저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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결론: 그랜섬은 2022년 시점에 미국 주식과 주택시장이 동시에 과열된 '슈퍼 버블' 상태이며, 이를 방치하면 큰 고통이 따른다고 경고한다. 금리·자산가격 과열 위험: 역사상 가장 낮은 금리와 가장 높은 채권가격, 최고 수준의 주식시장과 가구소득 대비 최고 주택가격이 동시에 나타나는 것은 위험한 조합이라고 주장한다. 주택은 가구소득 대비 2006~2007년 버블 때보다 더 비싸다고 본다. 일본·미국 사례 비교: 1989년 일본은 주식과 부동산 버블이 동시에 붕괴해 장기 침체를 겪었고, 주식은 아직 1989년 고점을 회복하지 못했다. 미국 주택시장 역시 과거 버블 붕괴 사례를 따를 수 있다고 본다. 주택시장 분석: 주택은 규제·공급 부족 때문에 평균회귀가 주식만큼 확실하지 않다. 다만 아일랜드·스페인·미국 등 공급을 과잉으로 늘린 시장은 추세선 아래까지 하락했다. 주식시장이 약해지고 경기가 둔화되면 주택도 약세로 갈 가능성이 크다고 본다. 금리와 주택: 주택은 금리에 절대적으로 좌우되며 모기지는 고정금리·고레버리지 구조다. 현재 주택은 역사적으로 비싸지만 모기지 금리는 역사적 저점이라, 30년 보유하며 임대할 수 있다면 대체로 괜찮을 수 있다고 조언한다. 버블 정의와 슈퍼 버블: 그는 통계적으로 2시그마 이상 이탈을 버블로 정의한다. 2시그마 이탈 후 추세로 돌아오지 않은 사례가 많고, 3시그마까지 간 1929년, 2000년, 1989년 일본, 그리고 현재 미국 주식이 슈퍼 버블이다. 현재 지수는 2시그마 약 3500, 3시그마 약 4500~4600선이며 2021년 12월 4800까지 갔다고 언급한다. 슈퍼 버블은 자산 가치 하락 폭이 커서 소비 위축 등 실물 고통이 크다고 설명한다. 투자자 대응: 장기 보유가 가능하면 버티는 것도 방법이지만, 현실의 투자자는 하락장에서 이탈하는 경우가 많다. 슈퍼 버블은 피할 수 있다면 피하는 것이 낫다고 권고한다.
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we also had in the U.S and it was much more painful and guaranteed a much tougher economic environment than we had had for quite a few decades so you don't want to do that and you're playing with fire if you combine the lowest interest rates and the highest bond prices in history with the highest stock market in history and the highest multiple of family income in housing I'm not saying that they will all go together there are reasons as you suggest at the housing market May unravel more slowly it will be more a slow steady function of interest rates and nevertheless we're playing with fire by having all of those things overpriced at the same time we're running the risk that we will be squeezed by high energy and commodity prices as we're squeezed from the loss of perceived value in our housing and the stock market don't forget to like And subscribe if you haven't done it already you've said the bursting of the Japanese and U.S housing market bubbles was devastating because in those cases you had manias in both the stock market and important economic sectors what about now are you seeing the same dangerous combination I have to admit the housing market doesn't seem to have the kind of psychological accompaniment of a crazy bubble like the stock market does and it didn't worry me much back in July of 2020 but then it decided to go into warp drive and we've just had the biggest move in a 12-month period in the history of U.S real estate about 20 in the last 12 months and quite a bit in the previous five or six months so since the U.S Equity Market reached two Sigma bubble territory the housing market in the U.S has shot upwards with great determination and it actually sells at a higher multiple of family income than the housing bubble of 2006-2007.
