저자: DanHawley · 외국인
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마이클 버리가 엔비디아 100만주·팔란티어 500만주 풋옵션 매수 및 클라우드 매출 성장 둔화 차트를 공유하며 AI 밸류에이션 경고. 골드만 데이비드 솔로몬, 모건스탠리 테드 픽은 향후 12~24개월 내 10~15% 조정이 건강한 조정일 수 있다고 언급. 팔란티어는 실적 호조에도 밸류에이션 부담으로 장전 8% 이상 하락. 전반적으로 AI 랠리 과열 우려 확산.
다듬은 글
Obviously, there are some questions about the valuation side of it to Dan's point and it looks like one of the people hinting in that direction is one of the people who made his name during the financial crisis. Yeah, Michael Burry, the hedge fund manager who called out that 2007 financial crisis and the collapse of the US housing market back in 2007 has now put a sour note on this AI trade.
Perhaps one of the biggest calls on this bubble race that we've gotten so far that kind of puts a little realness to what could happen over the next few years. And so what happened overnight was this hedge fund manager Michael Burry put bought put options on 1 million shares of Nvidia and 5 million shares of Palantir.
Just to understand how much exactly that is, 1 million shares would be about valuation of 187 million dollars. And those 5 million shares of Palantir, well, that equates to about 912 million. And so we're pretty significant bet here that Michael Burry is making on both of these companies. As all we've been talking about was the valuation of both of these key players within this AI arms race.
And yesterday after the market closed, he went on to X and he shared a pretty interesting post. He basically pointed out one or a few charts, but one in particular was about the cloud revenue segments for Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft. And what he pointed out was that during the years of 2018 to 2022, we saw returns of 36%, 45%, and 22% for these three companies.
And over the past few years, the return on both of those, or rather all three of those cloud segment revenue, has been significantly lower. And what he said with this graphic they were seeing now on the screen was, "These are not the charts you're looking for. You can go about your business." And this was after this filing had come out.
This was based on a regulatory filing that for the quarter that ended September 30th. And so we're now just getting it. And it's definitely causing a bit of fear among investors this morning. Yeah, definitely. Even though he, you know, he it's all sort of hints and insinuations. He's not coming out with sort of a long screed on all of this.
He just dropped those things that you talked about. Now, we are also at the same time, just coincidentally, getting some commentary from big asset managers who are at a conference in Hong Kong and they're also talking about valuations. Yeah, at this financial summit we heard from Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon.
We also heard from Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick. And what they said essentially was that these evaluations are pretty significantly high right now and we could be seeing a pullback. Specifically, Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick saying, "We should also welcome the possibility that there would be 10 to 15% drawdowns that are not driven by some sort of macro cliff effect." Calling that a healthy development.
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon sort of echoed that. But we've heard from so many executives that investors should right now sort of brace for a potential market drop of about 10% over the next 12 to 24 months. Of course, we've had the significant run-up this past year. The market around record highs leading to these really significant valuations.
And so now hearing a bit of a correction here, definitely it is setting a new tone on the street. But all these executives really saying that this would be a healthy correction that could happen. A really positive development for the market. Dan Hawley, we're going to start with you. And on these Palantir numbers, which look pretty good, it seemed like.
Yeah, they beat on the the top and bottom line. They beat on the expectations for Q4. They seemingly, as you said, had a great quarter. And yet we could see that in the pre-market shares are down more than 8% and it really has to do, kind of as you said, with these sky-high valuations. We have Wall Street analysts basically kind of balking at what the the shares are trading at at this point.
This is a stock that's a favorite among retail investors. It's been shooting through the roof riding kind of the AI wave that essentially all of the tech industry has been riding. They sell, obviously, their software to businesses as well as the government. It uses AI. They signed a deal with Nvidia to capture more chips to be able to speed up the use of their software.
And so at this point it seems as though it's it's to do with the valuation more generally. And CEO Alex Karp had this to say about the valuations. He said, "The ascent has confounded most financial analysts and the chattering class whose frame of reference did not quite anticipate a company of this size and scale growing at such a ferocious and unrelenting rate." He said, "Some of our detractors have been left in a kind of deranged and self-destructive befuddlement." And so that's kind of his shot at the Wall Street analysts who say this stock is trading at levels that just don't kind of make sense when you compare them to what the other, or what its larger big tech competitors are trading at.
The likes of Microsoft, Google, and Nvidia, their PEs are lower than what Palantir's at. obviously there's these kind of dueling takes where the company, you know, obviously says, "Look, we're going to we're going to continue to crush, continue to move forward." And analysts are saying, "Well, let's let's just, you know, hold our horses for a minute.
Maybe maybe this price is a little high for what the company's doing." I mean, that said, you know, the numbers were pretty impressive if you look at the year-over-year gains. You were you read some of his quotes from the call. Dan, I'm going to read you my favorite. He said, "By any normal or even reasonable standard, these are not normal results.
These are not even strong results. These are arguably the best results that any software company has ever delivered." No exaggeration there, I guess. I don't know. But I mean I mean to be fair, the sales gains year-over-year were big. Sure, the sales gains were huge. He also for some reason quotes poets and filmmakers.
He likes to write a lot in his his letters, I guess. But yes, this is I mean, you know, a company that is clearly doing very well. You know, they managed to score these big contracts. Obviously, the US is its largest region as far as revenue goes. They have these contracts and, you know, they've taken heat for working with different government organizations including ICE.
You know, they have a contract with the IRS. They have one with the the military. They also, however, work with businesses. And so they work with logistics. You know, this is a company that, as mysterious as it may sound, basically takes data and helps make it more usable. So it'll pull data from disparate sources and help a company understand how to better take advantage of it or government entity.
And so that's really the the thrust of what Palantir does. It's, you know, the name is obviously a reference to a Lord of the Rings object that, you know, allows you to see places far away. This isn't a, you know, mystical company by any stretch of the imagination. It's just taking data and lining it up in a way that makes more sense.
And so that is helpful for organizations that are massive such as, you know, commercial offerings as well as the likes of the US government. And so that's where they really are shining and they're just doing something that other companies simply aren't doing as well.
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