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I don't know if you're seeing a theme here, but we have Baymax in a certain color. We have a Bionicle of a certain color. And a light fixture from the Five Below store that actually cost $5.99. So, it wasn't "five and below ." Also of a certain color. There is a certain theme here. And this topic is generally not one that makes us very happy.
This topic is related to the fact that, oh my God, the Nasdaq 100 suddenly started falling rapidly. What the hell happened? Is this the end? Are we in trouble? And all at the same time, someone literally—I've never seen a subject line like that—sends me, "Let's make a deal." In Trump's voice. They put it in quotes, hyphen—Trump's voice.
To upgrade to the Reinvest One package. That's what we have to deal with today, okay? This...this is a very special case. This is something incredible. So, why? Why did this happen today? Well, that's because OpenAI made a small mistake with their pre-IPO marketing, trying to show that they were supposedly catching up with Anthropic, which is literally tearing them apart.
So much so that this morning one of the things I mentioned to the course participants was about Anthropic and OpenAI, I think it was . Maybe it was right after, but it doesn't matter. One of Anthropic's discounts they used to offer on additional tokens has started to disappear. Look, Anthropic's pricing policy: typically Anthropic offers 20% off $100 of additional tokens, 25% off 250, 30% off 1000.
So if you go in and spend $1000 on credits, which I know sounds crazy to most people who don't run a business. I understand, I completely understand that, okay? And most people who look at AI say, “Dude, I don’t even want to pay 20 bucks a month. I'd rather use Muse for free." I understand. Believe me, I understand this from all sides.
That's why we added these modules to the Reinvest One terminal, which is coming out, where we have agents for consumers and the Reinvest business plan, which are essentially agents for businesses, whether it's property management, insurance, realtors, lenders, sellers, or whatever, right? That's a lot of content in this product that we offer.
The coupon expires tonight. But the interesting thing is that they actually secretly removed this coupon, and once you use it once, they just dump you. Don't get used to using a 30% discount. We will take her. We'll make you feel special by clicking on this. Don't worry, dude. You need us—you know what they do.
And this all leads to the disaster that happened earlier because of this article about OpenAI. But more on that in a moment. Basically, what they do is this: they say, “Don’t worry. We will help. Need extra credits? Sidney Sweeney is going to offer you a 30% discount. Just, well, push the button." And so you register, take out additional credits, and think: "Oh, I have a 30% discount." You spend them all and then you say, "Hey, Sydney, can I have some more?" And she is gone.
She was never there. It turns out she was just a mirage. It has no relation to Anthropic, as far as I know, yet. Although it seems to me that she goes into businesses "down below" and somehow supports them. I mean, we need to change the subject. But, whatever it was, the coupon is gone now. So you turn around and say, "Hey, Anthropic, there's no Baymax here." There is a project here.
And it's: "Bro, but I want more tokens." "1000 dollars." And they're turning it around. So that angered the market today. The market is like, "Oh my God, what's going on here?" Well, here's what happens: about a month and a half, no, probably a month ago, we got a report. Oh, that was at the end of September.
This was published by the same Financial Times, which is now correcting it. At the end of last month, oh, even less than a month ago . This was provided based on investor information. So, essentially, some investors received brochures or materials. And apparently some people misunderstood that OpenAI's revenue was actually $70 billion in annual recurring revenue.
Of course? Well, it turns out that those revenues are actually closer to $50 billion . Now I don't know how obvious this is. So I'm going to make this very, very obvious, because this is a pretty important thing. These companies, this whole AI bubble thing . Remember our two canaries in the coal mine, okay?
We always started with two, I don't know how to spell " canary", so let there be two cans. Let there be two cans. Obviously. By the way, if anyone wants to sell me a can, I'd love to buy it. I don't know if I can buy a can, but I like the one with Fruit Loops. Anyway, two cans. We have two cans, okay?
The most important of these is the labor market. How long can we absorb the liberations we know about? How long? And one of the things that I think is happening here is that there are businesses that are really thriving because of artificial intelligence. I think, in part, we, well , you know, I think one of the things, like Reinvest, is, like, okay, yeah, cool.
We started as a small real estate company. And, to be honest , I personally still believe that we, actually, when we raised funds in the past, we were valued as a real estate company. This has always been our thesis. Now we're expanding what we're doing with artificial intelligence, and I think it's just incredible.
The problem is that this has been going on for many companies for a long time, but the question is for how long, and no one knows. At some point, revenue continues to grow, but eventually you no longer need to hire new employees proportionally . So, for example, I think we are rapidly increasing our revenue figures.