because of that 20 20 is a lot more in housing than 20 is in the stock market that is just an amazing move and it is certainly made the U.S housing market extremely expensive the highest price it has ever been as a multiple of your ability to buy it family income and history has been pretty straightforward whatever you do don't have gloriously overpriced housing markets at the same time as you have a stock market bubble Japan tried it the biggest land and real estate bubble in history anywhere arguably the greatest bubble of any kind anywhere and simultaneously they had 65 times earnings it was set at the time and the Japanese stock market that was the ultimate definition of potential pain as you had to mount them both down and they did and as I said stock market isn't back to 89 but the land market isn't back to 89 either so you had double jeopardy a lost decade and you could say that those two bubbles from way back in 89 are still casting a shadow on the Japanese economy so thinking about the U.S housing market isn't it strong mainly because there's so little Supply and if that's the case is there any reason to doubt that the Fallout will be as severe as the last time that housing market was bubbly yeah that's um actually exactly my view that the housing market is not as reliably mean reverting as the stock markets have been and the reason why not is because of zoning and all manner of inefficiencies that unfortunately surround the housing market if you won't let people build houses then you get a chronic housing shortage and most of the great markets in the world today have chronic housing shortages they haven't been building enough in the UK for decades or Australia and New Zealand and many European markets so simply under building generating a shortage and people simply have to pay more and more of their limited resources to buy a house we didn't fall in that category until recently and you could divide the housing bubble into two groups those where you had strict zoning and restraints on building and when the housing bust occurred they went down a bit but they regrouped and went to New highs and then you had the three markets where they were really cranking out new housing and Ireland they were covering the whole island with new houses in Spain everybody had to have two houses and uh in the U.S they were cranking out an extra million and a half houses a year over normal and in those three markets they caught up they gluttered the market and the great housing bubbles collapsed and went all the way back to Trent in in the case of all three of those markets and Below trend in all three of those markets and this time we have institution housing so you can't depend on the speed and extent of the decline the problem is if the U.S Equity Market goes down if it casts a shadow on confidence if it weakens the economy a bit if there are other economic problems then I expect the U.S housing market to weaken the way I describe this is the potential for write Downs in asset prices and perceived value of your assets if you are a record distance above trend line price in the U.S housing market even though there's no immediate reason why the house market should collapse you will expect at some indefinite period in the time when people are pessimistic the potential is there for substantially lower house prices and one thing you should bear in mind is that housing is a complete creature of the interest rate through the mortgages mortgages there's nothing like that in the stock market they're huge leverage their fixed term uh that completely institutionalized that completely socially unacceptable and they give you a level of Leverage that you could only dream about in the stock market on very favorable terms in the case of the US and if they lower your mortgage why would you not pay more for your house someone says to me today well what should I do I need to buy a house my attitude is look they're badly overpriced here's the data the higher price compared to your income than they have ever did but the mortgage is the lowest price it's ever been the mortgage if anything is more underpriced then your house is overpriced if you can guarantee to keep it for the life of the mortgage 30 years and you are prepared to rent it out if you have to it's highly likely that you'll do okay you may not do brilliantly but you should do okay and you may do very well um so housing is a complete creature of interest rates makes it easier to understand also why interest rates Drive asset prices than it is in the stock market where it's a little more complicated you've correctly called two recent bubbles that popped in the U.S the internet bubble and the housing bubble yet an investor who bought and held from the late 1990s to now has has made out pretty well so the question is why worry about Bubbles as long as we have a long enough time Horizon yeah if you can lock up your portfolio throw the key away you'll probably do okay the problem is if you hit these super bubbles that concern me these three sigma outliers in 1929 you didn't get back until 1956 and in 2000 you had lost a lot of money by 2009 and you got back in the game about 2012.
and uh the same with the housing bubble you can have a long wait the mother and father of all Equity Bubbles as Japan in 1989. and they're still waiting so that's 20 22 23 years and they're still not back to the high and what happens in real life is people don't hang in and wait for the 40-year return in the case of Japan they changed their strategy and and Abandon Ship as the market goes down more often than not so these are very dangerous events and uh you don't want to ride through them if you can avoid them and they're not that common so when you are unfortunate enough to have one my advice is to do some sidestepping of some of the pain so you just use the term Super Bubble and you're saying the U.S market is in a Super Bubble you believe can you explain what you mean starting with your definition of a regular bubble and then what makes this current one super yeah about 25 years ago we felt in order to talk about bubbles we should probably Define them statistically and so we did just that and we picked a standard statistical term of a two-sigma a two Sigma event is the kind that should occur every 44 years and it perfectly random world and with human beings who are capable of being a little inefficient they occur every 35 years in the equity markets close enough I would say for government work and we noticed that all of them in the developed World in modern times in equity markets I went back to the trend and the trend is easy to measure the two Sigma is pretty straightforward statistics and the fact that all of them went back without exception we find a very compelling idea the complexity comes from the fact that some of these two Sigma events continue to go up and three of them in the U.S have gone up to three sigma which is the kind that you would expect every hundred years but as I like to say humans do seriously crazy pretty well so they are much further away from random than two Sigma and two out of three certainly more than half up to a sigma go on to three sigma in recent times and the three sigma events we have uh 1929 2000 and today in the equity market and Japan as a major Market overseas in 1989.
and it doesn't change the outcome you go back to Trent but since by definition you've gone further up it takes longer and more pain to come down and the quicker the bubbles and the better off everybody is and we mentioned that this one was a two Sigma back in July of 2020 or August about 3 500. the trend line is about 2500 two Sigma is about 3 500 and three sigma 45 4600.
we got to 48 in December and if you're going to have a bubble it's better to break from 35 to 25 than it is to break from 48 to 25. and therefore the The Real McCoy super bubbles are extremely painful in terms of a reduction of perceived wealth and there is a wealth effect when they mark down your portfolio or your house you spend a little less in the following year or two thank you guys for watching I hope you enjoyed don't forget to hit the like button and do subscribe if you haven't done it already
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