저자: ChrisRossback · 외국인
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테슬라 주주가 머스크 1조달러 보상안을 승인했으며, 목표가 공격적이지만 테슬라는 벤처투자형 기업이라 보상 타당성 있다는 입장. AI 버블 우려에 대해 GPU 수요는 실재하며 현 조정은 'mere blip'이고 장기 긍정, 조정 시 기회라 주장. 일라이릴리 우위 vs 노보노디스크 열세 언급. 금리 인하 필요성 및 주택 부문 약세 거론.
다듬은 글
Hello and welcome to Morning Brief Market Sunrise. I'm Raman Karamali live from Yahoo Finance Studios in London. It's Friday, 7th of November. Coming up on the show, Elon Musk celebrates after Tesla shareholders approve his $1 trillion pay deal. More and more flights are getting cancelled in the US and a judge orders the Trump administration to pay SNAP benefits as the government shutdown rumbles on.
Plus, from Open Door to Laboo Dolls, we'll tell you about some stocks nosediving today. So, grab your coffee and let's own the morning. Well, the first thing you need to know is all about Elon Musk and that $1 trillion pay deal approved last night by shareholders with over 75% voting in favor. [cheering] Approved.
[cheering] While the package that was announced in September would grant Musk 12 massive tranches of stock options tied to targets the board argues are aggressive. And it's worth remembering that his two 2018 pay package is still embroiled in a lawsuit in Delaware. Now Tesla's share price had fallen sharply on Thursday, but in the pre-market it rose around 2% straight after the announcement and are actually trading modestly higher in the pre-market this morning.
A majority of shareholders also approved a proposal to invest in Musk's AI startup XAI. Tesla said it will build a 1 million unit Optimus production line in California and that cyber cab robo taxi production would kick off next April with Miami, Dallas, Phoenix, and Las Vegas being the next cities to test Tesla's robo taxi service.
The next thing you need to know is that worries that AI has peaked continue to grow. Stocks are on track to close a tough week in the red, dragged down by those persistent worries about an AI bubble as big tech valuations run high. The tech heavy NASDAQ has fallen over 2% this week so far with some big names falling sharply.
I'm talking about Nvidia, Palanteer and AMD. And the last thing you need to know about is all about the pharma industry and two firms in particular, FISA and Nova Nordisk. First, the two struck a deal late on Thursday with US President Donald Trump to slash prices of their GLP1 weight loss drugs. Nova's shares are falling in Copenhagen as a result.
Next, Nova raised its offer for the US biotech firm Metser on Thursday, just hours after FISA matched the Danish drug makers previous $10 billion proposal late on Wednesday. The exact dollar amount is currently unclear, though CEO Mike Dustar said at a White House event yesterday its bid is currently higher.
Well, to help us look at those stories in more detail, I'm joined by Chris Rossback, chief investment officer at J Stern. Chris, thanks so much for joining us here on Market Sunrise. Well, let's start with Tesla. Uh what do you it wasn't much of a surprise I guess that Tesla shareholders did approve the the pay deal for Musk but what does this actually mean for Tesla going forward?
Well I think Tesla is a very unique company. It's interesting to see how the vote went because a vote abstaining was going to be a vote against uh the proposal. So clearly a lot of shareholders including the big big index funds must have voted in favor and we're going to find out the details about that.
But Tesla is a company that is unlike all others. It's more like a venture capital investment for its shareholders because the actual car business is only a small part of the overall valuation. If Musk is actually able to succeed in building these businesses in the way a venture capital type firm would then it will generate huge returns and then uh these rewards may be uh in the range of what would be reasonable.
But that's what shareholders have just dis decided and the verdict is going to be out in terms of what he's actually going to be able to achieve. It sounds to me Chris that you kind of agree with the Tesla board when they say that the targets they've set for Musk are aggressive. Uh they are because we're talking about very large industries that uh Tesla and Musk are trying to disrupt.
From our perspective, we invest in quality companies uh that we think we can buy at reasonable valuations and a company like Tesla is trying to change the face of transportation. Um uh the question is is it going to be about autonomous driving? Is it in inner cities even going to be about cars? Is it going to be about pods?
Is it going to be about software? Who's going to be providing the software and providing those pods? And of course Tesla may be the company that succeeds in doing it. Uh but we're in very early days with great uncertainty and so the opportunity is great. So is the risk and so potentially should be the rewards for the CEO.
Okay, let's move on to the worries that we seem seem to be persisting in the markets about an AI bubble. Are you concerned about it? We're not concerned about an underlying AI bubble. We think we're just at the very beginning of data and of computing capacity and the ability to get results from that.