I mean, our sales promotion that we started 3 days ago...in 3 days we almost hit seven figures for the month, it's crazy. But at the same time, the number of our employees has practically not changed. And our income is also growing. And what's really cool about this is the symbiosis. Everything is great.
Everyone is happy, you know, the canaries are singing. This is wonderful. But at some point you can continue to do it without this. And this is very important, because this is what I call...Well, there you go. Absorption of the released. In other words, people who are absorbed...or whatever . People who transfer from other companies where they are making cuts and do not have high incomes are going somewhere.
But eventually they become unnecessary. We do n't yet know when that moment will come. We are still at this stage of the AI cycle. So, the labor market indicator is still normal. But the second indicator, I've said this a million times, is OpenAI and Anthropic. And when the business says, "Hey, we're doing 50 million ARR right now." "And they said, or at least broadcasted, that they were doing 70, it feels like they knocked 29% out from under our feet." Yes?
So that explains a little bit why people are so angry today. And I understand them. I'm thinking to myself, " Seriously, man." It's 1:12. Since the first hour, I have accumulated 11 letters that I need to deal with. I should have answered these letters. Instead, I should talk about OpenAI. But that's okay.
I think this is important because AI businesses are our indicators. So we need to put this in perspective. So, we'll go through this article. We will discuss, we will talk about what it all means. Yes? But I want you to think about this . I don't think most people are fully utilizing AI yet. I think we are only just scratching the surface.
Some people use it, but I don't think everyone does. What I think is really cool is that I made this little chart—with the help of AI, but also based on my own design. I created this little diagram that I think is useful for visualization. We call it AI...well, that's obvious. This is the AI flywheel, right ?
So, AI improves your content if you are involved in creating it. AI improves your sales skills. AI improves the products you create, especially if you have a human in the loop; I think products with a person in the cycle will be very successful. This could be, for example, what we do with cybersecurity— using AI, but with a human in the loop.
Will AI reinvest in stocks? Will AI reinvest in real estate? Is AI overinvesting in research? Insurance and artificial intelligence? Property management? Legal services? Price comparison? Property inspections? Of course, this is not a humanoid robot walking around the facility. Real estate. This is documenting the suitability of facilities for habitation.
And when was the last time we did an inspection? Are all photos documented? What's missing from our to-do list? When do we need to make the next call? When do we receive notifications ? This is AI for real estate management. These are answers to their questions. This is customer support, right? All of this, this AI, fuels every aspect of a successful business.
And that's why, I think, my little startup went from being something like "well, not bad." We have 100 tenants. We have real estate. We could do a lot . And then AI comes along, and you realize: wow, we can do so much more with fewer people. So we actually cut some of the administrative staff. We simply did n't need them anymore.
I mean, God bless them . I know that many of them have, you know, other opportunities, which I'm very grateful for. And we are always ready to help people move on. But since then, we've hired significantly more people than we've laid off, thanks to the developments we 're doing now, as we've added this software direction.
And it's just incredibly good. Now, having said that, you know, like I said about the income, how long will it last? So every time something comes along that makes people nervous, like, okay, income could go up, that's great. But will both " indicators" continue to work? Whenever there is concern about OpenAI's revenue or jobs, it makes people worry.
That's why it made the market nervous today. The fact that their performance turned out to be lower than expected. This figure, along with figures for OpenAI's competitor, Anthropic, is the most important indicator of overall demand for AI. Yes, these are not agents. Of course? I'm really not trying to criticize AMD.
I'm a big AMD fan. We predicted their breakout at 456. We were very bullish on AMD shares. We kept our finger on the pulse of AMD in our alpha reports back at the 250 level, even during that breakout. I do n't remember exactly where that line was. So AMD has been fantastic , but this recent hype around generative AI is a bit overblown, because AMD's valuation is probably double the valuation of many other chipmakers that will be very important for generative AI.
There's a lot of hype around processors, but remember that AMD's big money now comes from cutting-edge processors , not the everyday ones needed for Meta Muse or basic tasks. So there are certain risks. So, I made a full video about this, breaking down some of the risks to CPU stocks due to artificial intelligence.
You can watch it on the channel. But what we're watching here is generally that if one of the " canaries in the mine" gets sick, the market starts selling off. So, is one of the canaries sick? Well, I'll answer that: no. This person, Jonah, posted Ticker Trends. Ticker Trends provides useful data. And they tracked the trends in the annual recurring revenue of this company.
And there are some questions about the difference between gross and net income. So, for example, Ticker Trends used pure metrics, and maybe some people got confused by the gross numbers and so on. It doesn't matter. The bottom line is that this is a certain growth trajectory that people predict for Open AI.
