you haven't done it already
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