And we can see that because the companies that have had the benefits so far are the big tech platforms that have the data. Uh but most of the big companies in the world don't. They're still in the process of putting it together of aggregating in a way that can be used. And so we think we're very early days.
uh we also think that the demand for GPUs which is what's driving Nvidia and the whole industry from the hyperscalers and from the big platforms and probably from the big sovereign players like Saudi Arabia are real and they're going to happen and they're big enough to explain valuations for companies like Nvidia or ASML or others who are absolutely critical in terms of providing that hardware.
What is much less un what is much more uncertain I should say is open AI and the trillion dollars of demand that they've been talking about how that's going to be funded and so forth. So there is going to be volatility. Not every GPU that's been ordered is going to be uh bought by the people who are buying it.
It's not going to be used. So there's going to be volatility but we are positive in the long term and we think if there is a significant pullback it's an opportunity. So you're seeing this. Is this a significant enough of a pullback we're seeing right now though? No, it's I mean it's it's extremely uh mild so far.
If you see the returns that Nvidia has generated um some of the other companies as well then uh no, we're just this is just a mere blip. Uh we just saw what happened in April of this year um uh with liberation day and what kind of volatility can happen uh if people really start to be concerned. And that of course followed on from the volatility around deepseek.
So uh no this is just a blip in the road. Let's move on to the farmer industry now. Um what do you make of this battle for Metsera? Nova Nordisk has had a pretty rough time of late and it seems to be trying to flex its muscles against FISA. It seems a bit of a strange move, don't you think? Well, it's certainly an aggressive move, but that's what you have to do when you've when you're backed into a corner.
Uh the overall market for GLP-1 is clearly enormous. Uh it is uh looks like a drug that people can take to really modify their behavior and to improve their health. Uh but it's also a product that has a lot of competitors, a lot of new product with better functionality, better ways of taking it uh coming up and with a huge debate about pricing.
uh and so it's very competitive and I think the fact that uh Eli Liy is well positioned but Novo Nordisk is not shows what the issue is. Fizer one of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies also failed in its drug development. That's why they're after Msera with the money that they've got and the fact that Novo after having been the first mover is now forced to compete with other farmer companies uh for a company that has the new technology and the promise of um uh greater revenues shows just in what weak a position Novo Nordisk is.
I think that it's a real issue and pricing up for this kind of thing against one of the large farmer largest farmers companies in the world is not a is a risky proposition. Chris Rossback from J Stern, many thanks for your time here on Market Sunrise. Good. Okay, we're going to be heading for a short break, but when we're back, we'll be listen hearing from one of the most significant voices in the Trump administration.
Welcome back. Well, one of the biggest events this week has certainly been the government shutdown in Washington, impacting America in a number of ways, including starting today, cancelled flights in cities, including Chicago, New York, and Atlanta. Meanwhile, federal workers pay disruptions continue.
So, where do negotiations stand in Washington? And what should we expect to happen next week? Well, my colleague of her got my colleague Jennifer Shonberger asked Joseph Lava, US Treasury Department counselor to to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant. The president with Secretary Besson's help uh we've been able to pay the military.
Uh that's not going to continue. He has another payment I believe coming on the 15th. Uh SNAP benefits which people need. The Democrats are preventing us from fully giving those benefits out to folks. Uh there's been some chatter I've in the news this past week uh some comments that I think uh leader Thun had mentioned that makes me optimistic.
Maybe we can get something solved soon that some of the Democrats uh some of the centrists there are a few will come over to our side. I mean we only we don't have the 60 votes necessary to reopen the government. Um and that's a problem when the Democrats who historically would support these clean continuing resolutions.
It happened numerous times over numerous administrations with Republicans when they were the minority party. 15 times to be exact over the prior four Democratic administrations. This is the worst sort of politics. It like I mentioned with the Supreme Court ruling as another layer of uncertainty. It causes businesses at the margin, Jennifer, to step back to not commit capital.
That means then less hiring, less output, less growth. Uh CA said we could be losing upwards of $15 billion a week. uh that could translate into half a point on GDP uh over an extended period of time and even more if this shutdown, god forbid, were to go through the month of November when people are trying to travel and visit their families.
Uh Secretary Besson perhaps said it best. We just need a handful of Democrats to do the right thing, be national heroes and vote with us to reopen the government. Then we can have the discussion uh on some of these other things that Democrats want. This is not the venue to close the economy down, not have hardworking men and women in our armed forces and elsewhere not get paid because of a desire to demand a vote.