And while that looks like pretty nice cumulative growth, which it is, the percentage growth rate is slowing. And that's what makes people nervous. It's like when you draw graphs and say, "Oh, token consumption has increased significantly." "Yes, token consumption increased 50 times from '24 to '25." And then Google at their IO event in 2026 announced quadrillions.
And they're like, "Oh, from the 25th to the 26th we're already at the quadrillion level." Perfectly. "But this is no longer a 50-fold increase, but a 6-fold one." This is still very good, but the growth rate is decreasing . This is the same reason why companies like Micron are having problems—not because they're a bad company that's not growing, but because a company like Micron is dealing with a big numbers problem where you ask, "Hey, why, when is this going to go up again ?" Why does it seem like she continues to stand still?
And that's because, while the P/E and PEG ratios are very low, even the forward PEG ratios are also low. And growth in percentage terms is expected to level off or even decline. So every time we see potential underwriters of the AI bubble start to give up positions, people get very nervous. And we saw that nervousness today, as well as some of the upsides and downsides that happened today from a technical perspective.
First, when this news broke, we saw the Nasdaq fall from 754 by almost 10 points, actually almost 11 points, to 743. That's a very steep drop. Very sharp. So, I would say the recovery was not bad. But the bad thing is that we still fell 1.34% on a day when yields actually fell. So take a look at this.
And we have it right here. Let's look at profitability. My forecast for Treasury bonds was that 227 was the peak. We're literally at the 227 mark. So, so far, so good. I know sometimes we bounce back a little , but it's my opinion that the peak has actually been reached. And one of the reasons I say that is because I've noticed that the rise in the 10- year Treasury yield has slowed significantly.
We discussed this yesterday, so I don't think we need to repeat ourselves, but it's worth considering: while the slope of the line was really starting to be a concern, it has since leveled off quite a bit. And that's good. But on such a day, we still fell by 1.3% and now we have pushed back from this ceiling.
Now, what's really interesting is that 748.65 was in our Alpha report this morning. This has been in our Alpha report for the past two weeks. This was a breakout point for the Nasdaq 100 to hit our next target, as was Palantir $200, and then a breakout after that—that's in our sights for short- to medium-term trading ideas for our course participants.
And we do it every day in Alpha membership, you know that. Although technically it's a bit of a worry, and I think it's because I'm going on vacation tomorrow. You know, another thing that's in our Alpha report is Kevin's vacation calendar. But in any case, we have already deviated from this line twice.
And a lot of people who are here for the first time might think, "Oh, Kevin, you just added that line after it happened." But even if you just go back and watch this morning's public live broadcast, you'll see that line was there. And the fact that we deviated from this line, roughly speaking, exactly twice, almost three times—5 cents here, 11 cents there—is not ideal.
Since yields have fallen by five basis points, I would like us to break through this level. And that's what we also talked about, and I'm not saying this to claim that we're always right. I mean, I didn't think we'd lose 748. I also didn't think we'd get a bad report from the " flare" today, did I? So let's be frank.
This is bad . I want to emphasize this. I'm not saying everything is perfect. But this morning and yesterday we were saying: guess who feels good when this money-sucking thing starts? This is not SpaceX. SpaceX is one of those that sucks. And that's not necessarily a bad thing. It just means they need to raise money to support the AI chip business, right ?
They suck money like Luigi in Luigi's Mansion. They pull coins out of every crevice. They shake vases. They, you know, they lift the cushions on the sofas, right? And SpaceX fell by about how much? By 14, 13 percent? I mean, we're down 15 points in just the last few days. And what did they announce here?
Oh yeah, we might have to raise $40 billion . Well, of course. Of course, this was evident from their balance sheet. They don't have the money to spend 420 billion. Of course, we know that. But the crazy thing is, there is one company that doesn't "suck." She just soars upwards. Apple. During the same period when others are “sucking”, Apple is holding at 332.
As soon as others start “ sucking”, Apple starts growing rapidly. Because they don't collect money. So this all comes back to concerns about cyclical financing. My God, the bubble is about to burst. My God, this is the end. We all have a problem. Mhm, let's continue reading the Financial Times article, and then I'll give my opinion on whether this is the " kiss of death" for OpenAI or not.
We'll talk about it. So, US stocks fell sharply after the Financial Times report on Thursday, extending losses since the start of the season, with the Nasdaq down 1.7%. Yes, blah blah blah. So, let's see. The discrepancy arose from attempts by OpenAI's own investors to make a direct comparison. Oh, what is this?
SpaceX agrees to acquire a nationwide portfolio of 800 MHz low-frequency spectrum licenses. Hmm. Low range. What is needed to enter the premises? There is one that is needed for cellular communication to work...what range carries communication to homes? Low-frequency or mid-frequency? This is a low range.
Low-band penetrates homes better than mid-range services. The low-frequency range of 600 to 850 MHz uses longer radio waves that easily pass through exterior walls, windows, and deep into basements or interior rooms. Although the data transfer speed is lower, it provides the best chance for reliable coverage indoors and in rural areas .
Bingo. OK. So, what's on our news feed? It appears on this damn news feed, right? Bro, I have so many damn computers around me. I think I have about seven computers right now. This is so bad. Partly because they have to ...agents have to work. My agents are working, baby. They are working. This is the coolest.
I can sit here, shoot video, and then...ah, agent, your next move. Oh, okay, perfect. Let me just run my agent here. Great job. Ah...Okay, perfect. Good. We'll leave it at maximum power . I'm kidding. This is not at the maximum. This could turn out to be a waste. Let's get to this right here. What is this...that's the wrong button.
What does it say here? Oh, my God. Here it is. Report: SpaceX agrees to acquire portfolio of 800 MHz low-frequency licenses nationwide. This is to ensure that mobile phones work indoors. Is this "in the premises" written together or separately? But it doesn't matter. Okay, now it's fixed. Yes. Okay, so where did we stop?
Thanks for this damn distraction. You know what else is distracting? I'm trying to create video content here. We've been trying to talk about Open AI and how it will destroy the world for 21 minutes now. You know what else is distracting? This damn email. I mean, that's good. This is actually good. These are all wonderful and polite people who are trying to renew their subscription to reinvest because they have been loyal and wonderful course participants for a long time.
They write: " Kevin, we would like to renew your subscription." This is ...I just took this screenshot. Look at this. I couldn't even take a screenshot properly. I mean, this is just for the last, I don't know how many there are? 15 minutes? 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14...14. Oh, here comes the next one.
This is madness. In any case, okay. So, where are we with this article about Open AI? So , it is said that Oracle shares fell by almost 6%. Oh, to what level has Oracle sunk? Let me take a look, because I still think they bottomed out somewhere around 132. Wow, they're down to 135 again. Wow. Okay, interesting.
OK. So, US tech stocks fell, the divergence arose because of that, and so on. This is because the companies calculate the figures differently: Anthropic includes revenue from sales through cloud partners such as AWS, while OpenAI does not. In other words, AWS takes the total revenue and then subtracts the commissions as cost of goods sold.
OpenAI simply says, "Well, this is the net amount we get." And so investors try to add these costs to compare both companies. So, okay. This is just stupid, boring nonsense, a kind of SEC disclosure, a gibberish, a gibberish that no one wants to deal with. So let me try to explain this as simply as possible.
If you sell lemonade for $100, $100, okay? And you have a guy with a sign, okay? The guy on the street corner. The guy with the sign, okay? Which tells you, "Hey, there are lemons over there." The lemonade is over there. "You'll pay this fool 10 bucks, okay?" OpenAI or Anthropic is essentially saying , "Hey, we got $100 in revenue, and this idiot is what we call a "cog" in the mechanism, the cost of production." Cogs ( cost).
Do you understand? Cogs, like a gear mechanism in a wheel or a clock, I don't know, whatever. Okay. OpenAI does it a little differently. They say the guy with the sign actually collects this revenue for us. So he's not really here. Okay? The guy with the sign is here. And he collects $110, or actually, in this case it would be $100, so it would be the same.
He collects $100 and gives us $ 90. So our income is $90. Okay. So to compare Anthropic to OpenAI, you have to make a bunch of adjustments, and it all ends up looking very closed, and then you take all this circular mass and you divide it into little slices that are too small to understand what's going on, and you sell them to companies like, you know, BlackRock, or maybe you don't like BlackRock, so you go to Blackstone, or maybe you prefer letters because you don't want to know, and you go to someone like KKR, because, you know, KKR is starting to look pretty much like KKR.
The point is, we all know this is nonsense. It's just not ready to launch yet. So, it's all just one big misunderstanding . It's like someone forgot that Kevin is going on vacation tomorrow, or I don't know, someone forgot that the coupon expires tonight, or someone was like, like, like this person here.
I meant I don't know how to pronounce your name, I tried my best . Hello, I would like to renew my subscription. I have an old membership . Can I use the same email address to renew? 129 literally just arrived 60 seconds ago. You see, I need to get this over with and start helping, because, you know, we have a lot of people buying this upgrade, because I think we're getting close to our seven-figure mark, which is great.