It's very juvenile on the Democrats uh part. And before I let you go, Joe, uh Secretary Besson said over the weekend that he feels that there's a chance that parts of the economy, particularly housing, may be in recession already because of high interest rates. Is Treasury looking at taking any action whether it comes to bill issuance or otherwise to bring down yields and thus push down mortgage rates?
The the Treasury increased bill issuance because it had to rebuild its Treasury balance and the bill issuance now at around 20ish% of total issuance is about in line with the historical average. Uh I think what Secretary Besson has made a very compelling case and certainly this is uh something the president is certainly 100% in agreement with is that is interest rates are too high.
They're too high by the Fed's own admission. Uh our star or the neutral rate is well below even now despite Fed cuts where the current Fed funds rate is. I'm hopeful at some point that the uh Fed will lower rates further and uh and realize that the tariffs which are going to be incredibly successful in rebalancing and dealing with the current emergencies that we have are not inflationary.
They've not led to an increase in inflation expectations. The Fed should cut rates and that in the short term will certainly help housing and as the secretary said there are some sectors that are that are weak and housing is one of them and interest rates are the basically the most dominant variable most dominant variable there.
All right, time for another quick break, but we'll be back with today's trending stocks, which includes some bad news for the makers of a toy you may have heard about, the Lab Boooo Dolls. See you shortly. It's time now for today's trending tickers. Toys, travel, and chips are all on our radar today.
We start in Hong Kong where the Lubu craze has well taken a bit of a hit today. Shares of PopMart, the Chinese toy maker behind the Lubu dolls are down sharply after online backlash against its quote overpriced blind boxes. Today's negative buzz was sparked by two employees spontaneous comments during a company live stream.
That's according to media reports. One of them said, quote, "This is a bit expensive at around $11." And the colleagues replied, quote, "Someone will still buy it." Well, the exchange went viral on Chinese social media with users discussing how cheap the dolls are to produce and how expensive they are to buy.
Well, the stock has lost about one quarter of its value in 3 months. So, I think it's fair to ask whether the peak has passed. Well, shifting to the housing and travel sectors now where we have two distinct story post earnings. First, Open Door shares are sinking sharply in the pre-market, down more than 23% after a major third quarter miss on earnings.
And despite a slight beat on revenue sitting at $915 million above Wall Street's expectations for $882 million and crucially, its new CEO, Cas Natian, pitched a turnaround plan for Open Door as a quote AI and software company. Well, it looks like investors didn't fully buy into that idea. In the past month, the very volatile stock has lost about a third of its value.
It's a very different story for Airbnb, enjoying some pre-market tailwinds after its own earnings sprint. Goldman Sachs this morning raised their price target on a a Airbnb to $140 after reviewing the travel giants strong thirdarter revenue, which hit the high end of their guidance. Now, Goldman highlights management's focus on geographic expansion and investment in AI integration as key drivers.
So, despite a mixed earnings report, Goldman is bullish on the long-term prospects for Airbnb. Now, here's a little media story close to my heart, one that connects Britain and America. In the UK, shares of ITV are surging up as much as 14% right now on reports it's in talks to sell its media and entertainment unit to Comcast owned by Sky for about $2 billion.
The deal would give Comcast a bigger foothold in European broadcasting and certainly shake up the UK media landscape. But I'd say expect some regulatory scrutiny on this one if talks continue. And finally, we can't talk about trending stocks this week without talking about chips. Nvidia edging lower, continuing its slide back to where it was a few weeks ago before the excitement around a US China trade deal.
And we got some new reports overnight confirming that the Trump administration doesn't want Nvidia to sell those advanced Blackwell chips to China. But other chip makers are also hoping to stop the bleeding this week. AMD and Qualcomm both down on fears and warnings from many investors that the AI hype may have gone a little too far.
And yet, Cristiano Ammon, the CEO of Qualcomm, sanded an upbeat note yesterday following the company's earnings report, which was a beat. Hear it directly from him. He spoke to my colleague Julie Hyman. Frankly, we had great news on on the earnings call about this. What we said is if you remember in addition of everything that the company is doing and we're building very strong uh product platforms with technology leadership whether it's PC or auto personal AI industrial broadband all of those new industries we also created optionality for the company by expanding into data centers.
We believe that data center is a as you all know it's a massive opportunity and now as you go from training to inferencing [snorts] uh people are looking for competition and we have ability to do something very interesting. What we did in the earnings call we actually accelerated that forward. When we said about one quarter ago that we are in the data center business, we said revenues will start becoming material in fiscal 28 actually because of the traction we got with our AI accelerators.