Uh, in short, I need to get to the bottom of this. Oh my God, Kevin, my God, OpenAI later told investors that its annual...I do n't even know what I was saying anymore. OpenAI later told investors that its annual recurring revenue had grown by more than 70% since July, leading to figures of around $70 billion, which the company did not dispute.
That's right, the company was actually silent, but other people were talking about it, right? And you know, it's not that important. Okay, so you have, however, a new presentation that shows about $30 billion in annual revenue in July. As a private company, OpenAI is not required to regularly disclose its financial statements.
Yes, we know that. So, technically, just because some people at X are spreading these rumors or the Financial Times is spreading them, people don't... These companies are not obligated to come out and respond to every false claim. Solace Seduction says, "Oh no, you went live again. I missed that." That's why you need to download the Meet Kevin app and you will have notifications.
YouTube won't send you all notifications. YouTube is like, "Kevin, Kevin , too many notifications. We don't want people deleting YouTube." Like, find this. Bro, I swear, I thought those were attack planes. I saw it out of the corner of my eye, from that helicopter angle, and I was like, "What are the stormtroopers doing here?" I'm like, "Oh my god." I also rewatched The Walking Dead, and we're currently at the part with the Commonwealth stormtroopers.
No spoilers. But I will say one thing: Lucille is coming out this Halloween, baby. We were talking about OpenAI, right? This is all autism. The creator of ChatGPT is in talks with investors about a new round of private funding, valuing the company at $1.4 trillion. That's why they...Oh, so they're going to do another fundraiser before going public.
Of course, that's normal. And they need to, frankly, catch up a little with Anthropic, which I think they're trying to do, especially with dot. They can make calls for you. You can do really powerful things there. But, anyway, it also has the support of tech groups, and yes, we know, it doesn't matter.
Unprofitable. However, the company postponed plans to go public due to the threat of powerful AI. This is complete nonsense. They shouldn't have broadcast it. This is a complete lie. The company has since shelved those plans to go public due to growing concerns about the threat posed by powerful AI.
This is marketing for dummies. Our product is so good. We are actually going to sacrifice our profits for the good of people and all of humanity. By the way, if you want to subscribe to our newsletter, the link is below. This is marketing. That's all it is . This is marketing. Whenever greed meets right action , you have a kind of coincidence.
Okay? It's very convenient when your greedy little scum coincides with "we're just doing the right thing." Let 's be honest, one is stronger than the other. They just coincided by chance, and it's called branding. Wow, it's amazing how this works. So, in any case, it's stupid. Do you know why they are actually postponing their IPO?
Because they want to let Dario step on the mines first. They want to send that idiot through a minefield to see what to avoid, so that everyone at Anthropic steps on the mines, but OpenAI doesn't. They are too afraid to go first. They don't have the courage to step into a minefield . Especially after what happened with SpaceX.
Well, man. How many memes has this puppy taken off? 125 bucks or whatever . And you know, I mean, before the IPO, I was like, "Dude, if you can take it at the IPO price—great. But other than that, I'd wait and see where it stabilizes, because I think it's going to go down 30 %. Oh my god, it fell 30% from its IPO price, and it fell even more before that.
You can watch my videos. Since then, I've been saying, "Hey, you know, the bottom, yeah, to be fair , when Leopold was liquidated, it was about 104, but I think a more sustainable line for SpaceX is about 132. And I actually think the company is much more profitable now than it was at the IPO. So, you know, I'm not ashamed of that.
Don't get me wrong. But at the same time, what does all of this mean about OpenAI and all of this nonsense? Okay? What does all of this nonsense mean? Well, what it really means is that people misunderstood what revenue should be and how it's going to be calculated . It doesn't really mean that we have a How do you put it?
It doesn't really mean that the canary got sick. It means that some fool looked at the canary and thought it was flying and levitating , and then ran out of the mine and was like, "Yo, the canary is levitating. She is so good. "And then someone comes in and says, 'Dude, that was complete nonsense.'" This canary does not levitate.
She sings, but she doesn't levitate. "This is canary disease. Not yet . I'll be the first to tell you. How much do I have to pay Kevin to stop talking about Reinvest? So, the rumor is that if you go to reinvest1.com and sign up, you get lifetime access to my silence. The rumor is, I can't confirm, I can't confirm or deny.
But from what I understand, the rumor is that once you get the alpha membership, the , 9 courses, live streams, the H&T AI plan for consumers and businesses, you stop hearing this pitch. It's really pretty incredible. Um. Yeah, if only there was some monk who could convert sound. Did 're talking about we were tol.
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