Uh we pulled that in and we said now it's in fiscal 27. We're excited. We have a a disruptive I think uh technology for inferencing especially at a time that power consumption could be a limiting factor in the growth of data centers. This is their company DNA. We do high performance low power and uh we're we're excited.
There's a lot of curiosity about the Qualcomm products. I will tell you uh there a lot of curiosity from analysts, a lot of curiosity from the press, but even more curiosity about the hyperscalers and uh we're going to have uh an update uh in the beginning of next year and talk about that in detail but it's a exciting part of Qualcon Future.
Okay, for market movers we're going to focus on earnings once again. Well, we heard earlier in the week from McDonald's where value was really front and center today. hits the turn of Wendy's and it's just reported that sales declined less than expected in Q3. A sign perhaps that the burger chain is starting to rebound from a slump that's eroded investor confidence pretty much throughout the whole of this year.
Sales from existing restaurants fell 3.7% in the third quarter. Wendy's reported it that in that statement that's above the average of analyst estimates. The company also maintained its outlook for the full year after slashing its twice in the previous two quarters. Now, the company's shares are surging in the pre-market, but remember the stock has declined almost 46% so far this year.
Okay, next up, Constellation Energy. This nuclear power company posted weaker than expected quarterly earnings and narrowed its fullear guidance. Constellation Energy posted adjusted earnings of $34 a share for the third quarter. That was below analyst consensus estimates of $311. Revenue totaled at 6.57 billion, up from 6.55 billion last year and well ahead of Wall Street's call for $6.2 billion.
Shares though are falling in the pre-market as the firm lowered its fullear guidance as I mentioned earlier. And finally, Six Flags, the theme park operator. And it was a miss on what Wall Street had been expecting. Remember, this is the firm that Travis Kelce, the Kansas City tight end, has invested in.
Revenue came in at 1.32 billion. That was below the 1.33 billion analysts had been expecting. And as you can see, shares are down just a smidge though in the pre-market. All right, before we wrap up, Open AAI is probably the most talked about private company in the world these days. So, when some top executives mentioned potential financial commitments from the US government, the comments immediately fueled speculation that Open AI might be seeking government guarantees for its loans.
Our tech editor Dan Howley has the latest on Sam Alman's comments and breaks down the controversy for us. OpenAI CEO Sam Alman posted on X that he wanted to clarify a few things. Basically saying that they're not looking for any kind of government backs stop or or bailout or anything along those lines, guarantees with regards to its AI data centers.
Now, this all comes after CFO Sarah Frier was at a Wall Street Journal tech live event. uh she had kind of uh mentioned the idea of private equity uh and then perhaps some kind of government asurances. Uh she later posted on LinkedIn that she used the word backs stop and that kind of muddled the meaning of what she had actually meant.
Uh she tried to kind of you know distance herself from the comments and then Sam Alman uh coming out today and saying look we're just not looking for that. And this all comes as people question how the company is going to pay for that $1 trillion plus $1.4 trillion uh in commitments over the next 8 years.
He says uh at this point uh they will end the year at a $20 billion uh revenue run rate. Uh and they expect that to grow by hundreds of billions by 2030. Now that still doesn't get you to 1.4 trillion. And he said that that has to keep doubling and doubling and doubling. We had seen uh White House AISAR David Saxs earlier say that there's going to be no bailout for AI.
There's five frontier model companies. If one fails, another will just come into its plates. And that's exactly uh what Altman had said. So obviously there's there's push back here from from OpenAI denying any of this. But those questions about how they're going to pay for a trillion plus dollars in commitments really are still hanging over the company.
Okay, before we go, let's have a look at our markets. We start with oil. Today, we're seeing some significant headlines about Luke Oil. The Swiss commodity company Gunver said it was dropping its bid for Russian company Luke Oil. And now, just a look at the price of oil up about 1%. Okay. And very quickly, let's have a look at Bitcoin as well.
The world's largest cryptocurrency slipped back to $100,000. And the US futures all in the red right now. Bitcoin, as you see, falling closer to that $100,000 mark. It's pretty symbolic when it falls that low. Okay, that's it for Market Sunrise for this morning. Stay with Yahoo Finance for continuing live coverage of the markets and your money all day on streaming and online.
Remember, next week on Thursday, Yahoo Finance will be hosting our invest event across all our channels where business and economic leaders from across the financial world will converge on our New York headquarters to share valuable insights and export knowledge all day. Coming up next, join Julia Hyman, head of the market open on Morning Brief. I'm Raman Karali. Go own the morning.
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